OV vs Crosby: beyond secondary assists

[kugelbahn]

I am big fan of OV vs Crosby debate and stats comparisons.
So its a common knowledge that OV trumps Crosby in goals:
Goals 705 to 462, or 0.61 vs 0.47 goals per game
And Crosby dominates in secondary and primary assists:
Primary 500 to 351, or 0.52 vs 0.31 primary assists per game
Secondary 301 to 219, or 0.31 vs 0.19 secondary assists per game

What is surprising is that OV dominates in "beyond secondary assists" or "no points awarded plays", whatever you call it.
Those could be calculated as team's goals fared while player is on ice minus player's points (TGF - P in hockey-reference.com terms).
So it is effectively sum of A3+A4+NoAssist. (There are realistically four teammates who could have touched the puck before a goal).
OV leads by 552 to 361, or 0.48 to 0.37 per game in those.

Unfortunately NHL does not track assists beyond secondary and it is not clear how many NoAssists vs A3+A4 are there.

For completeness here are team's goals fared stats where it is mixed result:
OV leads in absolute numbers: 1828 to 1624 TGF and Crosby is ahead in per game stats 1.65 vs 1.59

So what do we learn from it, OV has better teammates on average throughout his career?
Backstrom is good player but not known for his goal scoring with only one 30 goals campaign, Semin with two 30 goals and one 40 goals campaigns, Green.
On the other hand Crosby had Kunitz with three 30 goals campaign, Guntzel with 40 goals, Malkin on PP and in two-headed monster situations, Letang.

Or is it something else like OV drawing more coverage, opening up space, where teammates have more opportunities to score where OV is not directly involved.

All stats from hockey-reference.com

Click to read more...

 

[Zuluss]

This is consistent with how OV has been used on PP and in general when Caps gain the zone - triggerman who draws a defenseman and either scores off a pass or opens it up for others.

I would split the sample into ES vs. PP and then additionally in 12/13 and later and the years before that. The hypothesis is that (TGF-P)/P is the highest on PP in 12/13 and later and then second-highest probably at ES in 12/13 and later.

I would also expect a negative correlation between (TGF-P)/P and PP assists and probably assists as well as a share of total points - both in the full sample and in 12/13 and later.

 

[Thenameless]

Beyond points, assists, and goals:

Ovechkin: 1 Stanley Cup, 0 Olympic Gold Medals
Crosby: 3 Stanley Cups, 2 Olympic Gold Medals

 

[txpd]

Beyond points, assists, and goals:

Ovechkin: 1 Stanley Cup, 0 Olympic Gold Medals
Crosby: 3 Stanley Cups, 2 Olympic Gold Medals

A serious question. When during Ovechkin's career has his team been given any chance at a gold medal at the Olympics? When has team Canada been less than a solid favorite?

The Cup thing works for now. The Olympic thing is a joke

 

[MXD]

A serious question. When during Ovechkin's career has his team been given any chance at a gold medal at the Olympics?

2006 and 2010.
It's like people are forgetting that Russia, and not Canada, got the bye to the QF's in 2010. And Russia had beaten Canada in 2006.

 

[Thenameless]

A serious question. When during Ovechkin's career has his team been given any chance at a gold medal at the Olympics? When has team Canada been less than a solid favorite?

The Cup thing works for now. The Olympic thing is a joke

A serious question. Who is considered the better player?

 

[txpd]

2006 and 2010.
It's like people are forgetting that Russia, and not Canada, got the bye to the QF's in 2010. And Russia had beaten Canada in 2006.

LOL. Russia was the favorite to win in Vancouver? Come on

 

[MXD]

LOL. Russia was the favorite to win in Vancouver? Come on

They were not favorites, but it's safe to say it was not a roster that screams "bowing out in QF". They had a CHANCE at a Gold Medal (though they did get unlucky with the draw).

 

[Midnight Judges]

So what do we learn from it, OV has better teammates on average throughout his career?
Backstrom is good player but not known for his goal scoring with only one 30 goals campaign, Semin with two 30 goals and one 40 goals campaigns, Green.
On the other hand Crosby had Kunitz with three 30 goals campaign, Guntzel with 40 goals, Malkin on PP and in two-headed monster situations, Letang.

Or is it something else like OV drawing more coverage, opening up space, where teammates have more opportunities to score where OV is not directly involved.

All stats from hockey-reference.com

It's definitely not the first one. Crosby spends a ton of ice time with the third best player of the generation (Malkin). The Pens had no problem making the playoffs without Crosby in 2012, and they had a .714 winning percentage in extended time without Crosby this season. They've been a very good team with and without Sid.

Ovechkin definitely opens up space for whomever is on his line. The greatest goal scorer of all time is always going to garner lots of attention. It's no coincidence that whoever plays C on his line gets a big bump in productivity, be it Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Ribeiro, etc. No player in the world dictates penalty kill strategy like Ovie, and it boosts guys like Oshie, Backstrom, Carlson. Those guys get 4 on 3's on the PP.

I think what else it shows is Ovechkin doesn't take faceoffs. Some centers get roughly 1800 faceoffs per year. If they are average, that's 900 extra touches - each one a chance for an assist. You could subtract the number of faceoff wins that go to the left wing, say, 300 or so, for a net difference of 600 touches per full season where a C gets a chance for an assist despite not doing anything to really deserve it.

 

[txpd]

They were not favorites, but it's safe to say it was not a roster that screams "bowing out in QF". They had a CHANCE at a Gold Medal (though they did get unlucky with the draw).

Ok..

 

[MXD]

Quoted post edited.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

2006 and 2010.
It's like people are forgetting that Russia, and not Canada, got the bye to the QF's in 2010. And Russia had beaten Canada in 2006.

A team who's bottom 6 and much of its blue line consisted of KHL players was never a favorite over Canada, never.

 

[MXD]

A team who's bottom 6 and much of its blue line consisted of KHL players was never a favorite over Canada, never.

You aren't a very good reader.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Beyond points, assists, and goals:

Ovechkin: 1 Stanley Cup, 0 Olympic Gold Medals
Crosby: 3 Stanley Cups, 2 Olympic Gold Medals

Jean-Guy Talbot has won 7 cups, so I guess he trumps them both COMBINED!

 

[kugelbahn]

Since we are discussing regular season stats it makes more sense to mention regular season team accomplishments:
OV 9 division titles and 3 presidents trophies vs Crosby 4 division titles and 0 presidents trophies.
Let's not digress to a beaten to death shiny things comparison.

Anyway if we split TGF-P to power play and non-power play, OV has edge in both
0.25 and 0.23 OV vs 0.18 and 0.19 Crosby correspondingly TGF-P per Game
Probably nature of center position peaking in A1 and A2, vs winger having more G and tail of the spectrum contributions. Center is in the middle connecting plays, winning draws like ppl mentioned,

Little graph is always better than dry numbers:

 

[StaalForOne]

It's definitely not the first one. Crosby spends a ton of ice time with the third best player of the generation (Malkin). The Pens had no problem making the playoffs without Crosby in 2012, and they had a .714 winning percentage in extended time without Crosby this season. They've been a very good team with and without Sid.

Ovechkin definitely opens up space for whomever is on his line. The greatest goal scorer of all time is always going to garner lots of attention. It's no coincidence that whoever plays C on his line gets a big bump in productivity, be it Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Ribeiro, etc. No player in the world dictates penalty kill strategy like Ovie, and it boosts guys like Oshie, Backstrom, Carlson. Those guys get 4 on 3's on the PP.

I think what else it shows is Ovechkin doesn't take faceoffs. Some centers get roughly 1800 faceoffs per year. If they are average, that's 900 extra touches - each one a chance for an assist. You could subtract the number of faceoff wins that go to the left wing, say, 300 or so, for a net difference of 600 touches per full season where a C gets a chance for an assist despite not doing anything to really deserve it.

At Even strength that is not the case at all. PP yes, but they are almost always apart even strength.

 

[kugelbahn]

At Even strength that is not the case at all. PP yes, but they are almost always apart even strength.

Almost is a relative thing, two-headed monster is real.
Malkin assisted on 44 Crosby ES goals, here are top 10 players to whom Malkin assisted at ES

Crosby assisted on 45 Malin ES goals, here are top 10 players to whom Crosby assisted at ES

Credit to hockey-reference.com

 

[StaalForOne]

Almost is a relative thing, two-headed monster is real.
Malkin assisted on 44 Crosby ES goals, here are top 10 players to whom Malkin assisted at ES

View attachment 333815

Crosby assisted on 45 Malin ES goals, here are top 10 players to whom Crosby assisted at ES

View attachment 333819

Credit to hockey-reference.com

44 Assists over 13 seasons helps my case, not yours.

For comparison sake here is the same table for OV and Backstrom:

73 Backstrom Goals assisted by Ovechkin

152 Ovechkin goals assisted by Backstrom

 

[kugelbahn]

44 Assists over 13 seasons helps my case, not yours.

For comparison sake here is the same table for OV and Backstrom:

73 Backstrom Goals assisted by Ovechkin

152 Ovechkin goals assisted by Backstrom

My post was reply to your "almost always apart" comment. Crosby is "historically" Malkin's "favorite target" at ES, this is a surprise. Plus which they each missed 190+ games in last 14 years, I suspect mostly taking turns.

Just 152 out of 384 OVs ES goals in last 13 years were Backstrom assists? Meh, I expected more. Good post anyway, more data points is always better. I think linemates are pretty much even and both proven to perform well with whoever.

OV having better "beyond secondary assists" numbers is unexpected for me and I do not think linemates quality is an answer.

 

[kugelbahn]

del

 

[daver]

My post was reply to your "almost always apart" comment. Crosby is "historically" Malkin's "favorite target" at ES, this is a surprise. Plus which they each missed 190+ games in last 14 years, I suspect mostly taking turns.

Just 152 out of 384 OVs ES goals in last 13 years were Backstrom assists? Meh, I expected more. Good post anyway, more data points is always better. I think linemates are pretty much even and both proven to perform well with whoever.

OV having better "beyond secondary assists" numbers is unexpected for me and I do not think linemates quality is an answer.

When you try to dismiss Backstrom's 3.5 times more ES assists, you clearly don't want it to be the answer.

Love to see a list of their ES linemates for their careers. I suspect the quality of linemates argument becomes very significant.

 

[MXD]

I am big fan of OV

You probably should've stopped right there for a more accurate portrait.

 

[StaalForOne]

My post was reply to your "almost always apart" comment. Crosby is "historically" Malkin's "favorite target" at ES, this is a surprise. Plus which they each missed 190+ games in last 14 years, I suspect mostly taking turns.

Just 152 out of 384 OVs ES goals in last 13 years were Backstrom assists? Meh, I expected more. Good post anyway, more data points is always better. I think linemates are pretty much even and both proven to perform well with whoever.

OV having better "beyond secondary assists" numbers is unexpected for me and I do not think linemates quality is an answer.

This is only because of the sample size. Kessel was second by 13 assists, despite playing in Pittsburgh for 9 less seasons (4 seasons total for Kessel).

James Neal is 3rd, 1 point behind Kessel, and also only played in Pittsburgh for 4 seasons, one of which was a small season as he was acquired at the TDL.

 

[MXD]

Almost is a relative thing, two-headed monster is real.
Malkin assisted on 44 Crosby ES goals, here are top 10 players to whom Malkin assisted at ES

View attachment 333815

Crosby assisted on 45 Malin ES goals, here are top 10 players to whom Crosby assisted at ES

View attachment 333819

Credit to hockey-reference.com

This would be proving the point opposite of the one you're trying to make due to amount of years.

EDIT : The post above makes the exact same point.

 

[daver]

LOL. Russia was the favorite to win in Vancouver? Come on

You cannot paint them as any other than under achievers. It's not like Team Canada was rolling over the competition that year.