Pre-Game Talk: Oilers @ Hawks game 4 @ 4:45 pm MT

[Mr Positive]

Why couldn't Jarmo have just taken Pulju and then we could have had Dubois.

we were going to take Sergachev

 

[GOilers88]

we were going to take Sergachev

I remember really wanting them to draft Provorov and Sergachev in their respective years. Obviously you can't really be too upset with McDavid instead, but even with the hype surrounding JP I still really wanted Serg as we lost Provorov the year before. Back to back chances at guys with legit #1 potential and the gods said nope. Funny how it works.

 

[Mr Positive]

I remember really wanting them to draft Provorov and Sergachev in their respective years. Obviously you can't really be too upset with McDavid instead, but even with the hype surrounding JP I still really wanted Serg as we lost Provorov the year before. Back to back chances at guys with legit #1 potential and the gods said nope. Funny how it works.

well you never know I guess. Who knows, maybe JP comes back and gels with McDavid and it's not so bad anymore.

Personally I am more worried about our future in net than a lack of #1 D

 

[ZJuice]

leafs blow a game, HF crashes lmao

can't help but feel bad for them

Feel bad for a fan of that team? Hahaha

 

[KlefDown]

Also can’t help but feel bad for jets too

8m locked up on Big Buff in dead space and losing their two must important players in Schief and Laine in their first game

 

[KlefDown]

Feel bad for a fan of that team? Hahaha

Being a fan of any sports teams is just so painful ((

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I've been on the mainboards and I'm currently getting laughed at by 5 separate Hawks fans for suggesting that Nuge is the 5th best forward on the ice in this series after McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, and Toews (which is generous imo because Toews has been declining for years).

I feel like this is inherently obvious but they are actually arguing that Debrincat, Saad, Kubalik, and Dach (?!?!?!) are currently better than RNH. The reasoning is that he is a product of Draisaitl which is so hypocritical because these are the same forums that get blue in the face screaming about how Draisaitl is carried by McDavid in every sense of the word.

I honestly don't even believe that its a homer take to think that RNH is the best of that bunch but I'm absolutely dumbfounded what is being argued by the masses. If it was just 1 guy you can dismiss it as one biased ass fan but their whole fanbase actually believes this.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

delete

 

[Del Preston]

I've been on the mainboards and I'm currently getting laughed at by 5 separate Hawks fans for suggesting that Nuge is the 5th best forward on the ice in this series after McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, and Toews (which is generous imo because Toews has been declining for years).

I feel like this is inherently obvious but they are actually arguing that Debrincat, Saad, Kubalik, and Dach (?!?!?!) are currently better than RNH. The reasoning is that he is a product of Draisaitl which is so hypocritical because these are the same forums that get blue in the face screaming about how Draisaitl is carried by McDavid in every sense of the word.

I honestly don't even believe that its a homer take to think that RNH is the best of that bunch but I'm absolutely dumbfounded what is being argued by the masses. If it was just 1 guy you can dismiss it as one biased ass fan but their whole fanbase actually believes this.

The main boards are cesspool, you're not gonna get a fair argument. There were Hawks fans downplaying how good Draisaitl and McDavid were this season too.

 

[Oilhawks]

I've been on the mainboards and I'm currently getting laughed at by 5 separate Hawks fans for suggesting that Nuge is the 5th best forward on the ice in this series after McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, and Toews (which is generous imo because Toews has been declining for years).

I feel like this is inherently obvious but they are actually arguing that Debrincat, Saad, Kubalik, and Dach (?!?!?!) are currently better than RNH. The reasoning is that he is a product of Draisaitl which is so hypocritical because these are the same forums that get blue in the face screaming about how Draisaitl is carried by McDavid in every sense of the word.

I honestly don't even believe that its a homer take to think that RNH is the best of that bunch but I'm absolutely dumbfounded what is being argued by the masses. If it was just 1 guy you can dismiss it as one biased ass fan but their whole fanbase actually believes this.

A lot of Hawks fans on here are pretty much bandwagon / fairweather. Used to post on occasion (but mostly lurked, including before I registered) but couldn't be bothered to stick around. They would get as bad as it gets here after losses sometimes, even though the team was great. It was ridiculous. Very bi-polar swing from Hawks are the best team of all time to the sky is falling sort of mentality. There were a few good posters though.

I would imagine the posters claiming that are pretty ignorant and likely don't know much about the players not playing on the Hawks (and probably don't know a lot about the ones that do).

 

[sportsfan944804]

Back in baby's arms. How I missed those lovely arms. I'm back where I belong, back in baby's arms. Ah yes...one day away from singing its praises -- oh draft lottery heed our call...Lafreniere? Set up his stall...

Let's compare our win in game 2 to the loss last night.

Win: CF% of 58.14, 17-8 HDSC

Loss: CF% of 52.11, 9-5 HDSC

We outplayed the Hawks in both games. Not sure how the refs were chosen, but it seems as though there are hardly penalties being given out in the East, while the West is a straight up parade to the box. I am fine with Yamamoto taking that penalty. If you're going to be taking a penalty, make sure you hurt a guy. Don't get 2 minutes for some cheap little stick tap after the whistle or grabbing a guy for no reason, etc. Yes, a few of the calls were brutal (Russell's 'hold' + AA's 'hold'), but the boys were playing a bit silly out there. Didn't mind Yamo's boarding call at all, but I did mind his holding call in the corner earlier in the game. Stupid play too far from your own zone. Our PP looked weird in the recent loss, and the ice is atrocious. Nobody can handle the puck out there. Bouncing everywhere. Questioning why we have RNH now moving the puck into the zone as opposed to McDavid. Maybe a new look, but why is it necessary? Davo has skated the puck in all season which led to a historic PP %. Interesting decision and we'll see how it plays out. PP didn't look too hot last night did it?

Koskinen should be starting next game. He is far more calmer in the net than Smith. Only one goal last night was off a Hawks player's stick. The rest bounced around wildy. His SV% is not looking good, but I think it's clear he is safer goalie to bet the house on. Koskinen was a couple very flukey bounces due to bad ice and luck away from being a .940 SV% goalie last night. Keep him in there. Looks confident and cool out there, and I think the boys like that.

Couple notes on some players...

Do not let Kris Russell fool you. Yes, it seems that over the last 4.5 months, Russell has got healthy and looks to be skating the puck a lot more. Jumping in the rush, pinching, etc. Yes, he is doing all of this and it is leading to him receiving praise from our posters here and analysts. Is it deserved though? I mean, our defence is a dumpster fire completely void of offence, so ANY defenceman making a move with the puck up the ice is going to be refreshing.

Kris Russell was a 34% CF last night at evens. Far and away last on the team. And hey, I applauded him for two or so good rushes with the puck that led to a shot on net. He did do that. He failed brutally at every other point of the game. I believe the increased ice time due to Larsson's absence (which we will get into later) attributed to this. He saw a 7 minute increase in ice time and looked absolutely horrific aside from the one or two rushes with the puck. He is costing this team games. Klefbom had to do more than carrying him, and he just isn't a good enough defenceman himself to be truly carrying a D partner in the way Bear has carried Nurse.

Adam Larsson's absence. So, what do we make of this? It led to increased minutes for Russell and Klefbom, identical minutes for Benning, Nurse, Bear (roughly), and 10 minutes for the rookie Caleb Jones. Did we miss Larsson? Well, we replaced half his minutes with Caleb Jones, and the other half with increases of minutes for our Klefbom-Russell pairing. The Klefbom-Russell pairing was BAD. They got demolished by 2nd comp last night. I know that we outchanced the opposition overall, but Russell was by every metric I know our worst defenceman by a large margin. Followed by Nurse and Klefbom. Bear, Benning, and Jones all shined. Caleb Jones played only 10 minutes, but he looked damn good. What a dynamic player. I know he was against 3rd/4th comp, but damn he was impressive to watch. Moves the puck around so smartly. Can skate quite well -- well enough to move out of pressure effectively. Made a couple beautiful passes under pressure from behind our net or closer to the corner towards the middle of the ice for our centre to pick up with speed. Only him and Bear are capable of making a pass like that in our lineup. Two rookies. How sad is that? I always notice that kind of pass because it is so beautiful and in my opinion the mark of a great defenceman. At least with the potential to be great. We see that Ethan Bear is now a great defenceman in that he is getting the hardest matchups possible and he is excelling. Not sure where all this talk has come from about Bear struggling. he was a 52% CF last night on a team that had Russell 34%, Nurse 45%, and Klefbom 46%. Bear had harder minutes than any of them. Similar to Nurse. And Caleb Jones? Sitting pretty at 81% -- 13 chances for, 3 chances against. Him and Benning did well last night.

Back to my original question. What do we make of the Larsson absence? Well, in our win (his last game), he was a team defenceman worst 48%. That was a game in which McDavid was at 66%, Nurse at 65%, Bear at 61%, etc. I am not sure. Caleb Jones did incredible in taking up half of Larsson's minutes, while Klefbom-Russell did horribly taking the other half. I think if Tippett were to increase Jones' minutes...perhaps even put him with Klefbom and bring Klef back down to their normal 20-22 minutes with Nurse-Bear at 24-26, I don't think we would miss Larsson at all. In fact, I think the team would be better off. Kris Russell should not be playing in the NHL. He is a brutal detriment to the team every time he's on the ice, even if he has 'looked' like he is making good rushing plays with the puck in comparison to some of our other defencemen who are incapable of making a play with the puck as well.

The contrast is stark between Chicago's 'aging' defence core -- specifically Duncan Keith...then their kids like Boqvist, De Haan, Murphy, Maatta, Koekkoek. Want to notice a trend that their defence has that ours doesn't? And this may seem weird...but aside from Keith, those were all incredibly high draft picks. Meaning that they all had immense/good offensive skill or projected skill. And they do. Compare how their D are capable of getting shots on net. If Chicago wins this series, it will be because of their defencemen's ability to get pucks on our net from the point.

I would love to see a stat that shows how many point shots they have compared to us. It would actually make me sick, but I'd love to see it regardless. Half their goals this series are off tips, bounces, shots stemming from a nice look from the point. Their D embarrass ours in this regard. I've seen two of our D get a shot on net this series. Benning last game which led to a Draisaitl goal, and Klefbom once on the PP which led to a nice opportunity on the rebound. How f***ing hard is it to just whip pucks on net through traffic? Is it a forward problem where they aren't doing a good job of getting in Crawford's face so the D feel as though it isn't worth it too shoot -- option to rim it around the boards to watch our player get outmuscled or outplayed and for Chicago to skate effortlessly out of their own zone? Or is it a lack of our D having confidence or skill to put pucks on net themselves? I'm going with the latter. Either way, this series is made or broken by defensive acumen ... as most playoff series in the NHL are. Hilarious watching Duncan Keith put on a show out there. Playing how you should in the playoffs. Slashing the shit out of our guys in front of the net. Skating the puck beautifully around the ice. Whipping it around on the PP like he's been there before. Rifling one timers. Sitting pretty at a PPG pace so far this playoffs. Putting our D to shame at 37 years old. Wouldn't be surprised to see him on the Olympic team again, he's that good.

AA has looked decent. Probably shouldn't be in the top 6 though. Ennis has looked terrible, shame he is injured though. I think Haas will step up in a big way in his place. Yamamoto has looked less-worse than terrible, but still bad. Draisaitl has looked bad even with his goals. Something has to change in the lineup. Again, we are outplaying Chicago by quite a big margin. Just getting unlucky at this point...but there is always room for optimization. It should be clear to our coaching staff that our team isn't built to be cycling the puck. We almost never generate chances off it in comparison to Chicago for example. It's hilarious how the analysts continually mention this 'heavy' line we are deploying of Neal-Khaira-Chiasson. Yes, they're heavy as in they're dragging this team into the ground. Even in that win where Neal & Chiasson both scored, they were sitting at 43% and 35% CF's respectively -- the two lowest on the entire team. That line is the only line even remotely capable of cycling, and even then it is nearly always for naught. This line is horrific, but I do admit we have few other options at this point. Contrast this cycling to Chicago's, where they always have the 3F sneak off away from the play and show up just in time between our low winger and D covering the net, while our other D and C are in the corner battling. They find this soft spot of ice where the guy who inevitably wins the puck battle in the corner/behind the net knows he will be. Seen them set this play up 20x+ this series already, and the D haven't adjusted yet. All their player has to do is whip the puck to this area...all he has to do is get it by one guy once he gains control of the puck and it's a clean one-timer on net from the ring of the faceoff circle, just a foot or so below the dot and another half foot outside the ring towards the middle of the ice. They do this all game long. Please someone tell the coaching staff to stop letting them do this. Thanks.

So what do we do? I think we do the only thing we feasibly can do in a win-or-go-home situation. This is a must win game, so you do the only thing that you know will give you the best chance to win in a one-off game. If I get this line prediction right, well, it will be one more in a long line of many recently.

Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto
AA-RNH-Archibald
Neal-Haas-Kassian
Khaira-Sheahan-Chiasson

Nurse-Bear (28-30 minutes)
Klefbom-Jones (20-22 minutes)
Russell-Benning (as low as possible)

Must win game. You ride your big guns til they can't go any more. And if you win, well you're back at it the next day to do it all over again. This time you do the same thing and you assure the players they get a few days rest after if they win. Also warn them they may get 6+ month's rest if they lose.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

The main boards are cesspool, you're not gonna get a fair argument. There were Hawks fans downplaying how good Draisaitl and McDavid were this season too.

None are more egregious than Leaf fans. They've argued this season that Draisaitl is naturally a 60 point player, it was truly unbelievable to read. Its just brutally obvious insecurity since Draisaitl was voted better than Matthews

 

[The Moose is Loose]

A lot of Hawks fans on here are pretty much bandwagon / fairweather. Used to post on occasion (but mostly lurked, including before I registered) but couldn't be bothered to stick around. They would get as bad as it gets here after losses sometimes, even though the team was great. It was ridiculous. Very bi-polar swing from Hawks are the best team of all time to the sky is falling sort of mentality. There were a few good posters though.

I would imagine the posters claiming that are pretty ignorant and likely don't know much about the players not playing on the Hawks (and probably don't know a lot about the ones that do).

Yeah thats probably pretty likely. I need to waste less time on the mainboards. It's only good for raising blood pressure.

 

[Oilhawks]

Yeah thats probably pretty likely. I need to waste less time on the mainboards. It's only good for raising blood pressure.

I only go on for schadenfreude purposes when a team I hate fails horribly. It has the opposite effect.

 

[MuzzaFuzza]

Hot take: Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver out of the Laf sweepstakes is a good thing.

I never saw clarification on it but does Vancouver's pick go to NJ via TB now even if they lose to MIN and win the lottery?

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Hey, I'm not that optimistic about tomorrow, but if we don't make it through... it's been a weird ass season, and the players we love the most showed how amazing they can be. It's been a fun one. Let's take solace in the fact that we saw some of the best plays we'll ever see in our lives, and some glimmers of what this team can do.

Let's kill 'em tomorrow, but if not. Wild season, everyone.

 

[Cloned]

I never saw clarification on it but does Vancouver's pick go to NJ via TB now even if they lose to MIN and win the lottery?

No one knows for sure because the NHL is likely to step in depending on what happens.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I've been on the mainboards and I'm currently getting laughed at by 5 separate Hawks fans for suggesting that Nuge is the 5th best forward on the ice in this series after McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, and Toews (which is generous imo because Toews has been declining for years).

I feel like this is inherently obvious but they are actually arguing that Debrincat, Saad, Kubalik, and Dach (?!?!?!) are currently better than RNH. The reasoning is that he is a product of Draisaitl which is so hypocritical because these are the same forums that get blue in the face screaming about how Draisaitl is carried by McDavid in every sense of the word.

I honestly don't even believe that its a homer take to think that RNH is the best of that bunch but I'm absolutely dumbfounded what is being argued by the masses. If it was just 1 guy you can dismiss it as one biased ass fan but their whole fanbase actually believes this.

Most people on this board aren't going to want to hear this, but I think Nuge is quite overrated on HFOil. And I'm die hard Oilers fan. I guess I just don't see what everyone else does.

He had a terrific rookie season, looked great for a first overall pick. Then it seemed his offensive creativity was coached out of him early in his career because we were a terrible team that bled goals and seemed more important for him to try to stop them than scoring them himself. He was then given the toughest matchups and thus praised for developing into a great two way centerman despite his inability to never have been able to win faceoffs or play with physicality and his offense dropping off. He's only now recovered offensively as a winger playing with two of the best offensive centers in the league but can't be counted on to drive his own line. He's also mostly invisible in the playoffs.

That's just my opinion, which seems to reflect with a lot of fans around the league, and you're welcome to disagree with it.

I think he's a nice complimentary winger, but so is DeBrincat, and DeBrincat has scored 40 goals. To say RNH is 'easily' better than DeBrincat, Kubalik and Dach in this series isn't a far out opinion.

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

A lot of Hawks fans on here are pretty much bandwagon / fairweather. Used to post on occasion (but mostly lurked, including before I registered) but couldn't be bothered to stick around. They would get as bad as it gets here after losses sometimes, even though the team was great. It was ridiculous. Very bi-polar swing from Hawks are the best team of all time to the sky is falling sort of mentality. There were a few good posters though.

I would imagine the posters claiming that are pretty ignorant and likely don't know much about the players not playing on the Hawks (and probably don't know a lot about the ones that do).

Yeah thats probably pretty likely. I need to waste less time on the mainboards. It's only good for raising blood pressure.

Most Hawks fans never watched hockey before 2010. After Roenick/Belfour/Chelios left Chicago at the end of the 90s, the attendance for United Center fell sharply and was last in the NHL post-lockout until 2010 when they won the cup.

At least the Leafs fans, annoying as they are, actually follow hockey religiously and you can sit next to one at a game (home or away) and not have it turn into a fight.

 

[Oilhawks]

Hey, I'm not that optimistic about tomorrow, but if we don't make it through... it's been a weird ass season, and the players we love the most showed how amazing they can be. It's been a fun one. Let's take solace in the fact that we saw some of the best plays we'll ever see in our lives, and some glimmers of what this team can do.

Let's kill 'em tomorrow, but if not. Wild season, everyone.

Yeah, I'm pretty much at this stage too (acceptance). Come around to feeling some small excitement that they have a chance of setting the top 6 with the 1OA, but won't be too disappointed if they don't win. Excited to see what Holland does to nibble around the edges this offseason to improve the roster. Unfortunately it won't be as much as it could have been with a flat cap but I think he might surprise with a Russell trade or something to clear cap for a middle 6 guy, maybe another trade, bring back Pulju etc.

 

[Three On Zero]

I never saw clarification on it but does Vancouver's pick go to NJ via TB now even if they lose to MIN and win the lottery?

If Vancouver loses to Minnesota we keep the pick, if Vancouver beats Minnesota NJ gets the pick

 

[HallOfGreatness4]

Is this it? I pray not.

 

[Rpenny]

The main boards are cesspool, you're not gonna get a fair argument. There were Hawks fans downplaying how good Draisaitl and McDavid were this season too.

Oilers have shit the bed these playoffs. As a team we have massive problems. I was going to stay in town this weekend, but the family and are heading up north for a week of camping. Oiler fans can get as upset as much as they like about the main board: we gave them the ammo. Our D sucks, goalies have been wonkee, and no scoring from the 3rd and 4th line. We thought we had a great trade deadline but we got bent over. Two second rounders for AA? almost as bad as a first for Reinhart

 

[Oilhawks]

Oilers have shit the bed these playoffs. As a team we have massive problems. I was going to stay in town this weekend, but the family and are heading up north for a week of camping. Oiler fans can get as upset as much as they like about the main board: we gave them the ammo. Our D sucks, goalies have been wonkee, and no scoring from the 3rd and 4th line. We thought we had a great trade deadline but we got bent over. Two second rounders for AA? almost as bad as a first for Reinhart

To the bolded, lol nope.

To the rest, the mains would shit on the Oilers even if the won the cup. So, meh.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Back in baby's arms. How I missed those lovely arms. I'm back where I belong, back in baby's arms. Ah yes...one day away from singing its praises -- oh draft lottery heed our call...Lafreniere? Set up his stall...

Let's compare our win in game 2 to the loss last night.

Win: CF% of 58.14, 17-8 HDSC

Loss: CF% of 52.11, 9-5 HDSC

We outplayed the Hawks in both games. Not sure how the refs were chosen, but it seems as though there are hardly penalties being given out in the East, while the West is a straight up parade to the box. I am fine with Yamamoto taking that penalty. If you're going to be taking a penalty, make sure you hurt a guy. Don't get 2 minutes for some cheap little stick tap after the whistle or grabbing a guy for no reason, etc. Yes, a few of the calls were brutal (Russell's 'hold' + AA's 'hold'), but the boys were playing a bit silly out there. Didn't mind Yamo's boarding call at all, but I did mind his holding call in the corner earlier in the game. Stupid play too far from your own zone. Our PP looked weird in the recent loss, and the ice is atrocious. Nobody can handle the puck out there. Bouncing everywhere. Questioning why we have RNH now moving the puck into the zone as opposed to McDavid. Maybe a new look, but why is it necessary? Davo has skated the puck in all season which led to a historic PP %. Interesting decision and we'll see how it plays out. PP didn't look too hot last night did it?

Koskinen should be starting next game. He is far more calmer in the net than Smith. Only one goal last night was off a Hawks player's stick. The rest bounced around wildy. His SV% is not looking good, but I think it's clear he is safer goalie to bet the house on. Koskinen was a couple very flukey bounces due to bad ice and luck away from being a .940 SV% goalie last night. Keep him in there. Looks confident and cool out there, and I think the boys like that.

Couple notes on some players...

Do not let Kris Russell fool you. Yes, it seems that over the last 4.5 months, Russell has got healthy and looks to be skating the puck a lot more. Jumping in the rush, pinching, etc. Yes, he is doing all of this and it is leading to him receiving praise from our posters here and analysts. Is it deserved though? I mean, our defence is a dumpster fire completely void of offence, so ANY defenceman making a move with the puck up the ice is going to be refreshing.

Kris Russell was a 34% CF last night at evens. Far and away last on the team. And hey, I applauded him for two or so good rushes with the puck that led to a shot on net. He did do that. He failed brutally at every other point of the game. I believe the increased ice time due to Larsson's absence (which we will get into later) attributed to this. He saw a 7 minute increase in ice time and looked absolutely horrific aside from the one or two rushes with the puck. He is costing this team games. Klefbom had to do more than carrying him, and he just isn't a good enough defenceman himself to be truly carrying a D partner in the way Bear has carried Nurse.

Adam Larsson's absence. So, what do we make of this? It led to increased minutes for Russell and Klefbom, identical minutes for Benning, Nurse, Bear (roughly), and 10 minutes for the rookie Caleb Jones. Did we miss Larsson? Well, we replaced half his minutes with Caleb Jones, and the other half with increases of minutes for our Klefbom-Russell pairing. The Klefbom-Russell pairing was BAD. They got demolished by 2nd comp last night. I know that we outchanced the opposition overall, but Russell was by every metric I know our worst defenceman by a large margin. Followed by Nurse and Klefbom. Bear, Benning, and Jones all shined. Caleb Jones played only 10 minutes, but he looked damn good. What a dynamic player. I know he was against 3rd/4th comp, but damn he was impressive to watch. Moves the puck around so smartly. Can skate quite well -- well enough to move out of pressure effectively. Made a couple beautiful passes under pressure from behind our net or closer to the corner towards the middle of the ice for our centre to pick up with speed. Only him and Bear are capable of making a pass like that in our lineup. Two rookies. How sad is that? I always notice that kind of pass because it is so beautiful and in my opinion the mark of a great defenceman. At least with the potential to be great. We see that Ethan Bear is now a great defenceman in that he is getting the hardest matchups possible and he is excelling. Not sure where all this talk has come from about Bear struggling. he was a 52% CF last night on a team that had Russell 34%, Nurse 45%, and Klefbom 46%. Bear had harder minutes than any of them. Similar to Nurse. And Caleb Jones? Sitting pretty at 81% -- 13 chances for, 3 chances against. Him and Benning did well last night.

Back to my original question. What do we make of the Larsson absence? Well, in our win (his last game), he was a team defenceman worst 48%. That was a game in which McDavid was at 66%, Nurse at 65%, Bear at 61%, etc. I am not sure. Caleb Jones did incredible in taking up half of Larsson's minutes, while Klefbom-Russell did horribly taking the other half. I think if Tippett were to increase Jones' minutes...perhaps even put him with Klefbom and bring Klef back down to their normal 20-22 minutes with Nurse-Bear at 24-26, I don't think we would miss Larsson at all. In fact, I think the team would be better off. Kris Russell should not be playing in the NHL. He is a brutal detriment to the team every time he's on the ice, even if he has 'looked' like he is making good rushing plays with the puck in comparison to some of our other defencemen who are incapable of making a play with the puck as well.

The contrast is stark between Chicago's 'aging' defence core -- specifically Duncan Keith...then their kids like Boqvist, De Haan, Murphy, Maatta, Koekkoek. Want to notice a trend that their defence has that ours doesn't? And this may seem weird...but aside from Keith, those were all incredibly high draft picks. Meaning that they all had immense/good offensive skill or projected skill. And they do. Compare how their D are capable of getting shots on net. If Chicago wins this series, it will be because of their defencemen's ability to get pucks on our net from the point.

I would love to see a stat that shows how many point shots they have compared to us. It would actually make me sick, but I'd love to see it regardless. Half their goals this series are off tips, bounces, shots stemming from a nice look from the point. Their D embarrass ours in this regard. I've seen two of our D get a shot on net this series. Benning last game which led to a Draisaitl goal, and Klefbom once on the PP which led to a nice opportunity on the rebound. How f***ing hard is it to just whip pucks on net through traffic? Is it a forward problem where they aren't doing a good job of getting in Crawford's face so the D feel as though it isn't worth it too shoot -- option to rim it around the boards to watch our player get outmuscled or outplayed and for Chicago to skate effortlessly out of their own zone? Or is it a lack of our D having confidence or skill to put pucks on net themselves? I'm going with the latter. Either way, this series is made or broken by defensive acumen ... as most playoff series in the NHL are. Hilarious watching Duncan Keith put on a show out there. Playing how you should in the playoffs. Slashing the shit out of our guys in front of the net. Skating the puck beautifully around the ice. Whipping it around on the PP like he's been there before. Rifling one timers. Sitting pretty at a PPG pace so far this playoffs. Putting our D to shame at 37 years old. Wouldn't be surprised to see him on the Olympic team again, he's that good.

AA has looked decent. Probably shouldn't be in the top 6 though. Ennis has looked terrible, shame he is injured though. I think Haas will step up in a big way in his place. Yamamoto has looked less-worse than terrible, but still bad. Draisaitl has looked bad even with his goals. Something has to change in the lineup. Again, we are outplaying Chicago by quite a big margin. Just getting unlucky at this point...but there is always room for optimization. It should be clear to our coaching staff that our team isn't built to be cycling the puck. We almost never generate chances off it in comparison to Chicago for example. It's hilarious how the analysts continually mention this 'heavy' line we are deploying of Neal-Khaira-Chiasson. Yes, they're heavy as in they're dragging this team into the ground. Even in that win where Neal & Chiasson both scored, they were sitting at 43% and 35% CF's respectively -- the two lowest on the entire team. That line is the only line even remotely capable of cycling, and even then it is nearly always for naught. This line is horrific, but I do admit we have few other options at this point. Contrast this cycling to Chicago's, where they always have the 3F sneak off away from the play and show up just in time between our low winger and D covering the net, while our other D and C are in the corner battling. They find this soft spot of ice where the guy who inevitably wins the puck battle in the corner/behind the net knows he will be. Seen them set this play up 20x+ this series already, and the D haven't adjusted yet. All their player has to do is whip the puck to this area...all he has to do is get it by one guy once he gains control of the puck and it's a clean one-timer on net from the ring of the faceoff circle, just a foot or so below the dot and another half foot outside the ring towards the middle of the ice. They do this all game long. Please someone tell the coaching staff to stop letting them do this. Thanks.

So what do we do? I think we do the only thing we feasibly can do in a win-or-go-home situation. This is a must win game, so you do the only thing that you know will give you the best chance to win in a one-off game. If I get this line prediction right, well, it will be one more in a long line of many recently.

Draisaitl-McDavid-Yamamoto
AA-RNH-Archibald
Neal-Haas-Kassian
Khaira-Sheahan-Chiasson

Nurse-Bear (28-30 minutes)
Klefbom-Jones (20-22 minutes)
Russell-Benning (as low as possible)

Must win game. You ride your big guns til they can't go any more. And if you win, well you're back at it the next day to do it all over again. This time you do the same thing and you assure the players they get a few days rest after if they win. Also warn them they may get 6+ month's rest if they lose.

Congrats on the record for longest HF post ever.

good read though