Ok, I gotta ask this question...

[Fyreman]

I keep hearing on the broadcasts about "carry-over" to next year. Looking at the records:

First 41 games: 9-27-5 23 points
Next 39 games: 20-13-6 46 points
Last 25 games: 15-8-1 31 points

I've REALLY enjoyed watching the 'Yotes play since January 1, my biggest question is do you think this can carry-over to next year? The momentum is there, but roster changes and other factors tend to diminish the chances of a much better record.

So, what do the guru's on this board think??

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[SniperHF]

I tend not to think of it as momentum or carry over, I don't think that exists between seasons really to much extent.

What it is, is progression. That's a large enough sample where I'm confident saying that.

But that doesn't mean it can't get blown up and quickly.

1. Raanta could not sign, get hurt again, or just play worse.
2. Chychrun's injury could be serious and we could be without him to start the year again.
3. Keller could have a sophomore slump.
4. Who knows what the heck is up with Hjalmarsson.
5. Despite his point totals being close to his normal levels (scoring is up league wide, remember) Stepan is in fact declining at least a bit. That could continue.


Losing the goalie is enough to derail a season as we've seen this year.

I'm about 65% confident on the Raanta situation working out well all around.

Not terribly worried about Keller or Chychrun.
I have suspicions that Hammer gets moved and isn't even a factor.

Stepan I'm about 50/50 on.


But even if all that bad stuff, or most of it, happens that can also be canceled out by progression from guys like Fischer, Perlini, Strome, Dvorak, and Domi.

I'm not confident at all in saying we're a bubble team points percentage wise. I think Raanta is *too* hot to say that and he won't be that hot next year most likely. But he still should be good. He's one of the most consistent goalies in terms of numbers in the league year to year.

I do think though that the days of being the worst team in the league for the first 5 months of the season are over.

 

[rt]

We've played 80 games

1st 20 = (Oct5-Nov16) = 2-15-3 = 0.175 P% = 29pts/82gp pace
2nd 20 = (Nov16-Dec31) = 7-11-2 = 0.400 P% = 66pts/82gp pace
3rd 20 = (Dec31-Feb24) = 8-7-5 = 0.525 P% = 86pts/82gp pace
4th 20 = (Feb24-Apr04) = 12-7-1 = 0.625 P% = 103pts/82gp pace

I don't think we're truly that 29pt pace team and I don't think we're truly this 103pt pace team. The question is whether the truth is between 66pts and 86pts or if the truth is between 86pts and 103pts.

 

[Mosby]

I don't anticipate significant roster turnover. We'll only see 2 or 3 changes I think, so that increases the likelihood of the current run extending into next season.

 

[Heldig]

** disclaimer not a guru

Well, the hope is the team picks up where it left off this season. Use this season as the big learning curve.

The team is still extremely young and there is a good chance a rookie from the draft steps right onto the big club. Hopefully add a top 6 guy via trade or free agency but other than that I dont expect a lot of roster turnover.

Maybe a prospect (Crouse) bumps a bottom 6 guy. A replacement is needed if Richardson walks.

Of course, all that is out the window if Raanta is not signed.

 

[BUX7PHX]

That's what happens with a young team learning its way.

Last year, the team was 8-10-2 through the first 20 games, then 4-12-4 over the next 20. 12-22-6 through 40 games for 30 points. Then the last 42 games of the year, the team was 18-20-4, the last 32 games at 14-14-4. As players get familiar with the system, the team improves. Keep in mind, that also occurred after making several trades and gutting some of our better players from the roster, which didn't happen this year. Last year, we had four true rookies play at least 55 games (if we wanted to lump DeAngelo and Dauphin together for games played, that would be 5 rookies receiving at least 55 games). This year, we have one true rookie with over 55 games played.

Because of the additional veteran stability added, I'd say that it should be expected to improve YOY over the second half of the season. I think the team is sticking with the system and starting to get rewarded.

Just as much of it could be getting rid of players that maybe didn't fit. Yes, Duclair has talent, but when watching the team now and when Duclair was on, it seems like everyone is far more on the same page. There were more than a few times when it looked like Duclair would cherry-pick closer to center line or the opposition's blue line, and that simple act may actually force less effectiveness when attacking. Panik has fit in much better and developed some touch with Keller. Reider may have been one of those players that Tocchet was referring to when he mentioned how some players would fall back into a past system when things weren't working, and that is an exact reason why the team may have looked discombobulated early in the season.

We look better and I think that all of these things have their place in showing why there has been so much improvement. We are a little older on a lot of fronts and have far more stabilizing players in the lineup. We look like we are competing for each other more. I doubt the roster undergoes an extreme makeover in the offseason. The only thing that still is a little troublesome is we still look a little polarized - going from chaos at times to well-organized and highly functioning. That may be simply a part of the system, b/c Pittsburgh had several moments in their playoff runs where they looked elite, and then two trips down the ice later, completely lacking.

 

[cobra427]

At the start of the year, our goal tenders were hung out to dry because of our pond hockey play/system. The goal tending was not good but was also a scape goat. Next year depends on the following:

1. The health and play of our top 5D. If they are healthy and play well, it helps #2
2. Raanta-does he sign and play well next year? If not, does his replacement play well? Hard to say, other then #1 will go along way to make whatever goal tender look good or bad.
3. Progression/regression of our young players- Do Keller/Fischer/Perlini/DVO improve or regress like duke/Reider/Domi at certain times. I think we will see a little of both, not sure from who though.
4. OEL- do we extend him or trade him. Impact unknown if we trade him

I am upbeat about our progress this year and I hope the team stays together with small changes, stability is good. Next year, too early to tell right now.