Our 2nd-7th round picks for forwards is laughably trash

[MapleLeafs9]

We've seen and still see so many great centres and wingers in this league that weren't 1st overall picks like Matthews, or top 10 picks like Kadri, Nylander and Marner, or even 1st round picks, that just went above and beyond in terms of progression and development and have become stars and superstars. We've never had that luxury yet.

Our longest serving Leaf once Bozak is gone will be Nazem Kadri, and he was drafted in 2009 so lets use that as a starting point of all our forwards drafted in the 2nd round and later. The results are embarrassing.

Spoiler: 2009-2015 Drafts

2009
2nd round, 50th overall: Kenny Ryan, 0 NHL GP
3rd round, 68th overall: Jamie Devane, 2 NHL GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P
6th round, 158th overall: Jerry D'Amigo, 31 NHL GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 P (22 GP with Leafs)

2010
2nd round, 43rd overall: Brad Ross, 0 NHL GP
3rd round, 62nd overall: Greg McKegg, 91 NHL GP, 7 G, 6 A, 13 P (4 GP with Leafs)
3rd round, 79th overall: Sondre Olden, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 144th overall: Sam Carrick, 19 NHL GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 P
5th round, 146th overall: Daniel Brodin, 0 NHL GP
7th round, 182nd overall: Josh Nicholls, 0 NHL GP

2011
3rd round, 86th overall: Josh Leivo, 57 NHL GP, 10 G, 12 A, 22 P*
5th round, 130th overall: Tony Cameranesi, 0 NHL GP
6th round, 152nd overall: David Broll, 5 NHL GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 P

2012
5th round, 126th overall: Dominic Toninato, 37 NHL GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 P (0 GP with Leafs)
6th round, 156th overall: Connor Brown, 171 NHL GP, 35 G, 35 A, 70 P*
6th round, 157th overall: Ryan Rupert, 0 NHL GP

2013
3rd round, 86th overall: Carter Verhaeghe, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 142nd overall: Fabrice Herzog, 0 NHL GP
7th round, 202nd overall: Andreas Johnsson, 9 NHL GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 P*

2014
4th round, 103rd overall: J.J. Piccinich, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 128th overall: Dakota Joshua, 0 NHL GP
6th round, 158th overall: Nolan Vesey, 0 NHL GP
7th round, 188th overall: Pierre Engvall, 0 NHL GP**

2015
2nd round, 61st overall: Jeremy Bracco, 0 NHL GP**
3rd round, 68th overall: Martins Dzierkals, 0 NHL GP
5th round, 125th overall: Dmytro Timashov, 0 NHL GP**
7th round, 185th overall: Nikita Korostelev, 0 NHL GP

tl;dr whole lot of prospects with 0 GP

* Leivo always ends up being a scratch or 4th liner when he's in the lineup so I feel like his potential is pretty much wasted. Brown has turned into a decent 3rd liner for us with penalty killing abilities, but that's about it, the guy doesn't do much else, benefited heavily from playing with Matthews his rookie year, and his regression this year when not playing with him showed. Johnsson is our 1 lucky late pick with top 6 potential, he is 24 years old so he's already in the prime years of his career and he just finally had his cup of coffee in the NHL. He is really going to need to show more next season.

** Jury is still out on Engvall, Bracco and Timashov on them just being NHL'ers. They definitely don't have star+ potential though. I'd say Engvall has higher potential at this point though after what he's shown since coming to the Marlies, and the SHL.

Not gonna do 2016-2017, too early for that. It's just absolutely amazing to me that the only way we were able to finally climb out of the basement was to get lucky by winning a lottery then drafting a franchise centre 1st overall, suck and suck to get Nylander and Marner, while getting no luck at all in the late rounds for forwards along the way. We need a Bergeron, a Benn, a Kucherov, a Marchand, a Gaudreau, a Stone, an Aho, a Point.

It's easy to make the Matthews and Marner picks. Imagine where we could've been this season or where we could be next season if we just had 1 single surprise mid or late round pick so that useless players like Bozak, Komarov or Martin would be long gone, and that there would've never been a need to sign/trade for players like Moore or Plekanec in the 1st place.

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[Orfieus]

That's why everyone up to 2014 was fired, except for like 2 people and it's too early to judge 2015

 

[MapleLeafs9]

That's why everyone up to 2014 was fired, except for like 2 people and it's too early to judge 2015

We no longer have the rights to Dzierkals and Korostelev so they're done, and I think we see what Bracco and Timashov are at this point. I used to really like Timashov when he was in junior, thought he was a steal. He was a fantastic playmaker with good vision but he hasn't transitioned that to the AHL and doesn't get enough ice time. Although he's playing well in the playoffs right now with 9 points in 12 games. Bracco's speed and skill set isn't enough to make up for his small size IMO.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Or you can look at it this way, the Leafs had 5 forwards drafted from 2012-2016 that played in this years playoffs against Boston. Brown, Johnsson, Marner, Matthews and Nylander. Add in Dermott ,and Rielly and you have 7 NHL players drafted in the span of 5 drafts that played in that series. Also, all of those players are also under the age of 25. That's a good drafting record and quite frankly I think a lot of people would take that. There's no reason to get hung up on not drafting superstars in the 7th round. This thread is complaining for the sake of complaining because there isn't much else to talk about . Like, come on its summer, there's plenty other things to do

 

[Notsince67]

We no longer have the rights to Dzierkals and Korostelev so they're done, and I think we see what Bracco and Timashov are at this point. I used to really like Timashov when he was in junior, thought he was a steal. He was a fantastic playmaker with good vision but he hasn't transitioned that to the AHL and doesn't get enough ice time. Although he's playing well in the playoffs right now with 9 points in 12 games. Bracco's speed and skill set isn't enough to make up for his small size IMO.

He is probably a bit bigger than Marchand. Nothing wrong with that if he keeps his head up

 

[Boutette]

We no longer have the rights to Dzierkals and Korostelev so they're done, and I think we see what Bracco and Timashov are at this point. I used to really like Timashov when he was in junior, thought he was a steal. He was a fantastic playmaker with good vision but he hasn't transitioned that to the AHL and doesn't get enough ice time. Although he's playing well in the playoffs right now with 9 points in 12 games. Bracco's speed and skill set isn't enough to make up for his small size IMO.

Bracco has been repeatedly praised by Keefe and showed it whenever he was elevated above the 4th line. He's definitely the organizations #3 playmaking prospect. And remember, this is his rookie AHL year, just like it was Johnsson's rookie year last year (did he burn up the AHL? no not really). Sure, he isn't playing much in the playoffs, but the Marlies seem to be playing by seniority as much as anything else and want a cup, he's been squeezed out by the teams vast array of older talent. You also forgot Brooks, who has improved over the course of the year, and is playing a useful part of our playoff team with clutch goals and assists. He too is a rookie, was relegated to the 4th line for much of the year and will get a bigger role next year. Then there's Sparks as well, forget him?

 

[deletethis]

Interesting topic, clickbaity title.

 

[Critical13]

We no longer have the rights to Dzierkals and Korostelev so they're done, and I think we see what Bracco and Timashov are at this point. I used to really like Timashov when he was in junior, thought he was a steal. He was a fantastic playmaker with good vision but he hasn't transitioned that to the AHL and doesn't get enough ice time. Although he's playing well in the playoffs right now with 9 points in 12 games. Bracco's speed and skill set isn't enough to make up for his small size IMO.

I disagree, I think it's too early for 2015 prospects. They won't be home runs like Connor or Pastrnak, but they could still be decent NHL players.

We haven't done well drafting though, that's for sure.

 

[deletethis]

I'm going to say that there appears to be an NHL forward from picks in the range 4 to 7th in 3 consecutive drafts (2011, 2012, 2013). I consider that a good result.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Bracco has been repeatedly praised by Keefe and showed it whenever he was elevated above the 4th line. He's definitely the organizations #3 playmaking prospect. And remember, this is his rookie AHL year, just like it was Johnsson's rookie year last year (did he burn up the AHL? no not really). Sure, he isn't playing much in the playoffs, but the Marlies seem to be playing by seniority as much as anything else and want a cup, he's been squeezed out by the teams vast array of older talent. You also forgot Brooks, who has improved over the course of the year, and is playing a useful part of our playoff team with clutch goals and assists. He too is a rookie, was relegated to the 4th line for much of the year and will get a bigger role next year. Then there's Sparks as well, forget him?

I didn't call Bracco a bad prospect, I just don't think he has the potential to be a game breaking forward like other star 2nd-7th round picks in the NHL. Brooks is a 2016 pick, I didn't cover the 2016 and 2017 drafts in this thread because it's too soon for those drafts. Sparks is a goalie, this thread is for forwards?

 

[The CyNick]

Isn't the AHL team dummying right now? Picks can't be that bad

 

[al secord]

Our high end NHL talent are all in their early 20's and our AHL team is the cream of the crop..... What's this thread about again?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Most likely we are going to be able to keep the rights to Dzierkals.

All three possible scenarios for the Leafs will see him be protected:
1) He's offered an ELC and is under contract.
2) He's offered an AHL deal and under contract.
3) He goes back to Russia to likely play for Riga, the non-transfer agreement applies since we drafted him out of a Russian league, and we keep his rights indefinitely.

No matter what, I do not think there is a scenario where he can become a UFA unless we declare him as a UFA and take him off of our 90 man protected list (which is not going to happen since we have ample space as it is). Why they would do that after he had a pretty strong ECHL campaign and could easily secure a spot on the Marlies next year is beyond me. He's pretty much taking the Marchment route, but was drafted, has much more upside, and is a better player.

Same goes for Piccinich, but at this point he's just a guy on an AHL deal. We do not have NHL rights anymore, but he'll still be a guy who could come up through our AHL system, and could be on the Marlies next year too.

 

[TheKingSlayer]

Isn't the AHL team dummying right now? Picks can't be that bad

As long as we keep a winning culture down on the Marlies by throwing money at the top minor league players, our prospects will develop properly. Good mentorship goes a long way. The Leafs brass is going about developing the right way, and Keefe seems to be doing a great job balancing all the players he has to work with. If we can keep this stream going for the next 2-3 years and keep adding/acquiring young players to develop, we'll be just fine.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Most likely we are going to be able to keep the rights to Dzierkals.

All three possible scenarios for the Leafs will see him be protected:
1) He's offered an ELC and is under contract.
2) He's offered an AHL deal and under contract.
3) He goes back to Russia to likely play for Riga, the non-transfer agreement applies since we drafted him out of a Russian league, and we keep his rights indefinitely.

No matter what, I do not think there is a scenario where he can become a UFA unless we declare him as a UFA and take him off of our 90 man protected list (which is not going to happen since we have ample space as it is). Why they would do that after he had a pretty strong ECHL campaign and could easily secure a spot on the Marlies next year is beyond me. He's pretty much taking the Marchment route, but was drafted, has much more upside, and is a better player.

Same goes for Piccinich, but at this point he's just a guy on an AHL deal. We do not have NHL rights anymore, but he'll still be a guy who could come up through our AHL system, and could be on the Marlies next year too.

We still have his rights? I thought it was announced earlier this year that he and Korostelev wouldn't be signed?

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Our high end NHL talent are all in their early 20's and our AHL team is the cream of the crop..... What's this thread about again?

Our incompetence/bad luck/whatever you wanna call it at finding game breaking forwards or stars in the 2nd-7th rounds since we've been a bad team. Heck we can even probably go back to when we were a good team 1999-2004 and find no such luck. One who looks like he can definitely challenge that though is Grundstrom.

 

[Fogelhund]

I didn't call Bracco a bad prospect, I just don't think he has the potential to be a game breaking forward like other star 2nd-7th round picks in the NHL. Brooks is a 2016 pick, I didn't cover the 2016 and 2017 drafts in this thread because it's too soon for those drafts. Sparks is a goalie, this thread is for forwards?

Game breaking forwards picked outside of the first round. How many of those are there in the NHL? (I picked .6 ppg)

2009 Ryan O'Reilly
2010 None
2011 Kucherov, Gaudreau (Palat?)
2012 None
2013 Guentzel?
2014 Point, Arvidsson
2015 Aho

So over a period of seven years, there was 8 "good" forwards drafted after the first round. So the odds are something like 8 in 1300 of finding a "good player"... some of which are game breakers maybe.

So, you've got a 0.6% chance of a forward picked after the first round to have .6 points or more so far in there career... not sure that's game breaking... but... Ok, the odds are better, because D and G are picked amongst there as well... but even if it were a 1.2% chance... the odds aren't good. Basically it suggests, that if half of your picks are forwards after the first round, statistically you should pick one of these guys, once every 27 years. One player, once every 27 years!!!!!

In their early years, Wellwood, Poni and Kulemin, would have qualified Statistically, the Leafs have beaten the odds... not recently, but more than one every 27 years..... Though, it would appear as though in the past, more good players were taken in later rounds, so perhaps the odds were better a decade or two ago.

These days, if you can get good contributors, and look how many of our players have come through the Marlies, that is good enough.

 

[Nithoniniel]

In the second round, you can still reliable find at least solid prospects if you're a good scouting team. After that though, you are basically just firing shots in the dark. If you find a decent prospect per year in rounds 3 to 7, you are doing pretty good. I think we've done that since 2011.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It sure looks like it's not a problem anymore going by our last few drafts. What a weird time to complain about our drafting

 

[Boutette]

I didn't call Bracco a bad prospect, I just don't think he has the potential to be a game breaking forward like other star 2nd-7th round picks in the NHL. Brooks is a 2016 pick, I didn't cover the 2016 and 2017 drafts in this thread because it's too soon for those drafts. Sparks is a goalie, this thread is for forwards?

Bracco has the potential to be an elite NHL playmaker. He has that high a ceiling. Keefe has acknowledged his elite playmaking skills repeatedly, hell, he put about as many PPG on the board that Bozak did when he was a Marlie playing on the Marlies 4th line. Keefe, however, but has been working on turning him into a two-way player instead of just an elite passing specialist. He may fall short, but he does have that potential.

 

[Leafidelity]

Somebody isn’t watching the Marlies

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

2nd and 3rd round picks don't belong in the same category/argument as 4-7th round picks.

I expect maybe 1 or 2 4-7th round picks to turn into productive* players every 5 years.

I expect much better results in the 2nd-3rd rounds.

*productive being a 40+ point forward, or a PK-specialist, or top-5 D-man

 

[Kurtz]

Game breaking forwards picked outside of the first round. How many of those are there in the NHL? (I picked .6 ppg)

2009 Ryan O'Reilly
2010 None
2011 Kucherov, Gaudreau (Palat?)
2012 None
2013 Guentzel?
2014 Point, Arvidsson
2015 Aho

So over a period of seven years, there was 8 "good" forwards drafted after the first round. So the odds are something like 8 in 1300 of finding a "good player"... some of which are game breakers maybe.

So, you've got a 0.6% chance of a forward picked after the first round to have .6 points or more so far in there career... not sure that's game breaking... but... Ok, the odds are better, because D and G are picked amongst there as well... but even if it were a 1.2% chance... the odds aren't good. Basically it suggests, that if half of your picks are forwards after the first round, statistically you should pick one of these guys, once every 27 years. One player, once every 27 years!!!!!

In their early years, Wellwood, Poni and Kulemin, would have qualified Statistically, the Leafs have beaten the odds... not recently, but more than one every 27 years..... Though, it would appear as though in the past, more good players were taken in later rounds, so perhaps the odds were better a decade or two ago.

These days, if you can get good contributors, and look how many of our players have come through the Marlies, that is good enough.

Great post. I expect the OP to read this and accept his loss with good sportsmanship.

 

[Canada4Gold]

We still have his rights? I thought it was announced earlier this year that he and Korostelev wouldn't be signed?

He was drafted out of Europe/Russia so we hold his rights for 4 years. Him going to the CHL after didn't change that. He's on an AHL deal. Time will tell if he ever gets beyond that but we hold his rights until June 1st 2019 IIRC.

 

[Martin Skoula]

These days, if you can get good contributors, and look how many of our players have come through the Marlies, that is good enough.

Consistently finding middle-6 forwards and bottom-4 D on ELCs/first contracts is more important than rare game-breaking forwards late in the draft IMO. The game-breaking forwards are still going to get their 8+ mil contracts eventually, while having 3 or 4 Johnsson/Brown types in the lineup probably saves you 8+ mil over similar quality UFAs.