OT: OT: 2018 Football Thread III: Well, the Giants suck, anyway!

[sbjnyc]

Stats nerds will like this, the people that post here that used to take our lunch money and stick us into lockers won't.

Here's my breakdown on the math behind going for two and why it was absolutely the right call mathematically. This is from another board. @Machinehead.

There has been a lot written about 2 point conversions being better value than extra points. So I won't go to the general theory behind that. However, I will take a look at today's specific situation and show that Shurmur was 100% right, at least mathematically. I have a friend that argues based on qualitative factors such as momentum why he was wrong. That's an argument that if it's possible to prove is beyond my pay grade. So I will just quantify the probabilities of going for 2 and not going about it the old-fashioned way.

First of all, here are my assumptions:

1) Two TDs will be scored in regulation and the Falcons will be stopped from scoring any more points. Without that, we lose regardless of what Shurmur's call was. I guess there are wacky scenarios like a TD and 3 FGs also winning, but let's not complicate things.

2) I count ties as losses as I'm sure any head coach worth his salt does. So not winning means tying or losing.

To do the math there are really only three probabilities that need to be known. Probability of a successful PAT, probability of a successful 2 pt conversion, and the probability of winning in OT.

Probability of a successful PAT and 2 pt conversion is covered in this (unfortunately slightly outdated) FiveThirtyEight article from November 15, 2016:



Prob of PAT: 0.944
Prob of 2pt Conversion: 0.479

I'll stop you right there. The problem with this exercise is that it assumes all probabilities are constant over each team. A team like the Giants who can't score from the red zone have a much lower 2 pt conversion percentage than the average. I agree that if you're going to go for 2 you're better off on the first TD, but my non-stat assessment of the Giants is that they do not have anywhere near a 50% chance of succeeding on a 2 point conversion. Frankly I think they'd have been better off kicking a quick FG rather than a TD at the end of the game. Clock more important.

I middled 2 6 pt teasers with the Giants, Atlanta pick'em and Giants +10.5. One thing about the Giants is that they lose games but usually don't get blown out. You can always count on garbage time Eli to make things look close. Parlays are sucker bets.

 

[silverfish]

Nate Solder is busted.

2019 draft: OT, OT, Tyree, Khalil Hodge

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I'll stop you right there. The problem with this exercise is that it assumes all probabilities are constant over each team. A team like the Giants who can't score from the red zone have a much lower 2 pt conversion percentage than the average. I agree that if you're going to go for 2 you're better off on the first TD, but my non-stat assessment of the Giants is that they do not have anywhere near a 50% chance of succeeding on a 2 point conversion. Frankly I think they'd have been better off kicking a quick FG rather than a TD at the end of the game. Clock more important.

I middled 2 6 pt teasers with the Giants, Atlanta pick'em and Giants +10.5. One thing about the Giants is that they lose games but usually don't get blown out. You can always count on garbage time Eli to make things look close. Parlays are sucker bets.

I'm pretty sure the Giants were at 50% for 2 point conversions coming into the game and still are at 50%. The point makes sense but you can't coach scared.

 

[Fvital92]

Nate Solder is busted.

2019 draft: OT, OT, Tyree, Khalil Hodge

Tyree Jackson seemed like a poor Cam Newton in the one game I watched. I hate Cam Newton as a QB.

 

[silverfish]

Tyree Jackson seemed like a poor Cam Newton in the one game I watched. I hate Cam Newton as a QB.

Cam Newton wears Tyree Jackson pajamas.

 

[Ghost of jas]

No link, but WFAN just reported the Giants just traded Eli Apple to the Saints. No word on the return.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

No link, but WFAN just reported the Giants just traded Eli Apple to the Saints. No word on the return.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Thanks

 

[sbjnyc]

I'm pretty sure the Giants were at 50% for 2 point conversions coming into the game and still are at 50%. The point makes sense but you can't coach scared.

Over what time frame? Giants were 20% in 2017. Anyway, "analytics" for these sorts of calls are very team and situation specific and almost always suffer from a small sample bias. For example, if you were the Pats what would you do? They've been very successful on 2 point conversions recently. Since 2007 they played 8 OT games with a 3-5 record, losing all 4 to the Jets. In the same time frame, the Jets are 11-5 in OT, including 4 straight from 2015. Needless to say, OT records at first glance don't seem to be correlated with team performance. I can't say that this is a general result but I can say that applying average statistics to specific teams doesn't work well in general.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

If the GM has a brain left, he will trade snacks to the Chiefs for a second.

Next time you're on the phone with Clark Hunt or KC GM Brett Veach and they tell you again about how they'd give up a 2nd for Snacks you make sure to pass the phone over to Getty

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

I really need to watch more Giants games, I thoyught he was doing well this year.

 

[Fvital92]

God, Reese must be the worst GM ever to win multiple superbowls. His draft picks were disaster after disaster.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I really need to watch more Giants games, I thoyught he was doing well this year.

He is. Expect more moves like this. Gettelman, I guess, has realized that this team was not a contender coming off a 3-13 season. Who knew?

 

[Hunter Gathers]

He is. Expect more moves like this. Gettelman, I guess, has realized that this team was not a contender coming off a 3-13 season. Who knew?

He was until the last few games of his.

4th and 7th is solid value for Apple. I want more draft capital. Need to move Snacks, Jenkins if possible.

 

[BroadwayBlues]

Another wonderful Jerry Reese pick.

Apple at 10 and Flowers at 9. Just Brilliant!

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Giants fans still think Saquan was the right pick?

 

[Bob Richards]

At least they let Apple build himself some value again. I thought he wasn’t actually too bad this year.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Another wonderful Jerry Reese pick.

Apple at 10 and Flowers at 9. Just Brilliant!

This is why the Giants are where they are now. This and not standing up to the Manning apologists.

 

[NCRanger]

Giants fans still think Saquan was the right pick?

Never liked that pick. Franchise damaging pick. NEVER take a RB that high, NEVER, especially with so many potential decade long QB options there.

Something about Giants fans and NY fans for that matter -- they never think players age.

 

[BroadwayBlues]

Giants fans still think Saquan was the right pick?

I did not. Wanted a QB.

BUT, if they land a franchise QB in next year's draft, or even in 2020, it becomes the right pick. They would be quite lucky though. Cause this was not by design...

 

[Bob Richards]

#AllIn Giants ready to fire sale just before the halfway point of the season.

 

[Matt4776]

Falcons -4 were my last pick in a massive 8 team parlay that would've netted me approximately 4k.

To say I hate the Giants right now would be a massive understatement.

 

[LeetchisGod]

He is. Expect more moves like this. Gettelman, I guess, has realized that this team was not a contender coming off a 3-13 season. Who knew?

Really illustrates how clueless ownership is

 

[I Eat Crow]

Giants fans still think Saquan was the right pick?

It never was. It was a self-indulgent, arrogant pick made for the short term.

The front office put all of their eggs in the Manning basket, and now the chickens are coming to roost.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

It never was. It was a self-indulgent, arrogant pick made for the short term.

The front office put all of their eggs in the Manning basket, and now the chickens are coming to roost.

That was my read on it. The FO was convinced they could win now with the defense they bought and with a new tackle and a stable running back. Eli has been cooked for like 5 years now