OPPF2020 Quarter-Final: Chicago Cougar vs. Kelowna Rockets

[BenchBrawl]

Coach: Hap Day

Alex Ovechkin - Cyclone Taylor - Marian Hossa
Jamie Benn - Henri Richard (A) - Charlie Conacher
Jiri Holik - Milt Schmidt (A) - Mark Recchi
Kevin Stevens - Don Luce - David Backes

Red Kelly - Valeri Vasiliev (K)
Ching Johnson - Drew Doughty
Roman Josi - Cy Wentworth

Glenn Hall
Mikka Kiprusoff


PP1
Benn - Taylor - Conacher
Ovechkin - Kelly

PP2
K. Stevens - H. Richard - Schmidt
Doughty - Recchi

PK1
Holik - Luce
C. Johnson - Vasiliev

PK2
Schmidt/Hossa - Backes
Kelly - Wentworth


Extra PK D: Doughty
Extra PK F: H. Richard


Vs.

Coach: Tommy Ivan

Alex Delvecchio --- Phil Esposito (A) --- Hooley Smith
Paul Thompson --- Evgeni Malkin --- Bill Cook (A)
Busher Jackson --- Eric Lindros --- Frank Foyston
John Madden --- Dale Hunter --- Jason Pominville

Denis Potvin (C) --- Al MacInnis
Larry Robinson --- Alex Pietrangelo
Ryan Suter --- Erik Karlsson

Vladislav Tretiak
Grant Fuhr

PP1: Cook - Esposito - Malkin - Potvin - MacInnis
PP2: Delvecchio - Lindros - Jackson - Robinson - Karlsson
PK1: Smith - Madden - Potvin - Robinson
PK2: Delvecchio - Pominville - Suter - MacInnis​

Click to read more...

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Here's to a good series @ResilientBeast !

I don't have time to post comments today, but here is my Regular Season minutes chart. You can expect Hap Day to give his stars as well as Top 9 F/Top 4 D more minutes than this in the Playoffs, as we usually see coaches do.


Regular Season Estimated Minutes

Forwards
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
A. Ovechkin	15	5		20
C. Taylor	13	5		18
M. Hossa	14		2	16
J. Benn	12	4		16
H. Richard	15	2		17
C. Conacher	13	4		17
J. Holik	11		3	14
M. Schmidt	11	3	2	16
M. Recchi	12	2		14
K. Stevens	8	3		11
D. Luce	7		4	11
D. Backes	7		3	10
TOTAL	138	28	14	180
Defense
Player	ES	PP	PK	Total
R. Kelly	17	5	2	24
V. Vasiliev	15		4	19
C. Johnson	15		4	19
D. Doughty	18	2	1	21
R. Josi	14			14
C. Wentworth	13		3	16
TOTAL	92	7	14	113

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'll write up some comments tonight

 

[ResilientBeast]

So this is another not great matchup for my Rockets. Taylor, Richard & Schmidt down the middle is certainly stronger than my group and more well rounded.

At LW

Ovechkin, Benn, Holik
Delvecchio, Thompson, Jackson

So clearly you have the superior winger in Ovechkin, but I don't think it's a stretch to say I have the next 3 best LWers in this series. Benn and Thompson would be the only tough call. Big physical PFs seem to be a strength for your team from the left while I have one bruiser and 2 checkers

At RW
Hossa, Conacher, Recchi
Smith, Cook, Foyston

Very much the opposite situation on the right, Cook is the best winger here but you clearly have the next 2 best RWers in this series (and maybe all 3) depending on your views on Hooley.

On D

Potvin = Kelley
Robinson >> Vasiliev
MacInnis >> Johnson
Karlsson = Doughty - I get they're different players entirely but they've got to be pretty close
Suter = Wentworth - I love Cy as a player and think he's generally underrated
Pietrangelo > Josi - As an all around guy and career wise I think Pietro has the edge

So overall on defence I think things are quite close in the bottom half however my top 3 defense are far better, which is great because if we're going to slow down a potent chicago offense we're going to need our D to be performing at their peaks.

The matchups I think we will look for early in the series will be the Esposito line against the Taylor line with these assignments.

Hooley - Ovechkin
Delvecchio - Taylor
Esposito - Hossa

The line is made of 3 centers so hopefully they're capable of reading the play and covering their man appropriately.

Then just go 2nd v 2nd & 3rd v 3rd.

On defence my top pairings will split the time against the top 2 lines of Chicago fairly evenly and will give the 3rd pairing almost all the time they can handle against the bottom two lines of Chicago.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Thanks for starting things off RB.

While a player by player comparison such as the above can surely be useful, I think it's more important to look at the lines/pairs as units to get an idea of how all of those individual players will work together.

Forward lines

RB has built a nice 1st line around Phil Esposito with pieces that work well together, but as usual, to build around Espo you have to sacrifice offense on the wings to get compatible players. Alex Delvecchio has a 7yr vs.X score of 84.8 which has to be discounted somewhat due to playing with Gordie Howe. After making that adjustment is his 7yr vs.X score even better than Marian Hossa's 82.4? It should be noted that Delvecchio has very good longevity, better than Hossa, which he should get credit for. That leaves Ovechkin - Taylor vs. Esposito - Smith, for which I would give the offensive edge to Chicago but the defensive edge to Kelowna (after discounting Esposito for not having a Bobby Orr level offensive Dman on the back end). More on that here if you're interested: Esposito without Orr

Beyond the first lines is where Chicago has a significant advantage...

Kelowna's 2nd line has a serious lack of defense. Cook and Thompson are small pluses and Malkin provides no defense. It's set up well in that Malkin can be the man, like he needs to be, but they are seriously vulnerable to a counter-attack, which is exactly what Chicago's game is, with a lot of speed up front and players that are very dangerous on the rush...Ovechkin, Taylor, Conacher, H. Richard, etc. not to mention Red Kelly on the back end. Chicago's 2nd line has an elite defensive center in Henri Richard.

Kelowna's 3rd line is slightly better defensively than their 2nd line, but it's the same issue, and on a line where defense is even more important. Lindros is a small plus in a similar way as Bill Cook (or say Jeremey Roenick for a center comparable), and Foyston is a tier above that, while Jackson is a liability. On the other side, Schmidt and Jiri Holik are strong defensive players, admittedly Recchi is nothing more than a neutral, but that is fine for a 2-way line, especially with the luxury of Schimdt at center. Again, Kelowna's 3rd line is vulnerable to counter-attack's by Chicago.

So looking at the the top 9, Chicago has a major edge defensively. Here's a quick tier ranking of the players:

H. Richard
Smith
Schmidt/Holik/Hossa/Delvecchio
Foyston
Taylor/Lindros/Cook/Thompson
Benn/Recchi
Conacher/Ovechkin/Jackson/Malkin
Esposito


I believe this lack of defense up front will seriously hinder the Kelowna defensemen's ability to have an impact on the game offensively.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Defense

RB's individual comparison is mainly in line with what I think, with the following very minor adjustments...

I don't think the gap between Robinson and Vasiliev is the same as between MacInnis and Ching Johnson, I would have simply said MacInnis > C. Johnson.

I also think Pietrangelo and Josi are a little closer, but still give an edge to Pietrangelo, probably would've said Pietrangelo >= Josi


But let's take a look at the pairings themselves...

Potvin - MacInnis: There is no major problem with this pairing, but they are both more offensive minded and played with defensive partners, so they will be losing something there when the other guy decides to jump in. Whereas Red Kelly has been paired with a very defensive minded partner in a scenario to get the absolute most out of him. In all time rankings, I know a lot people go back and forth on Kelly vs. Potvin, personally I am in the Kelly camp, but they are in the same tier for sure. However, with these set ups optimizing Kelly and slightly hindering Potvin, Chicago has the best Dman in the series.

Robinson - Pietrangelo: Robinson is a #1 Dman in a draft this size and a huge luxury for Kelowna. I think chemistry wise he will be fine with Pietrangelo, however, it should be noted that Pietrangelo is really more of a #5 in a draft this size, but will be getting top 4 minutes. This takes away some from the Robinson edge, although this pairing is still a clear advantage for Kelowna. C. Johnson - Doughty has no chemistry issues, Doughty has had plenty of success playing with a defensive minded partner.

Suter - Karlsson: Again, this is fine chemistry-wise, but Karlsson is relegated to 3rd pair minutes, when he's really a #4. And on top of it he doesn't fit well with Potvin or Robinson, so he can't even really be given extra minutes. Not much to say about Chicago, pretty classic pairing chemistry-wise.

Kelowna still has the clear edge on the blueline in this series (how could they not with a top 3 of Potvin-Robinson-MacInnis?), but the above shows it's not as large an edge as the individual comparison makes it out to be.

Further, with a serious lack of defensive help from their forward combined with dangerous counter-attack players on Chicago, Kelowna's Dmen are going to have to hang back more than usual, reducing their offensive contributions.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Goaltending

Chicago has a clear advantage here with Glenn Hall over Vladislav Tretiak. My personal ranking has Hall at #4 and Tretiak at #8, but I know not all agree. Either way, to me it's clear Hall is in that second tier of goaltenders with Sawchuk and Brodeur, while Tretiak is at best in the next tier with Dryden or in a tier of his own behind Dryden.

I also want to address one point that hasn't been brought up, but some may be thinking. Glenn Hall's prime was played behind a mostly run-and-gun Hawks team that frequently left him out to dry. This is not the team he sees in front of him. This Chicago team plays very solid defense and capitalizes on the counter-attack. So, some may think that may not fit Hall, but I don't think that is true. Why? Because Hall won a Conn Smythe and was named a 1st team AS playing behind a defensive minded Blues team. In his Smythe year the Blues were 2nd in GA in the Expansion division only 12 goals behind Philly, and the following year when Hall was named 1st Team AS the Blues not only led the expansion division in GA, but the entire NHL, with only 157 goals against (the next closest Expansion team had 225 GA!). For this reason, I think Hall will be just fine (who knows, maybe they'll even be a game or two where he doesn't throw up before puck drop).

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Reasons Chicago will win this Series
- Much stronger at the Center position (this even goes to the 4th line)

- Better Goaltending

- Strong team defense and speedy counter-attack players will expose the weak defensive help from Kelowna's top 9

- This wasn't discussed, but Kelowna is a fairly physical team, and against most teams that would be an advantage for them, but Chicago counters this well with guys like Vasiliev, C. Johnson, Wentworth on the back end and Ovechkin, Conacher, Benn, Schmidt, K. Stevens, and Backes up front (Hossa to a lesser extent).

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

In fairness to @ResilientBeast

It should be pointed out that the mast-head for Kelowna, above, was pulled from the Roster Thread.

The Assassination Thread shows The Rockets placing Karlsson on the second pairing. Since the Assassination Thread post is the one over which Beast has editorial control, I think we gotta go with that one.

I'm pretty sure Karlsson isn't slumming on the 3rd Pairing.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

In fairness to @ResilientBeast

It should be pointed out that the mast-head for Kelowna, above, was pulled from the Roster Thread.

The Assassination Thread shows The Rockets placing Karlsson on the second pairing. Since the Assassination Thread post is the one over which Beast has editorial control, I think we gotta go with that one.

I'm pretty sure Karlsson isn't slumming on the 3rd Pairing.

If this is true then I think Kelowna would be losing out on a lot of offense from Robinson. Similar to the first pairing issue but to an even larger extent as Karlsson is more offensive minded/less defensive minded than either of the guys on the first pair.

Personally I would go with the set up shown in the OP of this thread, but both are flawed.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

i wonder if the best d set up is really

potvin karlsson
robinson macinnis
suter pietrangelo

potvin is basically so good that he doesn't need an optimal partner and excelled with everyone he played with. stylistically, karlsson is a smaller puck carrying and stretch passing dman, not unlike tomas jonsson only way way way better. i don't think he's taking anything away from potvin's offensive contributions here, or at least no more than macinnis would.

robinson carries the puck, macinnis is more of a puck mover. both can be elite defensively, even if the late career macinnis usually had a stay at home guy next to him. and we didn't see much of pronger/macinnis, but iirc when they were together they were utterly dominant. pronger, of course, is the evolutionary robinson.

then you have the lesser two guys taking third pair minutes, which they are right in range for, if not slightly overqualified. plus they're a nice stylistic fit with each other.

 

[ResilientBeast]

In fairness to @ResilientBeast

It should be pointed out that the mast-head for Kelowna, above, was pulled from the Roster Thread.

The Assassination Thread shows The Rockets placing Karlsson on the second pairing. Since the Assassination Thread post is the one over which Beast has editorial control, I think we gotta go with that one.

I'm pretty sure Karlsson isn't slumming on the 3rd Pairing.

No, I made the change after it was commented that Robinson and Karlsson wouldn't be the best usage of Robinson.

The roster thread is the accurate one

 

[Theokritos]

Voting results: Kelnowna wins the series in 7 games.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Congrats @ResilientBeast Good luck going forward!

 

[BenchBrawl]

First upset of the tournament. Both teams were deserving of advancing. HT18 as usual build a contender that could have gone all the way.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Congrats @ResilientBeast Good luck going forward!

Thanks for the well wishes...I have to admit I'm a little bit shocked by the results personally I knew it would be close but happy to advance