Speculation: Ott moving up in the draft

[Taluss]

What would you want from the Sens for them to move up to the top 10? Most likely including our pick. Top 3 excluded, wouldn't make sence.

Sens fans what would you offer? I originally offered Tierney packaged with Ott 1st but I recieved a solid point on why that may not be the best idea...

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[780il]

Lucic + 8th for CLB 1st

 

[Eltuna]

4th overall for Ottawa’s unprotected 2020 1st

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Lucic + 8th for CLB 1st

What do you think of 8th overall + Sam Gagner for CLB 1st* + FLA 2nd (44th ov) + Tierney

*currently 19th - could go as high as 17th, can only go lower if they make the conference finals (27-31)

If you look at Schuchers draft pick value chart, 8th overall has a trade value of 629...

19th overall is 364, 44th overall is 196, meaning that the difference in value is 69 points (which is the value of a late 6th rounder). Given that Tierney would return at least a 3rd if we're being conservative and probably a high 2nd without being too optimistic, I think the value is there at least. Plus I think the Oilers have a need for a deeper talent pool just as much as they have a need to add high-end assets. I can see why Oilers would say no but I feel like it might be compelling at least. Tierney has 88pts in his last two seasons and is still just 24.

Here is the chart btw http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

 

[780il]

What do you think of 8th overall + Sam Gagner for CLB 1st* + FLA 2nd (44th ov) + Tierney

*currently 19th - could go as high as 17th, can only go lower if they make the conference finals (27-31)

If you look at Schuchers draft pick value chart, 8th overall has a trade value of 629...

19th overall is 364, 44th overall is 196, meaning that the difference in value is 69 points (which is the value of a late 6th rounder). Given that Tierney would return at least a 3rd if we're being conservative and probably a high 2nd without being too optimistic, I think the value is there at least. Plus I think the Oilers have a need for a deeper talent pool just as much as they have a need to add high-end assets. I can see why Oilers would say no but I feel like it might be compelling at least. Tierney has 88pts in his last two seasons and is still just 24.

Here is the chart btw http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

Gagner is only a 1 year dump and played pretty well for us at the #3rw spot.

Not worth it at all to move back from the 8th pick to get rid of his contract.

 

[Salva Mea]

why ? 16-32-44 very good picks..

there is no big difference between 3-10 10-20 in this year...

only if soderstrom available..: (

 

[McSuper]

What do you think of 8th overall + Sam Gagner for CLB 1st* + FLA 2nd (44th ov) + Tierney

*currently 19th - could go as high as 17th, can only go lower if they make the conference finals (27-31)

If you look at Schuchers draft pick value chart, 8th overall has a trade value of 629...

19th overall is 364, 44th overall is 196, meaning that the difference in value is 69 points (which is the value of a late 6th rounder). Given that Tierney would return at least a 3rd if we're being conservative and probably a high 2nd without being too optimistic, I think the value is there at least. Plus I think the Oilers have a need for a deeper talent pool just as much as they have a need to add high-end assets. I can see why Oilers would say no but I feel like it might be compelling at least. Tierney has 88pts in his last two seasons and is still just 24.

Here is the chart btw http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

Pass from me . I am ok with keeping Sam Gagner . He been ok to good for us so I do not see him as a dump . At 8 we will be getting a high impact C which we may need if we don't resign RNH in 2 years or a new GM trades him

 

[Captain Mountain]

why ? 16-32-44 very good picks..

there is no big difference between 3-10 10-20 in this year...

only if soderstrom available..: (

Columbus pick wont be 16th. I'm pretty sure that (unless teams like Colorado, Vegas and Dallas make the conference finals) it'll be 19th.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Gagner is only a 1 year dump and played pretty well for us at the #3rw spot.

Not worth it at all to move back from the 8th pick to get rid of his contract.

I wouldnt say the value in moving down is getting rid of his contract, though - if you look at value charts, Tierney + 19th + 44th is fair value as it is. Moving Gagner is kind of just a throw in. Either way, if you dont like the trade that is fair enough, but its not really "moving back from 8th to get rid of his contract" as much as what I thought could be a mutually beneficial deal where the Oil are able to add 3 solid young pieces to their prospect pool at the cost of 1, higher end young piece.

Pass from me . I am ok with keeping Sam Gagner . He been ok to good for us so I do not see him as a dump . At 8 we will be getting a high impact C which we may need if we don't resign RNH in 2 years or a new GM trades him

Fair enough! As mentioned above, I wasn't really including him as a dump. 19th + 44th + a mid 2nd is basically the going value of the 8th overall pick so I wasnt actually factoring Gagner in as negative value... if anything I would say he was a throw-in for salary purposes but with neutral value. That said, I get why Oilers fans wouldnt want to do this. But I just wanted to clarify the function of having Gagner in the trade. Its basically a way to upgrade to Tierney without needing to clear 3mil in a separate trade.

 

[780il]

I wouldnt say the value in moving down is getting rid of his contract, though - if you look at value charts, Tierney + 19th + 44th is fair value as it is. Moving Gagner is kind of just a throw in. Either way, if you dont like the trade that is fair enough, but its not really "moving back from 8th to get rid of his contract" as much as what I thought could be a mutually beneficial deal where the Oil are able to add 3 solid young pieces to their prospect pool at the cost of 1, higher end young piece.



Fair enough! As mentioned above, I wasn't really including him as a dump. 19th + 44th + a mid 2nd is basically the going value of the 8th overall pick so I wasnt actually factoring Gagner in as negative value... if anything I would say he was a throw-in for salary purposes but with neutral value. That said, I get why Oilers fans wouldnt want to do this. But I just wanted to clarify the function of having Gagner in the trade. Its basically a way to upgrade to Tierney without needing to clear 3mil in a separate trade.

I think we need the high end piece available at 8 more than the multiple lower picks.

Polite pass from us.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Columbus pick wont be 16th. I'm pretty sure that (unless teams like Colorado, Vegas and Dallas make the conference finals) it'll be 19th.

It actually cant go to 16th under any circumstances, because the 3 teams below CLB are all in the west and at most 2 teams can make the Western conference finals. So the only possible positions it can be are: 17, 18, 19, 28, 29, 30, 31. 19 is what it currently is, 18 is if one of C/V/D make the conference finals AND CLB doesn't make the conference finals, 17 is if two of C/V/D make the conference finals AND CLB doesn't make the conference finals - and then 28 is if CLB loses in the conference finals and none of C/V/D make the conference finals, 29 is if CLB loses in the conference finals and one of C/V/D loses in the conference finals, 30 is if CLB makes the finals and loses, 31 is if CLB wins the cup.

Pretty sure that is right and covers all the possible scenarios

I think we need the high end piece available at 8 more than the multiple lower picks.

Polite pass from us.

Makes sense! I just thought it was a thought worth exploring but I definitely see the case for passing

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Lucic + 8th for CLB 1st

Take CBJ 1st out, add in Mike Condon, then I could see that.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I could see something around a 13 for 18 swap with Ottawa taking an LTIRetired Luongo.

 

[Meeqs]

Ott has a bevy of young talented prospects, if you want to be realistic then you will have to start adding them along with other high picks to move up. Draft picks drop exponentially so it would take a lot more than a lot of people realize for a team to bite on this.

 

[Salva Mea]

Columbus pick wont be 16th. I'm pretty sure that (unless teams like Colorado, Vegas and Dallas make the conference finals) it'll be 19th.

true.. its 19... my mistake..

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Ott has a bevy of young talented prospects, if you want to be realistic then you will have to start adding them along with other high picks to move up. Draft picks drop exponentially so it would take a lot more than a lot of people realize for a team to bite on this.

Moving up/down early in the draft is very uncommon. Requires a lot of things to happen. I agree that I think people underrated the difficulty of moving up.

 

[justafan22]

I could see something around a 13 for 18 swap with Ottawa taking an LTIRetired Luongo.

Though his NTC expired this past september per cap friendly.

Your proposed deal is the Datsyuk scenario to a tee

 

[justafan22]

Moving up/down early in the draft is very uncommon. Requires a lot of things to happen. I agree that I think people underrated the difficulty of moving up.

Moving up in the 10-20 range happens often

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Though his NTC expired this past september per cap friendly.

Your proposed deal is the Datsyuk scenario to a tee

It'd a bit different than Datsyuk because there is actual money owing. (Although FLA can take Mike Condon to offset that since he is owed 3M against a 1.4M buried cap hit).

Maybe FLA does what Luongo desires, but I can't imagine they'd be happy about keeping his cap hit if they intend to give Bob and Panarin 22M and probably have to buy out or eat retained salary to move Reimer if they keep Luongo.

One solution might be to do an Orpik type deal. FLA deals Luongo to a team that will buy him out. FLA gets hit with 1.2M in cap recapture for three years and then sign Luongo to a league minimum deal.

 

[justafan22]

It'd a bit different than Datsyuk because there is actual money owing. (Although FLA can take Mike Condon to offset that since he is owed 3M against a 1.4M buried cap hit).

Maybe FLA does what Luongo desires, but I can't imagine they'd be happy about keeping his cap hit if they intend to give Bob and Panarin 22M and probably have to buy out or eat retained salary to move Reimer if they keep Luongo.

One solution might be to do an Orpik type deal. FLA deals Luongo to a team that will buy him out. FLA gets hit with 1.2M in cap recapture for three years and then sign Luongo to a league minimum deal.

I think that'll be the case.

 

[topshelf15]

Not worth it ,just keep what we have and look to draft our asses off in 2020

 

[KevinRedkey]

IMO Hughes, Kakko, Podkolzin, Cozens, Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, and Dach are the only players worth trading up for.

 

[Dan Kelly]

Pass from me . I am ok with keeping Sam Gagner . He been ok to good for us so I do not see him as a dump . At 8 we will be getting a high impact C which we may need if we don't resign RNH in 2 years or a new GM trades him

I feel that Gagner will play with the Oilers next year while C Ryan McLeod gets a year in at the AHL level, the when Sam is a UFA, it’s going to be bye bye time for Sam and hello time for McLeod, so I don’t believe Sam is going anywhere next season!

 

[StreetHawk]

What would you want from the Sens for them to move up to the top 10? Most likely including our pick. Top 3 excluded, wouldn't make sence.

Sens fans what would you offer? I originally offered Tierney packaged with Ott 1st but I recieved a solid point on why that may not be the best idea...

Who are you targeting and what spot are you realistically looking at?

The ask is going to be very different depending on which team is holding the pick.

Detroit, LA, Van should be rebuilding. So they would ask for futures. Col, Edm, Buf, Ana would entertain a deal if they get someone who helps them now.

 

[lwvs84]

Columbus pick wont be 16th. I'm pretty sure that (unless teams like Colorado, Vegas and Dallas make the conference finals) it'll be 19th.

I could legitimately seeing it drop to 18, Vegas is the only team I could see under Columbus making it to the conference finals and they do have a decent shot at it (not guaranteed, but the strongest of the lower seed teams).