Office of Strategic Planning - Tank Talk 2.0

[Spurgeon]

Who are we losing to expansion though?

Foligno, Soucy, or Menell (if Parise waives his NMC). If he doesn’t waive, I strongly consider exposing Dumba because we have the depth at RD to afford it and we clear up $6M in cap.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Foligno, Soucy, or Menell (if Parise waives his NMC). If he doesn’t waive, I strongly consider exposing Dumba because we have the depth at RD to afford it and we clear up $6M in cap.

No bueno.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Make the decision later on. I think a couple TDL deals are inevitable, so we should have quite a bit of ammo to make moves if that's the route we want to go. Also should have quite a bit of ammo to make picks, if that's the route. See where our two picks end up this year, and adjust from there. There's nothing that we have to do right now that is going to lock us into any one direction for the next 5 years.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I, for one, am in no rush with the rebuild. I’d rather do it right than jumping right back into the loop of perpetual mediocrity.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

SJ gets a point in STL.

3 point game LA/Arizona.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I’m not in a rush, unless...

 

[TaLoN]

Guerin will make a fairly big play for a center between now and the start of next season. I guess that still doesn't rule out the accidental tank if he strikes out on his deal.

Accidental I can understand, but I see no reason to expect and plan for it at this moment.

If a swing and miss happens, a swing and miss happens. You have to try though either way.

If you don't try, then you can kiss Kap goodbye, as he'll want out for lack of quality team management, just as Gaborik wanted out.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I’m not in a rush, unless...

He'll look great with Marcus Johansson and Ryan Hartman.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

He'll look great with Marcus Johansson and Ryan Hartman.

Evason, Dumba, Boldy and 2 1sts. Too much or not enough?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Accidental I can understand, but I see no reason to expect and plan for it at this moment.

If a swing and miss happens, a swing and miss happens. You have to try though either way.

If you don't try, then you can kiss Kap goodbye, as he'll want out for lack of quality team management, just as Gaborik wanted out.

Except he has to sign after this year, so there's a decent chance he'll be locked in for a while before whatever we end up doing actually reveals itself.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Evason, Dumba, Boldy and 2 1sts. Too much or not enough?

I'd rather just frame Evason for a crime or something. Don't kill Boldy's value.

 

[TaLoN]

Except he has to sign after this year, so there's a decent chance he'll be locked in for a while before whatever we end up doing actually reveals itself.

Yeah, but we want him to sign after that as well I'd assume.

I wouldn't count on him signing term this coming offseason.

I'd expect he'll be asking for a short deal, not locking himself in beyond UFA eligibility without a clear idea of his chances for success are here.

Consistently pushing off the future is a sure way to chase away the guys we have in the present.

That's why I can't say I'd agree today with anyone saying we should tank next season before we are even halfway into this season, let alone having no idea what the offseason will bring.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, but we want him to sign after that as well I'd assume.

I wouldn't count on him signing term this coming offseason.

I'd expect he'll be asking for a short deal, not locking himself in beyond UFA eligibility without a clear idea of his chances for success are here.

"After that" would be 29 or 30 years old, so I'm not sure it's a huge factor at the moment.

Guaranteeing yourself $40+ million has a pretty big pull compared to $10-$15 million. It always does.

 

[TaLoN]

"After that" would be 29 or 30 years old, so I'm not sure it's a huge factor at the moment.

Guaranteeing yourself $40+ million has a pretty big pull compared to $10-$15 million. It always is.

You think his next contract will include term. I say no way at this point. He's got no incentive to sign away UFA years right now.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You think his next contract will include term. I say no way at this point. He's got no incentive to sign away UFA years right now.

Money is literally incentive.

 

[TaLoN]

Money is literally incentive.

The money will be there anyway. He'll likely get a bigger deal as a ufa in a bidding war and get to choose where he plays.

He's going to be 24 in April. My gut tells me, he's going to ask for 3 years, the Wild would want nothing of that and will offer either 4 years or 2 years, Kap will sign for 2 years and the Wild will need to prove it to him by 26 to get him to sign term or trade him.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The money will be there anyway. He'll likely get a bigger deal as a ufa in a bidding war and get to choose where he plays.

Well, we can figure that out when it happens, because it'll a very early step in whatever this process becomes. If he signs short, we can go a certain way. If he signs long, we can go a different way.

It's not like there's a plethora of options to make us a contender in this offseason. There's literally one good UFA center, and he's not even guaranteed to make it. And if he does, we won't be the only suitor.

"Strategic planning" can mean making the smart decision, but it can also mean not making the dumb one.

I can't tell what you think that "tanking" means when it comes to taking guys off of the current roster. You think Kaprizov is going to leave because we don't re-sign Bonino or something?

 

[TaLoN]

It's not like there's a plethora of options to make us a contender in this offseason.

I never said to make us a contender this offseason. You can show directional growth though this offseason and overall improvement next season and beyond.

My problem is when people are claiming today that not only do we need to suck today, but let's already pack it in for next year too.

You think Kaprizov is going to leave because we don't re-sign Bonino or something?

Do you honestly believe I think a move in the offseason to improve this team is THAT? That's not even discussing in good faith at this point.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I never said to make us a contender this offseason. You can show directional growth though this offseason and overall improvement next season and beyond.

My problem is when people are claiming today that not only do we need to suck today, but let's already pack it in for next year too.

I think their point is more 'don't need to dive into UFA, get the young guys on the roster and playing, let the dead weight fall off, stay flexible and keep building'.

If guys like Rossi, Fiala, Kaprizov and Boldy (and to a lesser extent, Menell and Addison) are who we think they are, then the "sucking" is going to be short-lived.

Is this a "tank" roster to you? One that would put Kap into a pit of despair going forward:

Boldy - Eriksson Ek - Kaprizov
Greenway - Rossi - Fiala
Foligno - Sturm - Zuccarello
Parise - Somebody - Hartman/Somebody

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Menell
Cole - Addison

Talbot
Kahkonen

Or is this young roster with growth potential, especially when you consider that 2 more (potential) top 15 picks could be joining them in a matter of only a couple seasons? Because this could very easily be our roster next season, and it isn't one that has slammed the door on being competitive in short order.

 

[TaLoN]

I think their point is more 'don't need to dive into UFA, get the young guys on the roster and playing, let the dead weight fall off, stay flexible and keep building'.

If guys like Rossi, Fiala, Kaprizov and Boldy (and to a lesser extent, Menell and Addison) are who we think they are, then the "sucking" is going to be short-lived.

Is this a "tank" roster to you? One that would put Kap into a pit of despair going forward:

Boldy - Eriksson Ek - Kaprizov
Greenway - Rossi - Fiala
Foligno - Sturm - Zuccarello
Parise - Somebody - Hartman/Somebody

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Menell
Cole - Addison

Talbot
Kahkonen

Or is this young roster with growth potential, especially when you consider that 2 more (potential) top 15 picks could be joining them in a matter of only a couple seasons? Because this could very easily be our roster next season, and it isn't one that has slammed the door on being competitive in short order.

What I'm saying... if you look at my edit above, is that after this season, I truly believe we need to have Kap convinced that he can play for a contender by playing here over the next two years.

That means clear effort on improving the roster this offseason and the offseason after. After that? If you can't get him to sign for term before that following offseason, you better be working on trading him.

Maybe that means finding the deal for Dumba after the expansion draft, maybe that means something else we can't foresee, but it means making clear effort for improvement over both the next two offseasons.

Does that mean we're a contender in two years? No. It does mean that we should be on a path that appears to be heading towards true cup contenders.

That does usually progress year over year in steps though, so bubble team is likely on the progression route.

 

[guitarhunterdude]

I think their point is more 'don't need to dive into UFA, get the young guys on the roster and playing, let the dead weight fall off, stay flexible and keep building'.

If guys like Rossi, Fiala, Kaprizov and Boldy (and to a lesser extent, Menell and Addison) are who we think they are, then the "sucking" is going to be short-lived.

Is this a "tank" roster to you? One that would put Kap into a pit of despair going forward:

Boldy - Eriksson Ek - Kaprizov
Greenway - Rossi - Fiala
Foligno - Sturm - Zuccarello
Parise - Somebody - Hartman/Somebody

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Menell
Cole - Addison

Talbot
Kahkonen

Or is this young roster with growth potential, especially when you consider that 2 more (potential) top 15 picks could be joining them in a matter of only a couple seasons? Because this could very easily be our roster next season, and it isn't one that has slammed the door on being competitive in short order.

So much hinges on Rossi and Boldy. If both are able to step in and become top-six players, we actually have 4 actual NHL-caliber lines, though obviously Rossi or Ek at 1C isn't ideal. But we don't know.

I'm thinking that's a middling-to-bad team as we see more falloff from Suter, Addison, Menell, Rossi and Boldy all have some growing pains, Ek and/or Greenway fall back to earth some, but Kaprizov, Fiala and Spurgeon probably all have slightly better years than they are so far this year. Hoping one of our TDL acquisitions is another 2022 first, if not a 2023, as both drafts allegedly are better than 2021 and having more talent come in on ELCs as we get to the bitter end of Parise/Suter will be necessary, even if we buy them out and just have to deal w/ cap recapture.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

What I'm saying... if you look at my edit above, is that after this season, I truly believe we need to have Kap convinced that he can play for a contender by playing here over the next two years.

That means clear effort on improving the roster this offseason and the offseason after. After that? If you can't get him to sign for term before that following offseason, you better be working on trading him.

Maybe that means finding the deal for Dumba after the expansion draft, maybe that means something else we can't foresee, but it means making clear effort for improvement over both the next two offseasons.

Does that mean we're a contender in two years? No. It does mean that we should be on a path that appears to be heading towards true cup contenders.

That does usually progress year over year in steps though, so bubble team is likely on the progression route.

I think that the roster that I laid out can be exactly that.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So much hinges on Rossi and Boldy. If both are able to step in and become top-six players, we actually have 4 actual NHL-caliber lines, though obviously Rossi or Ek at 1C isn't ideal. But we don't know.

I'm thinking that's a middling-to-bad team as we see more falloff from Suter, Addison, Menell, Rossi and Boldy all have some growing pains, Ek and/or Greenway fall back to earth some, but Kaprizov, Fiala and Spurgeon probably all have slightly better years than they are so far this year. Hoping one of our TDL acquisitions is another 2022 first, if not a 2023, as both drafts allegedly are better than 2021 and having more talent come in on ELCs as we get to the bitter end of Parise/Suter will be necessary, even if we buy them out and just have to deal w/ cap recapture.

We're a middling-to-bad team right now. A step in the right direction is to have a younger one with more potential.

 

[TaLoN]

I think that the roster that I laid out can be exactly that.

Then if you believe that, you believe we won't completely suck next year either anyway and thus you agree with the overall sentiment that we shouldn't be planning a tank next year already at this point in time.

 

[guitarhunterdude]

We're a middling-to-bad team right now. A step in the right direction is to have a younger one with more potential.

Oh, yeah. I thought you were just talking in terms of performance. I'm expecting similar performance but with a lot more hope if Rossi/Boldy look like future top-six players (though Rossi not being a real 1C could pretty well screw us for another decade tbh)