Ovechkin, Datsyuk and 2007-08 WAR

[wetcoast]

Datsyuk spent between 54-64% of his ice time in 07-08 with Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Rafalski, and Holmstrom. It's hard to find a more advantageous situation than that.

Do you have a source?

My bet is that Ovechkin spent alot of time with Backstrom, Semin, Green, Kozlov, Nylander.

 

[wetcoast]

So what it isn't baseball? The concept applies to any sport.

In baseball there is offensive and defensive WAR and then the 2 are combined.

Also batters and pitchers are isolated and more statically responsible for both metrics.

In the example of WAR in this thread there isn't that same metric, ie isolated offense and defense combined as part of the hockey metric is a team one as players never score in isolated situations, except on penalty shots and the shootout..

Also the biggest difference between the 2 is the shooting difference and goals and they is an allowance for TOI but not for shot totals or shooting %.

In the calculation for WAR the author uses 3 different calculations for goal scoring and much like the goals created metric on hockey reference it has the problem of counting the same metric (goal scoring) more than once.

Hockey and baseball are basically much different games and to borrow a baseball metric and apply it to hockey is problematic.

That being said I applaud the effort but hockey is harder to break down statiscally than baseball.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

For all the people who didn't get to watch Datsyuk every night, he was magical.

IMO better player than Crosby.

 

[Aladyyn]

In baseball there is offensive and defensive WAR and then the 2 are combined.

Also batters and pitchers are isolated and more statically responsible for both metrics.

In the example of WAR in this thread there isn't that same metric, ie isolated offense and defense combined as part of the hockey metric is a team one as players never score in isolated situations, except on penalty shots and the shootout..

Also the biggest difference between the 2 is the shooting difference and goals and they is an allowance for TOI but not for shot totals or shooting %.

In the calculation for WAR the author uses 3 different calculations for goal scoring and much like the goals created metric on hockey reference it has the problem of counting the same metric (goal scoring) more than once.

Hockey and baseball are basically much different games and to borrow a baseball metric and apply it to hockey is problematic.

That being said I applaud the effort but hockey is harder to break down statiscally than baseball.

Check out the WAR on evolving-hockey.com, it deals with a lot of those issues

 

[wetcoast]

Check out the WAR on evolving-hockey.com, it deals with a lot of those issues

Thanks I will do that.

Part of my response was to the article the OP linked using his methods and the other part was as a fan of both baseball and hockey.

After having a quick look at evolving hockey they seem to have a better basis for their WAR metric.

 

[Fantomas]

Check out the WAR on evolving-hockey.com, it deals with a lot of those issues

I don't know what this website is, but it's incomprehensible.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Do you have a source?

My bet is that Ovechkin spent alot of time with Backstrom, Semin, Green, Kozlov, Nylander.

Naturalstattrick.com

And those players you listed for OV were either very young or old, not two HOFers in their prime.

 

[wetcoast]

Naturalstattrick.com

And those players you listed for OV were either very young or old, not two HOFers in their prime.

Lidstrom was 37, Rafalski was 34, Holmstrom was 35. Semin was fresh from a 38 goal season, I really don't see much of a difference there in terms of creating offense.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Wow. You believe that’s how it works?

That you have to be on the ice to score?

Yup, sure do. Not sure what sport you're watching.

 

[Regal]

Finished high in player polls yet can't get any lindsay nominations.

Players pretty clearly focus on points for the Lindsay as well, and there's a big difference between best player and best season. Also, most people agree that the Ovechkin/Crosby/Malkin/McDavid types are better, but the argument is that these guys should be considered in the tier below. Also, Datsyuk was a Lindsay finalist in '09

 

[heysmilinstrange]

That you have to be on the ice to score?

Yup, sure do. Not sure what sport you're watching.

The relationship between points scored and ice time is much more complex than you're assuming.

 

[Aladyyn]

The relationship between points scored and ice time is much more complex than you're assuming.

Yes, Pavel Datsyuk was actually playing to his absolute limit and wouldn't even score in any extra ice time he would have gotten

 

[daver]

Yes, Pavel Datsyuk was actually playing to his absolute limit and wouldn't even score in any extra ice time he would have gotten

Yes, and the Wings and the Caps had actually the exact same caliber of support players so there is no way that OV would not be even more productive on the Wings or Datsyuk would have been less productive on the Caps.

At the end of the day, Datysuk's advantage in 2-way play is not worth 15% to 20% of the offense he gave up to OV.

 

[Midnight Judges]

This is one of the many instances where the traditional point system is utterly misleading in terms of who was doing the actual heavy lifting on offense.

In this instance people will lazily look at the point totals and conclude Datsyuk was 87% of the offensive player Ovechkin was.

Ovechkin had more than twice as many goals as Datsyuk in 2008 despite being surrounded by a clearly inferior supporting cast (Red Wings had more goals for than the Caps).

Ovechkin also had 36% more primary points than Datsyuk despite Dats putting up a very respectable 75.

 

[vladdy16]

A lot of people in this thread seem to think hockey is basketball. It's a nonsense conversation to talk about hockey players as if the footage and actual contests and competitions are an aside. Let alone talking about production as a scaling metric, and defensive and non scoring impacts as frivolous. BS Pop Hockey Talk imo.

Datsyuk and Ovechkin are some of the most 'above replacement level' players imaginable, there's no alternative or more elaborate take to be made...

 

[authentic]

What’s interesting is that Evolving Hockey’s WAR model has Datsyuk as far and away the best player in the 2007-present era. I wish I had seen more of his prime but I think it’s possible that he truly was one of the greatest players of all time.

I've been saying this since the late 2000s. It was pretty evident watching him when healthy from 2007-13/14 roughly. Even in 14/15 he was 6th in PPG at 36 with a great two way game still and Abdelkader and Helm as his wingers, Lidstrom was long gone by then too. I believe people who don't think he compares well to Fedorov for example are flat out wrong, and yes I also watched Fedorov's prime as well.

 

[enthusiast]

shouts out derek roy, who was actually good before he fell off a cliff

 

[authentic]

3. 3 empty net goals.

And of course the Capitals allowed way fewer goals than they scored with Ovechkin on the ice. They scored 150 goals with Ovi on the ice, and allowed 67. Or put another way, Ovi scored 65 goals, and the Capitals allowed 67 with him on the ice.


That's because it's unsubstantiated nonsense.

Wait a minute here, he came 2 goals away from scoring as much as his team allowed with him on the ice all by himself? I wonder who else has him beat in this stat? I would think Gretzky allowed more than 92 for example in his best season...

 

[authentic]

Yeah. On pure offensive talent alone, I genuinely think he could have smashed 100+ points in most seasons he played if he played in a more offensive system. That stickhandling, passing and vision combination is just too elite to pass out. His best players were separated and Babcock to this day still runs that trash "let's split both PP" garbage.

Let's not forget how good his skating was and how strong he was on the puck. In his best seasons in 2007-08 and 08-09 he saw 2 minutes less powerplay time per game than Crosby and Ovechkin. Yeah it's no wonder he didn't score an additional 10-15 points.

 

[authentic]

Datsyuk averaged 1:48 of PK time that season.

That's a fair bit, and he averaged 2 minutes less powerplay time.

 

[authentic]

Zetterberg from 05-06 to 13-14 (9 seasons)
619 games played 633 points, while being a top 15 selke pick 7 times, not quite Toews winning it, but a top defensive forward in the league.

Toews from 08-09 to 16-17 (9seasons)
653 games played 568 points, 7 top 5 selke finishes(1 win), 1 outside 15.

He had more than a season or two.

Zetterberg at his peak > Toews. And Toews is generally underrated around here.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Wait a minute here, he came 2 goals away from scoring as much as his team allowed with him on the ice all by himself? I wonder who else has him beat in this stat? I would think Gretzky allowed more than 92 for example in his best season...

That's an amazing statistic (for nearly every goal against he was on the ice for, he scored a goal himself). Among 50+ goal scorers, Ovechkin did that twice (50 goals scored vs being on the ice for 45 goals against in 2010, and 50 goals scored vs being on the ice for 49 goals against in 2016).

Guy Lafleur did it twice, as did Stephane Richer.

Mike Bossy did it four times - 1978, 1979, 1981 and 1982. The most ridiculous was in 1979, when he scored 69 goals, and was on the ice for only 41 against all season. Mike Bossy was nearly "even" across his whole career - he scored 573 goals, and was on the ice for 588 goals against.

Reggie Leach scored 106 goals in two consecutive seasons, while being on the ice for just 57 goals against. Thanks, Bobby Clarke.

Before anyone gets too impressed by this - every player on this list played virtually no time on the penalty kill. It's much tougher to keep the goals against low when playing on the PK (something none of these players did much of).

 

[authentic]

That's an amazing statistic (for nearly every goal against he was on the ice for, he scored a goal himself). Among 50+ goal scorers, Ovechkin did that twice (50 goals scored vs being on the ice for 45 goals against in 2010, and 50 goals scored vs being on the ice for 49 goals against in 2016).

Guy Lafleur did it twice, as did Stephane Richer.

Mike Bossy did it four times - 1978, 1979, 1981 and 1982. The most ridiculous was in 1979, when he scored 69 goals, and was on the ice for only 41 against all season. Mike Bossy was nearly "even" across his whole career - he scored 573 goals, and was on the ice for 588 goals against.

Reggie Leach scored 106 goals in two consecutive seasons, while being on the ice for just 57 goals against. Thanks, Bobby Clarke.

Before anyone gets too impressed by this - every player on this list played virtually no time on the penalty kill. It's much tougher to keep the goals against low when playing on the PK (something none of these players did much of).

We could also perhaps thank Potvin and Trottier for the low goals against Bossy had. Those are extremely impressive though no matter how you slice it.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Zetterberg at his peak > Toews. And Toews is generally underrated around here.

The reason Toews is underrated is because he is a pretty good goal scorer and a very good primary point getter but most people lazily look at the traditional scoring system and all they see is Toews being the 36th most productive offensive player on a per game basis since the lockout (min 270 games). IMO 12th is probably closer to indicative.

 

[Henkka]

Datsyuk spent between 54-64% of his ice time in 07-08 with Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Rafalski, and Holmstrom. It's hard to find a more advantageous situation than that.

Feel free to import Datsyuk's WAR from his days after Lidström retired.

It's still crazy good for an older guy past his prime.

Quite sure Pavel's last 8 NHL-season WAR is the best, even though half of the seasons happened without Lidström.