Speculation: Our 2021 Expansion draft plan

Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by Henkka, Dec 1, 2019.

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  1. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    First of all, I copied the rules from here:

    Expansion Draft: Full Rules
    So, let's start.

    First of all, select our own option. Most old contracts at defence are gonna end as UFA and guys like Seider and McIsaac are safe from the expansion draft. That determines the big picture. Obvious Red Wings protecting system will be 7+3+1, if we don't see multiple trades to change our defensive core.

    But I'll start from the offense, in a caphit order for existing contracts. I'll also use some raw caphit estimates for RFAs.

    Situation at summer of 2021:
    RankPlayercaphit (M)2021ExpansionInfo
    1Anthony Mantha7.00Protected
    2Dylan Larkin6.10Protected
    3Tyler Bertuzzi5.25Protected
    4Andreas Athanasiou4.75Protected
    5Robby Fabbri3.50Protected
    6Valtteri Filppula3.00UFAexposed
    7Luke Glendening1.80UFAexposed
    8Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond0.90Safe2020 1st rounder
    9Filip Zadina0.90Safe
    10Michael Rasmussen0.90Protected
    11Evgeny Svechnikov0.80Protected
    12Frans Nielsen5.25exposedwould meet game requirements for F (total 70 games for 2 seasons)
    13Justin Abdelkader4.25exposedwould meet game requirements for F (total 70 games for 2 seasons)
    14Joe Veleno0.90Safe
    15Chase Pearson0.70Safe
    16Darren Helm3.85UFAexposed
    17Givani Smith0.00exposed
    18Adam Erne0.00exposed
    19Christoffer Ehn0.00exposed
    20Brendan Perlini0.00exposed
    21Ryan Kuffner0.00exposed
    22Dominic Turgeon0.00exposed
    23Taro Hirose0.00exposed
    RankPlayercaphit2021Expansion?Info
    1Dan DeKeyser5.00Protected
    2Filip Hronek4.50Protected
    3Patrik Nemeth3.00UFAexposedre-sign after expansion?
    4Dennis Cholowski1.50Protected
    5Moritz Seider0.90Safe
    6Jared McIsaac0.90Safe
    7Madison Bowey0.70exposedwould meet game requirements for D after playing 48 more games
    8Dylan McIlrath0.70UFAexposed
    9Oliwer Kaski0.00Safe
    10Gustav Lindström0.00exposed
    11Joe Hicketts0.00exposedwould meet game requirements for D after playing 64 more games
    12Brian Lashoff0.00UFAexposed
    13Green, Ericsson, Biega, Daley0.00UFAexposed2020 UFAs, let walk
    2021Expansion?Info
    12020 UFA goaltender6.00Protectednot Jimmy Howard
    2Jonathan Bernier3.00UFAexposed
    3Filip Larsson0.00Safe
    4Calvin Pickard0.70UFAexposed
    5Kaden Fulcher0.00exposedwill meet RFA requirement
    6Eric Comrie0.00exposedwill meet RFA requirement
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2019
  2. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    So there's the basic situation.

    First of all, no NMCs have to be protected. Nobody has it anymore.

    From today, this whole situation can differ very much if Yzerman is pulling trades once a month.

    But still, you can start creating scenarios.

    Like, if we sign Torey Krug as UFA, that would leave Cholowski unprotected. That could lead trades at next season, where we send guys like Athanasiou or Svechnikov with Cholowski for a different forward. Imo, getting Krug would make Cholowski easily expendable. They just play the same game, and Krug is in-prime.

    The the defence would be built around:

    Krug - Seider
    DeKeyser - Hronek
    Nemeth - Kaski/McIlrath/Lindström
    McIsaac

    Or, take players back who are outside the protection, or just take one single forward back to have that 7th forward to be protected. Now we have 8th guys, and the decision, imo, should be around Athanasiou and Svechnikov.

    If we trade either for futures, this problem would also disappear.

    All our other players (not named on the list) since 2015 drafts are outside the Seattle expansion.

    You have to be SIGNED and 3rd year pro at 2021 to be included. Guys like Chase Pearson are not, because he came from College, and was at Griffins as AHL amateur contract, and his expansion "clock" didn't start ticking until at this season.

    So Pearson is 1st year pro currently, like Kaski, because they were unsigned for NHL organization. 2nd year pros at next season.

    Unlike Zadina, he is already 2nd year pro and to be protected as 3rd year pro at 2021 summer.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2019
  3. Dotter

    Dotter life feels like a test I didn’t study for

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    If it was today, Glendenning is being taken. I believe he has real value and is a player teams want/need.
     
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  4. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Yeah, we should trade these guys at the 2020 or 2021 deadline, who has value.
     
  5. RedWingsfan55

    RedWingsfan55 Registered User

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    Basically this is why I continue to tell people that it is my opinion that yzerman wont make any major moves. The red wings are in a spot now that our core is protected or too young to be exposed. We wont lose anybody of value.

    Which if that is true, means he wont sign any big name free agent until after the expansion draft. So as a fan enjoy the next season and a half, but I'm ok with it. We need this rebuild.


    Back to the task at hand. I'd seriously consider doing the here take this 3rd round pick if you take nielson off our hands route.

    I also wouldnt be surprised if glendening is protected since we dont have enough high end forwards to protect, you could choose glendening as an option.
     
  6. 1878rgw

    1878rgw Registered User

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    Hi long time reading fan from overseas.

    Why is Kaski safe and Lindstrom exposed?
     
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  7. marcaractac

    marcaractac Registered User

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    Zadina will not have to be protected. He is a special case where he played in the AHL as an 18 year old. By only playing 9 NHL games last season, he will not require expansion draft protection. It has to do with his entry-level contract having not been activated last season.
     
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  8. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Lindström signed ELC over a year ago. He is on his 2nd year as pro and next season is his 3rd year.

    Kaski never had NHL contract before and this is his 1st season.
     
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  9. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Found a confirmation for this, from earlier The Athletic speculation. For 18-19 year old the 1st pro year slides.

    At same place was confirmation for that Lindström being exposed, because his ELC signing year was as 20-year-old.

    Then it makes things easier. We can protect both Athanasiou and Svechnikov.
     
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  10. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    I won't mind at all if he'll sign Krug as UFA and then we lose Cholowski year after. Still a huge win in big picture.

    Or maybe he trades Cholowski for another asset, outside expansion things. Maybe somebody has too many centers and open spot for defenceman on their protectings, and use that situation for your advance.
     
  11. RedWingsfan55

    RedWingsfan55 Registered User

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    I disagree heavily on krug. And I wouldnt get my Hope's up if I were you.

    I think everything he has done is pointing towards his own 2 years plan of tanking(once he took over) then looking to compete after that.
     
  12. Hockeyfannnn91

    Hockeyfannnn91 Registered User

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    Glendening is gonna be a ufa no? Why would they take him , from the list above id say theyd take givani smith who id have no interest in losing as we dont have anyone who plays that style.

    Sure fabbri is playing great now but id wait another year and see if he continues to play this well and/or doesnt suffer another horrible injury(not hoping he gets hurts but hes had two horrible knee injuries already and is more susceptible to getting another)
     
  13. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Mostly this.

    A) Glendening will proably be sold as UFA rental on the 2021 deadline for a contender.
    B) he will be UFA at time of the expansion draft.
    C) He can sign anywhere, why not to Seattle as UFA after the expansion?

    Nobody has to protect him at expansion. Same for other 2021 UFAs like Bernier, Helm, Nemeth, Filppula etc.
     

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