Speculation: Official Coyotes 2018-19 Season Predictions Thread.
- Thread starter TheLegend
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- Apr 12, 2017
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OOOOOOOOkay so last season I predicted mid to high 70's point total and they ended up at 70. I was only off by 5-9 points so that's not too bad 
Though I was wrong about wrong about how bad they would start but I think that was for reasons no one could have predicted.
Anywho, on to this season. I do think the roster is better. I also think it's overrated in the degree to which this is a good roster. There are too many what-ifs and holes. Sometimes it was said last season's roster was the best on paper the team had since at least the playoff years and some said even before that. And look how that worked out! That also means it would follow that they could have been better had things gone right than a team that had over a hundred points or a team that went to the WCF. I think people got enamored with the increased offensive talent from young players and did not recognize just how elite those teams were on the back end and in net. Raanta lived up to the second part in 3/4ths of the season but that still wasn't enough.
(yes some of this is my airing of grievances)
Okay now really on to this season.
I do not think Keller will have a major set back, he may not take a big step forward but he's already gone through prolonged slumps and come out as good or better. Sophomore slumps aren't caused by other teams focusing on players or whatever. Teams learn about new players fast in the age of the internet and video scouting. Players play each other frequently especially in division and talk. You can bet your ass Nico Hischier remembered when Keller robbed him and scored in October. It just doesn't take till next October for that to get out, sorry. If Keller stumbles it will be for other reasons.
I was pretty high on a solid season (but probably not at center long term) from Galchenyuk and do not know what to make of his injury. I suspect it will take some time for him to get into a groove even when he is healthy. I'd be surprised if he topped 40 points and I think they were counting on more.
Stepan is super consistent and will yet again put up 55 points and frustrate everyone weekly for various reasons.
Dvorak's injury also has me concerned we'll be left waiting for another season or at least several months to see him take the next step. I do hope I'm wrong about this.
Hinostroza is going to be the big non-rookie surprise of the season. He looked super slick on the PP with Keller. I do not think he'll be super effective 5 on 5 but he can put up 40 points or so in limited 5 on 5 deployment + PP time even if our PP is weak like usual. It seems they liked him in the mix for his skillset so he's going to get ample opportunity there.
I believe the key to the season though is not Raanta (beyond a certain point of performance anyway) and not the center situation and what not. It's the team defense. Every single year since 2010 even under Tippett this team has struggled with any sense of cohesion out of the gate on the back end. Last year was the worst example of it but was overshadowed by what happened in net. The Coyotes can get their GF number up pretty easily with a few swaps between Galchenyuk and Domi, Stepan being less terrible early, and even more offense on the back end with the combination of Oesterle/KConn seeing minutes over Schenn. I also think Granlund and the third line will provide slightly more scoring this season along with Fischer's apparent improvement for wherever he ends up eventually.
You can be a halfway not awful team without scoring 250 goals. But you sure as shit can't give up 250 and that's what the Coyotes have done 2 years running (and the year before that was 244). We can't have 2 months of Demers passing to the other team, Hjalmarsson's brains getting rescrambled, OEL forgetting how to shoot again, and Lyubushkin playing more than 30 games cause no one else will clear the f***ing crease on occasion.
If the Coyotes are going to be a good team, meaning above average team that is pretty solidly in the 8-6 range for playoff spots that kind of crap cannot happen again. I think it's going to happen again. Not to the same extent, it won't be as bad or last as long, but they are going to get off to a .500 or slightly below that start and be somewhat behind the 8 ball again. They'll get back in the race a bit midway through but ultimately fall short. What they will do though is win a lot more regulation games.
81 points, 37-38-7
I do think though that if I'm wrong they will beat my prediction not fall far short of it. I would not have said that the last 2 years. IMO what a good Coyotes team looks like this season is a lot like the Blues of last year. Just enough scoring and defense but frustrating because you think they still have room to be better then that.
Though I was wrong about wrong about how bad they would start but I think that was for reasons no one could have predicted.Anywho, on to this season. I do think the roster is better. I also think it's overrated in the degree to which this is a good roster. There are too many what-ifs and holes. Sometimes it was said last season's roster was the best on paper the team had since at least the playoff years and some said even before that. And look how that worked out! That also means it would follow that they could have been better had things gone right than a team that had over a hundred points or a team that went to the WCF. I think people got enamored with the increased offensive talent from young players and did not recognize just how elite those teams were on the back end and in net. Raanta lived up to the second part in 3/4ths of the season but that still wasn't enough.
(yes some of this is my airing of grievances)
Okay now really on to this season.
I do not think Keller will have a major set back, he may not take a big step forward but he's already gone through prolonged slumps and come out as good or better. Sophomore slumps aren't caused by other teams focusing on players or whatever. Teams learn about new players fast in the age of the internet and video scouting. Players play each other frequently especially in division and talk. You can bet your ass Nico Hischier remembered when Keller robbed him and scored in October. It just doesn't take till next October for that to get out, sorry. If Keller stumbles it will be for other reasons.
I was pretty high on a solid season (but probably not at center long term) from Galchenyuk and do not know what to make of his injury. I suspect it will take some time for him to get into a groove even when he is healthy. I'd be surprised if he topped 40 points and I think they were counting on more.
Stepan is super consistent and will yet again put up 55 points and frustrate everyone weekly for various reasons.
Dvorak's injury also has me concerned we'll be left waiting for another season or at least several months to see him take the next step. I do hope I'm wrong about this.
Hinostroza is going to be the big non-rookie surprise of the season. He looked super slick on the PP with Keller. I do not think he'll be super effective 5 on 5 but he can put up 40 points or so in limited 5 on 5 deployment + PP time even if our PP is weak like usual. It seems they liked him in the mix for his skillset so he's going to get ample opportunity there.
I believe the key to the season though is not Raanta (beyond a certain point of performance anyway) and not the center situation and what not. It's the team defense. Every single year since 2010 even under Tippett this team has struggled with any sense of cohesion out of the gate on the back end. Last year was the worst example of it but was overshadowed by what happened in net. The Coyotes can get their GF number up pretty easily with a few swaps between Galchenyuk and Domi, Stepan being less terrible early, and even more offense on the back end with the combination of Oesterle/KConn seeing minutes over Schenn. I also think Granlund and the third line will provide slightly more scoring this season along with Fischer's apparent improvement for wherever he ends up eventually.
You can be a halfway not awful team without scoring 250 goals. But you sure as shit can't give up 250 and that's what the Coyotes have done 2 years running (and the year before that was 244). We can't have 2 months of Demers passing to the other team, Hjalmarsson's brains getting rescrambled, OEL forgetting how to shoot again, and Lyubushkin playing more than 30 games cause no one else will clear the f***ing crease on occasion.
If the Coyotes are going to be a good team, meaning above average team that is pretty solidly in the 8-6 range for playoff spots that kind of crap cannot happen again. I think it's going to happen again. Not to the same extent, it won't be as bad or last as long, but they are going to get off to a .500 or slightly below that start and be somewhat behind the 8 ball again. They'll get back in the race a bit midway through but ultimately fall short. What they will do though is win a lot more regulation games.
81 points, 37-38-7
I do think though that if I'm wrong they will beat my prediction not fall far short of it. I would not have said that the last 2 years. IMO what a good Coyotes team looks like this season is a lot like the Blues of last year. Just enough scoring and defense but frustrating because you think they still have room to be better then that.
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Crowd-source point prediction, average of everyone who posted a point total in this thread (anyone who said just barely miss I called 92 points)
84.6 points
84.6 points
CC96
Serious Offender
Currently at a dead even .500 points percentage for a pace of 82 points. The crowd is pretty close.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
We’re on 82pt pace rather than 83pt pace. Why am I such a homer?!?!?
Been very close on these projections:
| Month | Projected | Actual | B/(W) | ||||||
| W | L | OTL | W | L | OTL | Points | |||
| October | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3 | ||
| November | 6 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | (1) | ||
| December | 7 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 | (3) | ||
| January | 7 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | (1) | ||
| February | 8 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | ||
| March | 9 | 6 | |||||||
| April | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| TOTAL | 43 | 34 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 5 | (2) | ||
| Predicted Total | 43 | 34 | 5 | ||||||
| Predicted Points | 91 |
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rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
TheLegend
Megathread Gadfly
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Brassard isn’t that good. I only harp on him because it’s guaranteed we could have had be for one of our thirds. There are other guysbid have happily paid more for. I can’t say with such certainty that we could have had them.
Let's see how I did...
- Dylan Strome sticks in the NHL. Puts up 35-40, mostly assists. He's got 38 and will probably get more so I lowballed him. Didn't think it would take him getting traded though.
-Derek Stepan breaks 60 points but not by much. 32 in 64 and he won't play many more regular season games. Swing and a miss!
-Antti Raanta plays 60 games, is a Vezina nominee, but doesn't win it. Nope.
-Alex Galchenyuk comes back in game 10. Ends up scoring 25 goals. 15 in 54. Could happen.
-Niklas Hjalmarsson scores a hat trick. He scores 0 goals otherwise. Could still happen.
-Darcy Kuemper actually manages to stay a little above .900 SV% but posts a ****ty W-L record. Nope.
-Nick Cousins scores 10 goals. 6 goals so far, could still happen.
-Jakob Chychrun returns in game 20, causing intense competition for playing time. One of him, Connauton, or Lyubushkin gets traded. Nope.
-Kyle Capobianco gets around 10 games in the NHL and impresses. He is ready to fight for a full time roster spot in 2019-20. He got a whopping 2 games.
-Brad Richardson gets scratched for 40 games. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA nope.
-We finish with 92 points, taking the second wild card spot, but it crosses us over into the Central bracket. Nashville destroys us in the first round.We'd have to get 24 of 36 points remaining available to get 92. Could happen.
-Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a Norris finalist but it ends up going to one of Brent Burns or Erik Karlsson. Unlikely OEL is a Norris finalist.
-Liam Kirk scores 70 in Peterborough. 38 in 55 games. Unlikely.
-Barrett Hayton scores 100 in Sault Ste. Marie. 60 in 37 games. Unlikely.
-The Kings miss the playoffs. It's happening!!!!!!
-Eugene Melnyk is launched into the sun. Depending on how literal I was with this, it could happen.
- Dylan Strome sticks in the NHL. Puts up 35-40, mostly assists. He's got 38 and will probably get more so I lowballed him. Didn't think it would take him getting traded though.
-Derek Stepan breaks 60 points but not by much. 32 in 64 and he won't play many more regular season games. Swing and a miss!
-Antti Raanta plays 60 games, is a Vezina nominee, but doesn't win it. Nope.
-Alex Galchenyuk comes back in game 10. Ends up scoring 25 goals. 15 in 54. Could happen.
-Niklas Hjalmarsson scores a hat trick. He scores 0 goals otherwise. Could still happen.
-Darcy Kuemper actually manages to stay a little above .900 SV% but posts a ****ty W-L record. Nope.
-Nick Cousins scores 10 goals. 6 goals so far, could still happen.
-Jakob Chychrun returns in game 20, causing intense competition for playing time. One of him, Connauton, or Lyubushkin gets traded. Nope.
-Kyle Capobianco gets around 10 games in the NHL and impresses. He is ready to fight for a full time roster spot in 2019-20. He got a whopping 2 games.
-Brad Richardson gets scratched for 40 games. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA nope.
-We finish with 92 points, taking the second wild card spot, but it crosses us over into the Central bracket. Nashville destroys us in the first round.We'd have to get 24 of 36 points remaining available to get 92. Could happen.
-Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a Norris finalist but it ends up going to one of Brent Burns or Erik Karlsson. Unlikely OEL is a Norris finalist.
-Liam Kirk scores 70 in Peterborough. 38 in 55 games. Unlikely.
-Barrett Hayton scores 100 in Sault Ste. Marie. 60 in 37 games. Unlikely.
-The Kings miss the playoffs. It's happening!!!!!!
-Eugene Melnyk is launched into the sun. Depending on how literal I was with this, it could happen.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
I was close on the first part of this prediction. Let’s hope I’m right about the lottery. Haha.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Boooooo this man! Boooooo!Miss the playoffs by three points.
Lose every draft lottery.
Pick mid-first-round... assuming we keep the pick.
moosemeister
5,000 strong
RABBIT
Years of my life w you f*cks only to get relocated
- Oct 26, 2006
- 18,442
- 11,064
Miss the playoffs by three points.
Lose every draft lottery.
Pick mid-first-round... assuming we keep the pick.
Holy shit.
Maybe I need to go buy some lottery tickets... anyone else want some?
YotesFan47
Registered User
That was super close, if they had two more wins in regulation instead of OT losses and I would have been spot on. Now lets see if we draft Newhook (& Caufield).
In late November I wrote in one of those threads that we would finish DEAD LAST after Schmaltz injury.... I was certain of it. 100%.
I am generally wrong, and boy did I keep that tradition going.
Well done Coyotes on a smashing year.
I am generally wrong, and boy did I keep that tradition going.
Well done Coyotes on a smashing year.
CC96
Serious Offender
- Jan 3, 2012
- 14,465
- 12,261
Did you have County House in the Derby too
It's funny how a sport that almost no one cares about for 364 days gets 5 hrs of prime network coverage for a 2 minute race.
)
