News Article: Oiler Line Up Cult of Hockey

[TFHockey]

I still think it’s best to spread scoring out and have Drai down the middle. It didn’t work last year very well, but neither did stacking Connor and Drai (don’t get me wrong, they put up numbers, but it didn’t win us many more games).

The winger depth looks poor, but I think it’s deeper than last year and should provide more competition. It could be scoring by committee on the wings (assuming we don’t have any Rieders). I’d prefer to see this lineup:

Neal-McD-Kass
Nygard-Drai-Chiasson
Khaira-Nuge-Archibald
Granlund-Haas-Jurco/Currie/Cave

I really think that 3rd line could be good. You trade a 2nd+Pulju for an upgrade mid season to replace whatever disappointment exists.

I guess our 3C issue is a concern, but you can't really see Nuge on the third line. He is too good to be there. Also, does it make sense to have a $6 Million 3C? Might as well deal him if that is where you plan to play him.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I still think it’s best to spread scoring out and have Drai down the middle. It didn’t work last year very well, but neither did stacking Connor and Drai (don’t get me wrong, they put up numbers, but it didn’t win us many more games).

The winger depth looks poor, but I think it’s deeper than last year and should provide more competition. It could be scoring by committee on the wings (assuming we don’t have any Rieders). I’d prefer to see this lineup:

Neal-McD-Kass
Nygard-Drai-Chiasson
Khaira-Nuge-Archibald
Granlund-Haas-Jurco/Currie/Cave

I really think that 3rd line could be good. You trade a 2nd+Pulju for an upgrade mid season to replace whatever disappointment exists.

Trying to run 3 scoring lines and thin out the lineup like that is a guarenteed way for us to not win any games. Drai doesn't hit 60 point, Nuge doesn't hit 40, McDavie might hit 90? Not a single player hits 30 goals with that setup, well McDavid might be the only one hitting 25.

Running a lineup like that makes us incredibly easy to play against. One guy per line worth even defending. Almost guarenteed to lose more games than last year if we win out that much. That and Nuge is guarenteed to walk if you toss him onto a third line with even worse wingers and normal and sewer his minutes and offense.

 

[Mr Positive]

That analysis is very good at showing what our identity at forward is. Holland has made it wide open with lots of competition, but this does expose us as a very flakey team, that may be VERY streaky this season. But, it will likely be a better team than last season, and perhaps better able to deal with injury. The trouble there is that our divisional rivals are better too so the gains may be lost and we may even appear to take a step backwards.

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

I guess our 3C issue is a concern, but you can't really see Nuge on the third line. He is too good to be there. Also, does it make sense to have a $6 Million 3C? Might as well deal him if that is where you plan to play him.

I don't understand this mindset.

You can roll all 3 of the big guns and they'll get their minutes at 5 on 5, the pp and in Nuge's case on the pk yet for some reason people freak out about the label of being on the "3rd" line.

The only legitimate gripe of Nuge being on the 3rd line is it means all of the big 3 are likely lacking adequate wingers.

Seriously I don't understand the bitching about a "6 million dollar 3rd liner" when that "3rd liner" will be top 3 in ice time among forwards yet again.

 

[TFHockey]

I don't understand this mindset.

You can roll all 3 of the big guns and they'll get their minutes at 5 on 5, the pp and in Nuge's case on the pk yet for some reason people freak out about the label of being on the "3rd" line.

The only legitimate gripe of Nuge being on the 3rd line is it means all of the big 3 are likely lacking adequate wingers.

Seriously I don't understand the *****ing about a "6 million dollar 3rd liner" when that "3rd liner" will be top 3 in ice time among forwards yet again.

Well if we have wingers who are cheap and can fit the bill, sure. Right now we don't, and if we are to utilize our cap properly it means that a $6 Million guy has to get more minutes than a 3C. Just my opinion though.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Here is a wild and crazy lineup

Benson - McDavid - Neal
RNH - Draisaitl - Chiasson
Granlund - Haas - Gagner
Archibald - Khaira - Kassian

My realist one though...

Draisaitl - McDavid - Chiasson
Granlund - RNH - Neal
Nygard - Gagner - Kassian
Khaira - Haas - Archibald

 

[oilerbear]

Looking at top 62 LW& RW the median is 1050 even minutes.
Bottom of top 6 wing play is 850 minutes.

The median of starting 3C is 990 min.
50 % would be 495 minutes.

Mcdavid had 1465 EVTOI
RNH had 1265 EVTOI

Draisaitl played 888 with Mcdavid as 1st line winger.
Would like to see him get 50+% (500min ) at 3C and (990-1000) on mcdavid’s wing.

That way he is starting 1st line winger and starting 3C for most games of the season.
Draisaitl played 1483 EVTOI last year.
18:05 per gm
500/82 = 6:06 per gm at 3C
990/82 = 12:04 per gm at 1W

Tippet has stated his desire is to have 3 consistent offensive pairs.
Drai - McDavid - xxx
Neal - RNH - xxx
Granlund - xxx - Archibald

Studying Neal he usually gets 1050 EVTOI per season.
Question is do we treat the RNH pair like a top line.
Teams give their top lines from 790 ev min ( Bergeron - Marchand) to 1240 ev min (Schiefle - Wheeler) together.

Third line wingers see 730:00 to 890:00
Median being 810:00
How much of Draisaitls 500 min at 3C is with
Granlund #60 LW 10 evg
and
Archibald. #51 RW 12 evg
That is 2 - 2 Nd line ( top 62) evg scoring wingers for their position.

Last year
Kassian #37 RW 14 evg got 1063 ev min.
436 with Mcdavid; 193 with RNH.
Chaisson #43 RW 13 evg got 1002 ev min.
315 with RNH; 305 with Mcdavid

It is never realistic to say a winger is 1st line, 2nd line, 3 rd line.
Even the best off pairs may only get 60% of their ev min together.
You just look at what time they get with each center.

Drai - McDavid - xxx 990 ev min 990/1465 = 67.6%
Neal - RNH - xxx 800 ev min 800/1265 = 63.2%
Granlund - xxx - Archibald 620 ev min 620/990 = 62.6%
Makes a lot of sense with pairs based on centers ev min.


That leaves (2x 1465) - 990 = 1940 ev min of mcdavids non Draisaitl time for other wingers.
That leaves (2x 1265) - 800 = 1730 ev min of RNH non Neal time for other wingers.

Since getting and preventing goals wins games
Holland clearly was after top double digit evg scoring wingers and some special team performers to add to our July 1 roster
Traded for Neal 16-17 & 17-18 #15 LW 38 evg same as Hall, Forsberg
UFA Chaisson (2.15M) #43 RW evg, Top 45 fwd 8 ppg goals.
UFA Archibald (1M) 51 RW evg, Top 15 PK foreard
UFA Granlund (1.3M) #60 LW evg
UFA Jurco(.75M) 17-18 top 20 LW 1.02 evg/60
UFA Nygard (.925M) #2 goal scorer SHL.

6 top 6 fwd wingers with evg production or NHLE to add to
Top 6 evg wingers Draisaitl & Kassian.

Lots of Mcd (1940), RNH (1730), Draisaitl (1000), & other 3 C (980) time at top 9 center (5650 min) to be spread between wingers.
Kassian
Chaisson
Neal (250 min)
Granlund
Archibald
Jurco
Nygard
Gagner ( likely to see 3C time)
Khaira 17-18 #59 LW 10 evg same as Pacioretty, steen, burakovsky

Most NHL teams run a DZ FO start heavy 4th line so their top 9 fwds can have 50+% Off zone FO starts.
A thankless demanding role that yields almost no off production during DZ FO starts.

But it provides top 9 an opportunity to outscore the opposition.
Gambardella 15gm 30.00%
Malone 16gm 30.77%
Brodziak 70gm 31.75%
Currie 21gm 37.74%
Gagner 25gm 38.39%, amazing top 30 RW .95 evg/60
Cave 33gm 41.18%
Archibald 45.98%, yet was #51 RW 12 evg
Khaira 60 gm 46.22%
RNH 82gm 47.78%, #32 C 19 evg

Haas was brought in as a DZ, zone transition and off driver thru skating speed.

Khaira - Brodziak - Gagner/ Haas as a 4 th line
With Gagner & Haas getting 3C time.
Khaira & Gagner getting Mcd & RNH wing time.

This is a realistic look at veteran NHL & European pro roster depth in regards to even player usage.

Must remember when I looked at Holland 21 yr history of 35+ gm season debut for prospects in Detroit, he prefers 23 yr old debuts with veteran forward depth.
Prospects Gambardella(25) & Currie (26) showed 14+ evg NHLe last year in AHL.
And
Had brutal DZ role last yr in Edm.

These Prospects had sub 10 evg NHLe
Marody (22)
Benson (21)
Yamamotto (20)
Safin (20)
Mcleod (19)

We got 38 evg from 7.20 forwards seasons of games from 18 forwards. 5.28 evg per forward.

Holland is looking for as high an average of evg from bottom 7.
He grabbed forwards with greater than 14 evg production with a 50+% Off FO start Top 9 min role.
Holland stated the off season signings was about rosters in the future.

This is how real team player usage is.

 

[Aerchon]

It should be pretty interesting. If Draisaitl, McDavid, RNH play like they did last year (which will probably be hard to replicate for Draisaitl and RNH) and we get anything decent from the bottom 2 lines, we should be a bubble team completing for a spot.

We have gaps for sure, but if Neal can turn back into a 20+ scorer playing with RNH, our lines are that much better. I honestly think that Neal will click better with McDavid than RNH and that doesnt leave much for RNH unless Draisaitl plays with him, which is unlikely.

I would still like for us to pick up someone who can play 3C though.

It's more of a plan B for me but I love the idea of Neal and Nuge together. Nuge needs legit shooter threats to keep a goalie guessing/freezing.

XXX McDavid Neal
Chaisson Nuge Draisaitl

Is plan A for me.

XXX McDavid Draisaitl
Chaison RNH Neal

Is plan B. Two offwing shooters for Nuge to choose from is very nice.

 

[LaGu]

Drai McD Neal
Benson RNH Chia/Kass
Granlund Gagner Chia/Kass
Khaira Haas Archi
Marody

Klefbom Larsson
Nurse Bouchard/Benning
Russell Bouchard/Benning
Jones/Lagesson

Persson/Nygard goes to AHL for October/November. Then we'll see. Benson may not stick, Bouchard/Benning could struggle.

Hey, things are a bit bleak in general, but it's one of the first times 4-5 players could be considered border line NHLers but still be in the AHL (Lagesson, Yamamoto, Jones, Bear, Marody)

 

[Faelko]

Reading Gregors article about his interview with Gulutzan sure leads me to believe they are pencilling in Persson in the lineup...although he did also say there may be an adjustment period for him.

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-RNH- Chiasson
Granlund-Khaira-Gagner
Nygaard-Cave-Archibald
Haas
Jurco

Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Persson
Russell-Benning
Jones/Bear rotating in.

That’s my guess anyway.

 

[Captain Controversy]

Reading Gregors article about his interview with Gulutzan sure leads me to believe they are pencilling in Persson in the lineup...although he did also say there may be an adjustment period for him.

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-RNH- Chiasson
Granlund-Khaira-Gagner
Nygaard-Cave-Archibald
Haas
Jurco

Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Persson
Russell-Benning
Jones/Bear rotating in.

That’s my guess anyway.

I like klefbom with Persson.
That's a good way to protect joel