Oilers fall 3-1

[hossy316]

That's not the point. They are putting up points despite what people on here seem to think. HOw many goals do we expect these guys to score.

Would I like to see more at ES, yes. But PP goals count too, especially when it is the first two lines drawing almost all the penalties as well.

I have no idea what the stats are but I'd be willing to bet that close to 50% of the goals nowadays are scored with the man advantage.

 

[Fourier]

Math is fun.

You know it's only a 48 game season, right?

Might as well make some career predictions while you're at it.

Gagner 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Hall 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Eberle 576 pts in next 8 seasons.
Yaks 496 pts in next 8 seasons.
Nuge and Schutz 416 pts each in next 8 seasons.

Math is fun. As is understanding what it tells you.

When the claim is that the first line in particular and the first two lines in general are not producing how do you counter this?

The numbers I posted seem to contradict this assertion. What do your numbers tell me other than the fact that you completely missed the point.

 

[Replacement*]

Dawning a pitchfork after a few losses is about as ridiculous.

In a 48 GP season any "few losses' is the difference between making the playoffs and not. We had a chance of a 5pt gap between Oilers/AV's. We end up with one point. We lost a 4 point game with a divisional rival and gave them much needed confidence playing against us in the remaining 3 games in the set. Sounds like a bad idea.

 

[hossy316]

Math is fun. As is understanding what it tells you.

When the claim is that the first line in particular and the first two lines in general are not producing how do you counter this?

The numbers I posted seem to contradict this assertion. What do your numbers tell me other than the fact that you completely missed the point.

I wouldn't even bother with these people. You're wasting your time.

 

[oilers92]

Look at the positives, atleast Omark is tearing it up, Oilers might get that 3rd come playoffs...

yeh because undersized one way players with little heart and character issues relating to where he plays are what all nhl teams really want

 

[Replacement*]

I have no idea what the stats are but I'd be willing to bet that close to 50% of the goals nowadays are scored with the man advantage.

Exactly. The team has done very little at even strength and the first line are heavily aided by the sublime decision making of J Schultz who has been responsible for sustaining much of the offense the first line has. His reads and decisions to pinch, join play have been fantastic. Out of this world really for a rookie D. But frankly I can't for the life of me imagine this level of adroit success continuing indefinitely for J Schultz as he flirts with top NHL offensive D territory.

One really big factor is the NHL is currently cracking down on a lot of new rules and in general. As we often see in the NHL as the season progresses theres less penalty calls until late in the season and playoffs when theres few penalty calls. Right now special teams minutes is a gift for this club. PP and Pk is where we are best. Penalty filled games are made to order for this lineup.

 

[Fourier]

I have no idea what the stats are but I'd be willing to bet that close to 50% of the goals nowadays are scored with the man advantage.

In fact right now about 28% of the goals scored are on the pp this year. The Oilers have a much higher % than the norm. This is due to the fact that they have a very good pp as well as the fact that they are struggling to score at ES.

Not scoring at ES is an issue. But this has as much to do with no scoring from the 3/4 lines and the defense as it does with any issues with the top 2 lines.

 

[Marconius]

Math is fun.

You know it's only a 48 game season, right?

Might as well make some career predictions while you're at it.

Gagner 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Hall 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Eberle 576 pts in next 8 seasons.
Yaks 496 pts in next 8 seasons.
Nuge and Schutz 416 pts each in next 8 seasons.

You roll your eyes, but you're completely missing his point. He's not saying that those are the numbers he expects after an 82 game season. He's saying based on the available evidence after 8 games, the top 6 is not having as much trouble as some think putting up points as some say. Sure those numbers fluctuate, but right now there isn't a lot of evidence to support the lack of offense argument (at least from the top 6, the bottom 6 are another matter entirely)

 

[hossy316]

IMO, the San Jose game the other night, the Oilers created more chances 5 vs. 5 in that one game then they did in their previous games combined.

Chalk yesterdays loss up to a variety of things, flights from Phoenix, to San Jose, and back to Colorado's altitude didn't help, but the team is progressing. There are no "easy" games this season. The schedule is brtual for the teams in the west vs. teams in the east, so a game like this is going to happen. Capitlize on some of their chances earlier in the game and it's a different story. What do some of you people have to say to that "awful" Red Wing team that lost to the "lowly" Blue Jackets yesterday??

 

[Philly85*]

IMO, the San Jose game the other night, the Oilers created more chances 5 vs. 5 in that one game then they did in their previous games combined.

Chalk yesterdays loss up to a variety of things, flights from Phoenix, to San Jose, and back to Colorado's altitude didn't help, but the team is progressing. There are no "easy" games this season. The schedule is brtual for the teams in the west vs. teams in the east, so a game like this is going to happen. Capitlize on some of their chances earlier in the game and it's a different story. What do some of you people have to say to that "awful" Red Wing team that lost to the "lowly" Blue Jackets yesterday??

Pretty much all that needs to be said.

I will add though, haha... they should break that top 6 up and do some shuffling.

Hall-Gagner-Hemsky
Yakupov-RNH-Eberle

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Look at the positives, atleast Omark is tearing it up, Oilers might get that 3rd come playoffs...

Shouldn't you be posting in some obscure Swiss forum?

 

[Replacement*]

You roll your eyes, but you're completely missing his point. He's not saying that those are the numbers he expects after an 82 game season. He's saying based on the available evidence after 8 games, the top 6 is not having as much trouble as some think putting up points as some say. Sure those numbers fluctuate, but right now there isn't a lot of evidence to support the lack of offense argument (at least from the top 6, the bottom 6 are another matter entirely)

No, he's speciously stating projections of points to evade whats been raised as a question in this and other threads. For instance that the topline has scored only 5 goals all season despite huge amounts of PP time, a great offensive supporting D, and huge minutes in general. With RNH scoring zero goals and none in his last 19GP.(I din't bring that stat up, just confirmed it.)

RNH is in a horrible goal scoring slump in respect of him being a world #1 draft pick and I'd wonder how many #1 picks ever go twenty games without notching a goal.

Its OK and somewhat normal for an average journeyman player to go this long without and struggle. But for the highest touted player who is playing with huge talent all around him that is basically serviced great opportunities every game from sublime players its troubling. RNH has been stone cold since the shoulder injury. Whats that about? I would say theres some reason for concern.

 

[AK Dandyman]

are projections accurate after 8 games? I'm going to say no...

I think he is responding to people who are over worrying and some even panicking after a couple losses about our young players not performing.

He knows 8 games of stats is not accurate projections and neither is panicking or detracting the young players after a 3pts in a 3.5 days 3 games road trip.

Math is fun.

You know it's only a 48 game season, right?

Might as well make some career predictions while you're at it.

Gagner 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Hall 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Eberle 576 pts in next 8 seasons.
Yaks 496 pts in next 8 seasons.
Nuge and Schutz 416 pts each in next 8 seasons.

Again. He is trying to put it in perspective that people can relax a bit as the young guys are doing okay. He is not saying they will end up with the exact projection points at the end of the season

If we can't use some projection like this, then we also can not use projection like looking at the standing. For examples, we are in 6th place in West right now but we are not allow to have playoff hope because we should not project a little bit after 1/6th of the season gone? And no one in Calgary should worry about their 4pts output and last place standings, because you cannot project that they will be last place at the end of the season?

There was no point in making projections which hold no meaning. Nobody is expecting that pts rate to be sustained. Lets note as well that we have two rookie NHL ringers busting out of the gate with unprecedented enthusiasm and who are largely wildcards to opponents who haven't seen them play.

Next, we know that the Oilers would hold a significant advantage over the first dozen games or so as most of their lineup had been already playing and had their first unit playing alongside each other all season. So yeah, the first unit forwards should be flying out of the gate. As it is they have 5 goals among them, Mostly through the superlative play of J Schultz who has sported a fantastic debut. Two number one draftpicks are snakebit when it comes to scoring goals. 2goals in 8 GP by the pair isn't cutting it. Especially in a stretch where we HAVE to be making hay.

1/6th of the season has gone, the young players have EARNED those offensive stats. Again his post was to let people see from a different perspective that the young players are doing okay.

It's reasonable to predict that some of them will not sustained the scoring pace. That's exactly the point. If one side of the people are saying they are over performing, where other side said they are not doing well at all and starting to over worry or even panicked.

For every argument one can use to hype them up the kids and bring them down, like your comments about them, another perspective can also be presented by saying this....

we have the youngest group of Top 6 forwards in the league having to face experienced NHL offensive superstars and seasoned NHL defensive stalwarts who has 3 or 4 times more experience. If opponents haven't seen our kids played before like you commented, then our kids have also never seen these opponents played before, as well as not having the experience to deal with these elite NHL level of offense, defense and goaltending in their lives ever before.

With the two perspectives, it is reasonable to say that for the first 8 games, they are doing not too bad, which was the point of Fourier's post imo.

 

[Replacement*]

IMO, the San Jose game the other night, the Oilers created more chances 5 vs. 5 in that one game then they did in their previous games combined.

Chalk yesterdays loss up to a variety of things, flights from Phoenix, to San Jose, and back to Colorado's altitude didn't help, but the team is progressing. There are no "easy" games this season. The schedule is brtual for the teams in the west vs. teams in the east, so a game like this is going to happen. Capitlize on some of their chances earlier in the game and it's a different story. What do some of you people have to say to that "awful" Red Wing team that lost to the "lowly" Blue Jackets yesterday??

I would say that the Red Wings have perennially made the playoffs and will find a way to do that this year as well while they typically round into form as an experienced, veteran squad.

Conversely I would say that a club that hasn't made the playoffs in several years, and that has no formulation of how to win, or how to win big games down the stretch, and who had every advantage early in this season are going to be in a lot more trouble and with fans a lot more frustrated through seeing years of futility.

you?

 

[Replacement*]

I think he is responding to people who are over worrying and some even panicking after a couple losses about our young players not performing.

He knows 8 games of stats is not accurate projections and neither is panicking or detracting the young players after a 3pts in a 3.5 days 3 games road trip.



Again. He is trying to put it in perspective that people can relax a bit as the young guys are doing okay. He is not saying they will end up with the exact projection points at the end of the season

If we can't use some projection like this, then we also can not use projection like looking at the standing. For examples, we are in 6th place in West right now but we are not allow to have playoff hope because we should not project a little bit after 1/6th of the season gone? And no one in Calgary should worry about their 4pts output and last place standings, because you cannot project that they will be last place at the end of the season?



1/6th of the season has gone, the young players have EARNED those offensive stats. Again his post was to let people see from a different perspective that the young players are doing okay.

It's reasonable to predict that some of them will not sustained the scoring pace. That's exactly the point. If one side of the people are saying they are over performing, where other side said they are not doing well at all and starting to over worry or even panicked.

For every argument one can use to hype them up the kids and bring them down, like your comments about them, another perspective can also be presented by saying this....

we have the youngest group of Top 6 forwards in the league having to face experienced NHL offensive superstars and seasoned NHL defensive stalwarts who has 3 or 4 times more experience. If opponents haven't seen our kids played before like you commented, then our kids have also never seen these opponents played before, as well as not having the experience to deal with these elite NHL level of offense, defense and goaltending in their lives ever before.

With the two perspectives, it is reasonable to say that for the first 8 games, they are doing not too bad, which was the point of Fourier's post imo.

For perspective Fourier is somebody that would have traded our current top forward, Gagner, 50 times through the years and would never be seen backing Gagner through a 20 game goalless stint by stating: "At least he's getting some scoring chances".

Hey we all have our bias.

I happen to love RNH as a player, pegged him as our pick, and wanted him to be our pick but I am troubled by the problems he has with his shot and release and long slump since the injury last year. That combined with RNH, on accounts not being healthy long enough to train adequately last year. The kid is a scarecrow. Playing against NHL beasts. I'm a bit worried as the kid isn't looking as confident or strong as last year. We could be setting this kid up for a lot of frustration and or furtrer serious injury. Last year RNH seemed to withstand NHL play with his small frame. I don't see him doing that this year. I see him repeatedly bounced off the puck and not even engaging in a lot of puck battles. Possibly due to some fear of injury some tentative play and peripheral play is creeping more into RNH's game.

I'm saying this again from the perspective of being a fan of the player and wanting him to do better.

 

[Insta]

I know this doesn't matter much cause it'll change right away but I noticed Detroit is ahead of the Oilers on the nhl standings page http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=con#&navid=nav-stn-conf and I'm not sure why. What is the tie-break procedure that I'm missing?

 

[CupofOil]

Math is fun.

You know it's only a 48 game season, right?

Might as well make some career predictions while you're at it.

Gagner 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Hall 736 pts in next 8 seasons.
Eberle 576 pts in next 8 seasons.
Yaks 496 pts in next 8 seasons.
Nuge and Schutz 416 pts each in next 8 seasons.

What a ridiculous post, it seems that his point flew right over your head then you mock him with a ridiculous analogy that had nothing to do with his point. Fourier is a poster who provides in depth analysis to back up his points, there's no need to mock him. Give your head a shake.

His point is that the panic about the top 6 scoring deficiency is unwarranted because they are scoring at a good rate despite some of the top 6ers being snake bitten.
Forget projections, look at the raw numbers that they are producing and look at the golden chances that they get game after game and you will see that the top 6 isn't the problem. They are just off on their timing yet they are still producing good numbers so just imagine when they get their timing back.
Look at the bottom 6 and the defensemen not named Justin Schultz if you want to see where the offensive problem is, it's quite unsettling actually.

 

[Hockey Nightmare]

I'm beginning to think they should just sit or waive Whitney or something. The offense he brings doesn't compensate for his poor defensive play. You can't have specific players cost you games all the fricking time and continue to play them. What message does that send to the rest of the team? The fans? What does that tell other teams. It tells them "Oh yay, Ryan Whitney's out on the ice. Time for easy points."

 

[Insta]

Whitney hasn't been real good but the hate is ridiculous. It wasn't even his fault on the GWG, it was Yakupov. Instead of staying with his guy, Nail floats over to the wing and then floats back to the middle much too late and this lets them score an easy goal.

 

[AK Dandyman]

For perspective Fourier is somebody that would have traded our current top forward, Gagner, 50 times through the years and would never be seen backing Gagner through a 20 game goalless stint by stating: "At least he's getting some scoring chances".

Hey we all have our bias.

I happen to love RNH as a player, pegged him as our pick, and wanted him to be our pick but I am troubled by the problems he has with his shot and release and long slump since the injury last year. That combined with RNH, on accounts not being healthy long enough to train adequately last year. The kid is a scarecrow. Playing against NHL beasts. I'm a bit worried as the kid isn't looking as confident or strong as last year. We could be setting this kid up for a lot of frustration and or furtrer serious injury. Last year RNH seemed to withstand NHL play with his small frame. I don't see him doing that this year. I see him repeatedly bounced off the puck and not even engaging in a lot of puck battles. Possibly due to some fear of injury some tentative play and peripheral play is creeping more into RNH's game.

I'm saying this again from the perspective of being a fan of the player and wanting him to do better.

Now that we've changed the topic a bit to individual players on Gagner & RNH, I certainly see your concern about RNH. We can only hope Krueger will pull him back a bit when RNH needs a break from going head to head against the elites. RNH is definitely having trouble with his shot and hope that it's more mental than there's something wrong physically. He also seems to be trying to pick the corner too much at 110% power. May be it would be better if he just take a little less power.

For me, we don't have another 2nd line center better than Gagner on our team at the moment. He has his deficiencies but we can live with his efforts. If we need to move one of our top 6, I much rather move Hemsky and keep Gagner

 

[Shanahanigans]

IMO we have the talent to be a playoff team this year. One issue I see with this team is lack of puck support. If you watch good teams, even ones with not a lot of talent (Phoenix/Nashville last year), they are absolute hounds on the puck. D zone support, offensive zone support, breaking out as a five man unit and not waiting for a stretch pass only to have the defenseman turn it over.

The reason we're doing well on the PP and PK is that the players are clearly working as five parts of a unit on the PP, and four parts of a unit on the PK. As we've seen before, when one player tries to do it alone on the PP, it fails.

If we could transfer that player and puck support play five on five, we would be a pretty good bet to make the playoffs IMO. And by that I mean when we're in the D zone, not cheating the defensive assignment to try to get a quick break, and not leaving a huge gap between forwards and defense. And in the O zone, USING the point men and covering for them when they pinch. I honestly think despite our lack of grit, we could get into the playoffs if we could correct our lack of puck support.

 

[NewBoysClub97*]

imo we have the talent to be a playoff team this year. One issue i see with this team is lack of puck support. If you watch good teams, even ones with not a lot of talent (phoenix/nashville last year), they are absolute hounds on the puck. D zone support, offensive zone support, breaking out as a five man unit and not waiting for a stretch pass only to have the defenseman turn it over.

The reason we're doing well on the pp and pk is that the players are clearly working as five parts of a unit on the pp, and four parts of a unit on the pk. As we've seen before, when one player tries to do it alone on the pp, it fails.

If we could transfer that player and puck support play five on five, we would be a pretty good bet to make the playoffs imo. And by that i mean when we're in the d zone, not cheating the defensive assignment to try to get a quick break, and not leaving a huge gap between forwards and defense. And in the o zone, using the point men and covering for them when they pinch. I honestly think despite our lack of grit, we could get into the playoffs if we could correct our lack of puck support.

this

 

[McDeepika]

One big issue I see is our D doesn't help contribute at all. Seriously, when any dman not named J. Schultz gets the puck, do any of you get excited?

All they do is just dump it back in the corner and ask our forwards to create again. I mean what the hell is wrong with Whitney? I know he is slow but is he allergic to shooting now?

We get basically no rebound goals because our D never manage to get shots through to the net. I know their primary job is to defend, but we need some players that help us score as well. It's not fair to ask our 3 forwards to have to do everything against 5 defenders.

 

[Raab]

I know this doesn't matter much cause it'll change right away but I noticed Detroit is ahead of the Oilers on the nhl standings page http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=con#&navid=nav-stn-conf and I'm not sure why. What is the tie-break procedure that I'm missing?

Well if my understanding of the rules is right. Detroit is actually a -1 in goal differential due to winning a shoot out and not losing one, the exact same as Edmonton's. So they are actually tied in the standings after all the tie breakers. My guess is D comes before E so they put Detroit above Edmonton. Wouldn't worry about it by the end of season they still shouldn't be tied.

 

[McDNicks17]

I know this doesn't matter much cause it'll change right away but I noticed Detroit is ahead of the Oilers on the nhl standings page http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=con#&navid=nav-stn-conf and I'm not sure why. What is the tie-break procedure that I'm missing?

It's actually right on that page you linked.

It looks like we're dead even with the Red Wings even down to the fourth point in the tie-break procedure.