Speculation: Opening Night Roster

Shaman464

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May 1, 2009
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Yeah I agree. I think Sheahan actually has the higher ceiling. I think confidence is the biggest hurdle for him, it's like he doesn't realize how good he can be.

This is what Sheahan should be playing like more often:



[NHL]2014020596-80-h[/NHL]

I don't buy that this guy has a ceiling of 45 points.

If he had a higher ceiling he wouldn't have fallen to end of the first round. Also Staal never played with Crosby or Malkin, he centered his own line.
 

RayMoonDoh

Outta Waiver Stuff
Nov 12, 2011
1,195
199
Shore Shack
That's interesting, considering his best season ever was 50 points on the dot.

Sheahan is almost already a 40 point guy.

The difference is not huge, or not nearly as huge as you are trying to make it. You're overrating Staal.

Staal career NHL PPG= .532 ppg
Sheahan career NHL PPg= .487 ppg

So Staal, for his career, produces on average 43 points per 82 games played... And Sheahan, for his career, produces on average 40 points per games played. Small sample size for Riley, but acting like they are far apart offensively is incorrect.

Is there an "aw snap" emoji, cuz this post just lit up the Burn Unit
 

Eggberto

Registered User
Oct 26, 2013
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0
If he had a higher ceiling he wouldn't have fallen to end of the first round. Also Staal never played with Crosby or Malkin, he centered his own line.

If people could accurately depict people's "ceilings" at such a young age amiliar players like Datsyuk, Lidstrom, and Zetterberg wouldn't have fallen as far as they did.

More recent examples include Tatar, Nyquist, and we could argue DeKeyser as he was never drafted.

Now don't jump to conclusions. I am not saying Nyquist, Tatar, or DeKeyser are of the same talent as Lids Pav and Z or even have the same ceilings, but they are players that have been drafted recently that have outperformed several first round picks despite being picked in the second, fourth, and not at all rounds.
 
Aug 6, 2012
10,752
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If I had to guess Sheahan has been given much more favorable matchups and zone starts than Staal. That's not to say he can't develop into a similar caliber player.
 

Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
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If he had a higher ceiling he wouldn't have fallen to end of the first round.
Doesn't make much sense. Anyway I didn't think much of his ceiling back then, but he has changed my mind the last 2 years. Definitely has untapped offensive potential.
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,211
4,420
Boston, MA
If people could accurately depict people's "ceilings" at such a young age amiliar players like Datsyuk, Lidstrom, and Zetterberg wouldn't have fallen as far as they did.

More recent examples include Tatar, Nyquist, and we could argue DeKeyser as he was never drafted.

Now don't jump to conclusions. I am not saying Nyquist, Tatar, or DeKeyser are of the same talent as Lids Pav and Z or even have the same ceilings, but they are players that have been drafted recently that have outperformed several first round picks despite being picked in the second, fourth, and not at all rounds.

You've not given any counter evidence. You've given mostly European wingers, and a late blooming #4-5 Dman that went to until recently under the radar school. They flew under the radar not because of their youth but because of their locations. There is a reason why Swedish and Finnish players are getting drafted more often and in earlier rounds, it's because teams are actually putting scouts in those countries. North American centre prospects rarely are misidentified in the draft. Riley won't be as good as Jordan Staal, and I would trade Sheahan one for one for Staal and laugh my ass off at the Canes for making that trade.
 

Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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You've not given any counter evidence. You've given mostly European wingers, and a late blooming #4-5 Dman that went to until recently under the radar school. They flew under the radar not because of their youth but because of their locations. There is a reason why Swedish and Finnish players are getting drafted more often and in earlier rounds, it's because teams are actually putting scouts in those countries. North American centre prospects rarely are misidentified in the draft. Riley won't be as good as Jordan Staal, and I would trade Sheahan one for one for Staal and laugh my ass off at the Canes for making that trade.
Comments from around when he was drafted:

"He played at Notre Dame and embraced coach Jeff Jackson's defense-first system with gusto. He had just six goals as a freshman, but drew plaudits for his defensive game.
"One game I saw him cross the blueline, and just stop," a scout said.

Other scouts said it was difficult to get an accurate read on Sheahan because of the style the Fighting Irish play. One scout referred to Sheahan as the most complete player in this year's draft. Having turned 18 in December, he was one of the youngest players in college hockey.

"He has probably dropped because of his lack of production, but he's learning to play away from the puck," another scout said."


Bob McKenzie: University of Notre Dame forward Riley Sheahan (pronounced Shay-en) had to explain himself at the NHL Scouting Combine for a minor off-ice episode involving underage drinking, but NHL scouts are more interested to find out what his offensive upside is, though that’s not easy to tell when you play in the defence-first system of the Fighting Irish. Sheahan was perceived as a big, skilled point producer in junior before college and scouts are trying to rationalize meager offensive numbers as a CCHA freshman.

June 22, NBC Sports: An exciting prospect before last season, his production dropped off with Notre Dame and he's fallen a bit. Yet he's a gritty two-way player that excells in all areas of the ice, and is more than just a flashy scorer like you see at the top of the draft.

Pretty obvious at this point that he HAS more offensive upside than his college days showed. No one who is picked outside of the top 5-10 is a 'perfect' prospect, but your logic that being picked #21 means he has no more than an offensive upside of 45 points is flawed. Mantha was #20 for example.
 
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DanZ

Registered User
Mar 6, 2008
14,495
31
If I had to guess Sheahan has been given much more favorable matchups and zone starts than Staal. That's not to say he can't develop into a similar caliber player.

He played a large portion of his career on the third line behind Crosby and Malkin. Somehow I doubt that.
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,211
4,420
Boston, MA
Comments from around when he was drafted:

"He played at Notre Dame and embraced coach Jeff Jackson's defense-first system with gusto. He had just six goals as a freshman, but drew plaudits for his defensive game.
"One game I saw him cross the blueline, and just stop," a scout said.

Other scouts said it was difficult to get an accurate read on Sheahan because of the style the Fighting Irish play. One scout referred to Sheahan as the most complete player in this year's draft. Having turned 18 in December, he was one of the youngest players in college hockey.

"He has probably dropped because of his lack of production, but he's learning to play away from the puck," another scout said."


Bob McKenzie: University of Notre Dame forward Riley Sheahan (pronounced Shay-en) had to explain himself at the NHL Scouting Combine for a minor off-ice episode involving underage drinking, but NHL scouts are more interested to find out what his offensive upside is, though that’s not easy to tell when you play in the defence-first system of the Fighting Irish. Sheahan was perceived as a big, skilled point producer in junior before college and scouts are trying to rationalize meager offensive numbers as a CCHA freshman.

June 22, NBC Sports: An exciting prospect before last season, his production dropped off with Notre Dame and he's fallen a bit. Yet he's a gritty two-way player that excells in all areas of the ice, and is more than just a flashy scorer like you see at the top of the draft.

Pretty obvious at this point that he HAS more offensive upside than his college days showed. No one who is picked outside of the top 5-10 is a 'perfect' prospect, but your logic that being picked #21 means he has no more than an offensive upside of 45 points is flawed. Mantha was #20 for example.

Mantha is also a winger. Two way North American centres who can put up 50+ points don't fall to the mid 20s.

He played a large portion of his career on the third line behind Crosby and Malkin. Somehow I doubt that.

Actually Staal played some pretty tough minutes, he, if I remember correctly, was as likely to play against the other team's top line as Crosby/Malkin were, and he played on the PK, whereas Crosby didn't.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
Two way North American centres who can put up 50+ points don't fall to the mid 20s.

Ryan Kesler, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan O' Reilly, Joe Pavelski, Derek Stepan, Paul Stastny, Craig Smith, Brandon Dubinsky, David Backes, Mike Fisher, Adam Henrique, Mike Richards, Brooks Laich
 
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Shaman464

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May 1, 2009
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Ryan O' Reilly, Derek Stepan, and Paul Stastny,

Okay, barring the 2003 draft which was one of the deepest for centers. You can then take out Fisher, Henrique, Smith, Dubinsky and Laich, as none of them have been consistently over the 50 point plateau. It leaves 3 players since 2003 to fit my criteria and Im not sure I would call any of these guys anything beyond passable 2 way centres.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
Okay, barring the 2003 draft which was one of the deepest for centers. You can then take out Fisher, Henrique, Smith, Dubinsky and Laich, as none of them have been consistently over the 50 point plateau. It leaves 3 players since 2003 to fit my criteria and Im not sure I would call any of these guys anything beyond passable 2 way centres.

Move the goal posts much?
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,211
4,420
Boston, MA
Move the goal posts much?

How am I moving goal posts? I took out players that were under the criteria mentioned, consistent 50 point scorers who were also considered two way centers, or were part of a draft that One of the best drafts of all time. Yeah there are exceptions, in my earlier post I said 'rarely' which doesn't mean 'never'. I am positive that the 2015 draft will yield quite a few exceptions as well.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,201
14,683
How am I moving goal posts? I took out players that were under the criteria mentioned, consistent 50 point scorers who were also considered two way centers, or were part of a draft that One of the best drafts of all time. Yeah there are exceptions, in my earlier post I said 'rarely' which doesn't mean 'never'. I am positive that the 2015 draft will yield quite a few exceptions as well.

Staal is a 50-60 point player in your eyes, despite only hitting 50 points on the dot once.

But the guys I listed who have all only hit 50 pts once, don't count, because they haven't done it consistently?

And you want to throw out an entire draft because it was deep?

Okay man.
 

r0bert8841

Registered User
Jan 2, 2009
7,635
770
Michigan
If he had a higher ceiling he wouldn't have fallen to end of the first round. Also Staal never played with Crosby or Malkin, he centered his own line.

Really?! Of all the arguments you could have made you choose draft position?! :help:

Anyways, I'm skeptical about Riley. His numbers were way too terrible in college and AHL, and I think we must be missing something. A man of the skills we have witnessed should have done much better in the lower leagues. Maybe he has been doing a good job of removing himself from off ice incidents/problems. It's also possible he just needed to play with more talented players. I don't know, we are definitely missing something.
 

Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
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Mantha is also a winger. Two way North American centres who can put up 50+ points don't fall to the mid 20s.
Maybe scouts weren't sure Sheahan had 50 point potential? Redraft and I think he goes higher.

Okay, barring the 2003 draft which was one of the deepest for centers. You can then take out Fisher, Henrique, Smith, Dubinsky and Laich, as none of them have been consistently over the 50 point plateau. It leaves 3 players since 2003 to fit my criteria and Im not sure I would call any of these guys anything beyond passable 2 way centres.
Ryan O'Reilly? Brock Nelson was also picked 30th in the 2010 draft and I'd say he has 50 point potential.

I get your point, that if scouts were sure that Sheahan had a lot of offensive potenial, he would have been a top 10 pick. But they weren't sure. He was playing in a very defensive system and it was hard to tell if he could do more offensively than he was doing. Falling to 21 didn't mean scouts thought he had zero offensive upside, it just meant he wasn't a slam-dunk prospect. At this point, we already know that he has more offense in him than he showed back then so using his draft position to determine potential, as if scouts are always 100% right about that stuff, is silly.
 

r0bert8841

Registered User
Jan 2, 2009
7,635
770
Michigan
Players are drafted at 18 years old in the NHL and most don't make it to the NHL till 3-5 years later. Unlike NBA and NFL, draft position is a much weaker indicator of success since many of these players have years to keep developing/improving. There are many many many cases of players overachieving from lower draft positions in the NHL.

While an argument can be made that a high draft pick has a high ceiling, it's silly to suggest the opposite, that lower draft pick means lower ceiling. Many players in the NHL draft has high potential, the ones that are drafted early are those most probable to reach that potential. In many cases, being drafted later means it's far more uncertain whether you will reach that high ceiling.
 
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InjuredChoker

Registered User
Dec 25, 2011
31,402
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LTIR or golf course
there is a two way NA center who fell into the mid 20s (actually late) in the same draft as sheahan who will be scoring 50+ points.

edit. pavels dog already mentioned him.
 

Shaman464

No u
May 1, 2009
10,211
4,420
Boston, MA
Let me clarify my position:

I am not saying that Sheahan will never score over 50 points. What I am saying is that he is not going to be better than Jordan Staal, who is a top two way center who can also score 50+ points. My opinion based on what I have seen from Sheahan is he will be a poor man's Staal in that he will not put up the same offensive numbers, but will put up slightly lower numbers while providing very good defensive zone play.
 

DanZ

Registered User
Mar 6, 2008
14,495
31
Let me clarify my position:

I am not saying that Sheahan will never score over 50 points. What I am saying is that he is not going to be better than Jordan Staal, who is a top two way center who can also score 50+ points. My opinion based on what I have seen from Sheahan is he will be a poor man's Staal in that he will not put up the same offensive numbers, but will put up slightly lower numbers while providing very good defensive zone play.

That's a perfectly fine opinion, but I don't think the logic of referencing his draft position makes a whole lot of sense.
 

Eggberto

Registered User
Oct 26, 2013
1,344
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You've not given any counter evidence. You've given mostly European wingers, and a late blooming #4-5 Dman that went to until recently under the radar school. They flew under the radar not because of their youth but because of their locations. There is a reason why Swedish and Finnish players are getting drafted more often and in earlier rounds, it's because teams are actually putting scouts in those countries. North American centre prospects rarely are misidentified in the draft. Riley won't be as good as Jordan Staal, and I would trade Sheahan one for one for Staal and laugh my ass off at the Canes for making that trade.

Someone else did the legwork for me to refute this so I'll just re-emphasize that list. It should be noted I chose recent wings draft picks as examples as you're more familiar. So. Yeah.

Okay, barring the 2003 draft which was one of the deepest for centers. You can then take out Fisher, Henrique, Smith, Dubinsky and Laich, as none of them have been consistently over the 50 point plateau. It leaves 3 players since 2003 to fit my criteria and Im not sure I would call any of these guys anything beyond passable 2 way centres.

Consistently? Jordan Staal has only put up one single 50 point season in his entire career. His last seasin in Puttsburgh. Sure he plays for a terrible team in Carolina but he wasn't putting up 50 point seasons consistently in Pittsburgh either. As Frk It said he hasn't ever put up 60 piints so claiming he has the potential to be a 50-60 point players sounds really similar to everyone else's argument that Sheahan can be a consistent 40-50 point guy. Oh, but wait. Sheahan was drafted 21st overall so he's never going to amount to as much as Jordan Staal.

So you clarified your position.

That's a perfectly fine opinion, but I don't think the logic of referencing his draft position makes a whole lot of sense.

Really that's the main thing I'm arguing here. Right now I would happily trade Staal for Sheahan. However I think it's silly to say that Sheahan doesn't have the potential to be as good as Staal. You admit he provides great defensive play so he can be a top 2 way center and if he puts up 40-50 points consistently I don't see how those two players would be worlds apart. Obviously Sheahan could regress and only put up 20 points next season that remains to be seen, but to say he doesn't have the potential to do more (because of where he was drafted) is simply asinine.

Typed this on a phone without spell check so forgive me for any glaring errors. I am sure you guys can figure it out.
 

opivy

Sauce King
Sep 14, 2011
867
111
Columbus, OH
I'd rather keep the younger cheaper player who fills the role well and dedicate that money to other positional pieces that we need.

Scoring on the wings and back end is where we hurt.

What if Rileys wingers were improved? Would that make him a 50pt guy? He was also playing in Babcock lower scoring system. We can't compare apples to apples with so many intangibles.

He's younger, he's cheaper and he's not a weak point in our lineup.
 

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