I always love re-alignment chatter. My idea would be assuming, no league swapping.
The Rockies are the odd-team out. Could swap Rockies and DBacks, but I can't imagine they would want a division with 3 ETZ teams and 1 PTZ team. Could also swap Reds and Rockies, but they will want to keep the Cubs-Reds-Cards together, imo.
I don't think they'd try to shoe-horn COL into a division with the ETZ teams. Because the AL West has three PTZ teams and 2 CTZ teams (one of which spent 50 years in the NL), I think it makes more sense to embrace some swapping.
While each team has veto rights on a league change, I think two factors make it likely a switch or two happens:
#1 - There's 8 teams in the MTZ/PTZ (without knowing who is expanding). Whatever the schedule, it would behoove COL to be in the West for TV revenue. They can sell more TV ads when they're playing at 7 and 8 pm local, than at 5 p.m local.
#2 - The DH is going to come to the NL at some point, and probably sooner rather than later. The MLBPA is going to want it in the next CBA (because that means 15 more "Starters" making more money than bench players.
The NL owners, who have fought it for decades over financial reasons are facing the new reality of modern baseball. And those include:
- Starting pitchers throwing less and less innings per game. This is crushing the old "NL Strategy Argument." The choice of "leave him in or take him out" is almost never a difficult decision, it's basically automatic. It IS more entertaining to see what moves are made late in games when the pitcher's spot comes up.
- Analytics are showing GMs that the best way to be successful is limiting RISK. This mostly applies to free agency. Teams who are underachieving are doing so because they were counting on players signed to big money, and those guys end up being hurt. The DH is a way to reduce risk.
Take the Mets for example. They've got awesome starting pitching, and at times this year, their lineup of DL'd players is more impressive than their lineup of healthy players. Bruce, Cespedes, Conforto, Wright. All of those guys not only have been hurt, but have PLAYED HURT because they didn't think it was bad enough to warrant a DL stint and made things worse. David Wright lost his career because he broke a bone in his back making a tag... and played
22 more games before realizing he wasn't right. Bruce this year did the same thing. He could barely move in the OF.
The DH lets you get guys in those scenarios off their feet in the field. Let them DH for a while until they feel healthy enough to take the field. And when they don't feel healthy and get a second opinion and go on the DL, they've done a lot less damage.
- A huge part of reducing risk is the fact that starting pitchers make big money and no one wants to risk their ace getting hurt batting, like when Jacob deGrom missed a start because he hyperextended his elbow SWINGING THE BAT. Or when the Yankees had a pitcher pull both hammies on the bases in interleague.
Personally, I'd advocate for a revised DH rule to be adopted by both leagues: one player is designated for the STARTING pitcher only. Kind of like volleyball's libero. He's a "free sub" for the SP when the SP is in the game, listed on the lineup card separately. If he is used, he comes out of the game when the SP does. If he's NOT USED, he's eligible off the bench.
This adds strategy to the game. The late-game NL style changes have to be made (in both leagues). Plus you have to decide WHO to DH and where to hit your pitcher's spot. You bat a David Ortiz DH third... well, once your SP is out, you're losing that bat late in the game and your pitcher is in the 3 hole. You can use it to rest guys - big bats taking "a day off" get two ABs and that's it.
If your SP comes to the plate in a sacrifice situation, or with no one on, 2 out. Or you have a SP who can actually hit (Bumgarner, the Mets), just have the SP bat and save your DH guy for later. Or you could use a speed guy at DH if your SP reaches base, he's just a courtesy runner!
But I digress.
