OT: MLB's declining interest

[Galchenioretty]

This is actually a pretty common discussion around this point of the season, generally after the home opener games 2-3 of the season are very poorly attended, probably because so many fans go to game 1. Also baseball doesn't do as well now for a variety of reasons (a lot of competition in markets with NBA, NHL, final 4, Masters on tv. Not to mention the majority of kids still being in school and relatively crappy weather.

Baseball is popular, they do a great job with their online property, it's by far the most valuable in sports and once summer heats up and people are out of school you'll see attendance spike.

 

[Acesolid]

Champions this century

Yankees
Red Sox
Angels
Marlins
White Sox
Cardinals
Giants
Phillies
Diamondbacks

Nearly a 3rd of the league has one it all in the last 10 years. But baseball has no parity

Exactly, there are bottom of the barrel teams every year and a constant bottom of the barrel team (AKA the Pittsburgh Pirates). But it's the same thing in the NHL.

For example, this year the Padres, the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles look very good, even with low budgets.

There's much more parity in Baseball then in Basketball, that's one thing thats for sure!

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

If I were running baseball I'd be more worried about the sharp decline in amateur participation. Fewer kids and adults play the game, and fewer MLB players are US natives. Much like the NBA, baseball is going to have to start looking overseas for an audience. That's a problem for a league which is about as nationalistic as it comes.

I think baseball is on a relative decline and has been since the 70s from being the quintessential American sport to merely being one of multiple sports vying for attention.

Decline in participation numbers isn't unique to baseball either. Hockey in Canada has been complaining about that for a while too. It's maybe the natural fate of a "national pastime" as the population and media landscape diversifies and more and more leisure options appear as well.

It has long been my opinion that baseball is an outdated sport from the pre-television era. It just so happened to be a team sport, unlike boxing or horse racing, and so it survived on team loyalties and traditions after its contemporaries faded.

I don't know about that. How exactly does a sport become "outdated"? Cricket is doing well for itself and it's a very similar game.

Soon, time and demographic trends will catch up with MLB and at that point I don't think it will be financially viable in its present state.

Even if it declines by 50% it's still miles ahead of hockey which seems to maintain a 30 team pro league. There's something like twenty times more children playing baseball or softball than there are kids playing hockey.

I myself don't find much joy in baseball but it's gonna remain one of the most popular sports in the U.S. in the foreseeable future.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

There's much more parity in Baseball then in Basketball, that's one thing thats for sure!

8 champions in 30 years!! How anyone watches that ****, I still don't know.

 

[HabsByTheBay]

Baseball's not perfect (definitely with games being too long) but..

- April attendance always stinks, even more so with the start of the season being moved up

- Baseball's always had an older fanbase than the other sports. Older fanbases aren't exactly a bad thing, since they make more money. I'd rather have that than the NBA's problem, which is that once people hit adulthood (and get real money) they stop caring about the NBA.

 

[Roadrage]

Champions this century

Yankees
Red Sox
Angels
Marlins
White Sox
Cardinals
Giants
Phillies
Diamondbacks

Nearly a 3rd of the league has one it all in the last 10 years. But baseball has no parity

Can that be broken down in terms of team payroll compared to rest of league for their winning season? My guess is most of them were in top 10.

 

[htpwn]

I have a feeling the 11,000 number was more represenative of the opposing team (Oakland) then the Jays themselves. They drew over 110,000 fans in the first series against the Twins, only the third time in the 21st century they have done that (both times were against the Red Sox). There's a lot of hype surrounding this year's Jays team, unfortunately the fact that it is nearly impossible for the team to make the playoffs hurts them. The numbers should (I hope) bounce back to around 20,000, but who knows.

 

[Rick Nash homework]

Baseball's not perfect (definitely with games being too long) but..

- April attendance always stinks, even more so with the start of the season being moved up

- Baseball's always had an older fanbase than the other sports. Older fanbases aren't exactly a bad thing, since they make more money. I'd rather have that than the NBA's problem, which is that once people hit adulthood (and get real money) they stop caring about the NBA.

The NHL fanbase with it's young tech-savvy fans and keeping it's older blue collar fans makes it a reason why the NHL has one of the most significant fans in all of North America sports.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Decline in participation numbers isn't unique to baseball either. Hockey in Canada has been complaining about that for a while too. It's maybe the natural fate of a "national pastime" as the population and media landscape diversifies and more and more leisure options appear as well.

You're probably onto something with the cultural standpoint, but in hockey's case there are factors like cost, danger, and the narrow skillset that hamper participation. Baseball is one of the cheapest, safest, least-physically-demanding sports on earth. Anyone with a backyard can play it (I did as a kid) yet kids don't seem very interested anymore. There has to be something behind that.

I don't know about that. How exactly does a sport become "outdated"?

It's a slow, gentlemanly, detail-oriented sport that translates poorly to television. As a live-spectator sport in the early 20th, it made more sense than it does today. TBH, when I go to baseball games it's more for the stadium experience than to watch baseball.

Even if it declines by 50% it's still miles ahead of hockey which seems to maintain a 30 team pro league. There's something like twenty times more children playing baseball or softball than there are kids playing hockey.

I myself don't find much joy in baseball but it's gonna remain one of the most popular sports in the U.S. in the foreseeable future.

By "financially viable in its present state" I mean MLB is going to have to get salaries under control or risk bankruptcy. The Tigers lost $30 million last year, which makes even the Coyotes pale in comparison. Something has to give between the league and the union -- expenses can't keep going up and up while revenue stays more or less the same.

 

[Ogopogo*]

The financial model in MLB is killing interest in some cities. Personally, if I lived in KC, Pittsburgh or San Diego, I would have a tough time being excited about the MLB. MLB needs a hard cap and floor much like hockey. It is a joke that Boston adds yet another superstar by taking the only one the Padres had. Baseball is a great game with the best history of any sport and the lustre is being eroded by a ridicuoulously stupid economic model. Fix the model or the crowds will continue to shrink.

The exciting news is, the union head that has destroyed baseball is now the union head in hockey. Hooray!

BTW, I love baseball and it sickens me to see it in such ill-repair.

 

[MayDay]

I like baseball, but if I were the Baseball Commissioner with absolute powers, I would do the following:

1) Shorten the regular season by at least 20-30 games. It's just too freaking long. Starts too soon, ends too late. To make the cut, perhaps I would get rid of interleague play, go back to the way it was in the old days. Made the World Series more special, when it was the only time all season the two leagues would meet.

2) Use some of the time gained in step #1 to expand the playoffs. 6 teams per league oughtta do it.

3) Hard salary cap and hard salary floor. No more Yankees and Red Sox signing every top free agent that becomes available and spending more than half the league combined. No more Royals and Pirates spending peanuts on salaries and pocketing their revenue-sharing checks.

4) Instant replay available to be used for all close calls (except for calling balls and strikes, which will remain the umpire's judgment). Any potential home-run, fair-foul call, safe-out call, plays at the plate, and so on are eligible to be reviewed. There's no reason nowadays to have to accept blatantly erroneous calls anymore. In order to limit the number of replay delays this would introduce into each game, I would limit replays to a couple times per game by going with a "coach's challenge" system, as in the NFL.

and this last idea is a bit more "out there" but I think it has potential

5) Borrow a page from basketball and institute a "pitch clock" (maybe 30 seconds). Like the "shot clock" in basketball, this will serve to keep the game moving. If the pitcher doesn't deliver a pitch when the pitch clock expires, it's counted as an automatic ball and the clock resets. If the batter is out of the batter's box when the clock expires, it's an automatic strike instead.

 

[htpwn]

5) Borrow a page from basketball and institute a "pitch clock" (maybe 30 seconds). Like the "shot clock" in basketball, this will serve to keep the game moving. If the pitcher doesn't deliver a pitch when the pitch clock expires, it's counted as an automatic ball and the clock resets. If the batter is out of the batter's box when the clock expires, it's an automatic strike instead.

I seem to remember that there is an existing rule that limits the time pitchers can take, however it is rarely enforced. Sometimes you have to wonder if the umps do their research, a pitcher like Matszuaka in Boston should be on a short leash for something like that.

 

[DouglasQuaid]

I'm a big baseball fan, and even I feel that the salary-competitive structure is so flawed that its not exciting anymore. If you're a fan of the Yankees/Red Sox/Phillies ok, but if not its really depressing sometimes. For the fan's sake, changes are needed, however its likely not gonna happen. The model for small market owners has become simple, collect revenue sharing checks, spend as little as possible on payroll and be profitable. Why risk losing money to field a competitive team when you have this guarantee?

However we should note that this is the worst drawing time of the year normally.

I completely agree with this. I'm a Red Sox fan and even I think the salary structure is ridiculous. I was psyched to get Carl Crawford this year, but really there were what - 3 teams with a legit shot at signing him? Its a joke.

As for the time of year, I'll usually watch opening weekend, then rarely until about mid June. I won't get right into it until usually the beginning of August where I'm to the point that I actually need to catch the game.

I think also, above the other most popular sports in North America, baseball is a very generational game. I'd have been into hockey no matter what, its exciting, fast, etc. Baseball requires much more of an understanding, in my opinion anyway. If my dad didn't teach me the game, and the intricacies of it, I'd likely have never been interested at all.

Its also a long developing game which takes patience to watch, football and basketball especially require a much shorter attention span. Could be a reason for declining interest.

 

[MayDay]

I seem to remember that there is an existing rule that limits the time pitchers can take, however it is rarely enforced. Sometimes you have to wonder if the umps do their research, a pitcher like Matszuaka in Boston should be on a short leash for something like that.

A clock rule needs to have real teeth in order to be enforced, and that means a penalty greater than the umpire telling the pitcher to keep it moving once in a while.

In basketball, if the team doesn't shoot when the shot clock expires, they forfeit possession of the ball.

In football, failing to hike the ball before the play clock expires leads to a Delay of Game penalty and loss of 5 yards.

If baseball is serious about keeping the game moving, it needs to institute its own penalties for failing to do so. My ideas were only one possible suggestion for how it could work.

 

[Confucius]

A clock rule needs to have real teeth in order to be enforced, and that means a penalty greater than the umpire telling the pitcher to keep it moving once in a while.

In basketball, if the team doesn't shoot when the shot clock expires, they forfeit possession of the ball.

In football, failing to hike the ball before the play clock expires leads to a Delay of Game penalty and loss of 5 yards.

If baseball is serious about keeping the game moving, it needs to institute its own penalties for failing to do so. My ideas were only one possible suggestion for how it could work.

30 seconds goes by...ball 1, 30 seconds goes by...ball2, repeat

 

[Deuce Awesome]

The wife got sweet tickets to a Jays game a couple of years ago. Right behind home plate on the ground or whatever. Free hot dogs and the like.


Still left in the 6th inning, I was falling asleep.


I used to love ball back when the Jays had a team in the 90's, since then I have drifted away.

Some things that would make me interested again.

1) Speed up the game. Never mind checking the runners and stepping off the mound and scratching your balls. Five seconds is all you should need to launch a fastball.

2) Playoff format. Make it like the NHL where the top 8 teams make it into the post season. The wild card introduction was a nice start but still not enough. This would be a nice compromise to the salary cap which will never happen.

 

[Confucius]

The wife got sweet tickets to a Jays game a couple of years ago. Right behind home plate on the ground or whatever. Free hot dogs and the like.


Still left in the 6th inning, I was falling asleep.


I used to love ball back when the Jays had a team in the 90's, since then I have drifted away.

Some things that would make me interested again.

1) Speed up the game. Never mind checking the runners and stepping off the mound and scratching your balls. Five seconds is all you should need to launch a fastball.

2) Playoff format. Make it like the NHL where the top 8 teams make it into the post season. The wild card introduction was a nice start but still not enough. This would be a nice compromise to the salary cap which will never happen.

Much like the fans in poor hockey markets, I need a contender to get into baseball.

 

[wjhl2009fan]

The wife got sweet tickets to a Jays game a couple of years ago. Right behind home plate on the ground or whatever. Free hot dogs and the like.


Still left in the 6th inning, I was falling asleep.


I used to love ball back when the Jays had a team in the 90's, since then I have drifted away.

Some things that would make me interested again.

1) Speed up the game. Never mind checking the runners and stepping off the mound and scratching your balls. Five seconds is all you should need to launch a fastball.

2) Playoff format. Make it like the NHL where the top 8 teams make it into the post season. The wild card introduction was a nice start but still not enough. This would be a nice compromise to the salary cap which will never happen.

If they ever were to go with a 16 team play offs they would have to cut around 60 games off the schedule.

 

[Mathradio]

If they ever were to go with a 16 team play offs they would have to cut around 60 games off the schedule.

Maybe cut a team's schedule from 160-ish to 150, and then you can have 16 teams in the playoffs.

 

[tp71]

I have a feeling the 11,000 number was more represenative of the opposing team (Oakland) then the Jays themselves. They drew over 110,000 fans in the first series against the Twins, only the third time in the 21st century they have done that (both times were against the Red Sox). There's a lot of hype surrounding this year's Jays team, unfortunately the fact that it is nearly impossible for the team to make the playoffs hurts them. The numbers should (I hope) bounce back to around 20,000, but who knows.

Yea, I think it had something to do with that, also the Leafs were playing an actual meaningful game for once down the street. Once the Leafs season ends, I bet we see the crowds go back up a bit.

 

[Pure West]

the thing is with baseball, it`s not about single game attendance so much as it is about full season attendance and non-attendance revenue streams.

toronto still makes 10-20M a year (forbes numbers), and they are 26th in MLB revenue.

the only big issue the MLB has is the yankees, as they bring in 200M more a season than the next highest teams. With the yankees, MLB average revenue is 196M. W/o them it is 189M. Baseball needs more/better revenue sharing.

MLB's revenue sharing is amongst the most extensive in sports when you consider the
amount of local revenue shared. Revenue sharing if anything, IS the problem. Without those hefty revenue sharing checks, Florida, Pittsburgh etc. would actually have some incentive to take a risk and actually increase payroll to field a competitive team. The way its set up now, those teams have no reason to do it

The last thing MLB needs is more revenue sharing. What they need is a salary cap.

As far as the overall decline in the sport goes, its just kind of the way it has evolved, as basketball, football and even soccer and hockey have grabbed a greater share. MLB though is still #2 in most markets, and probably #1 in Boston and New York. You may be surprised by the TV ratings most team's get. They aren't as reliant on gate revenue as you may think.

 

[wjhl2009fan]

Maybe cut a team's schedule from 160-ish to 150, and then you can have 16 teams in the playoffs.

One of the biggest issue for alot of fans is the season is to long if you just cut 10 games off and have 16 teams in thats not going to help you need to cut more then 10 games off atleast 20.

 

[obsenssive*]

He meant Fahrenheit i do believe there sunshine

I know that. I did the conversion and wasn't sure how 8C overnight lows could be considered "cold"

 

[Rocket]

But the difference is, in Cricket, the game's fast as ****. There's no commercial breaks, there's no players taking their sweet time around the mound. They play every ball and every wicket, so the game moves on. I agree with you in baseball they probably could cut it down an hourish or more if they quit stepping out, wandering off the mound, etc. every 2 seconds.

This. I'm a fan of both sports but baseball does move very slowly because of the pitchers taking so much time between pitches and the batters stepping out of the box time to time. Shot clock may be a good rule to impliment here to speed up the game. Maybe ICC's recent goal of making cricket more popular in the US (with the new deal signed with ESPN) will light some fire under MLB's butt to keep baseball moving in the right direction.

I like baseball, but if I were the Baseball Commissioner with absolute powers, I would do the following:

1) Shorten the regular season by at least 20-30 games. It's just too freaking long. Starts too soon, ends too late. To make the cut, perhaps I would get rid of interleague play, go back to the way it was in the old days. Made the World Series more special, when it was the only time all season the two leagues would meet.

2) Use some of the time gained in step #1 to expand the playoffs. 6 teams per league oughtta do it.

3) Hard salary cap and hard salary floor. No more Yankees and Red Sox signing every top free agent that becomes available and spending more than half the league combined. No more Royals and Pirates spending peanuts on salaries and pocketing their revenue-sharing checks.

4) Instant replay available to be used for all close calls (except for calling balls and strikes, which will remain the umpire's judgment). Any potential home-run, fair-foul call, safe-out call, plays at the plate, and so on are eligible to be reviewed. There's no reason nowadays to have to accept blatantly erroneous calls anymore. In order to limit the number of replay delays this would introduce into each game, I would limit replays to a couple times per game by going with a "coach's challenge" system, as in the NFL.

and this last idea is a bit more "out there" but I think it has potential

5) Borrow a page from basketball and institute a "pitch clock" (maybe 30 seconds). Like the "shot clock" in basketball, this will serve to keep the game moving. If the pitcher doesn't deliver a pitch when the pitch clock expires, it's counted as an automatic ball and the clock resets. If the batter is out of the batter's box when the clock expires, it's an automatic strike instead.

Some good ideas there, especially the Instant Review System. It's not "out there" at all. Cricket already moved to this century with this system where teams are given 2 reviews each to send important decisions upstairs to the 3rd umpire who gets a close up look at the plays and either upholds the original decisions or overrules them. Takes a minute or so but it gets a lot more important calls right, and the suspense during that time is great for the players and fans. Baseball needs something like this.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

2) Playoff format. Make it like the NHL where the top 8 teams make it into the post season. The wild card introduction was a nice start but still not enough. This would be a nice compromise to the salary cap which will never happen.

There has actually been talk of expanding the wild card to two teams in each conference. It has not been explained how that would work. My guess would be that the two wild card teams would face each other in a best 2 out 3 series with the winner facing the best team in their conference. Having a short series will give the winner a fighting chance at succeeding in later rounds and won't impact the length of the baseball season significantly.