Offensive Production Rate (OPR), A stat to show the offensive share of a player for their team!

BlueBull

Habby Man
Oct 11, 2017
1,696
1,434
Vancouver Island
I have been working over the last day with a simple new stat (formula wise) that may not be perfect, but it's a good stat to show how important a player is to their team.

OPR is a statistic Inspired by Baseball's Slugging%(SLG), On-Base % (OBP), and the stat that mixes the former two together (OPS). However it is very simple and very different from it and it's formula is one I made myself.

OPS's Formula is the following: Total Points x (1 + Team Points Percentage) / Team GF x (Number that depends on the teams success.*)
*Note: 1.05 if they missed the playoffs, 1.1 if they made the playoffs, 1.15 if they won their conference or the Presidents.
For Example: Tyler Seguin had 80 Points in 2018-19 Regular Season. His team had a .567 Pts% (1.567), made the playoffs as a WC (1.1), but only had 209 GF. Combining the stats, in the order shown in the formula, would give him a .660 OPS

The stat can show us who has produced the best share of scoring for their team while keeping the best players on the best teams near the top of the list.
For reference, here is the top 5 player's (That I have covered so far.) OPR during the 2018-19 Regular Season:
1. Nikita Kucherov .821
2. Connor McDavid .788
3. Leon Draisaitl .713
4. Brad Marchand .707
T5. Nathan MacKinnon .660
T5. Tyler Seguin .660
Honorable Mentions: Crosby .654, Kane .654, Gaudreau .651.

The highest OPR I have discovered so far is Wayne Gretzky's 1986 Season, when he got a 1.012, the only 1.000+ I have found thus far. (Mario Lemieux 199 in 1989 season ended up being a .974. If Pittsburgh was #1 in their Conference that year, like Edmonton was in 1986, he would have achieved a 1.020. Just another Gretzky record that could have been broken by Mario Lemieux.)

What do you think of this statistic?

Let's Discuss...
 
Last edited:

SniperHF

Rejecting Reports
Mar 9, 2007
42,631
21,042
Phoenix
Who moves up the most / drops the most if you stop factoring it by playoff miss/make/round wins ?


Might also be interesting to look at it 5 on 5 only. Though you'd be including that with an overall team number so not 100% apples to apples there.
 

BlueBull

Habby Man
Oct 11, 2017
1,696
1,434
Vancouver Island
Who moves up the most / drops the most if you stop factoring it by playoff miss/make/round wins ?
McDavid would be Number 1 while Kucherov would be Number 2 (.751 for McDavid, .714 for Kucherov.)

The Team Points% multiplier is important because it would otherwise put alot of "70-80 points on low scoring team" players near the top.
++++++++++++++++
Also, if anyone asks about what if they get traded mid season, The team statistics in the formula are regarded based of which team was the last one they played for that season (ie. Matt Duchene is a .481 for Columbus, Not a .422 for Ottawa.)
 

BlueBull

Habby Man
Oct 11, 2017
1,696
1,434
Vancouver Island
New OPR Log:
I Have Considered the value of this OPR. If you had an OPR of about .500, you were an All Star level player that season, .600 means you were a superstar, .650 is Elite (9 players hit that in 2018-19) , and .700 is a legacy defining season. (4 players hit that in 2018-19)
However, .800 is even more insane (2 times in the last Decade.)
I have found 11 players (so far) who have acheived an OPR of .800 at least once in their Career:
In Order of highest Career Highs.
Rank Name Career High OPR (Year)
1. Wayne Gretzky 1.012 (1986)
2. Mario Lemieux .974 (1989)
3. Jaromir Jagr .871 (2006)
4. Joe Sakic .864 (2001)
5. Gordie Howe .842 (1957)
6. Joe Thornton .832 (2006)
7. Phil Esposito .824 (1974)
8. Nikita Kucherov .821 (2019)
9. Alex Ovechkin .814 (2008)
T10. Sidney Crosby .811 (2007)
T10. Patrick Kane .811 (2016)

If you think there are more players with an .800 OPR, you can calculate it yourself using my formula. (Make sure to use the Team GF excluding the singular goal put it in the box score when a team wins in a shootout post-2006. It makes i.e. 2019 Kucherov an .821 instead of an .806)

Some that I found that were close include McDavid's .788 in 2019, Orr's .787 in 1970, and Malkin's .778 in 2009.
 
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supsens

Registered User
Oct 6, 2013
6,577
2,000
New OPR Log:
I Have Considered the value of this OPR. If you had an OPR of about .500, you were an All Star level player that season, .600 means you were a superstar, .650 is Elite (9 players hit that in 2018-19) , and .700 is a legacy defining season. (4 players hit that in 2018-19)
However, .800 is even more insane (2 times in the last Decade.)
I have found 11 players (so far) who have acheived an OPR of .800 at least once in their Career:
In Order of highest Career Highs.
Rank Name Career High OPR (Year)
1. Wayne Gretzky 1.012 (1986)
2. Mario Lemieux .974 (1989)
3. Jaromir Jagr .871 (2006)
4. Joe Sakic .864 (2001)
5. Gordie Howe .842 (1957)
6. Joe Thornton .832 (2006)
7. Phil Esposito .824 (1974)
8. Nikita Kucherov .821 (2019)
9. Alex Ovechkin .814 (2008)
T10. Sidney Crosby .811 (2007)
T10. Patrick Kane .811 (2016)

If you think there are more players with an .800 OPR, you can calculate it yourself using my formula. (Make sure to use the Team GF excluding the singular goal put it in the box score when a team wins in a shootout post-2006. It makes i.e. 2019 Kucherov an .821 instead of an .806)

Some that I found that were close include McDavid's .788 in 2019, Orr's .787 in 1970, and Malkin's .778 in 2009.

I am a little lost here. What does your stat show? Highest points on the best team?
Most stats tell a tale. What are you going for?
Edit read it a bit more.

Basicly Highest point% on the best team and before doing any math Im guessing you have to be first in your confrence to put up a big score and make the top of the list.

Edit again.
You could be first in the east but 3rd or fourt overall and still be gettin bonus points so I am not too sure your getting a acurate read on some guys. It seems you added first place and conference winner just to inflate a few players but they don't really have more value.
Why not just do Highest point% on conference winners and avoid all the math? If the random 80 point players keep showing up without bonus multiplyrrs it could be because you are taking two random numbers that have no real bearing on each other and calling it a stat.
 
Last edited:

BlueBull

Habby Man
Oct 11, 2017
1,696
1,434
Vancouver Island
I am a little lost here. What does your stat show? Highest points on the best team?
Most stats tell a tale. What are you going for?
Edit read it a bit more.

Basicly Highest point% on the best team and before doing any math Im guessing you have to be first in your confrence to put up a big score and make the top of the list.

Edit again.
You could be first in the east but 3rd or fourt overall and still be gettin bonus points so I am not too sure your getting a acurate read on some guys. It seems you added first place and conference winner just to inflate a few players but they don't really have more value.
Why not just do Highest point% on conference winners and avoid all the math? If the random 80 point players keep showing up without bonus multiplyrrs it could be because you are taking two random numbers that have no real bearing on each other and calling it a stat.
Well, the "/Goals For" Tries to give good players on bad teams a chance (McDavid has a .788 still.), and I originally only did the bonus multiplier for #1 in the NHL. (Hence, Kucherov is an .821 regardless, but Gaudreau could be a .623 instead of a .651...)

The best teams don't always have the best OPR results, Calgary's best OPR in 1988 (won president's trophy) was Hakan Loob, who had 106 points yet only a .508 OPR.

It honestly might be a good stat to compliment +/-.

The stat may be a bit WIP... but that means I can polish the stat up a bit.
Edit: I'm working on mixing +/- into that to replace the random extra bonus you get from team success. So far, it looks like (first 3 formula calculations) x 1 + (Plus-Minus / 500) = OPR.
This Made McDavid the leading OPR getter in 2019 with a .755 and #2 being Kucherov with a .749.
Gretzky's 1986 season goes from a 1.012 to a 1.005, so there is still a 1,000 OPR, even with the stat change.
The calcuations are now slightly more based on how good a player is.
 
Last edited:

supsens

Registered User
Oct 6, 2013
6,577
2,000
Well, the "/Goals For" Tries to give good players on bad teams a chance (McDavid has a .788 still.), and I originally only did the bonus multiplier for #1 in the NHL. (Hence, Kucherov is an .821 regardless, but Gaudreau could be a .623 instead of a .651...)

The best teams don't always have the best OPR results, Calgary's best OPR in 1988 (won president's trophy) was Hakan Loob, who had 106 points yet only a .508 OPR.

It honestly might be a good stat to compliment +/-.

The stat may be a bit WIP... but that means I can polish the stat up a bit.
Edit: I'm working on mixing +/- into that to replace the random extra bonus you get from team success. So far, it looks like (first 3 formula calculations) x 1 + (Plus-Minus / 500) = OPR.
This Made McDavid the leading OPR getter in 2019 with a .755 and #2 being Kucherov with a .749.
Gretzky's 1986 season goes from a 1.012 to a 1.005, so there is still a 1,000 OPR, even with the stat change.
The calcuations are now slightly more based on how good a player is.

First I would like to thank you for not being upset that I questioned or replied negatively, second I am trying to get into the advanced stats but I always get lost.

My interpretation of the stat so far whent as follows
First you tried to equate goals scored with winning but the numbers did not reflect who should be winning.(this is because the amount of goals a team scores does not reflect weather the team was good) so you had to hand pick winners and assign them extra points to balance this out? Now you are working on adding plus minus to represent success instead of a generic 1 for bad 1+ for good and 1++ for really good. That seems like a more accurate way to assign success!

Am I doing good or way off?

The problem I have with it is you have no baseline/reason for the stat.
In the end if a player were to score all the goals and his team wins all the games he should batting 1000 and no one should ever be able to go over 1000. Or like PDO if the baseline is 1000(because all shots are a goal or a save) you have a solid baseline and mathematical reason for the number. So on a perfect team a guy that gets all the goals scores 1500 and a guy with no points gets 500.
You seem like your trying to get two random numbers together and force a connection that isn’t there
You have to find a way that 1000 or 1500 is the perfect outcome all goals and all wins and work backwards from that.
At least I think, then it can be used across all teams and all players
 
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Canadiens1958

Registered User
Nov 30, 2007
20,020
2,773
Lake Memphremagog, QC.
I have been working over the last day with a simple new stat (formula wise) that may not be perfect, but it's a good stat to show how important a player is to their team.

OPR is a statistic Inspired by Baseball's Slugging%(SLG), On-Base % (OBP), and the stat that mixes the former two together (OPS). However it is very simple and very different from it and it's formula is one I made myself.

OPS's Formula is the following: Total Points x (1 + Team Points Percentage) / Team GF x (Number that depends on the teams success.*)
*Note: 1.05 if they missed the playoffs, 1.1 if they made the playoffs, 1.15 if they won their conference or the Presidents.
For Example: Tyler Seguin had 80 Points in 2018-19 Regular Season. His team had a .567 Pts% (1.567), made the playoffs as a WC (1.1), but only had 209 GF. Combining the stats, in the order shown in the formula, would give him a .660 OPS

The stat can show us who has produced the best share of scoring for their team while keeping the best players on the best teams near the top of the list.
For reference, here is the top 5 player's (That I have covered so far.) OPR during the 2018-19 Regular Season:
1. Nikita Kucherov .821
2. Connor McDavid .788
3. Leon Draisaitl .713
4. Brad Marchand .707
T5. Nathan MacKinnon .660
T5. Tyler Seguin .660
Honorable Mentions: Crosby .654, Kane .654, Gaudreau .651.

The highest OPR I have discovered so far is Wayne Gretzky's 1986 Season, when he got a 1.012, the only 1.000+ I have found thus far. (Mario Lemieux 199 in 1989 season ended up being a .974. If Pittsburgh was #1 in their Conference that year, like Edmonton was in 1986, he would have achieved a 1.020. Just another Gretzky record that could have been broken by Mario Lemieux.)

What do you think of this statistic?

Let's Discuss...

So you are proposing using baseball stats to describe the value of a hockey skater.

Baseball has a clear demarcation between offence and defence. Players play one or the other. Also you have the intentional walk. No equivalent to playing without the puck. No shoot-out - which at a team level you seem to incorporate but individually you seem to omit.

Hockey does not have a demarcation between offence and defence. Both are played simultaniously and playing without the puck impacts both.

Needs alot of work.
 

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