Ottawa Senators TSP Report: Top 10 Prospects Reports and Rankings

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
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I agree pretty good list. Gives recognition of the strength of the goalie pool and the depth of that middle tier. Hits it on the head about the absence of elite prospects. Hopefully we take the best offensive players we can next year to improve that.
 

JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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"The recent trade for Anisimov improved the Senators depth down the middle. He joins Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Chris Tierney as the Senators top three centres heading into camp. Even after the trade, that is probably the worst group of centres in the NHL."

It's almost laughable.

It's actually funnier that they didn't mention White

I look at the centre depth as White and Anisimov which is a weak 1 / 2 so let's hope that White takes a good step forward

And then Pageau and Tierney as 3 / 4 in no order and those two guys are pretty solid in those slots. Better than average I'd say.
 

TkachukNorris79

Registered User
Jan 27, 2018
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"The recent trade for Anisimov improved the Senators depth down the middle. He joins Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Chris Tierney as the Senators top three centres heading into camp. Even after the trade, that is probably the worst group of centres in the NHL."

It's almost laughable.
I mean it's pretty unfair to put any of those 3 ahead of Colin White at this point. Maybe Tierney. Brown will be here after the deadline and maybe by the draft it will look fantastic. But it's going to be rough this year with that group haha
 

JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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What is an elite prospect?

I was thinking about this today and based on recent memory the elite players are never really prospects per se. They go from the draft table to the opening night roster so they kind of never really were prospects in the way that you think of developing players.
 
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MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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I like that they think more highly about Formenton than many do here

Haha a lot more highly than I do. Hopefully they're right.

I dunno how to feel about this article. They give detailed scouting reports on the prospects, which would be great, but absolutely no credentials for the writer, so I have no idea whether to believe anything he says.

I do not like how everyone has given up on Gustavsson so readily. A year ago he was one of the top few U20 goalie prospects in the world. Had been Sweden's starter at U17s, U18s and U20s at the appropriate age. The size is a slight concern but it's not like he's under 6'.

A June birthday, he was barely 20 at the start of the season, and then Högberg got hurt, so he was up from the ECHL backing up McKenna. In his first four games he gave up two goals on 35 shots, four goals on 43 shots, three on 31 and one on 35.

Off to a pretty good start, that's a 2.5 GAA and .931 SVP. So good, in fact, it looked like he was on the verge of stealing the starting job from McKenna, as the latter was having a bit of a rough patch with ten goals against in three games; those last two starts of Gustavsson's were consecutive, with McKenna backing up.

Meanwhile, at the NHL level Condon had completely unravelled out of the gate, so they had to call up McKenna. As luck would have it, the first two games after McKenna's callup were back-to-backs against the offensive powerhouse Syracuse Crunch (who would finish first in the AHL in GF). I dunno if the pressure got to him or what, but he was pulled at 31:13 of the first game after five goals on 13 shots. They went back to him the second game and he was pulled at 27:56 after four goals on 13 shots.

Condon started the next game, against another high-powered offense in Toronto, and gave up six goals, playing the full game. The next night, again against Toronto, Gustavsson played the full game, giving up eight goals on 41 shots.

His next two games he started to settle down, giving up four goals each game, but they both went to overtime (a win and a SOL), and his SVP wasn't atrocious. From then on he was solid for the rest of the year. I did the math and if we just give him a flier on those first three games after McKenna was called up, he goes from a 3.38 and .887, to a 3.00 and .899.

Still not extraordinary numbers, but lets have a look at the other top five goalie prospects who played in the AHL last year and what they did in (and their age at the start of) their first AHL seasons:

Thatcher Demko (20) 45 - 2.68 - .907
Adin Hill (20) 40 - 3.16 - .906
Alex Nedeljkovic (20) 25 - 3.40 - .881
Ilya Samsonov (21) 37 - 2.70 - .898
Tristan Jarry (20) 33 - 2.69 - .905
Eric Comrie (20) 46 - 3.12 - .907

Ok I couldn't decide between Jarry and Comrie so that's six.

After that horrendous start for Nedeljkovic, just two seasons later he was already one of the best goalies in the AHL last year at 22.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
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What is an elite prospect?

I was thinking about this today and based on recent memory the elite players are never really prospects per se. They go from the draft table to the opening night roster so they kind of never really were prospects in the way that you think of developing players.

Only a few months after the draft; there’s not a lot of elite prospects in pools, who are they kidding lol?

How many teams have 3 better prospects than Brannstrom/Batherson/Brown if you exclude the “elite” prospects that just got drafted? If it’s all it takes to be ranked high, then next year Sens will have the best pool adding a top pick, another first (probably mid round) and three 2nds? Might even get another first if Dorion trades up

There’s a major circumstance to take into account here, Sens should have had another “elite” prospect but due to the Duchene trade, they didn’t have their first and ended up with the 19th overall instead. How quickly people forget but it’s only been 2 years since the team is bad and not 5 like those Pejorative Slurs (like the quote in the other thread regarding this subject) will try to sell to the gullible people

Also have to keep in mind that Brady Tkachuk could have still been a prospect right now but he graduated right away, so the pool could be Tkachuk, Batherson, Brannstrom, Brown, Thomson, JBD, Norris, Wolanin, Formenton, Lajoie, Jaros, Pinto, Balcers, goalies, etc

Then you have the next 2 drafts with 9 picks in the first 2 rounds instead of 4...

If that’s not good, then I don’t know what is

It’s the same (Toronto/haters/Fuhr) propaganda as usual, I have read that for over a decade now... our pools were “never that good” but yet we produced Karlsson, Stone, Chabot, Zibanejad, Hoffman, Lehner, Dzingel, Silfverberg, Turris*, White, Tkachuk, Ceci, Pageau, Smith, etc

All that in 10 years. Which teams have produced a better group of players in that span? Maybe those who consistently drafted high?
 
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LastWordArmy

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What is an elite prospect?

I was thinking about this today and based on recent memory the elite players are never really prospects per se. They go from the draft table to the opening night roster so they kind of never really were prospects in the way that you think of developing players.

Well there are the players drafted in 2019. Right now Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, and others are considered prospects.

There are also guys like Cale Makar, Cody Glass, Filip Zadina, Quinn Hughes, Vitali Kravtsov, Adam Boqvist, Martin Necas, Kirill Kaprizov, Noah Dobson, who could be considered amongst the elite prospects in the league and are not part of the 2019 draft.
 

LastWordArmy

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It's actually funnier that they didn't mention White

I look at the centre depth as White and Anisimov which is a weak 1 / 2 so let's hope that White takes a good step forward

And then Pageau and Tierney as 3 / 4 in no order and those two guys are pretty solid in those slots. Better than average I'd say.

My bad. No excuses. Somehow I had a brainfart and forgot to mention White. You are right. I've fixed that.

Not sure how I made such a stupid mistake.

Doesn't change the overall point though... Brown needs to steal a top 9 spot in training camp. If not he's likely just an injury fill-in for the first part of the season, but would come up to the Sens when Anisimov and Pageau are likely traded ahead of the deadline.
 

LastWordArmy

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I dunno how to feel about this article. They give detailed scouting reports on the prospects, which would be great, but absolutely no credentials for the writer, so I have no idea whether to believe anything he says.

Our organizational prospect rankings were featured in Vollman's latest book when he was looking at how to quantify the strength of each team's prospect pools. We were one of 4-5 rankings he used.

Then there was this at the 2019 Draft (which also happened at the 2018 Draft)





We also have credentials with CHL, AHL, and NHL teams.
 

DrEasy

Out rumptackling
Oct 3, 2010
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Let's put together an under-25 team, looking mostly at those who are already in, or close to making it to the big league:

Tkachuk - White - Batherson
Balcers - Brown - Duclair
Formenton - Norris - Abramov/Veronneau
Paul - Chlapik - Davidsson

Chabot - JBD
Wolanin - Brannstrom
Lajoie - Jaros

Hogberg
Gustavsson
Daccord

Further down the road: Lassi, Soogard, Tycho, Pinto, Crookshank

Am I missing anyone?
 
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LastWordArmy

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Only a few months after the draft; there’s not a lot of elite prospects in pools, who are they kidding lol?

How many teams have 3 better prospects than Brannstrom/Batherson/Brown if you exclude the “elite” prospects that just got drafted? If it’s all it takes to be ranked high, then next year Sens will have the best pool adding a top pick, another first (probably mid round) and three 2nds? Might even get another first if Dorion trades up

There’s a major circumstance to take into account here, Sens should have had another “elite” prospect but due to the Duchene trade, they didn’t have their first and ended up with the 19th overall instead. How quickly people forget but it’s only been 2 years since the team is bad and not 5 like those ******s (like the guy quoted) will try to sell to the gullible people

Also have to keep in mind that Brady Tkachuk could have still been a prospect right now but he graduated right away, so the pool could be Tkachuk, Batherson, Brannstrom, Brown, Thomson, JBD, Norris, Wolanin, Formenton, Lajoie, Jaros, Pinto, Balcers, goalies, etc

Then you have the next 2 drafts with 9 picks in the first 2 rounds instead of 4...

If that’s not good, then I don’t know what is

It’s the same (Toronto/haters/Fuhr) propaganda as usual, I have read that for over a decade now... our pools were “never that good” but yet we produced Karlsson, Stone, Chabot, Zibanejad, Hoffman, Lehner, Dzingel, Silfverberg, Turris*, White, Tkachuk, Ceci, Pageau, Smith, etc

All that in 10 years. Which teams have produced a better group of players in that span? Maybe those who consistently drafted high?

You might want to wait until we actually give a ranking of your prospect pool compared to other teams in the NHL before you go off on a huge rant on how we are underrating your pool.

Heck, I don't even know where I'm going to rank the Sens amongst the 31 NHL teams (actually writing the series helps me a lot in ranking each team). I can tell you this, I had them at 12 last August and that was before they added a bunch of prospects in the Karlsson, Stone, and Duchene trades, so its likely to be a top 10 pool this year, but I can't say exactly where until I'm done writing the whole league.
 

MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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Our organizational prospect rankings were featured in Vollman's latest book when he was looking at how to quantify the strength of each team's prospect pools. We were one of 4-5 rankings he used.

Then there was this at the 2019 Draft (which also happened at the 2018 Draft)





We also have credentials with CHL, AHL, and NHL teams.


Hm. Interesting. I don't care much for Sportsnet but Vollman is definitely a hero...

Just curious, if you don't mind, this Ben Kerr, does he have a background playing high-level hockey? (Doesn't come up on EP), is he a professional scout - by which I mean, not working for a pro team of course, but does your organization pay him to go around watching hockey games? Or is he compiling/curating scouting reports from another source(s)?
 

LastWordArmy

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Hm. Interesting. I don't care much for Sportsnet but Vollman is definitely a hero...

Just curious, if you don't mind, this Ben Kerr, does he have a background playing high-level hockey? (Doesn't come up on EP), is he a professional scout - by which I mean, not working for a pro team of course, but does your organization pay him to go around watching hockey games? Or is he compiling/curating scouting reports from someone else?

Playing high-level, no.

I'm in the Toronto-area and will go to OHL rinks within a 3 hour drive, as well as down to the states, to see prospects in person and am given credentials to go to said games. The site covers the expenses, and also pays me for my time. Its not a full-time job, as I have a day-job working as a lawyer as well. Obviously my regular job is what really pays the bills and this is a labour of love with some money. (To keep my two careers separate Ben Kerr is a pseudonym, as legal clients already don't like the fact that I have other clients and don't work their case 24/7... ). Outside of the area, the site pays for subscriptions for a ton of on-demand services I use to watch full video of games.

I was also interviewed by Dan Milstein's agency recently (around NHL Draft time), but unfortunately didn't get the job working with them as an agent.
 

LastWordArmy

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I'm guessing Lajoie was left off since he's played in the big leagues?

Rules for what is a prospect is that the player must be under 50 games played (including playoff games) and under 25 years old.

Lajoie played 56 games last year.

The rule has to be consistent for all teams, in order to rank the pools later.
 
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MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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Playing high-level, no.

I'm in the Toronto-area and will go to OHL rinks within a 3 hour drive, as well as down to the states, to see prospects in person and am given credentials to go to said games. The site covers the expenses, and also pays me for my time. Its not a full-time job, as I have a day-job working as a lawyer as well. Obviously my regular job is what really pays the bills and this is a labour of love with some money. (To keep my two careers separate Ben Kerr is a pseudonym, as legal clients already don't like the fact that I have other clients and don't work their case 24/7... ). Outside of the area, the site pays for subscriptions for a ton of on-demand services I use to watch full video of games.

I was also interviewed by Dan Milstein's agency recently (around NHL Draft time), but unfortunately didn't get the job working with them as an agent.

Cool, thanks. Sounds pretty respectable, particularly if you've got Vollman's endorsement. Ya f***ed up on Gustavsson though.:skeptic:
 
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MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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What is an elite prospect?

I was thinking about this today and based on recent memory the elite players are never really prospects per se. They go from the draft table to the opening night roster so they kind of never really were prospects in the way that you think of developing players.

Well, of the top ten scorers in the NHL this past season. Only about half of them were picks who went straight to the NHL. But I suppose until Kucherov put up 24 points in 17 AHL games, nobody understood just how good he might be, and he ended up playing 50+ NHL games that year, so then wasn't a prospect anymore. Nobody suspected quite what Marchand was going to turn into until maybe that World Cup of Hockey a few years ago. Even with Gaudreau running roughshod on the NCAA, there were still questions about his size at the NHL level, so I do see what you mean.

The line for what counts as "elite" is difficult to draw, but from the list the OP gave, it would be really difficult to argue against Cody Glass and Cale Makar. While Makar is maybe not as sure a thing as Hughes or Kakko, I'd say the ceilings are about equal.

And there is at least one (only one I'm aware of) surefire giveaway that a prospect is going to be a star at the NHL level. "Elite prospect" to me doesn't have to mean 100% they're goong to be an elite player, or else you could say it about almost nobody. To me an elite prospect is someone guaranteed to be at least an all-star, with a very good chance of being an elite player. When a U20 player puts up better than a point per game (or .75 for D) for an extended period in the AHL, that's an elite prospect by my definition. It doesn't happen often, and it's been a couple years now, but here are the only ones from the past ten years: John Carlson, William Nylander, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen. That's it.

Jakub Vrana was deadly close with 34 in 36. Washington is bringing him along slowly but watch out for him.
 
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JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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My bad. No excuses. Somehow I had a brainfart and forgot to mention White. You are right. I've fixed that.

Not sure how I made such a stupid mistake.

Doesn't change the overall point though... Brown needs to steal a top 9 spot in training camp. If not he's likely just an injury fill-in for the first part of the season, but would come up to the Sens when Anisimov and Pageau are likely traded ahead of the deadline.

Forgetting White doesn't change your analysis of the Sens centre depth? And you're looking for credibility in the hockey world? Really?

Saying you made a mistake and forgot him is one thing, suggesting doing so doesn't change the point...idk man
 
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Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
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Forgetting White doesn't change your analysis of the Sens centre depth? And you're looking for credibility in the hockey world? Really?

Saying you made a mistake and forgot him is one thing, suggesting doing so doesn't change the point...idk man
His point was the trade for Anisimov improved center depth but the group still remains one of the worst in the league. Adding White certainly changes the quality of our Centers, but does it push us out of the "probably the worst in the NHL" category? Honestly, I don't think it does, but at least there might be a debate with White.
 

Brannstorm

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Feb 15, 2016
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His point was the trade for Anisimov improved center depth but the group still remains one of the worst in the league. Adding White certainly changes the quality of our Centers, but does it push us out of the "probably the worst in the NHL" category? Honestly, I don't think it does, but at least there might be a debate with White.

I think Brown will get into the lineup sooner than later and show off his offensive potential. I also like Norris as a dark horse.

With the sheer number of prospects we have that play centre whom we may forget about like Chlapik, Batherson etc. someone might jump out.

This all may be a little optimistic, definitely hopeful, but the increase in talent on the wings alone should help our centres out. Batherson, Formenton?, Abramov?, etc. (I don't even want to list them, it hurts, I will forget someone).

So to conclude, if Brown comes up and plays well (which in my personal opinion:likely) that would put us with Brown-White-Anisimov-Pageau (Centres).... Two wiley old defensive veterans in Anisimov and Pageau...... and then two hopeful young studs. I like the balance, and Chabot, Wolanin (and maybe Brannstrom) isn't a bad D-core with Ron Hainsey helping mold the young guys into penalty killers and hopefully Zaitsev takes a step forward (or maybe a step towards more comfort in hise game, i don't know).
 

LastWordArmy

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Well, of the top ten scorers in the NHL this past season. Only about half of them were picks who went straight to the NHL. But I suppose until Kucherov put up 24 points in 17 AHL games, nobody understood just how good he might be, and he ended up playing 50+ NHL games that year, so then wasn't a prospect anymore. Nobody suspected quite what Marchand was going to turn into until maybe that World Cup of Hockey a few years ago. Even with Gaudreau running roughshod on the NCAA, there were still questions about his size at the NHL level, so I do see what you mean.

The line for what counts as "elite" is difficult to draw, but from the list the OP gave, it would be really difficult to argue against Cody Glass and Cale Makar. While Makar is maybe not as sure a thing as Hughes or Kakko, I'd say the ceilings are about equal.

And there is at least one (only one I'm aware of) surefire giveaway that a prospect is going to be a star at the NHL level. "Elite prospect" to me doesn't have to mean 100% they're goong to be an elite player, or else you could say it about almost nobody. To me an elite prospect is someone guaranteed to be at least an all-star, with a very good chance of being an elite player. When a U20 player puts up better than a point per game (or .75 for D) for an extended period in the AHL, that's an elite prospect by my definition. It doesn't happen often, and it's been a couple years now, but here are the only ones from the past ten years: John Carlson, William Nylander, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen. That's it.

Jakub Vrana was deadly close with 34 in 36. Washington is bringing him along slowly but watch out for him.

With CHL-NHL transfer rules, and players often choosing to do a couple years of college or stay in europe for a couple years post draft the number of players who are u20 and in the AHL is miniscule. We have maybe 5 a year? 10? Im not sure scoring in the AHL as a u20 is a good measure of elite prospect. Most players don't go there at such an age... elite or not.
 

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