Confirmed with Link: Oilers hire Gulutzan, Yawney, & Viveiros as Assistant Coaches

[rboomercat90]

I guess I question why someone who actually watches the practices on a daily basis never has said this. Seems a bit odd.

If Johnson was dismissed from his PK duties that's pretty hard to hide in this city

I mean it makes sense, but seems odd. Was that around the time where TM gave it a test drive for a few practices?

This isn’t really news. There was talk on these boards during the season (I can’t remember exactly when but around February probably seems right) that Mclellan had taken the pk away from Johnson so the rumours were out there. Of course, the improvement also seemed to coincide with Letestu being traded and Mclellan no longer having his favourite player to use. I suspect both Johnson and Mclellan share responsibility in that disaster.

 

[lakai17]

All three coaches up for the head coach position give or take November/ December

 

[guymez]

I was a hater all season and was adamant that this team is a decade away from anything. To be honest, we really aren't.

Looking at the numbers, a fixed PK and PP to even league average would of moves us up at least 6 wins which would of only out us 5 points out of a wildcard spot.

So really a healthy Sekera, Klefbom and maybe one more top 6 winger and the Oilers could be right there. Still a decent distance away from being a threat but we aren't really as bad as I thought.

100%

This is why I had little patience for the chicken little posters (not sure if you were one of them....I am referring more to posters like GK) that ran around spewing the doom and gloom perspective.

This is far from catastrophic and I think this new coaching staff will play a big role in turning things around.
Along with some injured players (and players who just had bad seasons) returning to form and learning a great lesson on the effort level required to win on a consistent basis will be enough to make up the 7 or 8 wins necessary to be in the the thick of things next season.
Chiarelli's decisions this summer will decide if this team will be even better than that.

 

[SK13]

I don't think anybody is a decade away from playoff contention. Any team at any time, with minimal turnover, can make the playoffs given the right luck and momentum. I think we should recognize that trend in the NHL by now.

I think CycloneSweep has a good point, though. If the Oilers had an average PP and average PK, that would have swung them 12 more goals for and 10 fewer goals against. Even Cam Talbot returning to >.915, something I think is almost definitely going to happen, would have saved the Oilers 14 goals against. If the Oilers were lucky and benefited from statistically unlikely to repeat factors (like the health of core players) in 16-17, I think we can say there are some negative unlikely to repeat in 17-18.

 

[bone]

So in short, they overachieved to get 103, but underachieved to get to 78. But what is normal then, understanding that is a 25 point swing. You also should factor the difference in roster (i.e. Eberle > Strome, Pouliot >= Camalerri, Pitlick >= Jujhar, Hendricks vs. Rattie (completely different players so don't know how to evaluate).

I'd argue the team did downgrade its roster last year, not necessarily ton, but possibly a 5 point downgrade. So maybe the split is about 20 points. So say they overachieved by about 10 points 2016-17 (93 expected) and underachieved by about 10 points this year (88 expected). Now can they make the improvements to bring this 88 point team to 95-97 points or are they going to rely on things "working out" to get them there again.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

So in short, they overachieved to get 103, but underachieved to get to 78. But what is normal then, understanding that is a 25 point swing. You also should factor the difference in roster (i.e. Eberle > Strome, Pouliot >= Camalerri, Pitlick >= Jujhar, Hendricks vs. Rattie (completely different players so don't know how to evaluate).

I'd argue the team did downgrade its roster last year, not necessarily ton, but possibly a 5 point downgrade. So maybe the split is about 20 points. So say they overachieved by about 10 points 2016-17 (93 expected) and underachieved by about 10 points this year (88 expected). Now can they make the improvements to bring this 88 point team to 95-97 points or are they going to rely on things "working out" to get them there again.

IMO Khaira >> Pitlick, but I see (and agree with) your point.

 

[bone]

IMO Khaira >> Pitlick, but I see (and agree with) your point.

Yeah that was tough one to pick. Pitlick had 8 in his first 31 last year vs. Khaira 11 in 69, and Pitlick did put up 14 again this year. All in all, I say they are pretty similar players with Pitlick producing a little more scoring but more unreliable due to injury.

It's funny though how I've heard many say that the Pitlick loss was a huge factor, and though I would have liked to have had him still, Khaira essentially replaced him while also bringing potential to play centre. Handedness though sometimes considered a bonus if they shoot right, Khaira's left shot may have even been preferred this year as the Oilers had quite a few right shooting players regularly playing in their bottom six this year (Kassian, Letestu, JP, Slepy, Strome and Pak) but only a few left shots (Khaira, Caggs, and Cammi)

 

[The Panther]

So in short, they overachieved to get 103, but underachieved to get to 78.

I think that is more-or-less correct. I'd say, on paper, the Oilers should be about a 91- to 98-point team, give or take.

91 likely leaves them on the outside looking in, and 98 likely puts them into the playoffs. Whether they trend towards the lower or the higher end of that spectrum will depend on the usual factors (preparation, new coaching staff, health, McDavid, Talbot). But, basically, if they have a good 2018-19 with special teams, they'll be fine.

 

[Yablo21]

I don't know about this... Is no body worried that 'too many chefs spoil the soup?'
And this doesn't solve McLellan being ridiculously stubborn with Lucic and not giving players a chance to succeed i.e. JP, OV2, Slep even Kassian. Didn't play them even when the season was lost. I just really question McLellan's judgment.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I don't know about this... Is no body worried that 'too many chefs spoil the soup?'
And this doesn't solve McLellan being ridiculously stubborn with Lucic and not giving players a chance to succeed i.e. JP, OV2, Slep even Kassian. Didn't play them even when the season was lost. I just really question McLellan's judgment.

I think we had the opposite problem is what we had before. No one question McLellan or gave him opposing opinions.

These guys are all experiences and good enough to question him and hopefully smarten him up

 

[nexttothemoon]

I agree they likely overachieved in their playoff year... their top 11 scorers missed a combined 13 games that season. That's pretty close to unbelievable luck in terms of health/injuries.

Last season they underachieved across the board and everytime they looked like they might go on a little run they fell back to Earth and were consistently mediocre all season. A few more injuries to key players and their season was done.

(103+78)/2 = ~90 pts per season is what they should have had. Instead they likely overachieved on that by ~6 wins 2 years ago and then underachieved by about 6 wins as well last season.

They are a team that should be in the mix for a wildcard spot each year... but probably missing out each year as well because they are not quite consistent and deep enough as a team at this point. The fact that they made it one of the past 2 seasons is probably about as good as it gets to be honest... especially now in a 31 team league where only 52% of the teams make the playoffs.

 

[Gord]

All three coaches up for the head coach position give or take November/ December

I look forward to your posting in December, when the oilers are in a playoff position, admitting how wrong you were.

 

[Satire]

This was my bare minimum award at the end of the season. Special teams played a huge part in our failure, particularly in the first half of the year when the team was generally out-chancing opponents on a consistent basis.

We need our special teams to recover, our goalie to bounce back, our defense to play healthy, and a winger or two to step up...

That's a lot to ask. If 3/4 of those happen we are back in playoffs.

 

[rboomercat90]

I don't know about this... Is no body worried that 'too many chefs spoil the soup?'
And this doesn't solve McLellan being ridiculously stubborn with Lucic and not giving players a chance to succeed i.e. JP, OV2, Slep even Kassian. Didn't play them even when the season was lost. I just really question McLellan's judgment.

There’s a lot of finger crossing, hoping and ignoring the elephant in the room going on right now.

 

[PositiveCashFlow]

I look forward to your posting in December, when the oilers are in a playoff position, admitting how wrong you were.

Do I sense an Avatar Bet in the making?

 

[Gord]

Do I sense an Avatar Bet in the making?

nah.
I hope he's wrong and I think he'll be wrong....but I've learned over the years not to bet on the oilers being successful.

 

[Aerrol]

I was a hater all season and was adamant that this team is a decade away from anything. To be honest, we really aren't.

Looking at the numbers, a fixed PK and PP to even league average would of moves us up at least 6 wins which would of only out us 5 points out of a wildcard spot.

So really a healthy Sekera, Klefbom and maybe one more top 6 winger and the Oilers could be right there. Still a decent distance away from being a threat but we aren't really as bad as I thought.

I almost spit out my water seeing that you were the one posting this, haha.

 

[guymez]

I almost spit out my water seeing that you were the one posting this, haha.

I hear you.

Huge props to @CycloneSweep. Its not easy to back away from a long held position.
He/she deserves some credit IMO.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I hear you.

Huge props to @CycloneSweep. Its not easy to back away from a long held position.
He/she deserves some credit IMO.

When you step away and do a real look it's not as bad as it looks. Are we in a good situation? Not really but there are teams far far worse off.

The change up in the coaching staff definitely shows the org recognizing a problem and making moves to address it without firing the head coach. Shows they believe in him just believe they didn't give him what he needed to succeed.

Also people nowadays need to be willing to change their opinion.

 

[MessierII]

I think a lot of people came into this season a little overhyped on the team and there was a strong emotional reaction to the teams struggles during the season. Now that the dust has settled the disappointment has subdued its easier to look at things a little more logically.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I actually though the Oilers D was going to be pretty solid going into last season... it was the forwards I thought were mediocre/weak which might be a problem.

I didn't count on the goaltending going into the shitter and basically 80% of the team regressing and an overall mediocre effort from everyone outside of a handful of players (at best).

 

[ujju2]

I'm a part time Caps fan, so I'm biased, but looking at the Caps this postseason tells me how weak our wingers are. They have Kuznetsov and Backstrom, and I'd call Kuznetsov and Drai a wash. Backstrom is a big step back from McDavid, but to make up for it, on the wings, they have Ovi, Oshie, Wilson (who plays Lucic's role better than Looch does at a fraction of the cost), Vrana, Burakovsky, etc instead of Nuge (who is good), Lucic, Rattie, Aberg, etc.

That's a massive difference on the wings. Plus a better defence than ours. And goalie.

The thing most worth noting here to me is that with the exception of Oshie, all the Caps players I mentioned were drafted and developed by the Caps. Ovi, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Wilson, Vrana, Burakovsky, etc. So this gives me hope that if we continue to draft decently well, we actually won't be as far as it seems we are. For example, if in two years, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Benson are top-6 NHL wingers, then we're in fine shape. That's how this Caps team seems to have been built.

 

[Kagomeboy]

Some new hires ,good I think maybe this can help the Oilers make the playoffs.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I'm a part time Caps fan, so I'm biased, but looking at the Caps this postseason tells me how weak our wingers are. They have Kuznetsov and Backstrom, and I'd call Kuznetsov and Drai a wash. Backstrom is a big step back from McDavid, but to make up for it, on the wings, they have Ovi, Oshie, Wilson (who plays Lucic's role better than Looch does at a fraction of the cost), Vrana, Burakovsky, etc instead of Nuge (who is good), Lucic, Rattie, Aberg, etc.

That's a massive difference on the wings. Plus a better defence than ours. And goalie.

The thing most worth noting here to me is that with the exception of Oshie, all the Caps players I mentioned were drafted and developed by the Caps. Ovi, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Wilson, Vrana, Burakovsky, etc. So this gives me hope that if we continue to draft decently well, we actually won't be as far as it seems we are. For example, if in two years, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Benson are top-6 NHL wingers, then we're in fine shape. That's how this Caps team seems to have been built.

For as good as tom wilson is and im a huge fan of him, he still barely outscored a lucic who was god awful this year.

 

[ujju2]

For as good as tom wilson is and im a huge fan of him, he still barely outscored a lucic who was god awful this year.

But the physicality aspect is tremendously useful.