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Hockey Outsider

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Not sure where to post this, maybe this is the most appropriate thread.

In his last ten games, McDavid has 29 points (9 G + 20 A). Adjusted for era, I think this might be one of the greatest ten game stretches of all time.

The best stretch for either Gretzky or Lemieux that I could find was 40 points in ten games for Gretzky in 1984. Making some reasonable era adjustments, that works out to right around 29 points today.

Are there any other candidates for best era-adjusted ten games?
 
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Professor What

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Sep 16, 2020
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Not sure where to post this, maybe this is the most appropriate thread.

In his last ten games, McDavid has 29 points (9 G + 20 A). Adjusted for era, I think this might be one of the greatest ten game stretches of all time.

The best stretch for either Gretzky or Lemieux that I could find was 40 points in ten games for Gretzky in 1984. Making some reasonable era adjustments, that works out to right around 29 points today.

Are there any other candidates for best era-adjusted ten games?

You know what I find really crazy? It's an extremely tall task, but if he gets 12 points in the next three games, he'd actually average a full 2PPG for the season. The odds are very high that he won't do it since that's an average of 4PPG over that time, but the thing is, he's gotten four points three times in the span you're referring to. I'd dare say crazier things have happened.

Also, his current pace for the 53 games played this season would result in 155 points over a full 82 games. Interestingly enough, that would tie the record for the most points in a season by anyone other than Gretzky or Lemieux. Considering when he's doing this is mind blowing. We're witnessing a very special player right now.
 

BenchBrawl

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Jul 26, 2010
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The best stretch of hockey I have ever seen was Mario returning from cancer in 1993. It's not just that he went on a gigantic run, but Pittsburgh won 17 straight games in that stretch, and didn't lose for 21 games in a row (with one tie and 20 wins), so his run was in synchro with team results.

What McDavid did in the last 10 games is all-time great. If Gretzky can't beat it after adjustment, probably a better run doesn't exist, number-wise.
 
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Czech Your Math

I am lizard king
Jan 25, 2006
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Not sure where to post this, maybe this is the most appropriate thread.

In his last ten games, McDavid has 29 points (9 G + 20 A). Adjusted for era, I think this might be one of the greatest ten game stretches of all time.

The best stretch for either Gretzky or Lemieux that I could find was 40 points in ten games for Gretzky in 1984. Making some reasonable era adjustments, that works out to right around 29 points today.

Are there any other candidates for best era-adjusted ten games?

Jagr had 26 in 10 in 1999. Lemieux had 33 in 10 in 1996 and 37 in 10 in 1989. These all should be pretty close to the two you mentioned, but it would depend how you are adjusting for era.
 
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The Panther

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Sign at the subway station entrance near my apartment. Doesn't really inspire a feeling of safety...
186541701_10158884440955196_616080267942886441_n.jpg
 
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Hockey Outsider

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@GlitchMarner has been doing a series of polls on the main board, separately ranking the greatest goal-scorers and playmakers of all-time. As is usually the case for the main board, most of the votes are going to players active in 1980 onwards. But it got me thinking - if you were to put together a list of the top twenty goal-scorers and playmakers, how much overlap would there be?

Here's a quick attempt (without a ton of thought or effort put into it):

upload_2022-1-15_19-32-0.png


I don't want to start quibbling over why I had, say, Selanne at 13th instead of 11th or 16th. Ask me again tomorrow and my list will look different.

But the question is - who would appear in the top ten (or top twenty) on both lists? I think it's obvious that Gretzky, Lemieux and Howe should be in everyone's top ten. Jagr is in my top ten for both lists (but I suspect many will have him lower than I do on the goal-scorers list). Esposito was a much better goal-scorer than playmaker, but I think he slips into the top twenty in the latter category.

Other possibilities could include Dionne (a late cut on the assists list), Lafleur (a late cut on both lists), and Mikita (underrated as a goal-scorer, always in Hull's shadow). A bit farther down and you'd have other balanced scorers like Morenz (am I underrating him in either category?), Sakic, Yzerman, Lindsay, and Kane. Am I missing someone obvious?
 
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Johnny Engine

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Jul 29, 2009
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@GlitchMarner has been doing a series of polls on the main board, separately ranking the greatest goal-scorers and playmakers of all-time. As is usually the case for the main board, most of the votes are going to players active in 1980 onwards. But it got me thinking - if you were to put together a list of the top twenty goal-scorers and playmakers, how much overlap would there be?

Here's a quick attempt (without a ton of thought or effort put into it):

View attachment 498775

I don't want to start quibbling over why I had, say, Selanne at 13th instead of 11th or 16th. Ask me again tomorrow and my list will look different.

But the question is - who would appear in the top ten (or top twenty) on both lists? I think it's obvious that Gretzky, Lemieux and Howe should be in everyone's top ten. Jagr is in my top ten for both lists (but I suspect many will have him lower than I do on the goal-scorers list). Esposito was a much better goal-scorer than playmaker, but I think he slips into the top twenty in the latter category.

Other possibilities could include Dionne (a late cut on the assists list), Lafleur (a late cut on both lists), and Mikita (underrated as a goal-scorer, always in Hull's shadow). A bit farther down and you'd have other balanced scorers like Morenz (am I underrating him in either category?), Sakic, Yzerman, Lindsay, and Kane. Am I missing someone obvious?

It's interesting that, outside of Esposito, everyone who appears on both lists is higher up on the playmaker chart. Do you think that says more about those players, or a greater number of specialist goal scorers (Ovechkin, Bossy, etc) than specialist playmakers (Oates, Thornton, etc)?
 

Michael Farkas

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Jun 28, 2006
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Man, those skates, gloves, and that stick...it's a wonder anybody scored any goals...

It's been a little while, is there an easy way to search newspaper archives via google or anything still? It seemed like google abandoned it or I forgot how to search properly...
 

jigglysquishy

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Jun 20, 2011
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I think Lemieux is the best goal scorer. Then Ovechkin, Bobby Hull.

It depends on best (who is the most effective goal scorer peak on peak) or greatest (most accomplished).

Lemieux has a good argument for best, but not for greatest.

Peak on peak, Lemieux, Gretzky, Bobby Hull are all good contenders. Throw in Howe, Bossy, Ovechkin and Brett Hull as just outside that group.

Greatest, I don't see how you can include Lemieux or Bossy or Brett Hull.
 

Michael Farkas

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I mean, Lemieux probably has a top-3 goals per game rate in history over ~1000 games (considerably more games than Bossy, on far worse teams, in a tougher scoring environment). He has a case for greatest and best for me. And I think he's best. There is no player that I've seen that is able to score in so many different ways like he has across multiple eras. That's my elevator pitch at least...
 

Staniowski

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Jan 13, 2018
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Man, those skates, gloves, and that stick...it's a wonder anybody scored any goals...

It's been a little while, is there an easy way to search newspaper archives via google or anything still? It seemed like google abandoned it or I forgot how to search properly...
Yeah....especially the gloves. My father (who's the same age as Henri Richard, and one year younger than Willie O'Ree) had a pair of gloves like that. Very hard and rigid....there were certainly limits to what they could do with them.
 

Staniowski

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Jan 13, 2018
3,508
3,068
The Maritimes
It depends on best (who is the most effective goal scorer peak on peak) or greatest (most accomplished).

Lemieux has a good argument for best, but not for greatest.

Peak on peak, Lemieux, Gretzky, Bobby Hull are all good contenders. Throw in Howe, Bossy, Ovechkin and Brett Hull as just outside that group.

Greatest, I don't see how you can include Lemieux or Bossy or Brett Hull.
When it comes to goal-scoring, Lemieux is the best, the greatest, and everything else.
 

wetcoast

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Nov 20, 2018
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I mean, Lemieux probably has a top-3 goals per game rate in history over ~1000 games (considerably more games than Bossy, on far worse teams, in a tougher scoring environment). He has a case for greatest and best for me. And I think he's best. There is no player that I've seen that is able to score in so many different ways like he has across multiple eras. That's my elevator pitch at least...


He definitely has a case but I guess it really depends on what exact criteria one is using.

For a while I have thought that Ovechkin is the best goal scorer in the history of the NHL but he is also, more or less, a specialist in that regard for quite a few years now and maybe if Mario had focused on goal scoring as much as Ovechkin he would have had more goals....?

My top 5 has Ovi, Mario, Bure then it switches around quite a bit for the last 2 spots but Bossy and Hull (2 in one deal there, is that cheating?) are usually there.

But is any top 5 list for goal scoring valid without Maurice Richard?
 

Hockey Outsider

Registered User
Jan 16, 2005
9,124
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I think Lemieux is the best goal scorer. Then Ovechkin, Bobby Hull.

I don't have any doubt about Lemieux being the best goal-scorer. If I needed to count on one player to score a goal to save my life, it would be Lemieux. He might be the most "era-proof" goal-scorer too. Teleport him into the 1920's, give him their shoddy equipment and force him to play 55 minutes a night? He'd still score the most. We already know what he did in the late 80's to early 2000's. Teleport him 50 years into the future to compete against Vietnamese cyborgs, and I'd still bet on him.

But greatest goal-scorer (looking at what they accomplished over the course of their careers)? I have a few players ahead of him. Maybe it's all semantics.
 

LightningStorm

Lightning/Mets/Vikings
Dec 19, 2008
3,042
2,041
Pacific NW, USA
For all of you who are NBA fans too, one thing I think the NHL does better is have the postseason MVP for the whole playoffs, not just the finals. In addition to discounting the other 3 rounds, the finals isn't always the hardest one for the champion (as I saw last year as a Bolts fan). Thinking about what Conn Smythe winners would've changed had it been finals MVP wasn't fun cause that would be a downgrade. But I did enjoy looking at what NBA FMVP winners would've been different had it been like the CS. When it comes to a player on a losing team winning it, my mindset has always been they have to be a pretty extreme outlier, i.e. 2003 Giguere. I'm mostly fine giving it to the player who played best on the team that won it all. Here's what I came up with:

2004 (Maybe): Billips had great finals and was the easy choice for FMVP, though I thought Hamilton was more consistent round to round. If I was forced to choose I'd go Hamilton, but neither would be a wrong choice.

2005: Ginobili over Duncan. I thought Manu should've won FMVP for similar reasons, as he shot the ball a lot more efficiently in the 2005 playoffs. And while Duncan and Bruce Bowen always got most of the credit for the Spurs great defense. it was Ginobili who also limited 2 great jump shooters in Ray Allen and Richard Hamilton that postseason.

2007: Duncan over Parker. After losing one in 2005, Duncan gets one back in 2007. Parker lit up the Cavs subpar backcourt in the finals, but that was a weak all around team who just happened to have one of the GOAT's in Lebron. In the first 3 round, which included much better teams in the Suns and Jazz, Duncan was their best player as usual.

2008: Garnett over Pierce. Allen was the rightful FMVP, as he shot the ball better and was much more consistent, in addition to shooting over 50% from 3. Plus there was a large sample size of 3's, cause this is Allen we're talking about here. For the playoffs though, Garnett would've definitely been my choice. Leading scorer and best defender on the Celtics.

2014 is another close one between Kawhi Leonard and the rest of the Spurs big 3. This is a case though where Kawhi being FMVP serves as the tiebreaker, since the finals did feature the Spurs best opponent in the 2 time defending champion Heat. Kawhi being their best player in that series is enough for him to win the close race for playoff MVP.

2015: Curry over Iguodala. Iggy is the one FMVP on this list who would get zero votes if it were for the whole playoffs. Lebron was the best player that postseason overall, though the gap between him and Curry wasn't large enough to give it to a player on the losing team, as Curry's superior efficiency shortens the gap. Though with Curry not being at his level he'd been at in the finals, I thought Lebron deserved FMVP in a losing effort, as the gap between him and the rest of the players was large. But as I said, for the whole playoffs his gap wasn't large enough from Curry for me to make the exception of giving the MVP to a player not on the winning team.

2018: Lebron over Durant. This is an example where Lebron was a clear outlier and was the playoff MVP despite losing in the finals. Averaged 34 pts, 9 rebounds and 9 assists a game on 54% shooting. Carried a mediocre Cavs team (who had traded Kyrie Irving to the Celtics in the offseason) to the finals. Durant didn't carry a load like that, as he and Curry were co-superstars on that Warriors team. Like 2003 Gigure, Lebron would've had this playoff MVP wrapped up after making it the finals, regardless of the finals result.

Fitting that of the 5 definite cases for me (2004 being a maybe), 3 of them (2005, 2008 & 2015) involved a player who I think shouldn't have even won finals MVP.

Do you guys like that the CS is for the whole playoffs and not just the finals?
 

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