Speculation: Official Fantasy Trade Offers/Armchair GM Thread: 2018-20 edition

[GrumpyKelly]

Ya check the main board trade thread I made, he's an option for a 1 yr cap dump if we re-tool.
His caphit is big but only owed $2mil in salary, would be an ideal stopgap and allow Borg to play some sheltered 3C mins. Wallmark to 4C and Acciari moves up the RW side as needed.

I was hoping for a Stepan-Yandle swap earlier this year but then shit hit the fan in AZ and that organization is in free fall. No money or cap so they could be dumping Stepan for a late pick if they don't have to take anything back.

 

[FrolikFan67]

The math on that offer bumps it up to:
2 x 1st (2021 and 2022)
1 x 2nd (2021)
1 x 3rd (2021)

Go to capfriendly offer sheet calculator to double check.

It says that would be the compensation for anything over 8.7per

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I was hoping for a Stepan-Yandle swap earlier this year but then shit hit the fan in AZ and that organization is in free fall. No money or cap so they could be dumping Stepan for a late pick if they don't have to take anything back.

Ya not too many teams willing to take on that caphit despite the low salary paid. OTT and DET can do it and makes sense for them in current state.
We should one of 4-5 teams to fully take advantage of the cap space if Zito feels that's the right move to accumulate more assets for next two drafts.

It says that would be the compensation for anything over 8.7per

Plug in 7 x 7mil in the calculator though, comes up for the 2 x 1st, 2nd, 3rd bracket for me..maybe im doing it wrong?

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Plug in 7 x 7mil in the calculator though, comes up for the 2 x 1st, 2nd, 3rd bracket for me..maybe im doing it wrong?

The AAV for an offer sheet, which determines the compensation required, is derived by dividing the total contract value amount by the lesser of:

• number of years offered, or
• five (5) years

7x7=49 -> 49/5 = 9.8 -> two 1st's + a 2nd + a 3rd

 

[EXTRAS]

Would you guys trade Barkov for Aho 1-for-1?

If not, what would you need as an add to Aho to make the deal?

Anyone out there actually prefer Aho to Barkov?

 

[Pigge]

The price in itself ain't the issue. The issue is that GMs do not ask themselves what they are paying for aka little to none due diligence upon purchase.

I disagree. With $10M in the goalie there isn't room to spend $15M+ on two defensemen and still leave room for the rest of the team to be good. The Sharks are trying out that extreme while the Maple Leafs are trying out the opposite extreme of pumping more than a third of the cap into the top three forwards. Neither of those experiments has indicated that it can work.

 

[Pigge]

Would you guys trade Barkov for Aho 1-for-1?

If not, what would you need as an add to Aho to make the deal?

Anyone out there actually prefer Aho to Barkov?

Why would anyone consider that kind of lateral move? Both players are performing well where they are and they are pretty much the same age and position.

 

[FrolikFan67]

7x7=49 -> 49/5 = 9.8 -> two 1st's + a 2nd + a 3rd

Ah ok, I didn’t realize it only goes up to 5yrs on the calculator, I was just going off the side column for aav

 

[BeezKnees]

Some interesting thoughts from Freidman's podcast this week:
-Says we might be low-key in on Pietrangelo.

Also not necessarily related to us, but
- Mentioned a lot of teams will be calling the new Arizona GM about Stepan because of his contract (aside from his caphit he's owed very little in actual dollars). I agree with @TheImpatientPanther that could be a good fit for us as a 2C stopgap.

-Also mentioned TB is going to be in big cap trouble (like Chicago after 2010) and is going to have to deal some good players. Thinks they're vulnerable to offer sheets

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

I disagree. With $10M in the goalie there isn't room to spend $15M+ on two defensemen and still leave room for the rest of the team to be good. The Sharks are trying out that extreme while the Maple Leafs are trying out the opposite extreme of pumping more than a third of the cap into the top three forwards. Neither of those experiments has indicated that it can work.

Montreal doesn't have a problem with paying Carey Price $10.5mil per because he can drag a team into the playoffs. Therefore, as long as the Price is right, price in itself isn't the issue. The issue is that players aren't playing up to the expectations. The consequent question of that it is what are the expectations? What is the team paying for? This in turn leads to the Calculator-style approach to roster building, how to find players which are most effective in relation to their salary, and not to the question of how to find the cheapest players for each position. Ofc you're not presenting the latter approach but you're applying statistics into it: "the odds of $10mil goalie living up to the expectations is low so we shouldn't never even consider such acquisition", right?

The Maple Laughs approach isn't dumb per say because if all of those three were copies of Matthews. The real issue is that they value different qualities at different weights. I, for one, value e.g. forwards' ability to be skilled offensively and defensively. When you add playmaking or goal scoring skills to that then you have a (potential) elite player at hand. The TML/Dubass approach is different: they value the ability to be exceedingly skillful in one particular skill or/and overloading/over-relying in one particular approach to the game in the hopes that it offsets deficiencies in other areas. The same thing happens with other teams, like with Lumbus: Kekalainen is so infatuated gritty 2way players that he won't take chances with goal scorers and playmakers, and ends up complaining at the end of each season that "we were this close, we just needed a lucky bounce or two..." Nah, you needed some Hoffman in your life.

 

[FrolikFan67]

6yrs @ 7.25per
7yrs @ 6.20per

those would be the mac aav for 6 and 7 years while still keeping the compensation to just a 1st + 2nd + 3rd, correct?

tb would definitely match 6.2per, only one that would have a chance would be 7.25per for 6yrs, and even if they do it’ll hurt them

I don’t think zito in his first year will go after someone’s 21yr old D like that, but still an option that I felt was worth discussing

 

[violaswallet]

It looks like the Matheson trade was actually big for us: it filled a position of need (top 6 winger) while moving out long-term salary. Seems like we have a few options to add missing pieces:

1. Internally: we have good candidates for 6th D, 1-2 winger positions (b/w Saarela, Tippett and Denisenko), and 3-4C(Borg/Saarela, Wallmark and Acciari)

We have two main needs (2C, D upgrade) and one possible need (scoring winger) outside the organization

1. UFA wingers or C options: Hoffman, Dadonov, Haula, Galy, Granlund,...
   1. There is a world where we might be in Pietroangelo given how low the offer from St Louis and how much long-term cap was opened by jettisoning Matheson...we could think of 9.8M dollar offer as adding 5M to his old cap. We would have to jettison someone on D (ideally Stralman/Yandle to AZ perhaps for Stepan). Outside of him, one of the Calgary D or Braun could work, but we would want to move money out this off-season to make up.
2. Arizona: Stepan, Goligoski, and OEL could be had. Stepan is interesting but no great; OEL is more difficult for me to read: I can't figure out what he is and if he adds any defensive value.
   1. Probably could do Stepan+OEL for Yandle, Connolly+futures
3. TBL: See all of @TheImpatientPanther's arguments
4. CBJ: They do have a surplus of D with Murray, Gavrikov, and Savard. I could see us pulling off a trade if need be. Maybe Wennberg could interest Zito?
   
5. NYR: Strome Sr. could be available but risky
6. CHI: Strome Jr. could be available as is Saad.
7. Nashville: Turris could be available but contract is bad and I don't see them compensating us for the contract.
8. STL: Bozak could be an option at C.
9. VGK: Could one of their 5M contracts become available if they sign Pietroangelo? I don't know. I would salivate over Stastny but don't think he'll be free.

The big thing for me is that I could see us adding some long-term deals after clearing out a lot over the past few years. Really it looks like our cap is not terrible compared to other teams although part of me wishes we struck out on Bob as well and signed someone like Lehner...dang, we could have Pietroangelo+Hall.

Maybe Gudbranson could be a guy to look at, but IDK now that Tallon is gone. Guys like Ghost or DeAngelo could make sense for replacing Yandle if we move him...

I think we could get something done actually...

 

[Pigge]

Montreal doesn't have a problem with paying Carey Price $10.5mil per because he can drag a team into the playoffs. Therefore, as long as the Price is right, price in itself isn't the issue. The issue is that players aren't playing up to the expectations. The consequent question of that it is what are the expectations? What is the team paying for? This in turn leads to the Calculator-style approach to roster building, how to find players which are most effective in relation to their salary, and not to the question of how to find the cheapest players for each position. Ofc you're not presenting the latter approach but you're applying statistics into it: "the odds of $10mil goalie living up to the expectations is low so we shouldn't never even consider such acquisition", right?

The Maple Laughs approach isn't dumb per say because if all of those three were copies of Matthews. The real issue is that they value different qualities at different weights. I, for one, value e.g. forwards' ability to be skilled offensively and defensively. When you add playmaking or goal scoring skills to that then you have a (potential) elite player at hand. The TML/Dubass approach is different: they value the ability to be exceedingly skillful in one particular skill or/and overloading/over-relying in one particular approach to the game in the hopes that it offsets deficiencies in other areas. The same thing happens with other teams, like with Lumbus: Kekalainen is so infatuated gritty 2way players that he won't take chances with goal scorers and playmakers, and ends up complaining at the end of each season that "we were this close, we just needed a lucky bounce or two..." Nah, you needed some Hoffman in your life.

While that does not actually touch on the point I was making, it does further support it. Montreal has not made won a playoff series since giving Price that contract, and they certainly can't afford to put a $7M+ guy next to Weber. I won't argue that their bargain bin forwards don't give good value for money, but with only two guys making over $4M that isn't saying much. I certainly agree that it's a sound approach to try to have players who deliver value for money regardless, but you still need a balanced roster to actually optimize the total output.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

6yrs @ 7.25per
7yrs @ 6.20per

those would be the mac aav for 6 and 7 years while still keeping the compensation to just a 1st + 2nd + 3rd, correct?

tb would definitely match 6.2per, only one that would have a chance would be 7.25per for 6yrs, and even if they do it’ll hurt them

I don’t think zito in his first year will go after someone’s 21yr old D like that, but still an option that I felt was worth discussing

Don't see Serg signing that long, he will likely want to hit free agency around 27 years old and up his money per year. 5 years is perfect imo, enough security and money for the now but not locked in too long term.
His deal would end when Ekblad does and you offer one of them to stay depending on how they did in those 5 years.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

While that does not actually touch on the point I was making, it does further support it. Montreal has not made won a playoff series since giving Price that contract, and they certainly can't afford to put a $7M+ guy next to Weber. I won't argue that their bargain bin forwards don't give good value for money, but with only two guys making over $4M that isn't saying much. I certainly agree that it's a sound approach to try to have players who deliver value for money regardless, but you still need a balanced roster to actually optimize the total output.

Montreal haven't had a good roster for ages so I'm not going to jump on to support correlation instead of causation.

Ofc you need a balanced roster but what exactly makes a roster balanced is another key question. To be snarky about it... as long as the Maple Laughs can keep the puck in the o-zone their lineup is balanced. A balanced lineup is one which has a selection of players for every imaginable hockey situation but then again you can only put max six guys on the ice at any given time so system fosters the thinking that you have to find the players that can do it all and pay them the king's ransom. I can almost guarantee that no team will proceed to the finals unless they have the most bang for buck-approach in place, even the Golden Nuggets proceeded to the SC finals because they essentially had three 2nd lines and one 3rd line. Doesn't matter if one guy pops out of the rest as the dominant high roller or the salaries are pretty much even across the board.

 

[FrolikFan67]

Realistically, we won’t do something like offer sheeting serg, although I wish we’d attempt it (within reason).

I also don’t think he’ll trade Yandle. Right now we have Ekblad, weegar (which he needs to sign), Stralman, and Yandle. Leaving two open spots, one of which could be filled internally (stillman, brown, keeper, etc) and most likely one more add. But if they trade Yandle then that’ll be two adds they’ll have to make. Unless it’s a somewhat lateral move where we swap Yandle for another D. But I think he’ll keep him for the pp. that gives us three offensive capable D in ekblad, Weegar, and Yandle. Then we’ll add a buy-low type defensive D to go with Stralman and stillman/brown/keeper/etc. not much in free agency, just boro and Trevor Van riemsdyk, who could both be realistic options. Or they could explore a trade, I’m curious to see who’s available.

 

[violaswallet]

Realistically, we won’t do something like offer sheeting serg, although I wish we’d attempt it (within reason).

I also don’t think he’ll trade Yandle. Right now we have Ekblad, weegar (which he needs to sign), Stralman, and Yandle. Leaving two open spots, one of which could be filled internally (stillman, brown, keeper, etc) and most likely one more add. But if they trade Yandle then that’ll be two adds they’ll have to make. Unless it’s a somewhat lateral move where we swap Yandle for another D. But I think he’ll keep him for the pp. that gives us three offensive capable D in ekblad, Weegar, and Yandle. Then we’ll add a buy-low type defensive D to go with Stralman and stillman/brown/keeper/etc. not much in free agency, just boro and Trevor Van riemsdyk, who could both be realistic options. Or they could explore a trade, I’m curious to see who’s available.

Depends what happens. There are certainly offensive to be had, like Ghost.

I do think Stillman should be counted as as regular: he made the jump and looked okay. I agree the D's available aren't looking great.

 

[Ratsreign]

Realistically, we won’t do something like offer sheeting serg, although I wish we’d attempt it (within reason).

I also don’t think he’ll trade Yandle. Right now we have Ekblad, weegar (which he needs to sign), Stralman, and Yandle. Leaving two open spots, one of which could be filled internally (stillman, brown, keeper, etc) and most likely one more add. But if they trade Yandle then that’ll be two adds they’ll have to make. Unless it’s a somewhat lateral move where we swap Yandle for another D. But I think he’ll keep him for the pp. that gives us three offensive capable D in ekblad, Weegar, and Yandle. Then we’ll add a buy-low type defensive D to go with Stralman and stillman/brown/keeper/etc. not much in free agency, just boro and Trevor Van riemsdyk, who could both be realistic options. Or they could explore a trade, I’m curious to see who’s available.

They should get a solid stay home type d-man to pair w/Yandle. Cover Yandle’s lapses 5v5, and let him produce on the PP. Ek/Weegs, Stralman/Stillman

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

So apparently we are listed as an interested team to buy the rights of Krug

 

[BeezKnees]

So apparently we are listed as an interested team to buy the rights of Krug

Yes, please.

 

[violaswallet]

Don't get it: isn't Krug a Yandle type? Unless we have a trade for Yandle lined up, I don't se it?

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

Don't get it: isn't Krug a Yandle type? Unless we have a trade for Yandle lined up, I don't se it?

Maybe we trade Yandle for those rights lol

 

[batting1k]

Don't get it: isn't Krug a Yandle type? Unless we have a trade for Yandle lined up, I don't se it?

Krug can play defense

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

Makes no sense, dude rejected 6 x 6.5 from Boston, 8 million x what, 6 or 7 years for a better 2 way Yandle? Cant see it from someone who is supposedly good at contract deals.

 

[Gentle Man]

Yandle for Krug and I buy a Zito Jersey