Confirmed with Link: Oilers Sign Jason Garrison To A PTO

[Louis Cypher]

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

Where did Chicago finish last year again?

Which organization has found better players, developed their prospects better, and used their roster wisely in the past fifteen years?

 

[belair]

I will not tolerate any Auvitu slander here. He was awesome last season.

Auvitu was a left handed version of Philip Larsen. It was scary every time he was on the ice. At least he didn't hesitate to shoot the puck.

 

[bucks_oil]

Any bottom pairing dman should be getting sheltered minutes. If they were good enough to handle tough minutes, they wouldn't be playing on the bottom pairing. He did very well in that role and had more success there than players like Russell, Benning, and Davidson.

Bottom teams can’t have never-were or never-will-be guys on the bottom pairing. Teams that improve use the bottom pairing to shelter young guys learning the ropes (Bear, Bouchard, Benning) with guys on the way out that have something to teach (Russell, Sekera)...

The fact that we will have to play one of those guys on our 2nd pairing tells you what you need to know... but the answer to the issue has zero to do with Garrison or Auvitu

 

[Former Referee 68]

Many of you have seen theories I have posted on HF boards for last 7 years.
Plus Lowetide for the last 12 years. Copied, borrowed, sto.... by the analytic hockey community.

Since I got Cancer I am on long term disability from my job as 11 eng field triarchal (design, run, maintain) as-build and Data collector/verifier for AB Coal Power Plant survival/conversion anslysis & modelling.

I have been going back and recapturing my posts on the blogs I presented portions of my theories. What I thought was 20+ base theories can be broken down into 70+ academic structured theory papers.

Most hockey analytics people are linear game theorist who limit outside mechanisms that influence play so they get a binary outcome with regression. The leading binary theorists who rejected my type multi variable approach. Are getting into human interaction and a abandoning it to go to my aproach to anslysis. Cause it can be easily partnered with old school scouting and video review. Which I do.

I have used a real world multi variable Boolean goal diff system and player mechanism approach to hockey anslysis. So I generate a map of outcomes from single system orbplayer mechsnisms that can have many results that direct you anywhere on the Goal diff success map I generated.
It lets you identify the best system and player mechanism that lead to +ve goal diff.

It lets you Identify the high goal diff actions.
HD shots ( homeplate) go in 5 times more than LD (perimeter) shots.
Elite 0% corsi dmen (#1 Russell) allow the lowest % of shots requiring movement to stop an open (open space in net elevation) shot.
Fwd NZ trap his the highest reducer of Zone entryie. corsi against.
Top 5 reg ssn GA teams can win a cup with bott 30 GF
Top 5 reg ssn GF teams can only win cups with top 15 ga.
Non top 16 GA teams can advance to round of 16 ( playoffs ) and round of 8 20-40% more than non top 16 GF teams.
Elite GA is the critical driver for championship performance.

Off dmen are not dmen but rovers based on structure position and zone minutes.
CHL scouts I have talked to now believe they are rovers.
Rovers create a 3F -1R - 1D - 1G structure rather than the traditional 3 - 2-1.
A 1R-1D-1G structure yeild High HD shot rates and often leaves the dman in outnumbered play in front of our net. ( we’re is Waldo (the rover))
Rovers when compared to forwards are 4 times less successful at generating even goals than forwards. Get the puck to the 210-300 fwds ASAP.
The top 5 rovers performe at a #6 to #9 fwd level (3rd line) and the rest perform at #10 fwd (4th line) or less.
Rovers like Nurse and Klefbom have limited cup core value and create a large negative GA affect.

Garrison Is a type of player needed in the cup core. He has been a top 60 HD dman for 7 of last 8 years. He maybe the needed depth to further cover for Sekeras loss.

Oiler D:
Larsson RD Top 5 1st comp HD with the ability to cover (homeplate) in a 1R-1D-G structure. One of 3 1st comp in NHL. That is more cup core elite than every forward but Mcdavid, Crosby.
Sekera LD Top 10 HD 2nd comp or lower.
Gravel RD top 15 HD 2nd comp when not crohns affected.
Benning RD top 60 HD 2nd/3rd comp
Garrison PTO LD Top,20-60 HD tepemdeng on comp????
Russell #1 0% corsi Dman, Top 20 hd results with top 10 1sr & 2nd comp HD d.

2 potential top 60 HD dmen still available
Top 45Sbisa injured last year.
Emelin with top 30 results last year. Has Top 20 results with elite 1st comp hD dmen. Could provide 1 st comp depth protection.

f*** cancer!!

 

[joestevens29]

Well now I have no idea what to think.

A few facts from the three Jason interview on 1260 last night.

1. Garrison has talked to TM and PC
2. Garrison thinks we have a lot of offense already from the back end.
3. Thinks he will be more used to settle the play down in a defensive role
4. Has played the right side quite a bit and is confident there.
5. Feels he's bringing a veteran presence to the back end.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Well now I have no idea what to think.

A few facts from the three Jason interview on 1260 last night.

1. Garrison has talked to TM and PC
2. Garrison thinks we have a lot of offense already from the back end.
3. Thinks he will be more used to settle the play down in a defensive role
4. Has played the right side quite a bit and is confident there.
5. Feels he's bringing a veteran presence to the back end.

What do you mean? He might have a realistic view where he might "end up" in the depth chart.

 

[StevenF1919]

Auvitu was a left handed version of Philip Larsen. It was scary every time he was on the ice. At least he didn't hesitate to shoot the puck.

And yet we outscored the other team when he was playing.

 

[belair]

And yet we outscored the other team when he was playing.

I can't disagree with that because it's true. But watching him, he was a scary player to have on the ice because he looked like he had no idea what he was doing. He was a rover in every sense of the word. Odds are if you had him out there for all 82 games last season, teams eventually expose him and those numbers get flipped upside down rather easily. He was not an NHL defenseman.

If anything, he might be evidence that you're more likely to generate offense if you shoot more, regardless of the situation. Because that's what he did.

 

[joestevens29]

What do you mean? He might have a realistic view where he might "end up" in the depth chart.

Never really see him as that calm defensive guy on the back end

 

[StevenF1919]

I can't disagree with that because it's true. But watching him, he was a scary player to have on the ice because he looked like he had no idea what he was doing. He was a rover in every sense of the word. Odds are if you had him out there for all 82 games last season, teams eventually expose him and those numbers get flipped upside down rather easily. He was not an NHL defenseman.

If anything, he might be evidence that you're more likely to generate offense if you shoot more, regardless of the situation. Because that's what he did.

He was fun. Every time he was on the ice something crazy happened.

Say what you want about him but he had a crazy GF/GA both here and in Jersey. I don't think it's fair to say he's not an NHL player since the numbers clearly show that he had a positive effect on both of the teams he played on.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Never really see him as that calm defensive guy on the back end

That's fair, I will look at it like a look at veteran forwards, sometimes they change their game to stick around, maybe Garrison is at that point.

 

[Little Fury]

I can't disagree with that because it's true. But watching him, he was a scary player to have on the ice because he looked like he had no idea what he was doing. He was a rover in every sense of the word. Odds are if you had him out there for all 82 games last season, teams eventually expose him and those numbers get flipped upside down rather easily. He was not an NHL defenseman.

If anything, he might be evidence that you're more likely to generate offense if you shoot more, regardless of the situation. Because that's what he did.

I don't think anyone is saying you throw him out every night, but you could do a lot worse for a 7D. Like, for example, Jason Garrison.

 

[Little Fury]

Well now I have no idea what to think.

A few facts from the three Jason interview on 1260 last night.

1. Garrison has talked to TM and PC
2. Garrison thinks we have a lot of offense already from the back end.
3. Thinks he will be more used to settle the play down in a defensive role
4. Has played the right side quite a bit and is confident there.
5. Feels he's bringing a veteran presence to the back end.

Please, one Kris Russell is plenty, my heart can't handle more of that kind of "veteran presence."

 

[CornKicker]

if we are bringing in vet Dmen to make bear and bouchard earn their spot then that is perfect. if they arent ready id rather have a garrison type vet than a gravel

 

[Little Fury]

if we are bringing in vet Dmen to make bear and bouchard earn their spot then that is perfect. if they arent ready id rather have a garrison type vet than a gravel

You'd rather a guy you know is useless over a guy who might be?

 

[belair]

I honestly believe Garrison will be one of the first cuts. I think we're overlooking the two guys we've already signed to be quite honest. Looking at the Habs thread, they were all calling for Jakub Jerebek to be re-signed. He's a quick puck mover and compliments a stay-at-home defender. A Jerebek-Russell bottom pair might not be the worst thing.

 

[smokersarejokers]

I love the outrage over PTOs haha.

It's just a veteran guy with a ton of PP experience to teach Klefbom, Benning, Bouchard, Bear, etc. a few things. Chances are very high that he'll get cut early, but it's all worth it if he can teach one of the young guys a thing or two.

 

[backhandsauce]

Hopefully he has a strong game tonight and they sign him. I would like to see him get a chance on the PP. He has a cannon.

 

[JarvisFunk]

I'll be honest, I've been impressed, he's not going to light the world on fire but he's proved to be more than capable. The original outrage on here is pretty funny. I hope he's our 7th D.

 

[backhandsauce]

 

[AM]

Many of you have seen theories I have posted on HF boards for last 7 years.
Plus Lowetide for the last 12 years. Copied, borrowed, sto.... by the analytic hockey community.

Since I got Cancer I am on long term disability from my job as 11 eng field triarchal (design, run, maintain) as-build and Data collector/verifier for AB Coal Power Plant survival/conversion anslysis & modelling.

I have been going back and recapturing my posts on the blogs I presented portions of my theories. What I thought was 20+ base theories can be broken down into 70+ academic structured theory papers.

Most hockey analytics people are linear game theorist who limit outside mechanisms that influence play so they get a binary outcome with regression. The leading binary theorists who rejected my type multi variable approach. Are getting into human interaction and a abandoning it to go to my aproach to anslysis. Cause it can be easily partnered with old school scouting and video review. Which I do.

I have used a real world multi variable Boolean goal diff system and player mechanism approach to hockey anslysis. So I generate a map of outcomes from single system orbplayer mechsnisms that can have many results that direct you anywhere on the Goal diff success map I generated.
It lets you identify the best system and player mechanism that lead to +ve goal diff.

It lets you Identify the high goal diff actions.
HD shots ( homeplate) go in 5 times more than LD (perimeter) shots.
Elite 0% corsi dmen (#1 Russell) allow the lowest % of shots requiring movement to stop an open (open space in net elevation) shot.
Fwd NZ trap his the highest reducer of Zone entryie. corsi against.
Top 5 reg ssn GA teams can win a cup with bott 30 GF
Top 5 reg ssn GF teams can only win cups with top 15 ga.
Non top 16 GA teams can advance to round of 16 ( playoffs ) and round of 8 20-40% more than non top 16 GF teams.
Elite GA is the critical driver for championship performance.

Off dmen are not dmen but rovers based on structure position and zone minutes.
CHL scouts I have talked to now believe they are rovers.
Rovers create a 3F -1R - 1D - 1G structure rather than the traditional 3 - 2-1.
A 1R-1D-1G structure yeild High HD shot rates and often leaves the dman in outnumbered play in front of our net. ( we’re is Waldo (the rover))
Rovers when compared to forwards are 4 times less successful at generating even goals than forwards. Get the puck to the 210-300 fwds ASAP.
The top 5 rovers performe at a #6 to #9 fwd level (3rd line) and the rest perform at #10 fwd (4th line) or less.
Rovers like Nurse and Klefbom have limited cup core value and create a large negative GA affect.

Garrison Is a type of player needed in the cup core. He has been a top 60 HD dman for 7 of last 8 years. He maybe the needed depth to further cover for Sekeras loss.

Oiler D:
Larsson RD Top 5 1st comp HD with the ability to cover (homeplate) in a 1R-1D-G structure. One of 3 1st comp in NHL. That is more cup core elite than every forward but Mcdavid, Crosby.
Sekera LD Top 10 HD 2nd comp or lower.
Gravel RD top 15 HD 2nd comp when not crohns affected.
Benning RD top 60 HD 2nd/3rd comp
Garrison PTO LD Top,20-60 HD tepemdeng on comp????
Russell #1 0% corsi Dman, Top 20 hd results with top 10 1sr & 2nd comp HD d.

2 potential top 60 HD dmen still available
Top 45Sbisa injured last year.
Emelin with top 30 results last year. Has Top 20 results with elite 1st comp hD dmen. Could provide 1 st comp depth protection.

I didnt do any regressions on any data sets(mostly because I dont trust them, garbage in garbage out), however, from my eye he looks like a keeper.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Definitely an upgrade on Gryba and guys like Lowe and Stanton.

 

[Jepprey]

He had a rocky start to camp and thought of him as a long shot. But he actually got much better as pre season went on. He sure looks slow out there, but not Gryba slow at least. Think the best thing I like so far is his ability to get the puck to the net.

That said, don't mind him as the 7th dman. But won't cry if he isn't.

 

[780il]

I'll take him as the #7, much better than Gryba/Jerabek/Lowe.