Speculation: Offer Sheet for Dougie Hamilton: worth doing?

[lidstromiscool]

A 7.3 million offer would ‘only’ cost 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd round pick. Thats not terrible for a young first pairing right handed defenseman. Holland would never do it, but I would think long and hard about that. If nothing else, it would force Boston to make some tough roster decisions.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

A 7.3 million offer would ‘only’ cost 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd round pick. Thats not terrible for a young first pairing right handed defenseman. Holland would never do it, but I would think long and hard about that. If nothing else, it would force Boston to make some tough roster decisions.

The Wings CAN'T do it. Not that they would because that's not how they operate, but they can't. They don't have their third round pick to give up.

 

[Winger98]

You're forgetting the fact that they still have to fill out their roster. Signing Hamilton for 6.5 would force them to do more than just move Eriksson. With Eriksson completely gone they'd still have only about 8mil for 8 roster spots-- all their UFAs including Soderberg are as good as gone, and there'd be little hope for being able to keep Lucic once his contract expires. The knock-on effect would impact more than just a single player on their roster

Once they re-sign Hamilton they have 10 forwards (including Savard, so 9), 5 D, and a #1 goalie. They could fill their #6D from within, probably with Morrow. Subban could probably step in and back up Rask, or they get some bargain basement guy out of free agency. Campbell and Paille were nice fourth liners for them, but guys like Khoklachev and Spooner are looking pretty close to making the jump, and Bergeron and Marchand are young enough to handle an increase in their PK time. They could re-sign Hamilton for $6.5m, promote a couple of kids to fill out the top9, and then deal Ericsson for the room to troll the end of summer free agency market to fill out the bottom three or four spots.

I think Boston has just reached that point where they're going to slip back a bit and need to re-load with youth, and shed some vets whose deals are getting too cumbersome. Letting Hamilton walk for a handful of picks isn't going to help them beyond the next couple of years, and it's questionable it does that considering the hole he leaves on their blueline.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I just saw on Spector's that Dougie Hamilton could be the most likely to receive an offer sheet. Speculation is that he will be looking for Drew Doughty money ($6.5 mill per).

I know that Holland is offer-sheet adverse, but this could instantly improve our D, while hurting a division rival.

Worth doing?

First off Holland doesn't do offer sheets. He would do the honorable thing and try to acquire Hamilton via trade for Jakub Kindl, Teemu Pulkkinen and a first.

The bigger issue is if we give the B's a boatload of first round picks odds are good they will be very high first round picks as we are poised to go through a pretty hardcore rebuild during the time Boston would be all up in our base, killing our first round pick dudez.

In short I am not a fan of how milquetoast Kenneh is but this is probably the one time when having a chicken **** GM is a good thing. Let's crater hard core and get cheap elite talent that doesn't cost us anything.

 

[Bench]

It's a bad idea. There's no way to know what kind of team the Wings will be in 4 years.

Talented young player leaves Boston for a bunch of 1st round picks... what could go wrong?



And if you want to handcuff Boston, that's cool, but they'll just ship out their overpaid players to other teams.

 

[Bench]

First off Holland doesn't do offer sheets.

This myth needs to die. I see it all the time. He was going to offer one to Shea Weber.

http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2012/07/red_wings_pursued_defenseman_s.html

The Red Wings contacted one of Weber's agents, Kevin Epp, and had numerous conversations, but the talks did not reach the stage where they were able to tender a formal offer. Weber reportedly visited Detroit, San Jose, the New York Rangers and Philadelphia. He chose to pursue a deal with the Flyers.

He'll offer sheet guys that want out and are very good. But he's not going to spite offer a guy just to handcuff a team.

 

[abbbaron]

Once they re-sign Hamilton they have 10 forwards (including Savard, so 9), 5 D, and a #1 goalie. They could fill their #6D from within, probably with Morrow. Subban could probably step in and back up Rask, or they get some bargain basement guy out of free agency. Campbell and Paille were nice fourth liners for them, but guys like Khoklachev and Spooner are looking pretty close to making the jump, and Bergeron and Marchand are young enough to handle an increase in their PK time. They could re-sign Hamilton for $6.5m, promote a couple of kids to fill out the top9, and then deal Ericsson for the room to troll the end of summer free agency market to fill out the bottom three or four spots.

I think Boston has just reached that point where they're going to slip back a bit and need to re-load with youth, and shed some vets whose deals are getting too cumbersome. Letting Hamilton walk for a handful of picks isn't going to help them beyond the next couple of years, and it's questionable it does that considering the hole he leaves on their blueline.

No one in Boston thinks Subban is ready-- they'd be riding Rask extra hard and praying he doesn't get injured. I'm assuming Spooner and Connolly stay on the roster and their new deals will be in the 1mil territory each. Next guy on their depth chart is probably Khokhlachev and they'll need to bring him up whether he's ripe or not. So that'd cover 12 forwards and ~40mil in cap.
I was assuming Morrow will be on the roster because he pretty much has to be, ditto for Miller. So add in Hamilton at 6.5mil and there's 6 blueliners for ~22.5mil. Add in their goaltending and they're more than 1mil over the cap as it currently stands (and will probably be up against the cap depending what the PA agrees to, it's all iffy at this point) with 2 roster spots yet to fill. They're probably not bringing back Eriksson no matter what, so I'd imagine he'd be the logical player they try to move, problem is he has a NTC. And even if he waives it, with him gone they'll have ~3mil for 3 spots (probably all youth) and be in a difficult position again next summer. Lucic and Kelly also have NTCs. Boston has little leverage for trading those guys as it is, and lesser so if their hand is forced.

Committing that big to Hamilton so soon would force them to through a youth movement, and this for an organization that hasn't drafted particularly well outside the 1st round (another reason why Chiarelli was booted). If they're prepared to roll with their youth, as they started doing last season and missed the playoffs, then yeah they match such an offer. I don't think it's so automatic though.

 

[sarcastro]

Wings can't acquire a third and make themselves eligible for those offer sheets, right? IIRC it has to be all your own original picks. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

There are probably movable players on this team that could net them a third, if that were the only obstacle.

 

[Bench]

Wings can't acquire a third and make themselves eligible for those offer sheets, right? IIRC it has to be all your own original picks. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

There are probably movable players on this team that could net them a third, if that were the only obstacle.

Unfortunately, your first gut feeling is correct. It can only be your pick.

But Boston matches anything that's not the max payout in 1st round picks, so it's kind of an academic exercise.

 

[sarcastro]

Unfortunately, your first gut feeling is correct. It can only be your pick.

But Boston matches anything that's not the max payout in 1st round picks, so it's kind of an academic exercise.

I don't know if they can match 6.5m a year. And if they do, it will wreck their overall roster. Either way, I win.

If I had the picks I would definitely try it. But we don't have them. So that's the end of the thread, really.

 

[Laser Rayzor]

I don't know if they can match 6.5m a year. And if they do, it will wreck their overall roster. Either way, I win.

If I had the picks I would definitely try it. But we don't have them. So that's the end of the thread, really.

According to Wiki the Ducks own our 3rd round pick this year:

The Detroit Red Wings' third-round pick will go to the Anaheim Ducks as the result of a trade on March 2, 2015 that sent Rene Bourque, William Karlsson and a second-round pick in 2015 to Columbus in exchange for James Wisniewski and this pick.[36]
Columbus previously acquired this pick as the result of a trade on June 28, 2014 that sent Edmonton's third-round pick in 2014 to Detroit in exchange for a third-round pick in 2014 and this pick.[45]

I wonder what Anaheim would want/need for us if they wanted to get the pick back.

Edit: Nevermind, forgot we didn't have our 2nd either

 

[Bench]

I don't know if they can match 6.5m a year. And if they do, it will wreck their overall roster. Either way, I win.

They could easily move Kelly and Eriksson, both guys that have larger contracts than value to the team. Or Marchand, who they probably have soured on.

There's really zero incentive for them to let go their best young defender for a couple draft picks. They could probably get those same picks just shipping out their excess baggage that I listed above.

Edit: BTW the Wings should snap up Eriksson cheap. I hope they explore it. He's still a great two-way wing and his production isn't going to warrant a massive contract going into his 30s.

 

[Actual Thought*]

I think they would be more likely to trade Mrazek than acquire Hamilton via offer sheet. That is to say I think it is very unlikely.

 

[sarcastro]

According to Wiki the Ducks own our 3rd round pick this year:



I wonder what Anaheim would want/need for us if they wanted to get the pick back.

Edit: Nevermind, forgot we didn't have our 2nd either

This year's picks don't matter since they can't offer sheet anyone until July. They dealt next year's third in the Cole trade, I believe. This year's third went for Turgeon last year IIRC.

 

[Tatar Shots]

They could easily move Kelly and Eriksson, both guys that have larger contracts than value to the team. Or Marchand, who they probably have soured on.

There's really zero incentive for them to let go their best young defender for a couple draft picks. They could probably get those same picks just shipping out their excess baggage that I listed above.

Edit: BTW the Wings should snap up Eriksson cheap. I hope they explore it. He's still a great two-way wing and his production isn't going to warrant a massive contract going into his 30s.

I doubt they would. Trading a good player within their conference just cost Boston a playoff spot. Can't imagine they would make the same mistake again.

 

[Tatar Shots]

This year's picks don't matter since they can't offer sheet anyone until July. They dealt next year's third in the Cole trade, I believe. This year's third went for Turgeon last year IIRC.

Next years third was moved for Zidlicky.

 

[PullHard]

I don't understand the "but we don't have the pick so this thread is pointless" posts

The site's population is like 95% fans, 5% people somehow involved in upper levels of hockey, and we are all just posting on the internet, everything said on this website is "pointless"

Also it wouldn't be impossible to get our pick back, in fact, it could make sense (moving a decent D prospect + a later pick to get our pick back and then offersheeting Hamilton, meaning it would be 1st, 2nd, 3rd, ~5th 2016 and D prospect for Hamilton) and if Boston matches well then we could just try to improve on the prospect moved with our reacquired pick.

I would think arguing that discussing an offer sheet is pointless because Holland would never do it holds a bit more water

 

[Actual Thought*]

I don't understand the "but we don't have the pick so this thread is pointless" posts

The site's population is like 95% fans, 5% people somehow involved in upper levels of hockey, and we are all just posting on the internet, everything said on this website is "pointless"

Also it wouldn't be impossible to get our pick back, in fact, it could make sense (moving a decent D prospect + a later pick to get our pick back and then offersheeting Hamilton, meaning it would be 1st, 2nd, 3rd, ~5th 2016 and D prospect for Hamilton) and if Boston matches well then we could just try to improve on the prospect moved with our reacquired pick.

I would think arguing that discussing an offer sheet is pointless because Holland would never do it holds a bit more water

He wouldn't do it because it would be stupid. The only way it would work is if you massively overpaid. So you would lose a bunch of picks and bury yourself in cap hell. The conversation is truly pointless. We don't have the picks and it would be dumb.

 

[PullHard]

He wouldn't do it because it would be stupid. The only way it would work is if you massively overpaid. So you would lose a bunch of picks and bury yourself in cap hell. The conversation is truly pointless. We don't have the picks and it would be dumb.

Multiple people in this thread have already made pretty good arguments to the contrary, unless you think having Hamilton from ages ~22-27 at ~$7M (while only giving up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd for him) is "bury[ing] yourself in cap hell" and "dumb"

 

[Dotter]

No thank you.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Multiple people in this thread have already made pretty good arguments to the contrary, unless you think having Hamilton from ages ~22-27 at ~$7M (while only giving up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd for him) is "bury[ing] yourself in cap hell" and "dumb"

There is no way in hell that Boston lets Hamilton walk on a 7M offer sheet. They have other cap-related moves that they would make LONG before they do that.

 

[Actual Thought*]

Multiple people in this thread have already made pretty good arguments to the contrary, unless you think having Hamilton from ages ~22-27 at ~$7M (while only giving up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd for him) is "bury[ing] yourself in cap hell" and "dumb"

Multiple people make the argument that Holland is a terrible GM every day. People argue we should tank for 10 years too. That doesn't make it true. If the deal is reasonable they will match. Therefore you would have to make an unreasonable offer in order to acquire him. That is why these things almost never happen. It isn't because GMs play nice.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

They could easily move Kelly and Eriksson, both guys that have larger contracts than value to the team. Or Marchand, who they probably have soured on.

There's really zero incentive for them to let go their best young defender for a couple draft picks. They could probably get those same picks just shipping out their excess baggage that I listed above.

Edit: BTW the Wings should snap up Eriksson cheap. I hope they explore it. He's still a great two-way wing and his production isn't going to warrant a massive contract going into his 30s.

I agree in terms of going after Eriksson. Though primary concern is that was a head injury that has really hurt his production. Now it was looking like he just wasn't a great fit with Boston before that, but something to keep in mind in terms of buying anything on Eriksson. There is certainly a risk equation to it since the massive head injury he suffered and the drop off in play since.

 

[Bench]

I agree in terms of going after Eriksson. Though primary concern is that was a head injury that has really hurt his production. Now it was looking like he just wasn't a great fit with Boston before that, but something to keep in mind in terms of buying anything on Eriksson. There is certainly a risk equation to it since the massive head injury he suffered and the drop off in play since.

Wings can go for the record for most Swedes on LTIR?

Eriksson was actually hot at the end of last season. One of the bright spots of the sinking Boston ship. He's obviously not part of their future core, he's turning 30, and he's got 1 year left on his deal. He'll be moved and I think he's a glove fit for Wings hockey. Admired his game for years. He's got that understated quality where he's always in the right position and has body position on his opponents. He reminds me of Zetterberg that way. He won't overpower you, he's just thinking a little faster than you.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Wings can go for the record for most Swedes on LTIR?

Eriksson was actually hot at the end of last season. One of the bright spots of the sinking Boston ship. He's obviously not part of their future core, he's turning 30, and he's got 1 year left on his deal. He'll be moved and I think he's a glove fit for Wings hockey. Admired his game for years. He's got that understated quality where he's always in the right position and has body position on his opponents. He reminds me of Zetterberg that way. He won't overpower you, he's just thinking a little faster than you.

I think the only way we get Eriksson is if Franzen goes on LTIR

Could you imagine Franzen/Zetterberg/Eriksson though?