A separate post to talk comparables. Here is every guy listed as a center with a cap hit of $2 mil to $3 mil:
Jay Beagle: $3 mil for another 3 years (this is year 2 of 4). Includes a 15 team no trade list (changes to 5 teams in the last 2 years)
Andreas Athanasiou: $3 mil for this season (this is year 2 of 2). He is still an RFA when it expires
Valtteri Filppula: $3 mil for the next 2 years (this is year 2 of 3). Full NTC this year, 8 team no trade list starting February 1 of 2021
Chris Tierny: $2.937 mil for this season (this is year 2 of 2)
Adam Lowry: $2.916 mil for the next 2 years (this is year 2 of 3)
Danton Heinen: $2.8 mil for the next 2 yeas (this is year 1 of 2). He is still an RFA when it expires
Erik Haula: $2.75 mil this year (this is year 3 of 3)
Riley Nash: $2.75 mil for the next 2 years (this is year 2 of 3)
Sunny: $2.75 mil for the next 4 years
Colin Wilson: $2.6 mil this year (1 year deal)
Scott Laughton: $2.3 mil for the next 2 years (this is year 1 of a 2 year deal)
Radek Faksa: $2.2 mil this year (this is year 3 of a 3 year deal). He will be an RFA when it expires
Trevor Lewis: $2 mil this year (year 4 of a 4 year deal)
Jordan Martinook: $2 mil for the next 2 years (first year of a 2 year deal)
A few takeaways:
1: AAVs starting with a 2 are somewhat rare for centers in the NHL. 11 guys league-wide, which is the lowest number of contracts for any range when you sort by million dollar increments. I was surprised by this so I drilled down a bit. There are 19 centers making $3-$3.99 mil, 13 centers making $4-$4.99 mil, 18 centers making $5-$5.99 mil, 15 centers making $6-$6.99 mil and 20 making $7+ mil. All told, that's 85 guys listed at center who make $3 mil or more. Obviously some of these guys play a good chunk of wing, but I would wager that these are offset by guys on ELCs who are playing top 6 minutes and will clearly make more than $3 mil on their 2nd contract. So anything less than $3 mil of a center is putting you at the very low end of a 3C or the very top end of 4C. Sunny is now in a 3 way tie as the 92nd highest paid center in the NHL and they will get bumped to 93rd whenever Point signs. With 31 NHL teams and 3 "top 9" center spots per team, that means that there are 93 top 9 center spots open in a completely healthy NHL. From a pure comparable outlook, $2.75 mil on a center means that you expect that center to be among the best 4th line centers in the league. Even with no improvement from Sunny, I think that's totally fair.
2: Excluding the contracts above that did not purchase UFA years, I like Sunny right now as much or more than everyone on that list except Haula. Not too shabby.
3: Jay Beagle and Trevor Lewis are the only other guys in that list on 4 year deals. Beagle parlayed a 22 point season and 7 point Cup run with Washington into that 4 year deal with Vancouver as a UFA. He'll be 36 when it expires. I'll take a 25 year old Sunny every day of the week over that contract. Lewis won 2 Cups with LA before signing his deal, hitting 20 points just once in 5 full NHL seasons before signing that deal. I think Sunny is a better player and played a bigger role on our Cup run than Lewis did on at least 1 of LA's 2 wins, but that is properly reflected by Sunny making an extra $750k per year. With that said, Lewis contributed 24 and 26 points the first 2 years of that deal and has been one of the better contracts in LA. He only had 12 points through 44 games this season and will be 33 when the contract expires.
After looking at these comparables, I like the contract even more than I did before. Even with no improvement and a touch of offensive regression, he will not be overpaid compared to the market. The only 'overpayment' potential will be that we could save some money by plugging in a younger player making less, but even a 15-20 point Sunny almost certainly will provide better PK and defensive play than a cheap replacement.
