Official Coyotes 2019-20 Roster Discussion Thread #5

[Jakey53]

Cirelli's production is the result of playing with high end players and being sheltered is probably the hottest take I've ever seen. And you could not be more wrong.

I think this, more than anything I've seen you post, tells me that you have no idea what you're talking about. No offense, it's just that you could not possibly be more wrong. Dude got 11 Selkie votes as a f***ing rookie with 58% DZS and you're telling me he's sheltered? There is not a single better defensive center in his age range who is entrusted with as many defensive zone starts and still puts up points, full stop.

In his age range (18-24)
- He was 14th in CF% this year with more DFZ than anyone else above him, and extremely similar number of ES points as guys like Petersson, Konecny, Nylander, and Barkov.
- He had the most SH TOI among his age range and the highest CF and FF (not that it matters much)

For the vast majority of time he's played with Killorn and Joseph. He's spent a little bit of time playing with Stamkos and Kucherov this year, but that's about f***in it. He is not whatsoever having his scoring propped up by linemates.

Cirelli is a damn good player and I'm not debating that, but not for 7 M., not for the Yotes. We need goal scoring not PK, and that is what Cirelli is good at. If you want to give Cirelli 7M. that would be fine by me. I would try and trade for Point, who by the way makes less than 7M. Then the Yotes could slide DVO or Hayton down the line up to do the same job as Cirelli does for Tampa.

 

[Heldig]

Keller
+Raanta
+Dvorak
+2020 ARI 2nd
+2021 ARI 1st

For Eichel

That is a lot to give up and yet it does nothing really to help Buffalo.

 

[rt]

That is a lot to give up and yet it does nothing really to help Buffalo.

No Eichel Trade could help Buffalo.

 

[BUX7PHX]

If we re-sign Hall, plans A, B, and C all include Raanta being dealt, in my opinion. Other moves will have to be made, but I think Raanta is the clear piece to move if Hall re-signs. If he does not re-sign, then we may see different eyes on what our goalie position will look like.

 

[cobra427]

Hall&Eichel would be amazing.

I don't think Hall is signing a UFA deal with Buffalo

 

[RemoAZ]

The only thing that could get us past mediocrity in the next few years imo is Matthews demanding a trade and Hall wanting to go there making a sign and trade the best option for both clubs. I just don't see how resigning Hall with this current roster will allow us to build a winner. Too many other moves will be needed involving players that are part of the problem while Chayka thinks they're part of the solution.

 

[BUX7PHX]

The only thing that could get us past mediocrity in the next few years imo is Matthews demanding a trade and Hall wanting to go there making a sign and trade the best option for both clubs. I just don't see how resigning Hall with this current roster will allow us to build a winner. Too many other moves will be needed involving players that are part of the problem while Chayka thinks they're part of the solution.

If we sign Hall, then 2020-21 may be a slightly bad year from a roster building perspective. Raanta, Stepan, Grabner, Goligoski, Hjalmarsson, and Demers all come off the books after this upcoming season. I think that is something like $30 M tied up in those 6 players. Getting rid of 2 or 3 allows us to sign Hall, but we may be at slim pickings in the 20-21 season. But heading into the 21-22 season, we have:

Hall (I assume a $10 M AAV)

Kessel (last year at $6.8 M AAV)
Schmaltz ($5.85 M AAV)
Dvorak ($4.45 M AAV)
Crouse ($1.53 M AAV - RFA)
Keller ($7.15 M AAV)
Hayton ($.90 M AAV - RFA)

Ekman-Larsson ($8.25 M AAV)
Chychrun ($4.60 M AAV)
Soderstrom ($0.90 M AAV)

Kuemper ($4.50 M AAV)
Hill ($0.90 M AAV)


Garland is an RFA after the 20-21 season, so he will be a priority re-sign. Prior to signing Garland, we would be at about $54 M with 12 players signed. Garland won't be cheap, but that gets us to 13, and then if we have a Jenik and Maccelli both at the NHL level, that would put us at 15 with rookie contracts, so, the team would only have to pick up about 6-7 players with $20 M left to spend, and most of that is on lower line forwards or defensemen. We could grab Jamie Oleksiak and Erik Gubrandson for less than $8 M combined and maybe leave that other spot for Capobianco and a 6/7 call-up type. That doesn't even account for Hino or Fischer re-signing after this year on 2 year bridge deals, which would mean they would also be on very cheap deals to fill out the back half of the roster.

Bottom line is that the 20-21 season should be the only one where we could hypothetically take a step back, in terms of who we can afford to add. We would be subtracting some pieces, but a lot of this would be replacing parts that are just as good with cheaper, younger versions (Hayton in for Stepan, Soderstrom in for Demers, as examples). I think that once we are past the 20-21 season, we have a nice window where a lot of the old contracts are dropping off, which affords the ability to surround the right pieces and make the right decisions on other pieces. Is Schmaltz about capped on his return? Well, paying $5.5 M for a guy who gets you 50 points is actually a good deal for most teams, and not just the Coyotes. Leaves flexibility to make certain things work if we need to shift gears because Hayton and Jenik had "breakout" years or something like that.

 

[hbk]

If we sign Hall, then 2020-21 may be a slightly bad year from a roster building perspective. Raanta, Stepan, Grabner, Goligoski, Hjalmarsson, and Demers all come off the books after this upcoming season. I think that is something like $30 M tied up in those 6 players. Getting rid of 2 or 3 allows us to sign Hall, but we may be at slim pickings in the 20-21 season. But heading into the 21-22 season, we have:

Hall (I assume a $10 M AAV)

Kessel (last year at $6.8 M AAV)
Schmaltz ($5.85 M AAV)
Dvorak ($4.45 M AAV)
Crouse ($1.53 M AAV - RFA)
Keller ($7.15 M AAV)
Hayton ($.90 M AAV - RFA)

Ekman-Larsson ($8.25 M AAV)
Chychrun ($4.60 M AAV)
Soderstrom ($0.90 M AAV)

Kuemper ($4.50 M AAV)
Hill ($0.90 M AAV)


Garland is an RFA after the 20-21 season, so he will be a priority re-sign. Prior to signing Garland, we would be at about $54 M with 12 players signed. Garland won't be cheap, but that gets us to 13, and then if we have a Jenik and Maccelli both at the NHL level, that would put us at 15 with rookie contracts, so, the team would only have to pick up about 6-7 players with $20 M left to spend, and most of that is on lower line forwards or defensemen. We could grab Jamie Oleksiak and Erik Gubrandson for less than $8 M combined and maybe leave that other spot for Capobianco and a 6/7 call-up type. That doesn't even account for Hino or Fischer re-signing after this year on 2 year bridge deals, which would mean they would also be on very cheap deals to fill out the back half of the roster.

Bottom line is that the 20-21 season should be the only one where we could hypothetically take a step back, in terms of who we can afford to add. We would be subtracting some pieces, but a lot of this would be replacing parts that are just as good with cheaper, younger versions (Hayton in for Stepan, Soderstrom in for Demers, as examples). I think that once we are past the 20-21 season, we have a nice window where a lot of the old contracts are dropping off, which affords the ability to surround the right pieces and make the right decisions on other pieces. Is Schmaltz about capped on his return? Well, paying $5.5 M for a guy who gets you 50 points is actually a good deal for most teams, and not just the Coyotes. Leaves flexibility to make certain things work if we need to shift gears because Hayton and Jenik had "breakout" years or something like that.

We do get to park Hossa’s $5M at start of season as well. Delaying actual signing of the deal (which allows Hall to skip training camp) until then helps dramatically.

 

[Canis Latrans]

If we sign Hall, then 2020-21 may be a slightly bad year from a roster building perspective. Raanta, Stepan, Grabner, Goligoski, Hjalmarsson, and Demers all come off the books after this upcoming season. I think that is something like $30 M tied up in those 6 players. Getting rid of 2 or 3 allows us to sign Hall, but we may be at slim pickings in the 20-21 season. But heading into the 21-22 season, we have:

Hall (I assume a $10 M AAV)

Kessel (last year at $6.8 M AAV)
Schmaltz ($5.85 M AAV)
Dvorak ($4.45 M AAV)
Crouse ($1.53 M AAV - RFA)
Keller ($7.15 M AAV)
Hayton ($.90 M AAV - RFA)

Ekman-Larsson ($8.25 M AAV)
Chychrun ($4.60 M AAV)
Soderstrom ($0.90 M AAV)

Kuemper ($4.50 M AAV)
Hill ($0.90 M AAV)


Garland is an RFA after the 20-21 season, so he will be a priority re-sign. Prior to signing Garland, we would be at about $54 M with 12 players signed. Garland won't be cheap, but that gets us to 13, and then if we have a Jenik and Maccelli both at the NHL level, that would put us at 15 with rookie contracts, so, the team would only have to pick up about 6-7 players with $20 M left to spend, and most of that is on lower line forwards or defensemen. We could grab Jamie Oleksiak and Erik Gubrandson for less than $8 M combined and maybe leave that other spot for Capobianco and a 6/7 call-up type. That doesn't even account for Hino or Fischer re-signing after this year on 2 year bridge deals, which would mean they would also be on very cheap deals to fill out the back half of the roster.

Bottom line is that the 20-21 season should be the only one where we could hypothetically take a step back, in terms of who we can afford to add. We would be subtracting some pieces, but a lot of this would be replacing parts that are just as good with cheaper, younger versions (Hayton in for Stepan, Soderstrom in for Demers, as examples). I think that once we are past the 20-21 season, we have a nice window where a lot of the old contracts are dropping off, which affords the ability to surround the right pieces and make the right decisions on other pieces. Is Schmaltz about capped on his return? Well, paying $5.5 M for a guy who gets you 50 points is actually a good deal for most teams, and not just the Coyotes. Leaves flexibility to make certain things work if we need to shift gears because Hayton and Jenik had "breakout" years or something like that.

That's essentially how I look at it too. Tight fit for this upcoming season, but thereafter oodles of flexibility to complement what should be a more competitive core. If we don't get to resign Hall, there's really no issue with the cap next season, but the team needs him, so whatever moves need to be made to fit him in under the tight cap next season need to be done.

 

[BUX7PHX]

We do get to park Hossa’s $5M at start of season as well. Delaying actual signing of the deal (which allows Hall to skip training camp) until then helps dramatically.

Yeah, I don't think we are in a position to get rid of Hossa's deal yet. I always am surprised when I hear people talk about dumping that salary - we have seen Chayka maneuver the cap, just like last year, by putting some 2 ways down to clear enough salary to put Hossa on LTIR. That allows us some flexibility in adding to the team that other teams don't have.

I could even see the plan coming along where because of how long this season will take to end, and then trying to set something up for next year may result in some older veteran players not signing until far closer to camp and/or final roster cutdown dates. Could easily see something where we make some moves early, and then sit tight. Once the rosters need to be set, that's when we dump Hossa to LTIR, and maybe this is the year that we add a Marleau-type of player right as the season commences.

 

[rt]

To OTT:
M. Hossa
V. Hinostroza
J. Oesterle

To ARI:
M. Carcone

 

[BUX7PHX]

To OTT:
M. Hossa
V. Hinostroza
J. Oesterle

To ARI:
M. Carcone

If you run it through capfriendly's GM mode, I am not certain it makes complete sense to trade away Hossa's deal.

Since I have a feeling that Soderstrom will wind up making the NHL roster, what about

To COL:
J. Demers
V. Hinostroza

To ARI:
S. Bowers

 

[rt]

If you run it through capfriendly's GM mode, I am not certain it makes complete sense to trade away Hossa's deal.

Since I have a feeling that Soderstrom will wind up making the NHL roster, what about

To COL:
J. Demers
V. Hinostroza

To ARI:
S. Bowers

I don't think there's a chance in heck you'd get a prospect of that caliber. I think if we asked for a 4th rounder, that would be more fair from a pure value perspective.

But I don't think Colorado (a good team) would have much interest in the bottom line/pairing players from Arizona (a bad team). You know?

 

[BUX7PHX]

I don't think there's a chance in heck you'd get a prospect of that caliber. I think if we asked for a 4th rounder, that would be more fair from a pure value perspective.

But I don't think Colorado (a good team) would have much interest in the bottom line/pairing players from Arizona (a bad team). You know?

I thought Bowers was not as highly regarded and that Kaut had kind of overtaken him there. MacKinnon and Jost headline. Kadri is still there, but maybe he moves on. Maybe I am just hopeful that they don't quite see him in their plans, and he may be dealable.

Colorado has a few young defensemen signed and coming up on the left side, but could use something else on the right side. I assume Zadorov returns. They have Erik Johnson and Makar on the right side, but there was talk about a stop-gap solution until Conor Timmins is ready. If you take that risk, why not do it on someone in the final year of their deal, and if it isn't clear that Timmins isn't ready, then you have a fairly cheap signing possibility, assuming Demers plays well. Hinostroza is just a right hand for them - I think they only have 3 righties on their forwards. I assume Jost and Burakovsky are the only RFAs that are definitely re-signing there.

Probably off on value, but I am assuming a little higher value on Demers, and under-valuing Bowers.

 

[rt]

Pretend we win Lafreniere and Hall decides he wants to stay with the Coyotes:

To OTT
Stepan
Raanta
Hossa

To ARI
Carcone
__
To STL
Keller

To ARI
Schenn
__
To MIN
Schmaltz

To ARI
Dumba
__
To MTL
Goligoski

To ARI
MTL ‘20 3rd
__
Hall > Keller
Lafreniere > Schmaltz
B. Schenn > Stepan
Dumba > Goligoski
Hill+3rd = Raanta

 

[MayDayMayDay]

Win Lafreniere.

AZ <> MTL
Kessel & Goligoski for Domi & 2020 3rd

AZ <> BUF

Stepan, Raanta & Hinostroza for Ristolainen & Girgensons

Re-sign Hall.

 

[Mosby]

How much cash is that going to Ottawa? If I'm them I just take that money and buy one good player in FA, assuming he wants to sign in Ottawa.

 

[rt]

How much cash is that going to Ottawa? If I'm them I just take that money and buy one good player in FA, assuming he wants to sign in Ottawa.

Cash? Stepan is roughly 2m after bonus. Same for Raanta. Hossa is roughly 0m. So I guess about 4m for two players that could play a huge role in making them less of a laughing stock. Tremendous value for them. Really, really good value. Big upgrade.

 

[Mosby]

Fair enough. I think it may be asking a lot for us to pay the entire bonuses of both players. Basically will ownership eat 5 mil to make these two players go away? And then pay their replacements.

 

[rt]

Fair enough. I think it may be asking a lot for us to pay the entire bonuses of both players. Basically will ownership eat 5 mil to make these two players go away? And then pay their replacements.

Does he really “sure as shit want to win”? Money where the mouth is, I guess. I’d be fine with firing the GM over it.

 

[Kaibur]

Is it true that Hall might want more of a back loaded or middle loaded deal because of escrow rules? If so, that might make eating Stepan and Raanta's bonus money in the near term more palatable.

 

[rt]

Is it true that Hall might want more of a back loaded or middle loaded deal because of escrow rules? If so, that might make eating Stepan and Raanta's bonus money in the near term more palatable.

Great point.

1. 6m
2. 6m
3. 12m
4. 12m
5. 12m
6. 12m
7. 8m
8. 6m
=8yrs, 74mil, 9.25aav

Might make doing Stepan+Raanta+Hossa to Ottawa for Carcone on bonus day a little less awful. Yeah, we eat 5m in real dollars but we ditch 10.75m in cap (not even counting nag Hossa). But if Hall’s aav is 9.25 and actual cash comp is only 6m in the first two years, that might be a decent offset.

Trade Keller to his hometown blues for Brayden Schenn (just before his NTC kicks in) and you’ve essentially upgraded Keller to Hall and Stepan to Schenn. And it cost you Raanta for the trouble.

 

[Grimes]

Soderstrom joining the team for the playoffs.

 

[rt]

Would the age difference between Keller and Brayden Schenn create enough of a value-gap that we could somehow get St.Louis to accept Fischer and Kyrou as part of the deal? Keller+Fischer for Schenn+Kyrou?

 

[Grimes]

Would the age difference between Keller and Brayden Schenn create enough of a value-gap that we could somehow get St.Louis to accept Fischer and Kyrou as part of the deal? Keller+Fischer for Schenn+Kyrou?

I still hate this hahaha. I'll happily eat crow if Keller doesn't get back to his rookie pace in two seasons though.

Edit: I went and looked at Schenn's stats over the years. That 70 point season sure looks like an outlier to me. Although he is still good for that 58-65 point total depending on games played. What does this production look like next season when he is 29? But I ultimately think he has a lot of the same qualities as the centers we already have, two-wayish who can pot goals and assists but doesn't drive the play and needs complimentary wingers. However, it took Schenn four seasons to break the 50 point mark and never looked back. Dvo would have cracked 40 points this season. Really hoping next year is Dvo's try breakout to be a 1b/2a center for this team.