Offer Sheet Thread

[Kriss E]

1)If they can’t unload Marleau (NMC), Leafs have 7.5M$ to sign 6 players one of which is Marner... they can’t really afford to match but they might if they can get better value in a trade.

2) How much you think Kapanen is worth to consider 3,5m$ Such a low offer? Considering Gallagher 3.75M$, Domi 3.1M$, Danault 3M$ I would say 3.5 is fair he might be able to get more but I can’t see Toronto doing it and I not sure any team would be getting their moneys worth if they did...

1) They wont let Kapanen go for just a 2nd pick. There is no reason to believe they wont be able to clear space.

2) Domi came from scoring 9 goals. But I'm not talking about the team hes with signing him. I could see him accept around a 3-4M deal, but offersheets are usually signed with bigger money involved. You overpay.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

The 2019 RFA class is loaded with talent. This is the summer to make an offer sheet IMO. Which of these players are the most realistic target in your opinion?

Rantanen
Marner
Point
Aho
Laine
Tkachuk
Meier
Boeser
Connor
W. Karlsson
Kapanen
Beauvilier

Werenski
Provorov
McAvoy
Trouba
Lindell

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Kapanen
Beauvilier
Lindell

Maybe Connor

MB will not offer sheet a player.

 

[L4br3cqu3]

No offer sheet has been made in about 6 years.

No one wants to have a target in their back.

 

[psychonaut]

He will not make an offer sheet but RFA is MB favorite target for trades.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

I don’t see is trading for or offer sheeting another forward. A D? Maybe a trade.

 

[Hostile Offer]

I wouldn't offer anything that would require losing a 1st. This organization is in a weird state considering the near future.

 

[Hins77]

Offer sheet werenski. Columbus will match it, but wont be able to resign matt duchene. After that, you sign matt duchene on ufa market

 

[MTL-rules]

Offer sheet werenski. Columbus will match it, but wont be able to resign matt duchene. After that, you sign matt duchene on ufa market

Again this obsession with this player... guy's a loser, stay away from him. Since being acquired Columbus are a .500 team and Duchene has 4pts in 10 games. Losing is following this guy and you want to pay the 9-10mil he wants ?

 

[Habs Halifax]

No offer sheet has been made in about 6 years.

No one wants to have a target in their back.

Doesn't mean it will never happen again. I think it's unlikely but I won't be surprised if one GM gets aggressive. This is the best RFA class of talent we have seen in a very long time.

Cap is also rising above previous years of inflation averages so agents are also going after AAV's that will make GM's take fits. Just like Domi is going to do to us in the 2020 off season. This is a big factor in all this.. Some teams are tight against the cap wall and other teams have the space and cup contending team to make a move in a RFA offer sheet.

Will it happen? I'm doubtful but won't be surprised. If negotiations get tough, the player/agent will explore other options.

 

[Scintillating10]

Everybody is against it. I can understand a weak team who will be drafting high. But what about a mid-range team, with tons of caproom. Sounds like this year's Habs? Adding a star no doubt they will be drafting late first round in next few years. Even if another team matches it hurts divisional rivals like Tampa or Toronto.

I can see a scenario where it is better to get a young star all in his prime years. Take a Brayden Point or Mitch Marner for example; You get them from years 23-30(most anybody can sign for is 7 years). All prime years(their best seasons). Compared to a UFA, like a Duchene who we get from years 29-36. The last 2-3 years of Duchene contract are going to be painful. We only get 3, maybe 4 years of Duchene's prime years.
Near the end of Point's contract it can be argued the Habs be in decline, a rebuilding or retooling phrase. As Price, Weber, Gallagher and company will either be retired or a shadow of themselves.

Also, if situation comes up Point wants out/or we have to trade him. A 28 year old Point would have very high trade value asset. We would get back what we gave up for him, should be more. So, we are getting him for nil.

Yes, we have to give up 4 first round picks now. But consider those picks by adding a Point with what we have in Gallagher, Domi, Price, Weber, etc.... Habs be drafting between 20-30 in those years. I did a quick breakdown of last 10 drafts. I never used recent drafts as not enough time elapsed to allow for all to develop. So, I used draft 2005 to 2014. I wanted to do 10 drafts to give a fair sample size.

Stats show 2 of those 4 picks will not make it, or be a fringe player. There is a 61% chance those picks will busts. Of course leaving 39% of those picks who will make it. Of the 39% who made it, 7% chance those picks will be first line forward or first pairing defenseman, or starting goalies. With 2 of those being goalies, Rask and Varlamov.

Leaving 32% as average NHLers. The 7% who went on to be top players were: David Pastrnak, John Carlson, Jordan Eberle, Max Pacioretty, Claude Giroux, Tukku Rask, Semyon Varlamov.

Out of 100 picks between 20-30th, the 32 who were average NHLers were: T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Niskanen, Nick Foligno, Patrik Berglund, Brendan Smith, David Perron, Mikael Backlund, Tyler Ennis, Michael Del Zotto, John Moore, Marcus Johansson, Kyle Palmiere, Charlie Coyle, Brock Nelson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Riley Sheahan, Kevin Hayes, Vladislav Namestnikov, Philip Danault, Rickard Rakell, Matt Puempel, Tanner Pearson, Mike Matheson, Mark Jankowski, Scott Laugton, Shea Theodore, Andre Burakovsky, Anthony Mantha, Kasperi Kapanen, Robbi Fabbri, Adrian Kempe. That's the odds in the picks we give up.

The last team to major offer sheet was Philly on Shea Weber back in 2012. If they had given up four first from 2013-2016? Only 2 have made it to date. Although Morin and Rubtsov are still in the system in could be argued. The two who made it were Provorov and Sandeim. Keep in mind Philly would not have been drafting this high if they had landed Weber. So take these picks with a grain of salt. As Philly likely be drafting much later than they were. Weber could have landed them Subban. In case it did not work out in Philly.

 

[smirob]

I’m not opposed to it, but i think it’s better to target a lesser but high potential player to lose less picks.

Let the leafs sign Marner then offer sheet Kapenen

Or go after Kyle Connor.

Someone we can sign for less

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

I won't hold my breath but the current contract climate is vastly different than we've ever seen. Players are starting to get paid for what they are expected to provide in the future rather than based off of their past performance with these huge long-term deals right out of ELC's.

What makes this interesting is that this in relatively new. So a lot of teams will find themselves in trouble having paid their vets under what I'll call the old system. A system that rewarded past performance with $$$. I don't say this begrudgingly. These players were underpaid in their 20's. But what it has done is create a tough situation in a cap world where teams are stuck paying out contracts based on past performance while simultaneously having younger players expecting to be paid for their expected future performance as the new system demands.

Until there is balance and the majority of these old contracts paying aging vets are expired we will have, at least potentially, some chances for offer-sheets. If only this change were a few more years in the future where I would bet that the NHLPA would push to lower offer-sheet compensation. That really would have made it interesting. But by, 2022 I would expect that this will have worked itself out and this new system of paying players will be worked out.

But until then, 22 year olds making 6-7-8-9 million per are going to cause a small amount of havoc on teams caps making it at least possible we'll see some offer-sheets.

The thing about offer sheets is that if a team goes after a top RFA, they will lose many draft picks in the years to come. Is it worth mortgaging your future? Also, a GM risks the chance of becoming "persona non grata" of some sorts among the league. The past has shown this although teams didn't mortgage the future by giving away picks as somehow teams matched the offer sheet. Weber is an example.

Again, if a GM does this he can expect his top RFA players to be potched away at some point. Bottom line, why offer sheets are rare is because GMs risk losing more in the long run like top draft picks, reputation and retaliation. All this and not getting the player in the end. For this reason, MB will not offer sheet anyone because he is a bargain hunter and is mostly conservative.

A reasonable GM will try to make a trade for a top RFA by giving away a prospect, a top draft pick and a little more than risking retaliation, mortgaging the future or his reputation.

 

[angry pirate]

Again, if a GM does this he can expect his top RFA players to be potched away at some point. Bottom line, why offer sheets are rare is because GMs risk losing more in the long run like top draft picks, reputation and retaliation.

Your top RFA's can only be poached if you don't sign them. Retaliation is overblown in my opinion, if you can't afford your own RFA's I doubt you are going to be in a position to overpay and go after mine. And then, unless the stars align, rival gm's are unlikely to be, both, in a position to retaliate without hurting their own clubs future while simultaneously having the draft capital and cap space.

The draft pick compensation makes it tough but not for reasons you think (in my opinion). Of a bigger issue is that teams trade their draft picks. Especially good teams at the deadline. So teams in positions to spend mid to late round 1sts on really good RFA's are limited to those who still own all their picks. Again, NHLPA bargaining issues, but I think a better system would be supplemental rounds for teams that lose RFA's. The signing team would pay the losing team a % of the contract as payment.

The biggest issue facing offersheets is a) limited teams available to actually offer sheet, b) traditional ease of matching, c) players not wanting to actually sign them, and rarely talked about d) rival teams not actually wanting to spend what the player is demanding.

 

[Vachon23]

I would try an offer sheet on Timo Meier

 

[thegoalie39]

Of course there. However, you have to think about the best fit and the likelihood of the RFA signing with you. The Jets aren't likely to match a big money deal for someone who went through a slump worse than Drouin's. Factor in the fact that Laine is Finnish and Montreal has plenty of Finns on the team. We're also in need of true sniper. It's a great fit for both sides.

I think you could offer sheet a player maybe not as good as Laine but similar production...where you only sacrifice one or two 1st round picks instead of 4 you have to give up for Laine.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

I think you could offer sheet a player maybe not as good as Laine but similar production...where you only sacrifice one or two 1st round picks instead of 4 you have to give up for Laine.

You can get Laine for 9.5 x 5 and only give up two first rounders. He then gets another chance at a big contract at the young age of 26.

 

[Vachon23]

You can get Laine for 9.5 x 5 and only give up two first rounders. He then gets another chance at a big contract at the young age of 26.

WPG would accept

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

WPG would accept

Purely speculation at this point. His play this season has not warranted 9.5 but I believe he would thrive in a Finnish environment.

 

[thegoalie39]

You can get Laine for 9.5 x 5 and only give up two first rounders. He then gets another chance at a big contract at the young age of 26.

In theory yes but what if a team offered 8 years he will sign the offer sheet with more guaranteed money.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

In theory yes but what if a team offered 8 years he will sign the offer sheet with more guaranteed money.

But then the team offering him 8 years would have to give up four first round picks. No team is going to want to do that. Also, players have been open to shorter deals so that they could hit UFA earlier. Take Matthews 11.6 x 5 contract for example

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

Your top RFA's can only be poached if you don't sign them. Retaliation is overblown in my opinion, if you can't afford your own RFA's I doubt you are going to be in a position to overpay and go after mine. And then, unless the stars align, rival gm's are unlikely to be, both, in a position to retaliate without hurting their own clubs future while simultaneously having the draft capital and cap space.

The draft pick compensation makes it tough but not for reasons you think (in my opinion). Of a bigger issue is that teams trade their draft picks. Especially good teams at the deadline. So teams in positions to spend mid to late round 1sts on really good RFA's are limited to those who still own all their picks. Again, NHLPA bargaining issues, but I think a better system would be supplemental rounds for teams that lose RFA's. The signing team would pay the losing team a % of the contract as payment.

The biggest issue facing offersheets is a) limited teams available to actually offer sheet, b) traditional ease of matching, c) players not wanting to actually sign them, and rarely talked about d) rival teams not actually wanting to spend what the player is demanding.

Again don't expect MB to offer sheet any player. He will simply not do this and your logic is flawed on several points. If a team doesn't believe a player should get what the player is demanding, they are in no obligation to do so. It still means that as an RFA, the team still retains the player's rights and can trade them to any other team for something of value. If another GM comes and offer sheets said player, the current team can still match the offer and the past has shown that 99% of the time they will, so the player wins in the end remaining with the same club. The other GM loses because he creates animosity between his rivals by seriously restricting them with their salary cap and forcing them to part ways with other players.

It is a pretty classless move and will land you into the "no welcome territory" fairly quick. I can give you Kevin Lowe as an example. Either way, why would any GM risk losing 2 or 3 consecutive back to back first round picks for one player that might regress in 5 years. GMs would simply trade a first rounder, a prospect and an established player on a bad contract to get a top RFA and then sign them.

Also, if a GM grabs a top RFA from another team through an offer sheet, then in a year's time, they might lose their own RFAs because it will create a precedence. This means that the whole notion of having RFAs will no longer be valid because teams would no longer be able to hold on to their RFAs however teams will be mortgaging their future by giving away picks for years to other teams.

Teams now sign RFAs to long term front loaded deals on hopes that they will deliver because they are afraid of losing them or the salary cap that might restrict them in 2 or 3 years ahead. MB doesn't like signing players to long term deals unless he has no other means.

 

[angry pirate]

Again don't expect MB to offer sheet any player. He will simply not do this and your logic is flawed on several points. If a team doesn't believe a player should get what the player is demanding, they are in no obligation to do so. It still means that as an RFA, the team still retains the player's rights and can trade them to any other team for something of value. If another GM comes and offer sheets said player, the current team can still match the offer and the past has shown that 99% of the time they will, so the player wins in the end remaining with the same club. The other GM loses because he creates animosity between his rivals by seriously restricting them with their salary cap and forcing them to part ways with other players.

I never said that I expect MB too. I said that we have a climate for the next few seasons that could promote offer sheets (league wide) given the changes we are seeing to how teams are choosing to pay players. I also said I wouldn't hold my breath.

It is a pretty classless move and will land you into the "no welcome territory" fairly quick. I can give you Kevin Lowe as an example. Either way, why would any GM risk losing 2 or 3 consecutive back to back first round picks for one player that might regress in 5 years. GMs would simply trade a first rounder, a prospect and an established player on a bad contract to get a top RFA and then sign them.

How did it land him in no welcome territory? Brian Burke and the Sabres were mad at him. Nobody else seems to have held it against him that I know of. Further, here is a list of trades made post offer-sheets. Disclaimer - not my work.

Calgary GM Jay Feaster—Signed Colorado’s Ryan O’Reilly to an offer sheet in February 2013; fired in December 2013. In between those dates, Feaster traded with: Pittsburgh, St. Louis (2x), Columbus, Florida, Colorado, San Jose, Toronto, Edmonton, Anaheim, and Dallas. Notable: Colorado GM Greg Sherman, who made the decision to match the O’Reilly offer sheet, apparently managed an emotional recovery from Feaster’s terrible deed in time to make a trade with him four months later.

Philadelphia GM Paul Holmgren—Signed Nashville’s Shea Weber to an offer sheet in July 2012; promoted to team president in May 2014. In between those dates, Holmgren traded with: Boston, the New York Islanders (2x), Colorado, the New York Rangers, Columbus (2x, Detroit, Los Angeles, Calgary, and Carolina.

San Jose Sharks GM Doug Wilson—Signed Chicago’s Niklas Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet in July 2010; is still presently the Sharks’ GM. In between that date and now, Wilson traded with: Pittsburgh (3x), Atlanta/Winnipeg (2x), New Jersey, Carolina (2x), Minnesota (4x), Florida (2x), Tampa Bay (2x), Colorado (2x), Detroit, Chicago (2x), the New York Rangers (2x), Nashville, Arizona (2x), Calgary, Edmonton, Philadelphia, Dallas, the New York Islanders, Vancouver (2x) Boston, Toronto (2x), Detroit, and Ottawa. Chicago seems to have gotten over however upset it felt at Hjalmarsson being signed to an offer sheet enough to deal with Wilson again.

St. Louis GM Larry Pleau—Signed Steve Bernier to an offer sheet in July 2008; promoted to St. Louis’ Vice-President in July 2010. In between those dates, he traded with: Toronto (2x), Pittsburgh (5x), Nashville, Columbus (3x), Chicago, Montreal (2x), Colorado (2x), Boston (2x), Washington (3x), Florida (2x), Tampa Bay, Buffalo (5x), Anaheim, the New York Rangers, Tampa Bay, New Jersey, Calgary (3x), Ottawa, Edmonton (3x), Arizona. Pleau’s was the retaliatory offer sheet against Vancouver, so perhaps teams wouldn’t have held it against him, but I’ve included his list for completeness.

Vancouver GM Mike Gillis—Signed St. Louis’ David Backes to an offer sheet in July 2008; fired in April 2014. In between those dates, Gillis traded with: Ottawa (2x) Tampa Bay, Chicago, Anaheim (2x), Arizona (2x), San Jose, Carolina (3x), St. Louis, Florida (7x), Nashville, Minnesota, the New York Islanders, Columbus, Buffalo, Dallas, New Jersey, Montreal, and the New York Rangers. Two thing stand out: Gillis subsequently conducted a trade with the team whose player he offer-sheeted, and Vancouver has a weirdly close connection with the Panthers.

Edmonton GM Kevin Lowe—Signed Buffalo’s Thomas Vanek and Anaheim’s Dustin Penner to offer sheets in July 2007; promoted to director of hockey operations in July 2008. In between those dates, he traded with: Columbus, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Carolina.
Philadelphia GM Bobby Clarke—Signed Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler to an offer sheet in September 2006; resigned October 2006. No trades. I guess the NHL embargoed Clarke for the last month of his tenure.

I don't think the blacklist exists outside of NBC or invitations to Burkie's Beachhouse.

Also, if a GM grabs a top RFA from another team through an offer sheet, then in a year's time, they might lose their own RFAs because it will create a precedence.

Did anybody go after Philly after their very publicized offer sheet to Weber? How about Lowe's Oilers? There is zero precedence to the notion that teams will vendetta anybody who offer sheets. That's fan conjecture and nothing more.

This means that the whole notion of having RFAs will no longer be valid because teams would no longer be able to hold on to their RFAs however teams will be mortgaging their future by giving away picks for years to other teams.

We've had 8 offer-sheets in the 2000's and RFA status is as strong as ever.

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

I never said that I expect MB too. I said that we have a climate for the next few seasons that could promote offer sheets (league wide) given the changes we are seeing to how teams are choosing to pay players. I also said I wouldn't hold my breath.



How did it land him in no welcome territory? Brian Burke and the Sabres were mad at him. Nobody else seems to have held it against him that I know of. Further, here is a list of trades made post offer-sheets. Disclaimer - not my work.

Calgary GM Jay Feaster—Signed Colorado’s Ryan O’Reilly to an offer sheet in February 2013; fired in December 2013. In between those dates, Feaster traded with: Pittsburgh, St. Louis (2x), Columbus, Florida, Colorado, San Jose, Toronto, Edmonton, Anaheim, and Dallas. Notable: Colorado GM Greg Sherman, who made the decision to match the O’Reilly offer sheet, apparently managed an emotional recovery from Feaster’s terrible deed in time to make a trade with him four months later.

Philadelphia GM Paul Holmgren—Signed Nashville’s Shea Weber to an offer sheet in July 2012; promoted to team president in May 2014. In between those dates, Holmgren traded with: Boston, the New York Islanders (2x), Colorado, the New York Rangers, Columbus (2x, Detroit, Los Angeles, Calgary, and Carolina.

San Jose Sharks GM Doug Wilson—Signed Chicago’s Niklas Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet in July 2010; is still presently the Sharks’ GM. In between that date and now, Wilson traded with: Pittsburgh (3x), Atlanta/Winnipeg (2x), New Jersey, Carolina (2x), Minnesota (4x), Florida (2x), Tampa Bay (2x), Colorado (2x), Detroit, Chicago (2x), the New York Rangers (2x), Nashville, Arizona (2x), Calgary, Edmonton, Philadelphia, Dallas, the New York Islanders, Vancouver (2x) Boston, Toronto (2x), Detroit, and Ottawa. Chicago seems to have gotten over however upset it felt at Hjalmarsson being signed to an offer sheet enough to deal with Wilson again.

St. Louis GM Larry Pleau—Signed Steve Bernier to an offer sheet in July 2008; promoted to St. Louis’ Vice-President in July 2010. In between those dates, he traded with: Toronto (2x), Pittsburgh (5x), Nashville, Columbus (3x), Chicago, Montreal (2x), Colorado (2x), Boston (2x), Washington (3x), Florida (2x), Tampa Bay, Buffalo (5x), Anaheim, the New York Rangers, Tampa Bay, New Jersey, Calgary (3x), Ottawa, Edmonton (3x), Arizona. Pleau’s was the retaliatory offer sheet against Vancouver, so perhaps teams wouldn’t have held it against him, but I’ve included his list for completeness.

Vancouver GM Mike Gillis—Signed St. Louis’ David Backes to an offer sheet in July 2008; fired in April 2014. In between those dates, Gillis traded with: Ottawa (2x) Tampa Bay, Chicago, Anaheim (2x), Arizona (2x), San Jose, Carolina (3x), St. Louis, Florida (7x), Nashville, Minnesota, the New York Islanders, Columbus, Buffalo, Dallas, New Jersey, Montreal, and the New York Rangers. Two thing stand out: Gillis subsequently conducted a trade with the team whose player he offer-sheeted, and Vancouver has a weirdly close connection with the Panthers.

Edmonton GM Kevin Lowe—Signed Buffalo’s Thomas Vanek and Anaheim’s Dustin Penner to offer sheets in July 2007; promoted to director of hockey operations in July 2008. In between those dates, he traded with: Columbus, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Carolina.
Philadelphia GM Bobby Clarke—Signed Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler to an offer sheet in September 2006; resigned October 2006. No trades. I guess the NHL embargoed Clarke for the last month of his tenure.

I don't think the blacklist exists outside of NBC or invitations to Burkie's Beachhouse.



Did anybody go after Philly after their very publicized offer sheet to Weber? How about Lowe's Oilers? There is zero precedence to the notion that teams will vendetta anybody who offer sheets. That's fan conjecture and nothing more.



We've had 8 offer-sheets in the 2000's and RFA status is as strong as ever.

The point that I am trying to make is that they stopped doing offer sheets for those obvious reasons I have stated, that's why you have 8 offer sheets that happened in the 2000s. I already gave you Weber as an example before you mentioned it. Weber's contract is because of an offer sheet. You clearly missed my point of what I mean about the "blacklist". But anyways, carry on.

 

[Deebs]

How many picks would it cost us if we offered and landed a player for $10M?