Our drafting has been abysmal

SnuggaRUDE

Registered User
Apr 5, 2013
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Uh... you're acting like everything is set in stone.

It's great asset management if the player continues to struggle and his value continues to plummet.

It's bad asset management if the player blows up and becomes what you've always expected.

So seeing how nobody can predict the future.. it's making judgement calls.

Will Reinharts shooting percentage climb? Most likely yes...but it doesnt change the fact that the player is consistently inconsistent and is not living up to expectations.

I dont care if he scores 10 goals in March when we are already out of playoffs.

If this is the Reinhart we are going to get year after year... adios

The bolded isn't a reason to trade a player.
 

Beerz

Registered User
Jun 28, 2011
34,849
10,335
You trade a player because they're under-performing their contract, not your expectations. Do they trade Dahlin if he turns out to be a #2D? That's a daft take.

The daft take is you taking it literal ... that since someone is not meeting expectations you have to trade them... that is not what I was implying at all.

Players are traded all the time for not meeting expectations. A lot of them are called "change of scenery" deals.

If you have a player that has become stagnant or regressed or you don't have the confidence that they will be able to take the next step then it is perfectly acceptable to deal said player and try to get as much value for them as possible now because you worry they are losing value.
 

ZZamboni

Puttin' on the Foil
Sep 25, 2010
15,399
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Buffalo, NY
After reading thru others opinions. It looks like the majority think no... no our drafting hasn’t been abysmal at all.
I didn’t think so ...
 

Djp

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Jul 28, 2012
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Alexandria, VA
Our organizational woes are directly related to the 2005-2011 drafts. In 7 years, we got no high-end talent at all and only a handful of decent players. Here are the best players from that 7-year period (in rough order - but not exact):

Tyler Myers, Brayden McNabb, Mark Pysyk, Tyler Ennis, Joel Armia (he'll probably move up this list), Marcus Foligno, Paul Byron, Zack Kassian, Mike Weber, Nathan Gerbe, Chris Butler

Just by way of example, here's who some other teams drafted in the same time period (yes, I know a few were top picks, but most of them weren't):

LAK:
Kopitar, Quick, Bernier, Trevor Lewis, Dwight King, Martinez, Simmonds, Hickey, Voynov, Doughty, Nolan, Deslauriers, Clifford, Brayden Schenn, Toffoli, Shore, Andreoff.

WSH:
Backstrom, Varlamov, Neuvirth, Mathieu Perrault, Alzner, Holtby, Carlson, Eakin, Orlov, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Grubauer [amazing goalie drafting]

BOS:
Sobotka, Marchand, Lucic, Kessel, Spooner, Seguin, Hamilton

STL:
TJ Oshie, Ben Bishop, Ryan Reaves, Berglund, Erik Johnson, Perron, Ian Cole, Lars Eller, Lehtera, Jake Allen, Pietrangelo, Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz


Focusing on the 1st and 2nd round picks....

LA
2003 13 26 27 44
2004 11 50 60
2005 11
2006 11 17 48
2007 4 52 61
2008 2 13 32
2009 5 35
2010 15 47
2011 49


22 in 8 years: 3 top 5 , 3 top 10, 9 top 15



BOS
2003 21 45
2004 63 64
2005 22 39
2006 5 37 50
2007 8 35
2008 16 47
2009 25
2010 2 32 45
2011 9 40

19 picks 2 top 5, 3 top 10, 3 top 15

Washington

2003 18
2004 1 27 29 33 62
2005 14 27
2006 4 23 34 35 52
2007 5 34 46
2008 21 27 57 58
2009 24 55
2010 26
2011. None


22 picks. 3 top 5. 3 top 10. 4 top 15


STL

2003 30 62
2004 17 49
2005 24 37
2006 1 25 31
2007 13 18 26 39 44
2008 . 4 33 34
2009 17 48
2010 14 16 44
2011 32 41 46

25 picks. 2 top 5, 2 top 10, 3 top 15

Buffalo

2003 5 65
2004 13 43
2005 13 48
2006 24 46 57
2007 31 59
2008 12 26
2009 13
2010 23
2011 16

16 picks. 1 top 5, 1 top 10. 4 top 15

I see a pattern here....do you...


Comparing apples to apples ......


2012. 12 14 44
2013. 8 16 35 38 52
2014 2 31 44 49
2015 2 51
2016 8 33
2017 8 37 54
2018 1 32

2019-20. 19 1 20 1 20 2; stl 1 and sj 1 in one of the two drafts

Assuming no pick trades or acquired new picks

Buffalo has 26 picks. 3 top 5, 6 top 10, 8 top 15
 

dire wolf

immaculate vibes
May 9, 2006
6,151
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Out in LA
Focusing on the 1st and 2nd round picks....

LA
2003 13 26 27 44
2004 11 50 60
2005 11
2006 11 17 48
2007 4 52 61
2008 2 13 32
2009 5 35
2010 15 47
2011 49


22 in 8 years: 3 top 5 , 3 top 10, 9 top 15



BOS
2003 21 45
2004 63 64
2005 22 39
2006 5 37 50
2007 8 35
2008 16 47
2009 25
2010 2 32 45
2011 9 40

19 picks 2 top 5, 3 top 10, 3 top 15

Washington

2003 18
2004 1 27 29 33 62
2005 14 27
2006 4 23 34 35 52
2007 5 34 46
2008 21 27 57 58
2009 24 55
2010 26
2011. None


22 picks. 3 top 5. 3 top 10. 4 top 15


STL

2003 30 62
2004 17 49
2005 24 37
2006 1 25 31
2007 13 18 26 39 44
2008 . 4 33 34
2009 17 48
2010 14 16 44
2011 32 41 46

25 picks. 2 top 5, 2 top 10, 3 top 15

Buffalo

2003 5 65
2004 13 43
2005 13 48
2006 24 46 57
2007 31 59
2008 12 26
2009 13
2010 23
2011 16

16 picks. 1 top 5, 1 top 10. 4 top 15

I see a pattern here....do you...


Comparing apples to apples ......


2012. 12 14 44
2013. 8 16 35 38 52
2014 2 31 44 49
2015 2 51
2016 8 33
2017 8 37 54
2018 1 32

2019-20. 19 1 20 1 20 2; stl 1 and sj 1 in one of the two drafts

Assuming no pick trades or acquired new picks

Buffalo has 26 picks. 3 top 5, 6 top 10, 8 top 15

You have half a point, but it's not a complete explanation. It's not like they got all of their picks at the top of the 1st round. They still managed to find some key pieces in the draft at spots that Buffalo could have picked. Let's take out top-10 picks, here's what's left:

LAK:
Quick - 3rd round
Bernier - 1st round (11)
Lewis - 1st round (17)
Simmonds - 2nd
Martinez - 4th
King - 4th
Voynov - 2nd
Nolan - 7th
Clifford - 2nd
Toffoli - 2nd

WSH:
Perrault - 6th
Neuvirth - 2nd
Varlamov - 1st (23)
Holtby - 4th
Carlson - 1st (27)
Eakin - 3rd
Orlov - 2nd
Johansson - 1st (24)
Grubauer - 4th
Kuznetsov - 1st (26)

BOS:
Sobotka - 4th
Marchand - 3rd
Lucic - 2nd
Spooner - 2nd

STL:
Oshie - 1st (24)
Bishop - 3rd
Reaves - 5th
Berglund - 1st (25)
Perron - 1st (26)
Cole - 1st (18)
Eller - 1st (13)
Lehtera - 3rd
Tarasenko - 1st (16)
Schwartz - 1st (14)

The reason the Sabres' drafting improved in the last few years isn't that they got more picks (though that obviously helps). Remember that they were relying on a budget-slashed staff and video scouting under Golisano. He sold the team in 2011.
 

Djp

Registered User
Jul 28, 2012
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Alexandria, VA
You have half a point, but it's not a complete explanation. It's not like they got all of their picks at the top of the 1st round. They still managed to find some key pieces in the draft at spots that Buffalo could have picked. Let's take out top-10 picks, here's what's left:

LAK:
Quick - 3rd round
Bernier - 1st round (11)
Lewis - 1st round (17)
Simmonds - 2nd
Martinez - 4th
King - 4th
Voynov - 2nd
Nolan - 7th
Clifford - 2nd
Toffoli - 2nd

WSH:
Perrault - 6th
Neuvirth - 2nd
Varlamov - 1st (23)
Holtby - 4th
Carlson - 1st (27)
Eakin - 3rd
Orlov - 2nd
Johansson - 1st (24)
Grubauer - 4th
Kuznetsov - 1st (26)

BOS:
Sobotka - 4th
Marchand - 3rd
Lucic - 2nd
Spooner - 2nd

STL:
Oshie - 1st (24)
Bishop - 3rd
Reaves - 5th
Berglund - 1st (25)
Perron - 1st (26)
Cole - 1st (18)
Eller - 1st (13)
Lehtera - 3rd
Tarasenko - 1st (16)
Schwartz - 1st (14)

The reason the Sabres' drafting improved in the last few years isn't that they got more picks (though that obviously helps). Remember that they were relying on a budget-slashed staff and video scouting under Golisano. He sold the team in 2011.


I have said numerous time before the scouting system was cut in 2005-2007 which also imp-cted them.

in a draft you rely on your 1st and 2nd round picks being players. Anything in the 3rd round or later is an utter crapshoot in getting a player that plays 200 games. If you have more bites at the apple you will likely be able to find a player

Its more luck than skill in drafting anyone in the 3rd round or later that is a top 6/top 4 player. in this area you can find serviceable NHL players who are on the bottom half of the roster.

Buffalo actually has been one of the better teams in drafting players compared to other teams when factoring in draft position and expectations during the period of 1999-2010.

goalies usually are drafted in the 4rd-5th round. I don't much stock there of teams hitting on a goalie there. its a negative if a team uses a 1st/high 2nd on a goalie and he doesn't start.

Boston has been one of the better teams in drafting good players in the 2nd round.

LAK:

Martinez - 4th
King - 4th
Nolan - 7th

WSH:
Perrault - 6th
Eakin - 3rd

BOS:
Sobotka - 4th
Marchand - 3rd


STL:

Reaves - 5th
Lehtera - 3rd

BUF

Hejda (4)
MacArthur (3)
Kalets (6)
Sekera ( 3)
Gerbe (5)
Butler (4)
Byron (6)
McNabb (3)
Foligno (4)
 

SatanwasaSlovak

Registered User
Jan 18, 2013
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128
Malmö, Skåne
You can't predict the future either. It's always about predictions and hoping things turns out well. Sometimes you can even have a Calder-worthy defenseman suddenly starting to struggle. Who knows really. Buffalo have just had some bad luck with drafting and i think it's very detriment for a team to base their ideology of building a team, through hopes for the future.

That has been the problem i've seen since 2013 and why i didn't like gutting the whole team of talent like that. For what? Draft-picks and prospect that might turn into what we already had? Instead of trying to build off of what we had, trying to make some changes here and there to improve the team. Never liked the approaching of gutting a team completely. Always been way too much of a video gamey idea to me.
 
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Djp

Registered User
Jul 28, 2012
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Alexandria, VA
.

That has been the problem i've seen since 2013 and why i didn't like gutting the whole team of talent like that. For what? Draft-picks and prospect that might turn into what we already had? Instead of trying to build off of what we had, trying to make some changes here and there to improve the team. Never liked the approaching of gutting a team completely. Always been way too much of a video gamey idea to me.

It was a little more complicated that that....

In 2011 buffalo wanted to go for it because the core were in their mid-late 20s still under contract. But the team had a void where there was a separation of 199-2004 class and the 2008-2011 drafts.

They sign Leino things he the missing piece then they started to think about rebuilding by trading Gausted . Then pist lockout with a shortened season they decided to go through a full rebuild

Another factor was in 2006-2009 period seeing a bunch of players walk away via free agency. Buffalo couldn’t have that and wanted something for them.
 

Djp

Registered User
Jul 28, 2012
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5,637
Alexandria, VA
I'm more annoyed at the sheer amount of draft picks and prospects GMTM threw around like cheap candy. He was given a mountain of 2nds and 1sts and blew them on the Fashing Trade or the Kane trade

What did he “blow”?

Lehner for 21...he would have drafted the goalie. Instead he got a goalie who was 24 yrs old.


He traded Armia, Lemieux, 25 for Kane who got a 1, 4, and Oregan.

He traded Zadorov, Grigs, compher and 2 for ROR and Vesey rights and traded ROR for a 1 2 Thompson and whatever is gotten when Sobotka and berglund are traded for. It seems a break even.

He traded a 2 for Gorges

If we kept all these players we would be very young and still need to reach the cap floor. Development of players would have been hindered.

This summer was finally done what I have said for a few years...buffalo needed to trade some of the young forward depth for defensive depth. Fasching and baptiste for defenseman.

What I have a feeling that was done around the Regher trade for 2 2nd trade was the 2 2nds weee just placeholders for a group of prospects that needed to be evaluated so they’d cash the check by the next deadline.
 

OkimLom

Registered User
May 3, 2010
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I'm more annoyed at the sheer amount of draft picks and prospects GMTM threw around like cheap candy. He was given a mountain of 2nds and 1sts and blew them on the Fashing Trade or the Kane trade

He used those assets to address main roster roles that needed to be filled while prospects would be developing in the respective leagues and in the minors. Instead of signing the table scraps that would be left in free agency, he used the plethora of assets to pry guys out of teams so we would have first shot at them. Seeing how well Buffalo has handled developing “later” 1st round picks, I have a feeling people would be complaining about how Murray should’ve used those 1st round picks to attempt to fill a #2 center role or getting a starting goalie since we had nobody of worth in that position.

He achieved that. Are there players that I wish he targeted instead or didn’t bring in, absolutely. But I still support his thinking of what he needed to do in terms of roster building.
 

Chainshot

Give 'em Enough Rope
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BTG-era video scouting was terrible and so too was shortened-roster development. Regier's track record left a lot to be desired in both departments. Murray didn't really start to turn that around and now Botterill has purged most of the scouting staff Murray and late-era Regier installed, so even if a couple of the late picks turn out, it isn't necessarily a shift that bears replicable results over time.

Yes, the drafting results are sub-optimal and that may also be linked (though not exclusively) to pro development. Bad choices and a lack of emphasis on turning people out in the right way is not a recipe anyone should be copying.
 

SnuggaRUDE

Registered User
Apr 5, 2013
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Never hurts to use an emoji. There is so much non-facetiousness pushed off a rote, casual visitors can not keep up.

El Chain-a-rino: Casual visitor :thumbd:

Agreed though, some of the stuff here that should be sarcasm isn't, and a lot of what is sarcasm shouldn't be.
 

Chainshot

Give 'em Enough Rope
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Feb 28, 2002
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El Chain-a-rino: Casual visitor :thumbd:

Agreed though, some of the stuff here that should be sarcasm isn't, and a lot of what is sarcasm shouldn't be.

Real life has been thumping hockey and HF for a while. This is the first time in about a month I've had to sit and watch some non-NHL puck.
 

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