Ol Bill here made a twitter thread trying to downplay how big it would be to get Hughes and comparing us to Edmonton...
Hextall is no longer in charge and therefore anyone picked in the top-5 would most likely play for the Flyers that season.
Ol Bill here made a twitter thread trying to downplay how big it would be to get Hughes and comparing us to Edmonton... which is ridiculous to anyone who looks at this roster or prospect pool
Ol Bill here made a twitter thread trying to downplay how big it would be to get Hughes and comparing us to Edmonton... which is ridiculous to anyone who looks at this roster or prospect pool
Hextall is no longer in charge and therefore anyone picked in the top-5 would most likely play for the Flyers that season.
It helps that almost any of the projected top-10 picks other than Hughes appear to have NHL bodies.
Tanking doesn’t guarantee a cup but you need special players to win one. Every now and again a team without a hall of fame level talent wins it like Carolina but it isn’t very often. The most reproducible way to acquire that talent is at the top of the draft. Every now and again a guy will be found later in the draft but that is rare. There are now 31 teams with scouts everywhere. Teams aren’t pulling a Lidstrom out of the 3rd round anymore. Just look at Elias Pettersson. 20 years ago he probably taken in the later first or even 2nd round but now goes top 5. It’s harder for guys to slip through the cracks with more scouts now.I mean, he isn't entirely wrong. I've said that for years tanking is not the way to build your way to the Cup finals. It can't just be high draft picks otherwise teams like Edmonton, NYI, AZ, and other perennial cellar dwellers would be dynasties. You need vets. You need youth. You need speed. You need grit. You need offense. You need defense. You need a goalie. You need luck. You need to stay healthy. You need a guy you didn't expect to come out of nowhere and make an impact. At this point, I am fully on for the "Lose for Hughes" plan because this season is a complete and total disaster, but it does not guarantee you anything other than getting a high draft pick. They need to make some changes and that might mean dealing someone we don't want to or signing a guy or two that is (GASP!) pushing 30. This team has a good core and I do think adding Hughes will help, but just getting high draft picks is meaningless if you can't put together the rest of the team.
Meltzer has always been anti tank but anti tanks folks always point out the failures and never mention that the teams that actually win the cup have been built with pieces from the very top of the draft. Pittsburgh: Malkin, Crosby. Washington: Ovechkin. Chicago: Kane. LA: Doughty. All guys taken in the top 2 of the draft by those teams. All in the top 2 or 3 at their position. All likely Hall of Famers. None of those teams win without those guys. That’s 9 out of the last 10 cup winners.
What about the 10th, Boston. Ok. So all the Flyers have to do is find a hall of fame defender in free agency and a near hall of fame goalie as an old free agent out of Europe who both got better as they aged into their 30’s as opposed to declining like the vast majority of players. Seems reproducible.
They should forsure sell and tank for Hughes
Finishing last gives you an 18.5% chance of getting Hughes at #1, and only a 49.4% chance of being in the top 3.
Tankathon | 2019 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator
Ol Bill here made a twitter thread trying to downplay how big it would be to get Hughes and comparing us to Edmonton... which is ridiculous to anyone who looks at this roster or prospect pool
Finishing last gives you an 18.5% chance of getting Hughes at #1, and only a 49.4% chance of being in the top 3.
Tankathon | 2019 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator
Those team tanked not just for one season. They were bad for like an entire generation and lucked into elite players eventually after also building up the roster with high picks.Meltzer has always been anti tank but anti tanks folks always point out the failures and never mention that the teams that actually win the cup have been built with pieces from the very top of the draft. Pittsburgh: Malkin, Crosby. Washington: Ovechkin. Chicago: Kane. LA: Doughty. All guys taken in the top 2 of the draft by those teams. All in the top 2 or 3 at their position. All likely Hall of Famers. None of those teams win without those guys. That’s 9 out of the last 10 cup winners.
What about the 10th, Boston. Ok. So all the Flyers have to do is find a hall of fame defender in free agency and a near hall of fame goalie as an old free agent out of Europe who both got better as they aged into their 30’s as opposed to declining like the vast majority of players. Seems reproducible.
No I don't doubt that you get a better chance to get a better player by picking higher, that is obvious. But that isn't all it takes to get over the hump. If it were that easy no one would trade draft picks and no one would try to win until they had a McDavid or a Crosby. And to be clear, at this point, I am 100% in on lose for Hughes like I said originally. But I don't think getting Hughes makes a lock for anything.Tanking doesn’t guarantee a cup but you need special players to win one. Every now and again a team without a hall of fame level talent wins it like Carolina but it isn’t very often. The most reproducible way to acquire that talent is at the top of the draft. Every now and again a guy will be found later in the draft but that is rare. There are now 31 teams with scouts everywhere. Teams aren’t pulling a Lidstrom out of the 3rd round anymore. Just look at Elias Pettersson. 20 years ago he probably taken in the later first or even 2nd round but now goes top 5. It’s harder for guys to slip through the cracks with more scouts now.
So if you playing the percentages, finishing last gives the Flyers a 18.5% chance of getting Hughes. Do you think the percent chance of drafting a Hughes like talent at 14 overall is more or less that that?