Our drafting past the 2nd round..

[Joey Moss]

Am I overreacting or is it fair to say our drafting past the 2nd round hasn't been good enough? Our scouting staff mainly sticks to the CHL so it's easy to think, hey these guys might end up being decent when they put up good numbers in junior but so far none of them have amounted to anything at the pro level. Aside from getting Teemu Hartikainen in the 6th round of '08, the 2008 and 2009 drafts were very very bad for late round picks. Since the 2010 draft it seems like we've all been happy with the picks post draft but even then we're seeing so many good prospects who were later round picks recently, in the NHL right now whereas ours are busting in the AHL. More importantly our picks from 2002-2007 have been brutal. We haven't found one solid player outside of the 1st round aside from Petry basically. I guess the jury is still out there on some of our recent picks but I'm just looking at some other teams in the league who have success and it's evident they have done a fantastic job with drafting past the 1st round.

Chicago
Brandon Saad (2nd rounder in 2011)- On the main roster.. looks very promising.
Andrew Shaw (5th rounder in 2011)- On the main roster.. one of the better young **** disturbers who plays with an edge
Marcus Kruger (5th rounder in 2009)- On the main roster.. good penalty killer and role player for them

Ottawa
Mark Stone (6th rounder in 2010)- In AHL, but called up a couple times.. very good prospect with size
Jakob Silfverberg (2nd rounder in 2009)- Main roster.. really good player with great future
Robin Lehner (2nd rounder in 2009)- Main roster.. elite young goalie with awesome potential
Patrick Wiercioch (2nd rounder in 2008)- Main roster.. putting up Gardiner like numbers
Zack Smith (2nd rounder in 2008)- Main roster, much like Shaw.

Los Angeles
Tyler Toffoli (2nd rounder in 2010)- AHL call up putting up numbers everywhere he plays
Kyle Clifford (2nd rounder in 2009)- Main roster, great young player with size and grit
Jordan Nolan (7th rounder in 2009)- Main roster, good 3rd/4th line energy guy
Slava Voynov (2nd rounder in 2008)- Main roster.. one of the best up and coming defenseman in the NHL
Andrei Loktionov (5th rounder in 2008)- NJ Devils main roster.. doing good for them
Wayne Simmonds (2nd rounder in 2007)- Awesome player in Philly right now
Alec Martinez (4th rounder in 2007)- Main roster, solid bottom pairing guy
Dwight King (4th rounder in 2007)- Main roster, pivotal player for SC run
Jonathan Quick (5th rounder in 2005)- Elite goalie in NHL

Boston
Ryan Spooner (2nd rounder in 2010)- AHL call up.. producing everywhere he goes; good future
Milan Lucic (2nd rounder in 2006)- elite power forward
Brad Marchand (3rd rounder in 2006)- awesome role player
Vladimir Sobotka (4th rounder in 2005)- Elite 4th liner
David Krejci (2nd rounder in 2004)- 1st line center
Kris Versteeg (5th rounder in 2004)- good player for FLA
Patrice Bergeron (2nd rounder in 2003)- 1st/2nd liner. Best defensive forward in NHL

Montreal
Brenden Gallagher (5th rounder in 2010)- Great potential; a lot like Marchand
P.K. Subban (2nd rounder in 2007)- One of the best young defenseman

I could go on and on but I think we know the point. Fact is the Oilers have never been able to add these kind of players past the 1st round, and it is holding us back. We have the most 1st round picks on our roster than any other team. The rest are Free Agent signings and trades from other organizations. If the Oilers are going to be a contender we need to be able to find gems later in the draft.

Not hard to look past this organization when we were in our glory days.. Messier, Anderson, Kurri, Tikkanen, Smith all picks past the 1st round who were obviously huge pieces to the puzzle.

Just thought it was worth a thread considering all of the elite teams in the NHL have been able to find these players, yet we haven't. This trend has got to change quick. We are expected to be contending in the next 3 years or so. This draft coming up is one we need to find a good player outside of the 1st and obviously I guess we have to hope for the best with our recent picks, although I don't see much other than Marincin.

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[Jumptheshark]

This goes to a rant I have had for awhile. Development of the guys were are drafting.

It started with Heskith and has continued with Abney--more and more we are seeing picks between 31 to 100 slowly being moved into the bust category.

Are we giving them too much coaching, too little coaching or something in between.

 

[Mr Forever]

Is drafting the problem or is developing the problem?

We've seem quite a few guys with good numbers in junior not be able to take the next step in the AHL.

We have a crop of young guys are are doing well in junior now, Musil, Gernat and Reider, but will they transition into pros or bust like Pitlick and Hamilton?

As of how Hartikainen and Musil are two of the only recent non first rounders who have shown anything.

 

[Joey Moss]

I'm not sure if Todd Nelson is doing a bad job of developing or if it's just our drafting.. either way it needs to be figured out because late round gems are always huge parts to contending teams and we don't have that yet.

 

[Beerfish]

The oilers have done poorly after the 1st round if you ask me. Remember in our years or horror we have picked at the start or near start of EVERY round which is a huge advantage.

Mitch freakin Moroz almost at the top of the 2nd round with the talent that was sitting there, head shaking.

I'm not sold on Musil. Pitlick, Hamilton look very suspect. Jury is out in Lander but I think he will help. Some lousy 3rd rounders as well.

They need at least for one of the following to become NHL';ers Pitlick, Hamilton, Martindale. None of them have shown much so far.

And before the usual crows of 'give them time!' come raining down it is my belief that guys have to show you something early even if they are not ready.

Can the guy win faceoffs, can he score, can he be very physical. A like Harti at least showed he was big and fairly physical early.

(The goalies have been disappointing as well so far.)

 

[Joey Moss]

I think the consensus for our 2nd round picks in 2011 and 2012 on this board were Boone Jenner and Matt Finn. Personally, I think we're in a much better position if we take Jenner and Finn instead of Musil and Moroz. Figures the Oilers would take one of our scouts son in Musil.

I know Musil has decent potential but Jenner is the kind of player this team lacks and he is almost surely going to be an NHL player. I'm still choked about that.

 

[CanadianHockey]

A big part of the success in Ottawa has been the paralleled systems employed by our farm and NHL squads. Last year, Luke Richardson was learning the ins and outs of the system under MacLean. This year, he's our AHL head coach, and he's implemented MacLean's structure. It basically allows the kids to learn the ropes in the AHL before coming up and filling in with the big club. It's worked phenomenally well this season, with AHL call-ups exceeding expectations.

I haven't been able to watch much of OKC, but if there's a disconnect between coaching at the two levels, that may contribute to poor prospect development and an inability to transition prospects onto the NHL roster. Given Edmonton's coaching turnover the past few seasons, it's possible the AHL systems have changed too much (instability makes it harder for players to develop), or that the AHL systems haven't changed enough (and thus are out of synch with our NHL system).

It certainly doesn't help that the Oilers scouting and drafting decisions are, at the very least, questionable in many cases (Mitch Moroz is a good example of this). I don't necessarily think it's been too bad. In a few years some of those guys we think are busts now may have turned it around. Even nabbing two regular NHLers per draft is solid drafting.

 

[joestevens29]

Is drafting the problem or is developing the problem?

We've seem quite a few guys with good numbers in junior not be able to take the next step in the AHL.

We have a crop of young guys are are doing well in junior now, Musil, Gernat and Reider, but will they transition into pros or bust like Pitlick and Hamilton?

As of how Hartikainen and Musil are two of the only recent non first rounders who have shown anything.

Two theories/comments.

1- we drafted guys that reached higher levels at younger ages, and their ceilings weren't much higher.

2 - A team like Chicago, do they really need that much from those 3? Does the other 9 players up front and then the d make them look better?


I personally will wait a bit more as we do have some guys that can still contribute, big problem is when the team is this bad it's hard to break guys in easily.

 

[Joey Moss]

Two theories/comments.

1- we drafted guys that reached higher levels at younger ages, and their ceilings weren't much higher.

2 - A team like Chicago, do they really need that much from those 3? Does the other 9 players up front and then the d make them look better?


I personally will wait a bit more as we do have some guys that can still contribute, big problem is when the team is this bad it's hard to break guys in easily.

Chicago's players are an example of a lesser extent of this but I added them because Shaw and Saad are two players with a great future. They will continue to get better and they will be a lot like the other teams players I mentioned.

 

[CanadianHockey]

Two theories/comments.

1- we drafted guys that reached higher levels at younger ages, and their ceilings weren't much higher.

2 - A team like Chicago, do they really need that much from those 3? Does the other 9 players up front and then the d make them look better?


I personally will wait a bit more as we do have some guys that can still contribute, big problem is when the team is this bad it's hard to break guys in easily.

Even if they are sheltered by Chicago's depth, it's never a bad thing to have young role players coming up and learning from those kinds of players. They can step in when injuries hit and replace parts that become too expensive to retain.

 

[joestevens29]

Chicago's players are an example of a lesser extent of this but I added them because Shaw and Saad are two players with a great future. They will continue to get better and they will be a lot like the other teams players I mentioned.

How do we know that they will get better? Maybe they hit their peaks earlier, especially in Shaw's case with being a 5th rounder from just 2 years ago.

 

[joestevens29]

Even if they are sheltered by Chicago's depth, it's never a bad thing to have young role players coming up and learning from those kinds of players. They can step in when injuries hit and replace parts that become too expensive to retain.

Oh I agree, but the fact is they are very small players on a team with a lot of talent. Look at Colin Fraser, horrid here. Goes to LA, looks like a decent 4th liner.

When you actually have a talented team it's not hard for rookies to appear decent.

 

[Master Lok]

Am I overreacting or is it fair to say our drafting past the 2nd round hasn't been good enough?

I could go on and on but I think we know the point. Fact is the Oilers have never been able to add these kind of players past the 1st round, and it is holding us back.

Yes you have a tendency to overreact.

It's not a fact that the Oilers have "Never been able to add these kind of players past the 1st round..." Its your opinion. how about putting out some real facts instead of just your opinion?

Since you went all the way back to 2003 (for the Bruins Patrice Bergeron), lets try that.

2003 - 7th round Kyle Brodziak, who is currently playing the 2nd or 3rd line centre for Minnesota.

2003 - 9th round Troy Bodie - has had cups of coffee in Anaheim, Carolina etc.

2006 - 2nd round, Jeff Petry. Currently a top 4 dman for the Oilers. Pretty good result.

2006 - 3nd round, Theo Peckham, 7th dman on the Oilers.


In 2007 & 2008, we traded away our 2nd and 3rd round picks.

2008 - 6th round, Teemu Hartikainen. Still trying to find his way but has potential.

Many of the later rounds picks in 2009, 2010, 2011 are in the minor leagues still developing. They're not busts yet. Usually you analyze a draft five years after the fact.

 

[Master Lok]

Here's Lowetide's analysis of past Oiler draft years. (from 2011)

http://lowetide.ca/blog/2011/07/best-draft-5-years-out.html

 

[timekeep]

Yes you have a tendency to overreact.

It's not a fact that the Oilers have "Never been able to add these kind of players past the 1st round..." Its your opinion. how about putting out some real facts instead of just your opinion?

Since you went all the way back to 2003 (for the Bruins Patrice Bergeron), lets try that.

2003 - 7th round Kyle Brodziak, who is currently playing the 2nd or 3rd line centre for Minnesota.

2003 - 9th round Troy Bodie - has had cups of coffee in Anaheim, Carolina etc.

2006 - 2nd round, Jeff Petry. Currently a top 4 dman for the Oilers. Pretty good result.

2006 - 3nd round, Theo Peckham, 7th dman on the Oilers.


In 2007 & 2008, we traded away our 2nd and 3rd round picks.

2008 - 6th round, Teemu Hartikainen. Still trying to find his way but has potential.

Many of the later rounds picks in 2009, 2010, 2011 are in the minor leagues still developing. They're not busts yet. Usually you analyze a draft five years after the fact.

The facts says that the Oilers have two NHLers after the 1st round, in Petry and Brodziak. A press box and occasional tea sipper in Peckham and a question mark in Hartikainen. This goes back 10 years. Ouch, these facts suck.

 

[Joey Moss]

Yes you have a tendency to overreact.

It's not a fact that the Oilers have "Never been able to add these kind of players past the 1st round..." Its your opinion. how about putting out some real facts instead of just your opinion?

Since you went all the way back to 2003 (for the Bruins Patrice Bergeron), lets try that.

2003 - 7th round Kyle Brodziak, who is currently playing the 2nd or 3rd line centre for Minnesota.

2003 - 9th round Troy Bodie - has had cups of coffee in Anaheim, Carolina etc.

2006 - 2nd round, Jeff Petry. Currently a top 4 dman for the Oilers. Pretty good result.

2006 - 3nd round, Theo Peckham, 7th dman on the Oilers.


In 2007 & 2008, we traded away our 2nd and 3rd round picks.

2008 - 6th round, Teemu Hartikainen. Still trying to find his way but has potential.

Many of the later rounds picks in 2009, 2010, 2011 are in the minor leagues still developing. They're not busts yet. Usually you analyze a draft five years after the fact.

When you have to bring up fringe NHL'ers into your argument you know something's wrong.

Seriously.. Brodziak and Petry the only good players out of 5 years? Not good enough when you look at the other teams I've listed.

 

[OilerNut*]

It is pretty much a crapshoot after the 2nd round. Is it even possible to predict what a kid at 17 years old will look like at 24? If anything it's all in development, there is probably 200 guys all around the same talent level but need guidance in developing those skills.

 

[The Nuge]

When you have to bring up fringe NHL'ers into your argument you know something's wrong.

Seriously.. Brodziak and Petry the only good players out of 5 years? Not good enough when you look at the other teams I've listed.

There are also teams that are much worse. Over that same span, the Panthers produced one player who is currently in the NHL... But was traded to simply dump his cap hit... And that player is Booth. Markstrom will be an NHler as well, but that's getting into more recent players.


Tampa Bay is even worse. Their only guy is Mike Lundin... and he's terrible.

Outside of Vancouver's 04 draft, the only player they've got is Raymond

 

[Joey Moss]

There are also teams that are much worse. Over that same span, the Panthers produced one player who is currently in the NHL... But was traded to simply dump his cap hit... And that player is Booth. Markstrom will be an NHler as well, but that's getting into more recent players.


Tampa Bay is even worse. Their only guy is Mike Lundin... and he's terrible.

Outside of Vancouver's 04 draft, the only player they've got is Raymond

There's a reason they are bad teams.. aside from Vancouver who has been able to add some key pieces through Free Agency, which we aren't capable of. We need our drafting to be better because that's the main way we will gain good players.

 

[The Nuge]

There's a reason they are bad teams.. aside from Vancouver who has been able to add some key pieces through Free Agency, which we aren't capable of. We need our drafting to be better because that's the main way we will gain good players.

Oh I know. I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was simply pointing out that we could be even worse off

 

[Master Lok]

When you have to bring up fringe NHL'ers into your argument you know something's wrong.

Seriously.. Brodziak and Petry the only good players out of 5 years? Not good enough when you look at the other teams I've listed.

Funny enough - talk about fringe nhlers - you've included a number of them in your "analysis". There's not much difference between Hartikainen and Brandon Saad. Or Mark Stone Or Jordan Nolan. Or Sobotka. Or Martinez. You included a lot of question marks in your "proof" of good drafting.

Ok, here's the Blackhawks.

Chicago
2003 - Corey Crawford (2) and Dustin Byfuglien (8)
2004 - Dave Bolland, Bryan Bickell, Troy Brouwer
2005 - Niklas Hjalmarsson
2006, 2007, 2008 - none.
2009 - Marcus Kruger.
2010 - none.
2011 - Shaw, I don't included Saad who has a grand total of two NHL games before this season started.

Crawford and Byflugien, Bolland, Hjalmarsson were the best ones, but that was 8-10 years ago. For the last 7 years, they have a grand total of Marcus Kruger.

Ottawa
Mark Stone (6th rounder in 2010)- In AHL, but called up a couple times.. very good prospect with size
Jakob Silfverberg (2nd rounder in 2009)- Main roster.. really good player with great future
Robin Lehner (2nd rounder in 2009)- Main roster.. elite young goalie with awesome potential
Patrick Wiercioch (2nd rounder in 2008)- Main roster.. putting up Gardiner like numbers
Zack Smith (2nd rounder in 2008)- Main roster, much like Shaw.

"really good player"? ""awesome potential?" "Elite young goalie"?

Your projections are really questionable.

Mark Stone hasn't even played an NHL game yet. Prior to this year, these five players have played a total of 174 games, its really early to make any type of determination.

 

[Joey Moss]

Funny enough - talk about fringe nhlers - you've included a number of them in your "analysis". There's not much difference between Hartikainen and Brandon Saad. Or Mark Stone Or Jordan Nolan. Or Sobotka. Or Martinez. You included a lot of question marks in your "proof" of good drafting.

Ok, here's the Blackhawks.

Chicago
2003 - Corey Crawford (2) and Dustin Byfuglien (8)
2004 - Dave Bolland, Bryan Bickell, Troy Brouwer
2005 - Niklas Hjalmarsson
2006, 2007, 2008 - none.
2009 - Marcus Kruger.
2010 - none.
2011 - Shaw, I don't included Saad who has a grand total of two NHL games before this season started.

Crawford and Byflugien, Bolland, Hjalmarsson were the best ones, but that was 8-10 years ago. For the last 7 years, they have a grand total of Marcus Kruger.



"really good player"? ""awesome potential?" "Elite young goalie"?

Your projections are really questionable.

Mark Stone hasn't even played an NHL game yet. Prior to this year, these five players have played a total of 174 games, its really early to make any type of determination.

I would say that's just you not knowing enough about the players.

And Mark Stone has played in 5 NHL games.

Guys like Troy Bodie and Theo Peckham are barely playing. Every player I mentioned is making a bigger impact for their teams.

EDIT - Not much of a difference between Saad and Harti? Saad has 16 points in 30 games as a rookie. Hartikainen is 3 years older and can't stick with this team.

 

[Suxnet]

The Oilers haven't gotten a whole lot from later rounds but you're really overrating some other teams' picks.

 

[Joey Moss]

The Oilers haven't gotten a whole lot from later rounds but you're really overrating some other teams' picks.

Like which one's? Everything I've listed has been better than the Oilers picks aside from some that are worse than Petry and Brodziak.

Some of the prospects I've listed like Stone are obviously harder to gauge but they're later round picks who are actually playing decent in the AHL compared to ours which is why I've listed them.

The point is the most important part of this thread. I'm just saying it's not good enough.

 

[joestevens29]

Like which one's? Everything I've listed has been better than the Oilers picks aside from some that are worse than Petry and Brodziak.

Some of the prospects I've listed like Stone are obviously harder to gauge but they're later round picks who are actually playing decent in the AHL compared to ours which is why I've listed them.

The point is the most important part of this thread. I'm just saying it's not good enough.

LA's players for instance. Yes they got some NHL players, but put them on the Oilers and they'll look like crap. Clifford is a healthy scratch. Toffoli, nothing against the guy, but Omark has done the same as him. King/Martinez again nice complimentary players, but throw them in Edmonton and they won't look any better then Potter or Jones.