Post-Game Talk: Out played Jets lose in ot

nobody imp0rtant

Registered pessimist
May 23, 2018
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17,977
Erasing unpleasant memories. Monkeying around with what makes you = you. Who knows what might happen?

I like to think of myself as an empathetic and compassionate person. Erase my memories of pain and maybe I become a real prick. :laugh:
there, the door is open.

Nope, not going through that door. :laugh: Fortunately, that company only exists in the brilliantly twisted imagination of Charlie Kaufman.
 
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Ducky10

Searching for Mark Scheifele
Nov 14, 2014
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They do if you are the team with the "relentless, high pressure forecheck".
If if the Jets are forechecking like they can, there are still times they are going to get hemmed by a persistent, well organized forecheck. It's just the ebbs and flows of the game.
 

Jets 31

This Dude loves the Jets and GIF's
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Mar 3, 2015
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I've said this a couple of times this season already but get Scheif and Weezler off the PK !!We don't need them doing this , we have lots of forwards that can do the job , Tanev , Copp , Lowry , Little , Applebees , even Roslovic . It would cut Scheif and Weezler's ice times down and they wouldn't have to stand and block shots .
 

wpgallday1960

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Jun 4, 2010
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Sunny St. James
let's be fair here, too. Every team other than TB has had peaks and valleys this year. I won't argue that the Jets are playing poorly right now but they can get it together at playoff time when it really matters. TB can have the President's Cup, too me that is a kiss of death.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
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Jun 10, 2014
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If if the Jets are forechecking like they can, there are still times they are going to get hemmed by a persistent, well organized forecheck. It's just the ebbs and flows of the game.

Yes, no doubt. And just as long at any one time. But less often.
 

Jets 31

This Dude loves the Jets and GIF's
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That's 2 games in row where we aren't hitting anyone either , we pounded teams all the time last season . We need Buff back at 100% and need our forwards to start banging guys . Tanev is the only guy bringing it every game .
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,428
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Winnipeg
Here's this year's Jets:
upload_2019-2-17_16-44-13.png


vs. Last year's Jets (as of Feb 27 - so pre-Stastny)
DXFZFNrUQAA__O7
 

King Woodballs

Captain Awesome
Sep 25, 2007
39,377
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Your Mind
let's be fair here, too. Every team other than TB has had peaks and valleys this year. I won't argue that the Jets are playing poorly right now but they can get it together at playoff time when it really matters. TB can have the President's Cup, too me that is a kiss of death.
Come on.... get out of here with your logic!
You know the jets are the worst team ever to play in the nhl in there 100 years of existence!
 

JetsUK

Registered User
Oct 1, 2015
6,723
14,075
Here's this year's Jets:
View attachment 187991

vs. Last year's Jets (as of Feb 27 - so pre-Stastny)
DXFZFNrUQAA__O7

Wow. Thanks for that. Also, ouch.

IIRC last year there was also a sense that Stats was brought in to take a team that could already challenge for the Cup right over the top. I seem to recall a few players noting that they felt confident in the group well before he arrived. This year they (or we) seem to be looking for a player who can right the ship and help steer the team into a strong playoff run -- different ask for a different set of circumstances.
 

Heldig

Registered User
Apr 12, 2002
16,886
10,231
BC
So, watching the game last night who on Ottawa stood out to you?

Stone, Duchene, Dzingel and Tkachuk were very good. On D, I noticed Chabot and Harpur. Anyone else stand out?
 

Turin

Registered User
Feb 27, 2018
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This is a great illustration as to why I have been saying we shouldn't be buyers at the deadline this year.

I am just shocked at how it directly matches the eye test.

Thanks for posting this

I don’t believe PoMo is an elite coach. But the Jets should still but within reason, they have too much takent in a wide open league to not go for it,
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,076
25,213
Winnipeg, MB
What are the odds St Louis finished higher than us?

Per MoneyPuck, which uses a prediction model based not just on points but on fancy stats -- so this model will echo the more realistic "process-based" evaluation of the teams, not just the standings and goal differential.

Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 8.40.02 PM.png


From here, we can calculate the sum of conditional probabilities of St. Louis finishing ahead of our position. For instance, in the 15.4% of the time Winnipeg finishes 3rd in the Central, St. Louis will have a (25.1% +32.5% = ) 57.6% chance of finishing ahead of them. This will contribute a total of 15.4% * 57.6% = 8.87% to the total probability of St. Louis finishing ahead of us.

Here are the sum of all these products.

Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 8.40.08 PM.png


So, based on this, there's a 22.03% chance that St. Louis finishes ahead of us, or odds of about 7 to 2 against, or 3.5 to 1 against.. or "+350" as the cool kids say ;)
 

Mud Turtle

Registered User
Jul 26, 2013
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This is a great illustration as to why I have been saying we shouldn't be buyers at the deadline this year.

I am just shocked at how it directly matches the eye test.

Thanks for posting this

Crazy how it matches the eye test. I remember thinking how in the first 10 games we could have easily been 2-8.
 
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AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,076
25,213
Winnipeg, MB
Boy. This post aged terribly.

Unless you think nil means 3.5 to 1.

In light of all the harsh words you and I have shared, it warms my heart that at least you still trust my math :)

To give us some measure of how the Jets have been over-performing relative to their standings, I repeated the calculations based on the SportsClubStats model, which just uses standings and goal differential.

Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 8.32.28 PM.png
Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 8.32.33 PM.png


This figure is much lower (4.32%, or about 22 to 1 against) and the difference between the two is telling.
 

AlphaLackey

Registered User
Mar 21, 2013
17,076
25,213
Winnipeg, MB
This is a great illustration as to why I have been saying we shouldn't be buyers at the deadline this year.

I am just shocked at how it directly matches the eye test.

Thanks for posting this

The reason why I think these figures argue for us being buyers at the deadline, is that this clearly shows that our potential far exceeds our performance and that doing something big to "shake things up" would absolutely be far likelier to make things better than to make things worse. For the opposite reason you might not want to make a big move when the team is playing at full capacity, I think this just shows why it's all the more important that we grab Stone and maybe Duchesne.
 

Gabe Kupari

Registered User
Jul 11, 2013
15,269
14,859
Winter is Coming
The west is wide open. All teams have struggles. Jets have been bad. Yet still 1st. Shows u that really.. If they get their shit together... They likely walk to the finals. .

Nobody else looks that good in the West
 
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ocdaddy

Registered User
Nov 3, 2013
1,479
1,220
Winnipeg
Maurice is a good color commentator and will have a job at tsn after he is done coaching the Jets.
If they lose in the 1st round I don't think he gets fired. Would be best for the team to let him go at that point but I just can't see it happen.
 

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