Proposal: Offer sheet Nylander

[DomBarr]

After five you have to overpay because it's some weird rule like under five years it's a certain amount of money and if you offer a longer contract you give away all your picks. I don't remember the exact wording but I'm pretty sure after five it's not worth it

if a contract is longer than 5 yrs you take the total contract value and divide it by 5 to get the AAV used for offer sheet compensation. So a 7 yr 7M (total contract value of 49M divided by 5) contract has an AAV of $9.8 M which is 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd

 

[yababy]

You can't understand the signing Here let me explain the signing.

Matthews Tavares Kadri, that's all the explanation needed but lets go further.

McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins.
How did that work for Edmonton?

 

[yababy]

It's a horrible idea.

Scenario #1 - You offer Nylander less than enough money to avoid paying 4 1sts. Leafs match and you look like a dick.
Scenario #2 - You offer Nylander enough money that it would cost 4 1sts. Leafs decline to match. You win Nylander and you also look like a dick.

Nylander looks like he's the real deal, but wouldn't it be nice to wait until he does something crazy (yet possible) like score 90 points or 40 goals before we throw him a blank cheque?

At team can offer 7.5m and compensate with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Young, developing teams that should make such an offer?
Vancouver, NJ, NYI, Columbus Carolina, Detroit.

 

[Peiskos]

McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins.
How did that work for Edmonton?

Toronto's Matthews-Tavares-Kadri isn't comparable to that at all. Toronto actually has depth around those 3, the Oilers have nothing but 3rd and 4th liners around those 3. Nice try though!

 

[TheDoldrums]

McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins.
How did that work for Edmonton?

When one of them has to play wing because they have no capable wingers, pretty poorly.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins.
How did that work for Edmonton?

It didn't because unlike Toronto the oilers have no depth, like I said Toronto can't be matched offensively in general, because not only does Toronto have Matthews Tavares and Kadri down the middle, they also have, Marner, Nylander, Marleau, Hyman, Kapanen, Brown Johnsson and Ennis on the wing.

Edmonton has nothing close to that quality on the wing.

like I said it's just at center where Toronto can't be matched it's on offense period.

 

[NoName]

Oh I know, I was on my phone and was a bit lazy, did not finish the whole thought :p
But if Nashville offershets Nylander at 8 and Leafs match ( if even Nylander signs) what would that mean for Marner? No way he would want to earn less? He would want 9 then I guess???

Yeah that would be sticky... that max $8.1 million per season amount (to just have to give a 1st, 2nd and 3rd as compensation) would be enough for Dubas to have to sit and think; Nylander is almost certainly worth more than just those picks on paper (with Nashville that 1st is likely to be pick 25-30, so... meh), but $8.1 million is pushing it, and is probably a million and a half more than what Nylander is actually with. I think ultimately Dubas matches at that amount, but that would be interesting to see. Now if a team offers above that threshold into the $8.1 million to $10.1 million range for Nylander (and compensation is then 2 firsts, a second and a third for the Leafs) then I think Dubas lets Nylander walk (and regardless of how much Nylander likes Toronto and the team I can't imagine he would turn down such a contract), but that would be a gross over-payment for Nylander; he is young a top-line winger and potentially could make the move to being a top-6 centre full-time but he isn't worth $9-10 million, not even close.

An eleite team (with the cap space) offer-sheeting at $8,118,641 is not necessarily a bad idea; it would test Toronto's resolve, and if they matched, force them to overpay a bit for Nylander making them more vulnerable next off-season when Marner and Matthews are up, and if Toronto didn't match then $8,118,641 isn't so much of an overpayment that it would be unpalatable given Nylander already is a two-time 60 point guy (in his first two seasons) who is just 21 and will likely continue to improve for a couple seasons more. Furthermore, for a contender those picks they would lose in compensation to Toronto aren't likely to be all that valuable (obviously a bottom-feeder team wouldn't offer-sheet Nylander because they would risk losing a first-overall pick).

What is holding this scenario back is that there needs to be a team who is a contender (so those forfeited picks are low) who has a pressing need for a player with Nylander's skill-set and can throw around $8,118,641+ to offer-sheet Nylander and still have enough cap-space left to keep their own players under contract. That hypothetical team having a vested interest in weakening the Leafs (eg. a division or conference rival) wouldn't hurt as motivation for the offer-sheet either. The fact that there doesn't seem to be a lot of teams out there that tick all these boxes is why we haven't seen an offer-sheet yet, and why offer-sheets in general are so rare.

 

[34]

McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins.
How did that work for Edmonton?

RNH is a bust.

Toronto is a way better team AINEC.

 

[Drake1588]

Nashville doesn't have its third round pick. That's a particularly important pick with regard to offer sheets.

There are seven tiers of compensation. The second, fourth, fifth, and sixth tiers require your own third rounder.

So the Predators can offer sheet someone making between zero and $1.34M / between $2.03M and $4.06M / and north of $10.15M, in the form of the player's cap hit (AAV).

Nothing between $4.06M and $10.15M is possible. Ergo, the Predators aren't offer sheeting anyone.

This is before calculating how many clubs a younger forward would rather be on than Toronto right now. There's a list, but it's real short. Many of the clubs on it would have the same problem as Nashville: They've dealt a pick away, without which they cannot tender an offer sheet in certain tier(s).

 

[NoName]

At team can offer 7.5m and compensate with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Young, developing teams that should make such an offer?
Vancouver, NJ, NYI, Columbus Carolina, Detroit.

At $7.5 million Toronto matches. The sweet-spot is probably right at the top of that bracket at $8,118,641. That would be enough of an over-payment to at least give Dubas pause. Now as to your list of teams: Vancouver, New York Isalnders and Detroit aren't going to dare doing that because if Toronto declines to match, the first they are giving up is going to be a lottery pick. Ask yourself which GM wants to give up a pick to Toronto that could end up being Jack Hughs?

For a team to be willing to do this it has to at least be playoff caliber (so they aren't giving up lottery picks), have a big need for Nylander's skill-set and be well below the cap so that they can drop $8.1 million (or more) on him and still have enough left over to sign their own guys. This is why offer-sheets are so uncommon in today's NHL.

 

[howkie]

Yeah that would be sticky... that max $8.1 million per season amount (to just have to give a 1st, 2nd and 3rd as compensation) would be enough for Dubas to have to sit and think; Nylander is almost certainly worth more than just those picks on paper (with Nashville that 1st is likely to be pick 25-30, so... meh), but $8.1 million is pushing it, and is probably a million and a half more than what Nylander is actually with. I think ultimately Dubas matches at that amount, but that would be interesting to see. Now if a team offers above that threshold into the $8.1 million to $10.1 million range for Nylander (and compensation is then 2 firsts, a second and a third for the Leafs) then I think Dubas lets Nylander walk (and regardless of how much Nylander likes Toronto and the team I can't imagine he would turn down such a contract), but that would be a gross over-payment for Nylander; he is young a top-line winger and potentially could make the move to being a top-6 centre full-time but he isn't worth $9-10 million, not even close.

An eleite team (with the cap space) offer-sheeting at $8,118,641 is not necessarily a bad idea; it would test Toronto's resolve, and if they matched, force them to overpay a bit for Nylander making them more vulnerable next off-season when Marner and Matthews are up, and if Toronto didn't match then $8,118,641 isn't so much of an overpayment that it would be unpalatable given Nylander already is a two-time 60 point guy (in his first two seasons) who is just 21 and will likely continue to improve for a couple seasons more. Furthermore, for a contender those picks they would lose in compensation to Toronto aren't likely to be all that valuable (obviously a bottom-feeder team wouldn't offer-sheet Nylander because they would risk losing a first-overall pick).

What is holding this scenario back is that there needs to be a team who is a contender (so those forfeited picks are low) who has a pressing need for a player with Nylander's skill-set and can throw around $8,118,641+ to offer-sheet Nylander and still have enough cap-space left to keep their own players under contract. That hypothetical team having a vested interest in weakening the Leafs (eg. a division or conference rival) wouldn't hurt as motivation for the offer-sheet either. The fact that there doesn't seem to be a lot of teams out there that tick all these boxes is why we haven't seen an offer-sheet yet, and why offer-sheets in general are so rare.

I agree completly, noone will offersheet Nylander, based on the conditions.

 

[Flyerfan52]

Leafs needed a centreman with Bozak departing. The idea that the Leafs would’ve been hunky-dory is just wrong. Outside of the NHL our centre depth is not very good. After Matthews and Kadri the nex people in line to play at 3C were Lindholm who’s unproven, and Gauthier who’s this close to being s bust.

To expand on my previous post, for the Leafs to acquire a Tavares level worthy defenseman they’d have to gamble that one of the big name free agent defensemen make it to free agency next year, or they pay through the nose via trade and end up losing Nylander, Marner, or Matthews anyway, but with the added bonus of not having Tavares and suddenly having the teams major strength becoming merely average.

As for your prediction, the only people regretting that the Leafs got Tavares are this that lost out on him.

Bozak signed for $5 million x 3 in St.L. If the Leafs had kept him rather than signing Tavares that would leave $6 million which usually buys a dang good defenseman to bolster their makeshift blueline. That's without weakening the center depth they had last season at all.

 

[hector morrison]

In a salary cap league, the depth of their pockets is largely irrelevant when it comes to the product on the ice.

The Leafs can offer other revenue sources through corporate affiliation. As well as a successful team making players names/faces valuable marketing tools ( see' Mich Marner).The contract is only part of the selling job.
Tavares being the most recent example,he reportedly turned down more money to play elsewhere . Why is that? Obviously ,money wasn't his main motivation. I think the prospect of winning and getting his name on the Stanley Cup might have been part of the reason....you know for that 'immortality' factor..To a hockey player,that is as close to immortality as one can get! Break out your thesaurus if you don't like the word!

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Nylander would never sign an offersheet with anyone.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins.
How did that work for Edmonton?

If you think that trio is comparable to the Leafs trio, there's something really wrong with your talent evaluation.

Edmonton can't run those three (even if they did it is worse than the Leafs 3) because they have garbage winger depth, and don't have even one of Marner/Nylander on their wings.

 

[justafan22]

The leafs match anything under 7.5 million

 

[HOPE]

Are you drunk ????? Nylander is as good a player as any new player

what does that even mean... lol

if you read what i said, i said Nylander isn't worth ANY offersheet that the leafs WOULDN'T match.

people always forget the 5 years limit in the calculation and getting a number where its a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, leafs would easily match that. If The NHL would want more hostile offers they would change the formula and don't make you divide the 7 years X the AVV by 5 years and they would also upgrade the compensation chart as the cap go up. if both of these don't change we will likely never see hostile offer unless you wanna overpay a role player.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

what does that even mean... lol

if you read what i said, i said Nylander isn't worth ANY offersheet that the leafs WOULDN'T match.

people always forget the 5 years limit in the calculation and getting a number where its a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, leafs would easily match that. If The NHL would want more hostile offers they would change the formula and don't make you divide the 7 years X the AVV by 5 years and they would also upgrade the compensation chart as the cap go up. if both of these don't change we will likely never see hostile offer unless you wanna overpay a role player.

This part is shocking, there are people posting this and others just ignoring it to say Nylander could be had for a 1st, 2nd and a 3rd for a 7 year contract.

If you want Nylander you would have to offer 4 1st rounder or offer a short term contract.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Lol if an offer sheet was going to happen, it would have happened already.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Bozak signed for $5 million x 3 in St.L. If the Leafs had kept him rather than signing Tavares that would leave $6 million which usually buys a dang good defenseman to bolster their makeshift blueline. That's without weakening the center depth they had last season at all.

Sounds good! Show me which defenseman the Leafs could've signed for $6 million this off-season.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Sounds good! Show me which defenseman the Leafs could've signed for $6 million this off-season.

6 million is pretty much high end 2nd pairing money(Jake Gardiner type of guy). So basically the choice is Bozak + Gardiner v. Tavares + Carrick. I love Gardiner but that's an extremely easy decision.

 

[tony d]

He'd be a good add to any team, still does any team risk giving up 4 1sts for him? If I'm a NHL GM I consider it.

 

[FerrisRox]

The Leafs can offer other revenue sources through corporate affiliation.

No they can't.

Tavares being the most recent example,he reportedly turned down more money to play elsewhere . Why is that?

Because he wanted to play at home and he liked the position the team was in. It has nothing to do with the "depth of their pockets" which, as I said, is largely irrelevant.

 

[FerrisRox]

RNH is a bust.

This is an idiotic claim.

 

[Seanaconda]

This is an idiotic claim.

Hopkins finally got told to play offense instead of being the only responsible forward if he ever gets to run a pp again his points will sky rocket.

If he gets the job as mcdavids winger he will score an insane amount too but he won't be a center