Speculation: Offseason Free Agency thread

[Habs Halifax]

Price dominated vs Leafs after falling behind 3-1 in the series and likewise vs VGK - Habs don’t sniff Cup finals without Price. Had Habs won the Cup - Price would’ve been the unanimous choice for Conne Smythe, not even a close second on the team...that’s the margin of difference

No other Habs player on the current roster or prospect pool, has that ability to takeover a series

Kucherov & Point did nothing after game 1. Habs got beat by TBay’s 3rd line and Vasilevsky

Price was a huge factor but so was your coaching strategy of playing a defensive 1st structure. It's exactly what Therrien did when he was our coach... got players to chip the puck out when in trouble vs what Julien was trying with more puck possession that caused turnovers in our own end.

Price's stats are insane when the team in front of him plays sound D. They go hand and hand. Price gets a lot of credit but not 100%. Same with Danault... it was not all him and the big 4D that we rolled was a huge factor at limiting high danger shots. It all adds up

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Seems to me we had some playoffs experience and learnings in the past two seasons. And we didn't require a former 1st overall pick to get them.

Naw, we needed a worldwide pandemic to re-write the rules.

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

It's simple, really.

Suzuki, Caufield, Kotkaniemi, Romanov are already roster players. We drafted a ton of prospects the last four years. It's time to turn those into actual NHL players to surround our young core and take advantage of the remaining productive years from Price, Petry, Gallagher, Toffoli, Hoffman etc.

Passivity will get us nowhere. We've tried that with our previous core when we waited for Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, Tinordi and McCarron to grow into roles we had envisioned for them. It never happened. Instead, we watched Plekanec and Markov age and deteriorate and the team went off the rails.

Now, I'm not advocating spending future assets on 30-year olds. But if next years' pick can get you a Lindholm, or a Dvorak, players just entering their prime, who will help Suzuki/Caufield for many years, then go for it. I don’t see a reason not to.

Next year’s pick, if it’s Top 5, is worth 2 Dvoraks-plus.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Next year’s pick, if it’s Top 5, is worth 2 Dvoraks-plus.

Weird. I'm not sure our last 2 top-3 picks together are worth Dvorak right now...
You're talking about an excellent 25 years old 2-way C who produces offensively with Arizona right there.

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Weird. I'm not sure our last 2 top-3 picks together are worth Dvorak right now...
You're talking about an excellent 25 years old 2-way C who produces offensively with Arizona right there.

Is he a difference-maker? Gonna help bring home a Cup?

I don’t think so.

Arizona offers Dvorak to a team picking Top 5, that team will say something like “Yeah man! Great start! Now, what else ya got?”

 

[Archijerej]

Next year’s pick, if it’s Top 5, is worth 2 Dvoraks-plus.

Then you make it top-5 protected in a trade.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Is he a difference-maker? Gonna help bring home a Cup?

I don’t think so.

Neither is Kotkaniemi or Galchenyuk trending to become so. Neither is even a guy like Kaapo Kaakoo trending to become one. Or Nico Hishier for that matter.
A top-5 pick is not a guarantee of success. And the 1st round pick in a trade for Dvorak would quite probably be lottery-protected.

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Then you make it top-5 protected in a trade.

Abso-freaking-lutely.

 

[le_sean]

Dvorak would make me real happy. Someone who wins as many faceoffs as Phil but actually contributes offensively.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Dvorak would make me real happy. Someone who wins as many faceoffs as Phil but actually contributes offensively.

... and is only 25.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[Captain Mountain]

Dvorak would make me real happy. Someone who wins as many faceoffs as Phil but actually contributes offensively.

Not for nothing, but you're probably overestimating Dvorak's offensive contribution. Dvorak's 5v5 production doesn't come close to Danault's:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Hell, Kotkaniemi has been more productive 5v5:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Dvorak's production is driven by what he does on the PP (specifically as a shooter on the wing). Which might be useful, but the Habs have Caufield and Hoffman for the PP and they've got a number of wingers they should use there instead.

I like Dvorak and he'd be a nice fit for the Habs. But he's going to be expensive to acquire, he's not going to replace Danault defensively (although he's not a negative there) and I'm not sure how well he'd fit in Montreal relative to the acquisition cost. I'd rather look elsewhere.

 

[le_sean]

Not for nothing, but you're probably overestimating Dvorak's offensive contribution. Dvorak's 5v5 production doesn't come close to Danault's:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Hell, Kotkaniemi has been more productive 5v5:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Dvorak's production is driven by what he does on the PP (specifically as a shooter on the wing). Which might be useful, but the Habs have Caufield and Hoffman for the PP and they've got a number of wingers they should use there instead.

I like Dvorak and he'd be a nice fit for the Habs. But he's going to be expensive to acquire, he's not going to replace Danault defensively (although he's not a negative there) and I'm not sure how well he'd fit in Montreal relative to the acquisition cost. I'd rather look elsewhere.

Give Dvorak great 5 on 5 wingers like Tatar and Gallagher and I’m sure his “expected” stats grow exponentially. Danault was a product of his linemates.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Give Dvorak great 5 on 5 wingers like Tatar and Gallagher and I’m sure his “expected” stats grow exponentially. Danault was a product of his linemates.

Dvorak's expected stats are fine relative to his teammates. And if that were the case, its a better argument to play Gallagher and Kotkaniemi together. My issue is that Dvorak isn't a playmaker and is likely quite costly to acquire. Given how many shoot first guys on the wings the Habs have in the top-9, I'd rather spend more for a playmaker than spend more for a shooter at C.

To me, acquiring Dvorak is a tripling down on the Canadiens of the past few seasons. Basically betting that depth and grit can win a cup. And I believe that the Habs have basically maxed out that strategy. I'd rather take a step back this season than give up something like a 1st and Poehling for Dvorak. Keep options opened, get an idea of you can actually draft and develop for shit. If the kids can take a step forward? great! If not, you've got a good pick and a good draft that you can add to a good young collection of players. Instead of kicking the can down the road.

 

[SakuKoivu11]

Espn radio claims Habs looking for a bottom RD. Maybe another local Jason Demers?

 

[Rockomax]

Espn radio claims Habs looking for a bottom RD. Maybe another local Jason Demers?

Of course we are. When have we not looked for #6-7 defensemen?

 

[Archijerej]

Dvorak's expected stats are fine relative to his teammates. And if that were the case, its a better argument to play Gallagher and Kotkaniemi together. My issue is that Dvorak isn't a playmaker and is likely quite costly to acquire. Given how many shoot first guys on the wings the Habs have in the top-9, I'd rather spend more for a playmaker than spend more for a shooter at C.

To me, acquiring Dvorak is a tripling down on the Canadiens of the past few seasons. Basically betting that depth and grit can win a cup. And I believe that the Habs have basically maxed out that strategy. I'd rather take a step back this season than give up something like a 1st and Poehling for Dvorak. Keep options opened, get an idea of you can actually draft and develop for shit. If the kids can take a step forward? great! If not, you've got a good pick and a good draft that you can add to a good young collection of players. Instead of kicking the can down the road.

Your points about Dvorak's 5-on-5 impact and him not being a playmaker are valid. It's certainly worth investigating how much of a fit he really is.

In terms of value, however, how much more valuable, realistically, our 1st is going to be, compared to Dvorak? I mean, I know we can hit a jackpot, that's always a possibility, but what can we reasonably expect? Collecting picks and prospects just for the sake of it doesn't seem like a strategy.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Your points about Dvorak's 5-on-5 impact and him not being a playmaker are valid. It's certainly worth investigating how much of a fit he really is.

In terms of value, however, how much more valuable, realistically, our 1st is going to be, compared to Dvorak? I mean, I know we can hit a jackpot, that's always a possibility, but what can we reasonably expect? Collecting picks and prospects just for the sake of it doesn't seem like a strategy.

Well, to start with, do you think the Habs are more or less likely to make the playoffs next season? Because even with Dvorak, I wouldn't bet on the Habs being better than Tampa, Florida, Boston or Toronto. And I wouldn't bet on an Atlantic team getting a wildcard spot from the Metropolitan (the reverse seems more likely).

The Eastern Conference is going to be an absolute meat grinder, and the Habs have a number of older players. They could get very worn down. Two-Thirds of the line they heavily relied on to win the previous 3 seasons are gone.

The Habs are complete wildcard going into next season. Maybe the young guys take big steps forward and they become a contender. But I think it more likely that the Habs miss the playoffs and have a top-16 pick, perhaps even a top-10 or lottery pick. And I'd personally rather have the 16th OA pick and Poehling than Dvorak. And I doubt the Coyotes do anything less (or a deal with less upside) since they're flush with 2nds and have a good prospect pool.

 

[Archijerej]

Well, to start with, do you think the Habs are more or less likely to make the playoffs next season? Because even with Dvorak, I wouldn't bet on the Habs being better than Tampa, Florida, Boston or Toronto. And I wouldn't bet on an Atlantic team getting a wildcard spot from the Metropolitan (the reverse seems more likely).

The Eastern Conference is going to be an absolute meat grinder, and the Habs have a number of older players. They could get very worn down. Two-Thirds of the line they heavily relied on to win the previous 3 seasons are gone.

The Habs are complete wildcard going into next season. Maybe the young guys take big steps forward and they become a contender. But I think it more likely that the Habs miss the playoffs and have a top-16 pick, perhaps even a top-10 or lottery pick. And I'd personally rather have the 16th OA pick and Poehling than Dvorak. And I doubt the Coyotes do anything less (or a deal with less upside) since they're flush with 2nds and have a good prospect pool.

Yes, we are likely to miss the playoffs even if we add Dvorak. The question is, by how much?

Adding Dvorak and bolstering the blueline with someone like Vatanen or Shattenkirk would likely keep us in the mix, so we're talking about a mid 1st. In such scenario I prefer Dvorak to Poehling and the 1st.

 

[Redux91]

Espn radio claims Habs looking for a bottom RD. Maybe another local Jason Demers?

Sigh, savard IS a bottom RD ..they should be looking for a TOP RD lol...

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Sigh, savard IS a bottom RD ..they should be looking for a TOP RD lol...

That is obviously very easy to acquire!!

People need to stop freaking out about getting top defender and top center. These pieces are the most valuable in hockey and are almost never available and when they do, they cost you an arm and a leg. The best is developping these assets from within.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yes, we are likely to miss the playoffs even if we add Dvorak. The question is, by how much?

Adding Dvorak and bolstering the blueline with someone like Vatanen or Shattenkirk would likely keep us in the mix, so we're talking about a mid 1st. In such scenario I prefer Dvorak to Poehling and the 1st.

Who knows by how much. It might be a little or it might be a lot. Depends on a lot. But odds are the Habs are probably not a playoff team. And trading a 1st now for a guy like Dvorak is not something a team in that situation should do.

I don't think Vatanen or Shattenkirk would make a major difference. Maybe Shattenkirk. But now you're getting to the point that you're basically betting on a relatively old team with a bunch of guys with money term and some good young guys that you might not even be able to pay when their contracts are up. Betting that team is going to do something special, again, because... grit and depth.

And a mid 1st is not nothing. Caufield was a 16th OA pick in 2019. Suzuki was a 13th OA pick in 2017.

We're at the point (whether by the point in time of the retool or just how much money is tied up in guys earning 27+ money) where you have to show faith in your young guys. Give them a role and and consistency and work through the kinks. You can't just yank them around forever. Either your a team that can draft or develop or not. And if not, something has to change.

 

[frenchcanayan]

Well, to start with, do you think the Habs are more or less likely to make the playoffs next season? Because even with Dvorak, I wouldn't bet on the Habs being better than Tampa, Florida, Boston or Toronto. And I wouldn't bet on an Atlantic team getting a wildcard spot from the Metropolitan (the reverse seems more likely).

The Eastern Conference is going to be an absolute meat grinder, and the Habs have a number of older players. They could get very worn down. Two-Thirds of the line they heavily relied on to win the previous 3 seasons are gone.

The Habs are complete wildcard going into next season. Maybe the young guys take big steps forward and they become a contender. But I think it more likely that the Habs miss the playoffs and have a top-16 pick, perhaps even a top-10 or lottery pick. And I'd personally rather have the 16th OA pick and Poehling than Dvorak. And I doubt the Coyotes do anything less (or a deal with less upside) since they're flush with 2nds and have a good prospect pool.

Yeah being ultra negative and hoping for a 16 overall pick is the way to go.

 

[sampollock]

Sigh, savard IS a bottom RD ..they should be looking for a TOP RD lol...

agreed, this PP is going to suck again

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Yes, we are likely to miss the playoffs even if we add Dvorak. The question is, by how much?

Adding Dvorak and bolstering the blueline with someone like Vatanen or Shattenkirk would likely keep us in the mix, so we're talking about a mid 1st. In such scenario I prefer Dvorak to Poehling and the 1st.

Let's be honest for a second here. In a scenario where we add both a guy like Dvorak and a puck moving D, all that while substracting anything substantial from the lineup, I like our chances as much as pretty much any team in the East except for Tampa. We wouldn't have an ideal squad. The D still would have some question marks. But the depth throughout the lineup would simply by exceptional.


Hoffman - Suzuki - Caufield
Drouin - Kotkaniemi - Anderson
Toffoli - Dvorak - Gallagher

Is the best top-9 this team would have had since I follow the Habs. You can ice those 9 players in 27 different ways based on the opponent and you would still count on 3 potential high-quality lines. Which pretty much no team can do.