Speculation: Offersheet Cernak 4.2x5

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
. And on a per player basis, Carlson and Josi have the highest this year, Burns and Giordano last season.

Interestingly, of those 4 names, only GIO actual gets elite usage against the other teams' top lines.

The other three all get the benefit of a different pair carrying the heaviest matchup load - Orlov pair in WAS, Ekholm pair in NAS, Vlasic pair in SJ.
 

82Ninety42011

Registered User
Jul 2, 2011
7,527
5,456
Abbotsford BC
I think TBL have put themselves in a terrible position to be offersheeted on multiple fronts.

Sergachev
Cerelli
Cernak

They have some good trade pieces but if the offersheets come fast and furious they could be in a world of hurt very quickly.

As a GM I would likely be willing to give a 1 and a 3rd for Sergachev, that’s is what 4.3-6.3. He has first pairing LHD written all over him. Cernak again around 4, Cirelli again at 4.3-6.3 means the Bolts have to move anywhere from 13-17 million out.
If three different GM's all OS these three at same time would make for very interesting situation. As Lighting would need to walk away or move dollars. Nice problem to have all that young talent but they better hope they don't get put in OS position with more then one of these guys even worse all three.
 

bov

Registered User
Nov 13, 2010
7,154
3,262
TB finds a way to match this. Cernak had a bit of a sophomore slump (more 1st half) but even still, he has shown enough to make me think he's the real deal going forward. As long as his mobility remains at least adequate, he'll be an effective blueline presence for years to come.

4.2 would be a bit much right now, but on a 5 year term? I don't think that's enough to scare the Lightning away, especially for a mere 2nd rounder.
 
  • Like
Reactions: degustator

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
Interestingly, of those 4 names, only GIO actual gets elite usage against the other teams' top lines.

The other three all get the benefit of a different pair carrying the heaviest matchup load - Orlov pair in WAS, Ekholm pair in NAS, Vlasic pair in SJ.

Yeah, I definitely think Giordano deserves extra credit. I would take 18/ 19 Gio over 18/19 Burns or this season's Carlson or Josi in a heartbeat.
As for Ekholm, Orlov and Vlasic, they all grade pretty well by WAR as well. Over the last few years, Ekholm rates as a low end #1, Orlov more of a high end #2. Vlasic is trending downwards at a worrying pace, but is still a serviceable match up guy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Yeah, I definitely think Giordano deserves extra credit. I would take 18/ 19 Gio over 18/19 Burns or this season's Carlson or Josi in a heartbeat.
As for Ekholm, Orlov and Vlasic, they all grade pretty well by WAR as well. Over the last few years, Ekholm rates as a low end #1, Orlov more of a high end #2. Vlasic is trending downwards at a worrying pace, but is still a serviceable match up guy.

Yeah i follow TOIqoc closely and Vlasic has always had the very toughest qoc in the league, and has rarely had a great partner. He's such an extreme case that I give him even a little bit more extra credit compared to other top matcbup usage guys. But even then the decline in his numbers is hard to overlook.

Ekholm is Nashville's big secret imo. He's an absolute stud.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NHL WAR

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Yeah, I definitely think Giordano deserves extra credit. I would take 18/ 19 Gio over 18/19 Burns or this season's Carlson or Josi in a heartbeat.
As for Ekholm, Orlov and Vlasic, they all grade pretty well by WAR as well. Over the last few years, Ekholm rates as a low end #1, Orlov more of a high end #2. Vlasic is trending downwards at a worrying pace, but is still a serviceable match up guy.

That being said - Josi does get legit above average usage so he's not as skewed as imo carlson and especially burns are.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NHL WAR

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,913
11,862
Leafs Home Board
I don't really see how Leafs can be overly aggressive in free agency nor going after RFA players with OS due to limited cap space resources.

Offersheets are an inflationary process by nature because you need to overpay for it to be successful otherwise his team matches.

The last thing we need our Leafs overpaying in contracts which has already gotten us in a difficult cap situation. Toss in Covid19 cap pressure that might even see a flat of decrease then Leafs are not in a possession to go free spending and might even face downsizing the current roster.

Our Leafs enter this next season among the worst positions cap wise with already $77 mil committed to just 16 players under contract, with a cap ceiling of $81.5 mil which at best case scenario remains flat and only player escrow increases to address the loss of HRR.
 
Last edited:

4thline

Registered User
Jul 18, 2014
14,371
9,674
Waterloo
Offersheets is an inflationary process by nature because you need to overpay for it to be successful otherwise his team matches.

Not if the right holding team can't offer market value and is counting on the player accepting whatever they have left over
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dekes For Days

4thline

Registered User
Jul 18, 2014
14,371
9,674
Waterloo
Running an armchair gm on Tampa
Palat and Gourde traded
Sergachev and Cirelli to matching 4m bridges
Joseph 1m.
Raddysh and Foote promoted

Leaves 5m for Cernak + 7D + 13F + ?F (? could be 4RW, but that leaves Raddysh and Goodrow as 2 and 3. Assuming league min contracts for the remaining players

4.3m for Cernak with no spares
3.6 with one spare
2.9 with two spares

I could see us using the threat of something in the low/mid three's to force a trade, something like Engvall (cheap versatility) + pick(s)
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Running an armchair gm on Tampa
Palat and Gourde traded
Sergachev and Cirelli to matching 4m bridges
Joseph 1m.
Raddysh and Foote promoted

Leaves 5m for Cernak + 7D + 13F + ?F (? could be 4RW, but that leaves Raddysh and Goodrow as 2 and 3. Assuming league min contracts for the remaining players

4.3m for Cernak with no spares
3.6 with one spare
2.9 with two spares

I could see us using the threat of something in the low/mid three's to force a trade, something like Engvall (cheap versatility) + pick(s)

What team is gonna want to pay $5+ mil for Palat (2yrs) or Gourde (5yrs), and how do you get them to waive their NTCs?
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,913
11,862
Leafs Home Board
I think the Leafs are relying heavily that Mikko Lehtonen hits to help fill out a struggling defense core, more than I see them going expensive OS shopping. IMO

These are the types of moves I see Leafs pursuing under tough cap space situations.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ciao

4thline

Registered User
Jul 18, 2014
14,371
9,674
Waterloo
What team is gonna want to pay $5+ mil for Palat (2yrs) or Gourde (5yrs), and how do you get them to waive their NTCs?
It will be tough and they'll likely have to take a bath on the return (or pay in the case of Gourde) but I can see them finding two of Killorn/Palat/Gourde homes.

In any case, the point of that was to show that even if some very difficult and likely painful moves to make space are made and they go bare bones depth wise they're going to be in tough to give market value contracts to all three of their RFA's, and that an OS threat wouldn't have to be an "inflationary overpayment" to work
 
  • Like
Reactions: zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
It will be tough and they'll likely have to take a bath on the return (or pay in the case of Gourde) but I can see them finding two of Killorn/Palat/Gourde homes.

In any case, the point of that was to show that even if some very difficult and likely painful moves to make space are made and they go bare bones depth wise they're going to be in tough to give market value contracts to all three of their RFA's, and that an OS threat wouldn't have to be an "inflationary overpayment" to work

BTW if Cirelli is only getting $4m in your scenario I would be swooping in to beat that.
 

4thline

Registered User
Jul 18, 2014
14,371
9,674
Waterloo
BTW if Cirelli is only getting $4m in your scenario I would be swooping in to beat that.

I imagine a lot of teams would.That's both Cirelli and Serg taking Tampa discounts. Serg should easily garner McAvoy/Werenski money, and Cirelli is hard to peg. Again, showing that even a best case scenario is tough. Move both to 5 per and they have 2.3 for Cernak running a 20 man roster with Goodrow and Raddysh in the top 9, a 700k 4th line RW , no spares
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
I imagine a lot of teams would.That's both Cirelli and Serg taking Tampa discounts. Serg should easily garner McAvoy/Werenski money, and Cirelli is hard to peg. Again, showing that even a best case scenario is tough.
.

I don't think serg is near those 2 but I agree he has the superficial numbers to ask for that.

Cirelli is fantastic, though. He's already their matchup center, produces at a 1st line rate at ES, is a great PK guy, and just hasn't had any PP time to put up bigger numbers.
 

DuncanMacpherson

Registered User
Apr 6, 2010
7,489
3,824
I just want someone to offer sheet Tampa, Preferably another team with more cap space. Since people say offer sheet threats were the reason we had to pay a high price for Matthews and Marner despite none of our rivals ever getting hit by offer sheets it would be nice to see Tampa have to deal with one.
 

Funk21

Registered User
Mar 6, 2013
4,335
1,856
Toronto
I don't really see how Leafs can be overly aggressive in free agency nor going after RFA players with OS due to limited .

Offersheets is an inflationary process by nature because you need to overpay for it to be successful otherwise his team matches.

The last thing we need our Leafs overpaying in contracts which has already gotten us in a difficult cap situation. Toss in Covid19 cap pressure that might even see a flat of decrease then Leafs are not in a possession to go free spending and might even face downsizing the current roster.

Our Leafs enter this next season among the worst positions cap wise with already $77 mil committed to just 16 players under contract, with a cap ceiling of $81.5 mil which at best case scenario remains flat and only player escrow increases to address the loss of HRR.

I don’t disagree with you about how strapped we are regarding the cap situation but I think what Dubas is doing signing these KHL players to one year deals is to make the team flexible.

I actually think next year they might run Nylander as the two C. JT is better suited to handle the tough assignments. Basically this gets us over the hump if the cap is flat.

Hyman Matthews Marner
Mikheyev Nylander Barabanov
Robertson JT Kapanen
Engvall Gauthier Spezza
Korskov

Rielly ??????
Muzzin Holl
Sandin Lehtonen
Marincin

Andersen
Campbell

Trade
Dermott
AJ
Kerfoot

Money even with 1 year bridge deal for Mikheyev and bare bones contracts for Gauthier and Spezza will be tight. It will leave in and around 4 million ish for our top pairing D. Whether that is a player like Cernak via offersheet or a trade for Manson or Larsson or Savard using the picks or prospects we get from the fore-mentioned trades.

From my understanding there has been talk that with Seattle coming in the NHL may go to a 20 team playoff format with the bottom 4 teams from each conference playing a best of 5 to determine the final two teams in a 16 team run through four 7 game series to generate more revenue. Add the TV money and expansion and we should be looking at close to a 100 million dollar cap in a few years. Providing we get COVID-19 sorted out.
 

horner

Registered User
May 22, 2007
7,832
4,337
.

I don't think serg is near those 2 but I agree he has the superficial numbers to ask for that.

Cirelli is fantastic, though. He's already their matchup center, produces at a 1st line rate at ES, is a great PK guy, and just hasn't had any PP time to put up bigger numbers.
I'd Love cirelli we would be set at center.
I think he is from this area as well.
With covid virus, he may wish to stay close to home.
 

MagicalRazor

Registered User
Oct 25, 2016
1,518
591
100% on board with idea . Second may not pan out to be anything , even tho the leafs are incredible at picking recently. He seems to fit our needs to a the T . I'm so down with this proposal
 

BlueBaron

Registered User
May 29, 2006
15,669
6,302
Sarnia, On
Basically, I would save my offer sheet bullets for impact players.
With our Cap situation I'm not sure we have too many "impact player" bullets. We probably have one 5million dollar load to blow.

Cute idea, lots of logic in attacking Tampa. If our Scouts like him I'm all for it. I have no clue what Tampa is going to do but I'm sure they know they have to do something before they risk an offer they can't match.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
77,851
51,521
With our Cap situation I'm not sure we have too many "impact player" bullets. We probably have one 5million dollar load to blow.

Cute idea, lots of logic in attacking Tampa. If our Scouts like him I'm all for it. I have no clue what Tampa is going to do but I'm sure they know they have to do something before they risk an offer they can't match.

Well, any offer sheet fantasy would implicitly come with some cap adjustment elsewhere.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BlueBaron

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
73,091
38,156
With our Cap situation I'm not sure we have too many "impact player" bullets. We probably have one 5million dollar load to blow.

Cute idea, lots of logic in attacking Tampa. If our Scouts like him I'm all for it. I have no clue what Tampa is going to do but I'm sure they know they have to do something before they risk an offer they can't match.
If the scouts like him and the need is there I would imagine they would try and work out a deal for the player.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BlueBaron

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Corsica is still not back up so I can't separate the stats that I would like to post to make this comparison complete, but I have tracked the numbers all year and combined cf% and xgf% as an average, and cfrel and xgfrel as an average, and p/60 and p1/60 as an average, and tiered TOIqoc to judge quality of competition, and this is the closest comparison to Cernak in role and performance on the leafs this year. Why I only use Corsica's numbers is simple - they are the only remaining site to adjust for zone usage, without with imo the stats are pretty useless. So these stats here are all adjusted for what kind of zone deployment these guys get.

Cernak (22): ES 15:52 toi, B+ qoc, 0.40 avgp60, 51.4 avgpos%, -1.8 avgrel --- PK: 2:57
C.Ceci (26): ES 17:38 toi, B+ qoc, 0.35 avgp60, 50.5 avgpos%, -1.8 avgrel --- PK 2:50

Very similar performances in very similar roles - though Ceci's role has been significantly larger.
 

Mess

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
86,913
11,862
Leafs Home Board
Well, any offer sheet fantasy would implicitly come with some cap adjustment elsewhere.

If the scouts like him and the need is there I would imagine they would try and work out a deal for the player.

If the Leafs need to dump players like AJ and Kapanen for futures (trying to create free cap space) to attempt an OS, then I agree it would make more sense to try and trade for a player you like with cap $ out being offset by cap $ in.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
If the Leafs need to dump players like AJ and Kapanen for futures (trying to create free cap space) to attempt an OS, then I agree it would make more sense to try and trade for a player you like with cap $ out being offset by cap $ in.

using the word "dump" there is silly.

good players on good contracts don't get "dumped", they get traded.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->