Offseason Thread IV: The Long Part of Summer

[koteka]

I also wonder if someone like Voronkov of Marchenko won’t be traded to a contender for a pretty good return. They’ll have a very low cap hit initially. Like we sign Voronkov to a two year contract at the end of KHL season, burning 1 year. So he has a million dollar cap hit. Then we flip home to the best team in the West for a 1st, a good prospect, maybe more. Voronkov would be more than a rental - the good team would still have his rights when the contract expires.

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[Fro]

Why wouldn't we keep him if we think he'll be good?

 

[koteka]

Why wouldn't we keep him if we think he'll be good?

Because that is the scenario where everybody turns out to be good and our problem is we have too many forwards. (Which I think is rather unlikely.)

 

[koteka]

I'd be more sanguine about it if "let's see what he brings" could be done for everyone. Unfortunately you need sheltered playing time to do that and that requires at least 4th line playing time.

It is 2 years away. I think “let’s see what he brings” is a good approach for a non playoff team.

Here are my 23-24 worries, if you want something to be concerned about:

Between Sillinger, Johnson, 2022 draft picks, 2023 draft picks and guys on the roster, do we look like our center position is on track with a true #1 or at least 2 or 3 guys who can legitimately play a top 6 center role?

Do we have a legit top 20 NHL goalie under contract for a few years? I think the dumbest argument on the board is about goalies. Both are UFA after this season. Neither has played an entire season as a starter and looked good the whole time. One guy has 2 NHL seasons where he missed time each season and just lost a close friend. The other has bad numbers recently outside of a couple of hot streaks. And both could walk away if they want to.

What do the right Ds look like? We have had right D locked down for years, so people might underestimate how hard and important it is to get a legit top pair guy and a legit 2nd line guy and have depth in the system.

Do we have stupid contracts that will hurt this team going forward? Do we throw a bunch of money at a free agent or at some guy on the team and then regret in 25-26 as the young high draft picks come off entry level contracts.

 

[majormajor]

Because that is the scenario where everybody turns out to be good and our problem is we have too many forwards. (Which I think is rather unlikely.)

That's more the scenario that most will be at least okayish. And when I look at guys like Texier, Foudy, Voronkov, and Chinakhov, I see guys that all have good checking ability and thus NHL floors. They won't all become scorers in the NHL, I expect some disappointments, but they'll play somewhere.

It is 2 years away. I think “let’s see what he brings” is a good approach for a non playoff team.

You might have missed my point.

I get it that there are times where you may have to thin the herd, and we can take care of that problem when we get to it. No big deal. The issue is that it would be best to make those decisions about each individual player after seeing what he brings at the NHL level. As is I project we'll be in a position in two years where we have to let several guys go without seeing what they bring, the 4th line is already spoken for.

 

[stevo61]

Lets trade Voronkov and hope we draft a guy that becomes as good of a prospect of Voronkov? Hes progressing well and brings a combo of size and skill that isnt really in our prospect pool, the thought of trading him just to trade him is silly

 

[DarkandStormy]

Johnson
Sillinger
Marchenko
Voronkov
Texier
Chinakhov
Foudy
Bemstrom

All 18-22 and will be looking to claim a top 9 spot within the next 1-2 years. I think even in a rebuild we might need to package up a couple.

I have serious questions about playing Texier, Foudy, and Bemstrom in the top 9 in the next 1-2 years based on results in the NHL so far.

The likelihood of all eight players listed panning out into legitimate top 9 players is pretty low. But I assume you're saying sell a couple while you can before the rest of the league figures it out (a la Milano)?

 

[koteka]

Lets trade Voronkov and hope we draft a guy that becomes as good of a prospect of Voronkov? Hes progressing well and brings a combo of size and skill that isnt really in our prospect pool, the thought of trading him just to trade him is silly

It all comes from the idea we have too many forwards. I think the problem is not something to worry about and it sorts itself out. But if it doesn’t, and we have 15 legit forwards for 13 spots, it is not the end of the world. And then it’s more like let’s trade Voronkov in two years for assets that might be used at the deadline in 25-26 when we are hopefully back to being a playoff quality team.

 

[stevo61]

It all comes from the idea we have too many forwards. I think the problem is not something to worry about and it sorts itself out. But if it doesn’t, and we have 15 legit forwards for 13 spots, it is not the end of the world. And then it’s more like let’s trade Voronkov in two years for assets that might be used at the deadline in 25-26 when we are hopefully back to being a playoff quality team.

Too many forwards but they havent made it yet so you atleast need to know what you have. If Voronkov's game carries over that could be a very valuable 3rd line center.
There is high potential not all of Roslovic-Johnson-Sillinger stick at center and that is where the wait and see comes in. Those 2 likely start on wings anyway so having a prospect thats much furthur along like Voronkov also provides value. We may have a lot of middle to bottom 6 guys but they mostly offer different things and team composition matters atleast in my eyes

Besides with all of that said if you trade Voronkov you are likely looking at him being a smallish add in a bigger deal or getting a 2nd round pick, Id rather find a spot for him

 

[koteka]

You might have missed my point.

I get it that there are times where you may have to thin the herd, and we can take care of that problem when we get to it. No big deal. The issue is that it would be best to make those decisions about each individual player after seeing what he brings at the NHL level. As is I project we'll be in a position in two years where we have to let several guys go without seeing what they bring, the 4th line is already spoken for.

I think after this year, or at least after next, a couple of those guys will either have proved themselves or have been dealt. Or maybe proved themselves and been dealt. So I am not too worried about sheltered playing time for Johnson or the 2022 1st rounder in two years.

I think we will be a bottom 5-7 team for the next two years so there will be plenty of playing time for the currently rostered young guys to develop. Especially in the 2nd half of the season when we aren’t officially tanking, but just evaluating guys like Foudy, Bemstrom, Angle, and Chinakhov. (If our draft position improves as well, so be it.)

 

[koteka]

Besides with all of that said if you trade Voronkov you are likely looking at him being a smallish add in a bigger deal or getting a 2nd round pick, Id rather find a spot for him

In that scenario we would be trading 23 year old Kaprisov level KHL stud Voronkov because we already have hit on our 2021 and 2022 1st round center picks.

Again, the problem of two many good forwards is not something I lose sleep any sleep over.

 

[tunnelvision]

I have serious questions about playing Texier, Foudy, and Bemstrom in the top 9 in the next 1-2 years based on results in the NHL so far.

The likelihood of all eight players listed panning out into legitimate top 9 players is pretty low. But I assume you're saying sell a couple while you can before the rest of the league figures it out (a la Milano)?

It will be a critical year for many forwards. I think out of those three guys we need Texier to step up the most. I'm doubting Bemstrom's ceiling too. At this point I don't know if even a guy like Fix-Wolansky is more likely to claim a spot on middle six wing in near future.

 

[VT]

In that scenario we would be trading 23 year old Kaprisov level KHL stud Voronkov because we already have hit on our 2021 and 2022 1st round center picks.

Again, the problem of two many good forwards is not something I lose sleep any sleep over.

Voronkov - never. It would be not only great but super great stupidity. Besides he plays winger more. I even prefer him over Marchenko.

 

[cslebn]

How do you tell who is good with so many needing to see the ice and prove it?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

How do you tell who is good with so many needing to see the ice and prove it?

I'll do it. I'll decide.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

I'll do it. I'll decide.

we could always have a poll to decide these young men's careers

 

[EDM]

Put then on the ice and see what happens. Personally, I want to see Foudy, Tex, Bemstrum and Peeke play at least 60 games a piece this year. After a full NHL year for each of them, then we can begin discussion of thinning the herd.

 

[DarkandStormy]

A little surprised Palmieri and Tatar are still out there unsigned. Not that the Jackets should pursue either. Just kind of weird.

Has Jarmo weaponized the cap space yet?

 

[majormajor]

A little surprised Palmieri and Tatar are still out there unsigned. Not that the Jackets should pursue either. Just kind of weird.

Has Jarmo weaponized the cap space yet?

Palmieri supposedly already has an agreement with the Islanders. Friedman mentioned that this is a thing that Lou does - he makes a deal but insists it gets kept secret until all players are signed, so nobody knows how much cap space he has left.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

And Sean Kuraly's albatros deal just got more affordable.

 

[tunnelvision]

If I was leading CBJ hockey operations and had to summarize my plans for the team before start of 2022-23 season, my list for the forward situation would be:

- At most sign or trade for a right-handed defensive D this offseason. If you don’t get any good offers though, do nothing. It’s not necessary. We’re not going to be a contender.
- Don’t add another center yet. Wait until a month into the season and see how we’ll do with the kids.
- Tell Lars to build a fast moving, offence first system that will maximize point totals of forwards with one year left (Laine, Domi, Bemstrom etc.) and thus raise their trade value to max. Then at TDL trade some or all of them according to their performance. If they improve their game from last season but not as much as expected, then trade. Otherwise be a little more hesitant to move them.
- It is better to move one of Korpi and Elvis sooner than later. We are going to give up a lot of goals and their stats will very likely go down as will their trade value. Get another ticket for Shane Wright lottery.
- If the team is still competing for a playoff spot at TDL, dont be a buyer. Sell or do nothing.
- At end of 2021-22 see how Texier, Roslovic, Johnson and Sillinger have developed in a year and decide whether to get a veteran C for 2022-23 season or not.

 

[Viqsi]

And Sean Kuraly's albatros deal just got more affordable.

Albatross? Pretty sure he was a RedHawk.

 

[Forepar]

If I was leading CBJ hockey operations and had to summarize my plans for the team before start of 2022-23 season, my list for the forward situation would be:

1- At most sign or trade for a right-handed defensive D this offseason. If you don’t get any good offers though, do nothing. It’s not necessary. We’re not going to be a contender.
2- Don’t add another center yet. Wait until a month into the season and see how we’ll do with the kids.
3- Tell Lars to build a fast moving, offence first system that will maximize point totals of forwards with one year left (Laine, Domi, Bemstrom etc.) and thus raise their trade value to max. Then at TDL trade some or all of them according to their performance. If they improve their game from last season but not as much as expected, then trade. Otherwise be a little more hesitant to move them.
4- It is better to move one of Korpi and Elvis sooner than later. We are going to give up a lot of goals and their stats will very likely go down as will their trade value. Get another ticket for Shane Wright lottery.
5- If the team is still competing for a playoff spot at TDL, dont be a buyer. Sell or do nothing.
6- At end of 2021-22 see how Texier, Roslovic, Johnson and Sillinger have developed in a year and decide whether to get a veteran C for 2022-23 season or not.

#1 - Agree.
#2 - Which "kids" are you referring to? I presume you mean Texier and Roslovic? ...I don't think we will see Sillinger on the CBJ roster to start the year, and we know Johnson will be at TTUN. We won't see them until 22-23 season, if then, and frankly I am good with the C being manned by short-term contracts for competent veteran C's who are more 3C-4C but can play "up" a line or 2 when needed, rather than a mid-level younger C on a longer contract. We will need the roster room for Johnson and Sillinger sooner than later, just not this coming season. And as you note in first bullet pont - we are not going to be a contender. So develop Johnson/Sillinger quickly, let Voracek feed Laine to build trade value (or keep Laine if he's that good). They don't need to add a center at all imo, unless you are trying to compete this year, or unless there is good reason to be in the Eichel sweepstakes (I have my doubts, but if he's committed and healthy, why not?).
#4 - Agree. We aren't contending this year. Pick one. I think Elvis has the higher ceiling, though I like Korpi too. I don't think either one brings that much trade value, so keep Elvis and trade Korpi. Let Elvis continue to grow, but play his backup a LOT - partly to develop the backup, partly to protect Elvis from the regular nightly shelling!
#5 Do nothing - unless the return is off the chart!
#6 - Don't think we will know that much more about Johnson and Sillinger at that point, or even if we know more that they should be playing in the NHL. Johnson will have no pro experience at that point. I think we do the same C-staffing by committee as in #2, above, unless for some unforeseen reason Johnson and Sillinger are blowing the roof off and are undoubtedly ready. We need them to develop properly, not rush it. That doesn't mean hold them back; it just means that should be READY, not maybe ready, before you throw them to the wolves in the Metro.

 

[Forepar]

Albatross? Pretty sure he was a RedHawk.

Nah, he/it was the 2 my buddy made on a par 5 last weekend!!!!