Speculation: Offersheet Cernak 4.2x5

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Isn't there a rule that if you don't have your 2nd, you just give up the next 2nd you do have as long as it's within 4 years of the OS? We could potentially give up our 2022 2nd if we don't have our 2021 2nd.

Remember back when Leafs GM Brian Burke threatened to OS Kessel of the Bruins that would have resulted in multiple round compensation, so he had to first go and reacquire Leafs own previously traded 2nd in order to make a valid offersheet?

How NHL offer sheets work

For a team to submit an offer sheet, it must have all the draft picks in that year to cover the compensation cost — and the picks have to be their own, not ones acquired from another team. A team may also submit two offer sheets at the same time only if it has enough draft picks to cover the compensation of both offers separately.

If the compensation demands multiple picks from the same round, the signing team must have the pick in the upcoming draft, and then any additional picks covered in the subsequent years. For instance, if compensation is two first-round picks, the signing team must have its own first-rounder in 2019 and 2020 (since the signing period began July 1, after this year’s draft).

How NHL offer sheets work and six players who could get one - Sportsnet.ca

The catch might be because of the Covid-19 situation which comes first this entry draft or the UFA season. If the entry draft happens and Leafs do resign Clifford then they would give up their 2020 2nd rounder. However if free agency followed that then any Leafs future OS would then require Leafs 2021 2nd rounder. So timing is the key here.
 
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Mickey Marner

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Isn't there a rule that if you don't have your 2nd, you just give up the next 2nd you do have as long as it's within 4 years of the OS? We could potentially give up our 2022 2nd if we don't have our 2021 2nd.

The pick exception only works if the OS requires multiples of the same pick, otherwise it is the next available pick everytime.
 
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Morbo

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Jan 14, 2003
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Not worried about the 2nd...I can't see how Clifford comes back. his last contract was 1.6 million, I mean you've got to be kidding me.
 
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Funk21

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I think an offer sheet in that draft pick range is a good idea, but I'd rather target MacKenzie Weegar

Both would be a decent add but Cernak adds a massive body. On hockey reference-listed at 6”4 225. Mainly plays in his defensive zone and is a few years younger.

Hopefully somebody can pull his advanced stats because the only ones I have available are hockey-reference and the old eye test.
 

NHL WAR

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Both would be a decent add but Cernak adds a massive body. On hockey reference-listed at 6”4 225. Mainly plays in his defensive zone and is a few years younger.

Hopefully somebody can pull his advanced stats because the only ones I have available are hockey-reference and the old eye test.

Yeah, he would definitely fill a need. As far as advanced stats go, I've been developing a WAR metric for defenseman recently and as it stands now, Cernak was worth 0.8 WAR this year and 1.7 last. Positive defensive impact both years. Not great (Dermott for example grades better), but still in the #4 defenseman range.
 

Funk21

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We could resign Clifford and make the offersheet into the next tier (1st and 3rd). Obviously this is pushing the AAV a little higher than anticipated but if we believe he can play first pairing minutes something around 5x5 is no big deal.
 

Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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Both would be a decent add but Cernak adds a massive body. On hockey reference-listed at 6”4 225. Mainly plays in his defensive zone and is a few years younger.

Hopefully somebody can pull his advanced stats because the only ones I have available are hockey-reference and the old eye test.

View media item 7686
 

WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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Cernak was playing a bit hurt this year.

I view Cernak as a top 4 player vs Weegar as a "good" 3rd pairing guy.

You could probably trade for Weegar quite easily.

They have Ekblad and Stralman as their top 4 with Josh Brown as a cheaper option for them on the 3rd pairing. They're trying to cut down payroll so Florida would likely take Brown over Weegar.
 

Fogelhund

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Sep 15, 2007
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Cernak was playing a bit hurt this year.

I view Cernak as a top 4 player vs Weegar as a "good" 3rd pairing guy.

You could probably trade for Weegar quite easily.

They have Ekblad and Stralman as their top 4 with Josh Brown as a cheaper option for them on the 3rd pairing. They're trying to cut down payroll so Florida would likely take Brown over Weegar.

62.17%EVEKBLAD,AARON - WEEGAR,MACKENZIE
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Seems Florida plays him on their top pair... and he's done well.... yet you view him as a 3rd pairing guy?
 

zeke

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Seems Florida plays him on their top pair... and he's done well.... yet you view him as a 3rd pairing guy?

I don't have access to Corsica right now but I do remember weegar jumping off the page when I looked at Florida's numbers this year. And thats even after accounting for quality of competition. He is very much their version of Holl this year. What’s fascinating is that there is a very good argument that Weegar is one of the main reasons Ekblad is finally having a good fancy stats season too.

Of course, you always worry about lack of track record in this cases. Much like with Cernak's change in performance from last year to this year.
 

JT AM da real deal

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Oct 4, 2018
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All it will cost is our 2021 2nd. Kid is massive, looks solid D wise and while it’s an overpayment now we would have one of the youngest and IMO best D cores.

Rielly Cernak
Muzzin Holl
Sandin Lehtonen
Marincin

Liljegren is called up at the TDL and replaces Marincin for the playoffs and is our 3rd pairing RHD the following season.
If it is doable then bingo bango lets get er done ... tough ombre ... plays a rock solid
 

WTFMAN99

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Seems Florida plays him on their top pair... and he's done well.... yet you view him as a 3rd pairing guy?

upload_2020-6-4_17-14-59.png


Mostly from 18-19 when I saw the Panthers more.

I didn't see them much this year. Real interesting about him playing more this year.
 

WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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Okay so if Weegar is the guy...I tried to do an improve the defense by committee approach.

FLA-TOR - Toronto takes on the Sceviour contract to help FLA cut salary and Kerfoot goes over to help with their centre position.

Roy-Dermott swap has merit. We've traded with LAK a few times and they've said they need LD help.

Capfriendly1.PNG


Capfriendly2.PNG
 
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Once

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Jul 16, 2010
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Yeah, he would definitely fill a need. As far as advanced stats go, I've been developing a WAR metric for defenseman recently and as it stands now, Cernak was worth 0.8 WAR this year and 1.7 last. Positive defensive impact both years. Not great (Dermott for example grades better), but still in the #4 defenseman range.

Can you unpack the WAR measure for those unaware?
 

Ciao

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Jul 15, 2010
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That kind of signing could turn out to be Nikita Zaitsev 2.0 [unless the Leafs were really sold on him and sure of what they're getting].

Too much money and term, too many cap complications, and too much downside risk to do that.
 

NHL WAR

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Sep 29, 2018
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Can you unpack the WAR measure for those unaware?

Goals, assists and penalties taken vs drawn at each strength. 5v5 (score adjusted, with quality of teammates and zone starts taken into account) shot attempts and expected goals. Split between individual (iCF, iXG) and teammate (trying to judge playmaking ability, CF-iCF, XG-iXG). Defensive ability is based on CA, xGA, takeaways per CA and blocked shots per CA.

All these stats are judged against a league average player. Based on their ice time, they are then credited with additional "goals" to make up for the difference between an average player and a replacement level player.

Not an exact science, but it lines up pretty well with reality... you can reasonably predict how many games a team won just based off their defenseman's WAR. And on a per player basis, Carlson and Josi have the highest this year, Burns and Giordano last season.
 

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