Speculation: Our 2021 Expansion draft plan

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,076
Tampere, Finland
First of all, I copied the rules from here:

Expansion Draft: Full Rules
Protected Lists
* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:
a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender
b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender
* All players who have currently effective and continuing "No Movement" clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).
* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

* All Clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:
i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2020-21 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2020-21 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2020-21 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2020-21. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.
* Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

So, let's start.

First of all, select our own option. Most old contracts at defence are gonna end as UFA and guys like Seider and McIsaac are safe from the expansion draft. That determines the big picture. Obvious Red Wings protecting system will be 7+3+1, if we don't see multiple trades to change our defensive core.

But I'll start from the offense, in a caphit order for existing contracts. I'll also use some raw caphit estimates for RFAs.

Situation at summer of 2021:
RankPlayercaphit (M)2021ExpansionInfo
1Anthony Mantha7.00Protected
2Dylan Larkin6.10Protected
3Tyler Bertuzzi5.25Protected
4Andreas Athanasiou4.75Protected
5Robby Fabbri3.50Protected
6Valtteri Filppula3.00UFAexposed
7Luke Glendening1.80UFAexposed
8Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond0.90Safe2020 1st rounder
9Filip Zadina0.90Safe
10Michael Rasmussen0.90Protected
11Evgeny Svechnikov0.80Protected
12Frans Nielsen5.25exposedwould meet game requirements for F (total 70 games for 2 seasons)
13Justin Abdelkader4.25exposedwould meet game requirements for F (total 70 games for 2 seasons)
14Joe Veleno0.90Safe
15Chase Pearson0.70Safe
16Darren Helm3.85UFAexposed
17Givani Smith0.00exposed
18Adam Erne0.00exposed
19Christoffer Ehn0.00exposed
20Brendan Perlini0.00exposed
21Ryan Kuffner0.00exposed
22Dominic Turgeon0.00exposed
23Taro Hirose0.00exposed
RankPlayercaphit2021Expansion?Info
1Dan DeKeyser5.00Protected
2Filip Hronek4.50Protected
3Patrik Nemeth3.00UFAexposedre-sign after expansion?
4Dennis Cholowski1.50Protected
5Moritz Seider0.90Safe
6Jared McIsaac0.90Safe
7Madison Bowey0.70exposedwould meet game requirements for D after playing 48 more games
8Dylan McIlrath0.70UFAexposed
9Oliwer Kaski0.00Safe
10Gustav Lindström0.00exposed
11Joe Hicketts0.00exposedwould meet game requirements for D after playing 64 more games
12Brian Lashoff0.00UFAexposed
13Green, Ericsson, Biega, Daley0.00UFAexposed2020 UFAs, let walk
2021Expansion?Info
12020 UFA goaltender6.00Protectednot Jimmy Howard
2Jonathan Bernier3.00UFAexposed
3Filip Larsson0.00Safe
4Calvin Pickard0.70UFAexposed
5Kaden Fulcher0.00exposedwill meet RFA requirement
6Eric Comrie0.00exposedwill meet RFA requirement
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
Last edited:

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,076
Tampere, Finland
So there's the basic situation.

First of all, no NMCs have to be protected. Nobody has it anymore.

From today, this whole situation can differ very much if Yzerman is pulling trades once a month.

But still, you can start creating scenarios.

Like, if we sign Torey Krug as UFA, that would leave Cholowski unprotected. That could lead trades at next season, where we send guys like Athanasiou or Svechnikov with Cholowski for a different forward. Imo, getting Krug would make Cholowski easily expendable. They just play the same game, and Krug is in-prime.

The the defence would be built around:

Krug - Seider
DeKeyser - Hronek
Nemeth - Kaski/McIlrath/Lindström
McIsaac

Or, take players back who are outside the protection, or just take one single forward back to have that 7th forward to be protected. Now we have 8th guys, and the decision, imo, should be around Athanasiou and Svechnikov.

If we trade either for futures, this problem would also disappear.

All our other players (not named on the list) since 2015 drafts are outside the Seattle expansion.

You have to be SIGNED and 3rd year pro at 2021 to be included. Guys like Chase Pearson are not, because he came from College, and was at Griffins as AHL amateur contract, and his expansion "clock" didn't start ticking until at this season.

So Pearson is 1st year pro currently, like Kaski, because they were unsigned for NHL organization. 2nd year pros at next season.

Unlike Zadina, he is already 2nd year pro and to be protected as 3rd year pro at 2021 summer.
 
Last edited:

RedWingsfan55

Registered User
Jan 5, 2015
575
93
Basically this is why I continue to tell people that it is my opinion that yzerman wont make any major moves. The red wings are in a spot now that our core is protected or too young to be exposed. We wont lose anybody of value.

Which if that is true, means he wont sign any big name free agent until after the expansion draft. So as a fan enjoy the next season and a half, but I'm ok with it. We need this rebuild.


Back to the task at hand. I'd seriously consider doing the here take this 3rd round pick if you take nielson off our hands route.

I also wouldnt be surprised if glendening is protected since we dont have enough high end forwards to protect, you could choose glendening as an option.
 

marcaractac

Registered User
Aug 28, 2019
12
9
Zadina will not have to be protected. He is a special case where he played in the AHL as an 18 year old. By only playing 9 NHL games last season, he will not require expansion draft protection. It has to do with his entry-level contract having not been activated last season.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,076
Tampere, Finland
Zadina will not have to be protected. He is a special case where he played in the AHL as an 18 year old. By only playing 9 NHL games last season, he will not require expansion draft protection. It has to do with his entry-level contract having not been activated last season.

Found a confirmation for this, from earlier The Athletic speculation. For 18-19 year old the 1st pro year slides.

At same place was confirmation for that Lindström being exposed, because his ELC signing year was as 20-year-old.

Then it makes things easier. We can protect both Athanasiou and Svechnikov.
 
  • Like
Reactions: marcaractac

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,076
Tampere, Finland
Basically this is why I continue to tell people that it is my opinion that yzerman wont make any major moves. The red wings are in a spot now that our core is protected or too young to be exposed. We wont lose anybody of value.

Which if that is true, means he wont sign any big name free agent until after the expansion draft. So as a fan enjoy the next season and a half, but I'm ok with it. We need this rebuild.

I won't mind at all if he'll sign Krug as UFA and then we lose Cholowski year after. Still a huge win in big picture.

Or maybe he trades Cholowski for another asset, outside expansion things. Maybe somebody has too many centers and open spot for defenceman on their protectings, and use that situation for your advance.
 

RedWingsfan55

Registered User
Jan 5, 2015
575
93
I won't mind at all if he'll sign Krug as UFA and then we lose Cholowski year after. Still a huge win in big picture.

Or maybe he trades Cholowski for another asset, outside expansion things. Maybe somebody has too many centers and open spot for defenceman on their protectings, and use that situation for your advance.

I disagree heavily on krug. And I wouldnt get my Hope's up if I were you.

I think everything he has done is pointing towards his own 2 years plan of tanking(once he took over) then looking to compete after that.
 

Hockeyfannnn91

Registered User
Jan 26, 2019
1,268
328
If it was today, Glendenning is being taken. I believe he has real value and is a player teams want/need.
Glendening is gonna be a ufa no? Why would they take him , from the list above id say theyd take givani smith who id have no interest in losing as we dont have anyone who plays that style.

Sure fabbri is playing great now but id wait another year and see if he continues to play this well and/or doesnt suffer another horrible injury(not hoping he gets hurts but hes had two horrible knee injuries already and is more susceptible to getting another)
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,076
Tampere, Finland
Glendening is gonna be a ufa no? Why would they take him , from the list above id say theyd take givani smith who id have no interest in losing as we dont have anyone who plays that style.

Mostly this.

A) Glendening will proably be sold as UFA rental on the 2021 deadline for a contender.
B) he will be UFA at time of the expansion draft.
C) He can sign anywhere, why not to Seattle as UFA after the expansion?

Nobody has to protect him at expansion. Same for other 2021 UFAs like Bernier, Helm, Nemeth, Filppula etc.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->