Speculation: OT: Do you think the Tampa Bay Lightning can or will be the next NHL dynasty? (Edit: hahaha, nope)

Hawkaholic

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Dec 19, 2006
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We don’t know who the BPA is right now. GMs get it wrong in every draft. I’m just saying if it’s close, which it appears to be, don’t neglect really good D-men just to load up on forward talent that might be perceived to be slightly better on draft day.
Yeah, but your silly for not wanting Hughes and wanting Byram instead.
 

piteus

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Dec 20, 2015
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After what happened to UVA last year, I'm not laughing. Trust me ... its sucks to be a Tampa fan right now.
 

AmericanDream

Thank you Elon!
Oct 24, 2005
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Well if a #1 D makes that much of a difference, even on a team as loaded as Tampa, then is there any question we should be taking Byram?

Also, are the Devils and Rangers totally stupid for passing on Byram?
they are not stupid to pass on Byram if you feel Hughes is the next Kane/Marner and Kakko the next Rantanen/Matthews hybrid I would take those two ahead of Byram as well.

the only way teams will take a dman #1 OV is when the gap is just too big to ignore between him and the rest like it was with Dahlin. Look at Makar and where he went - right now you might be able to make a case that kid could be the #1 pick, but still so much up in the air. Byram just doesn't have that gap between him, Hughes or Kakko...some might not even see Byram as being a Doughty/Trouba lite...it all comes down to who is better at projecting where these kids truly will be - just like CBJ took PLD over Pool Party and people on here were shocked...seems to have worked out just fine eh??
 

pvr

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Jan 22, 2008
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I’d definitely take him No. 1 as the Hawks if other teams weren’t offering a package that included a top defenseman for the pick. Like I said on lottery night, I am glad the Hawks got No. 3 as opposed to 1 or 2 for this exact reason. It forces them to do the right thing. Taking “BPA” every year is what Edmonton did.

It wouldn’t shock me if Byram is off the board when the Hawks pick. There is a big dropoff after the top 3 and no other defensemen at Byram’s level in this draft.
The only way I can see that happening is if Kakko went first, and the Rangers weren’t sold on Hughes as a center going forward. Byram picked, and bam, Hawks get Hughes!!!
 
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RememberTheRoar

“I’m not as worried about the 5-on-5 scoring.”
Oct 21, 2015
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That's me in the corner
they are not stupid to pass on Byram if you feel Hughes is the next Kane/Marner and Kakko the next Rantanen/Matthews hybrid I would take those two ahead of Byram as well.

the only way teams will take a dman #1 OV is when the gap is just too big to ignore between him and the rest like it was with Dahlin. Look at Makar and where he went - right now you might be able to make a case that kid could be the #1 pick, but still so much up in the air. Byram just doesn't have that gap between him, Hughes or Kakko...some might not even see Byram as being a Doughty/Trouba lite...it all comes down to who is better at projecting where these kids truly will be - just like CBJ took PLD over Pool Party and people on here were shocked...seems to have worked out just fine eh??

But the point CS is making is that your forwards essentially don't matter without a #1 D.

He's arguing the best regular season team in recent memory would miss the playoffs without a #1 D.

So even with exceptional forwards, that Tampa team misses the playoffs without that one guy according to CS.
 

ClydeLee

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Mar 23, 2012
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Hedman had never missed a playoff game, and Stralman had been healthy for all but one of their playoff runs. McDonagh hasn't been hurt.
Mcdonagh has a lot. He was notably hurt in the 2015 playoffs playing with a broken foot when Tampa then beat the Rangers.

I'm not just talking about in playoffs or in playoffs for the team with the outside guys. The players they then added, who had a history of battling though injuries and playing worse with added milage on them. Those are moves I'm not a fan of but get praised because they appear to be discounts.
 

ColdSteel2

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Aug 27, 2010
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Yeah, but your silly for not wanting Hughes and wanting Byram instead.

I know it’s silly, but I’m still happy we got No. 3 to select Byram. I don’t want to convince people to share that opinion, just voicing it. Top pairing defenders are much harder to acquire than top line wings. It’s really easy to fall into a trap where a team is loaded with forwards but can’t win because the defense and goaltending aren’t good enough. That’s just my outlook on it.

The game is always changing though, maybe in the near future teams will be able to get away with an offense only approach to roster building. Maybe teams will be able to put players like Hughes at 1C and win. Maybe all you will need are PMDs and a stable of scoring forwards. It all depends on how soft/small/fast the league ends up getting. I’d prefer a hybrid approach between traditional net out and the more offensive minded guys. We already have the offensive minded guys covered IMO.
 
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AmericanDream

Thank you Elon!
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But the point CS is making is that your forwards essentially don't matter without a #1 D.

He's arguing the best regular season team in recent memory would miss the playoffs without a #1 D.

So even with exceptional forwards, that Tampa team misses the playoffs without that one guy according to CS.
I just don't view things as that cut and dry. So many things go right/wrong for teams in the playoffs. I see some people saying that Tampa lost because they didn't have two of their top 3 dmen - but that just isn't true. They lost because they didn't score more goals than the other team, simple I know. They had the firepower all healthy and playing but simply shit the bed. I am not saying Hedman isn't a huge factor there, he is - but they STILL should have won without him because of the overall talent they had.

To further illustrate my point about things aren't as clear, cut and dry as we want them to be -

Look at our Cup runs - look at those rosters. So if we say defense is the most important part to a teams success, then if we didn't have Kane do we win any of those cups? If we didn't have Toews do we win any of those cups? if we didn't have Keith do we win any of those cups? I am pretty comfortable saying that any of those scenarios would likely be true which is why you need a complete team and one position doesn't simply trump the other. I personally believe a true #1D is harder to find and keep than a #1C/F - that doesn't mean I automatically will put that player ahead of the forwards in that draft..there has to be some context there for me.

If this years draft had these top 3 players ranked - Hischier, Patrick and Byram - those are the top 3 players for this draft, I am 100% going Byram over the other two because the gap is just too big for me to not pick him.
But this year is Hughes, Kakko and Byram - the gap isn't big at all, in fact I think both of those forwards are star level players and I would still draft them 1-2 over Byram...maybe it doesn't make sense what I am saying, it just isn't a simple take #1D over forwards situation for me.
 

ColdSteel2

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The only way I can see that happening is if Kakko went first, and the Rangers weren’t sold on Hughes as a center going forward. Byram picked, and bam, Hawks get Hughes!!!

Yup. That’s also how I see it unfolding if it happens. Wouldn’t be bad to end up with Hughes. We are in a great spot.
 

No Fun Shogun

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If we get either Hughes or Kakko, I'll do laps naked out of pure delight.

I'm not expecting it. Devils and Rags aren't run by total morons, all signs point to there be a clear first two options. At most, maybe the Devils overthink and go with Kakko and give the Rags a gift.
 

HeisenBaez

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Nov 3, 2008
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If we get either Hughes or Kakko, I'll do laps naked out of pure delight.

I'm not expecting it. Devils and Rags aren't run by total morons, all signs point to there be a clear first two options. At most, maybe the Devils overthink and go with Kakko and give the Rags a gift.

To not take either Kakko or Hughes at 1 and 2 and go with anybody else would be the clinical definition of "smartest guy in the room" syndrome. The only other decision for either is a trade down and they would need a haul to even consider trading down.

Devils and Rangers should keep it simple.
 

ColdSteel2

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If we get either Hughes or Kakko, I'll do laps naked out of pure delight.

I'm not expecting it. Devils and Rags aren't run by total morons, all signs point to there be a clear first two options. At most, maybe the Devils overthink and go with Kakko and give the Rags a gift.

Would it have been overthinking things to take Hossa much higher in his draft year? What about Erik Karlsson in his? If a GM has someone higher on his board than everyone else and is too worried about what other people would think to pull the trigger, that’s overthinking it IMO.
 
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No Fun Shogun

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Would it have been overthinking things to take Hossa much higher in his draft year? What about Erik Karlsson in his? If a GM has someone higher on his board than everyone else and is too worried about what other people would think to pull the trigger, that’s overthinking it IMO.

Based on the information at the time? Yeah? I'm not suggesting that Hughes and Kakko are guaranteed to be the best players this draft year for the next 15 years. But the general scouting consensus right now seems to suggest that those two are the best guys right now and projected as well.

For all we know there's a fifth rounder this year that'll end up as the next great one that was just a very late bloomer and decades from now a team will be credited for amazing foresight for taking him so late and how much of a steal it was disregarding the fact that they passed over him four times and just got insanely lucky because one scout just kind of liked him.
 
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Toews2Bickell

It's Showtime
Nov 24, 2013
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Them changing their formula too much because of a small sample size where Vas played his worst hockey of the year and Hedman was out would be a mistake. More grit wouldn't change the fact that their best players didn't show up. Thats what cost them the series.
 

HawkNut

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This is all the more reason to appreciate the Cup years. Teams like Winnipeg, Tampa and Calgary looked built to make runs at it with first round exits.
 
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RayP

Tf
Jan 12, 2011
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This is all the more reason to appreciate the Cup years. Teams like Winnipeg, Tampa and Calgary looked built to make runs at it with first round exits.

Not only that, but they've had a few years to make their runs and have all come up short when they have managed to go deep.
 

Hattrick Kane

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Oct 8, 2018
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Lets not talk in absolutes. Heiskanen and Makar will easily be better than Hischier and Patrick. But that wasn’t really the case on draft day. We simply have to wait and see what these players actually become.
 

Marotte Marauder

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Aug 10, 2008
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I’m sure it has to do with corsi, fenwick, number of shots, etc...

That can't be right:sarcasm: Any good statistician could explain TB's demise much better than that.

Maybe people that are dismissing the grit are missing something. To me, a gritty character player is the kind that will go through a wall to get it done. They have been doing that most of their playing days to get where they are. They are also great on the bench and in the room not letting guys get down too far. These guys are the Jeep 4.0 engine that doesn't die.

Skill players have gotten there by being skilled, a totally different type of player and mindset. Both need each other to get it done and win a Cup.
 
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Blue Liner

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All the grit talk regarding Tampa is just odd to me. Were the rosters all that much different with the teams of theirs that have been to the Cup Final and Conference Finals twice in their recent run? They had Columbus down 3-0 in Game 1 and on the ropes and blew the lead and never figured out how to score a goal again. Mentally fizzled. But this is largely the same bunch that has had long runs of late and were in the Final not long ago.

Making a major roster overhaul in the name of grit in reaction to these series would be a mistake, in my opinion. I think this was a team that was able to coast into the playoffs and mentally imploded after choking away what should have been a Game 1 win. This same group has been through battles and long runs the last three years in a row. You don't blow that up in a reaction to one playoff series, and I don't think physical toughness was the issue. Mental much more than physical, which is the exception and not the rule when looking at this group's recent history.
 

ChiHawk21

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Jan 15, 2011
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aka dont trade panarin for saad because of 4 games (i know there was more to it because of contracts).
 

Blackhawkswincup

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But this is largely the same bunch that has had long runs of late and were in the Final not long ago.

You don't blow that up in a reaction to one playoff series, and I don't think physical toughness was the issue. Mental much more than physical.

Actually its the same bunch that has had several notable playoff no shows when it mattered most

Took 2-1 series lead vs Hawks and then had core no show vs Hawks in games 4-6
Had 3-2 series lead in ECF vs Pens and the core no showed for games 6 and 7
Had 3-2 series lead in ECF vs Caps and the core no showed for games 6 and 7
And now this years playoff debacle

Your right its not physical its mental and this core/coaching staff in TB has shown time and again that when it matters most the players are MIA and the coach is clueless

That core needs a major shakeup since they are not going to fire Cooper
 
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