Speculation: Off Season Thread Part II: Wake me up when September ends
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Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
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Legionnaire11
Registered User
FilthyScoresberg
Memphis 901
I agree. You gotta think he’s gonna play well above that paygrade.
Glad I got to break it first. I remember when I got to Uber him. I told him that we think he’s the future and that we have nothing but faith in him.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
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After those two contracts, I now fully expect 5yrs x $4.75M.
And if that happens, I tear down my old shrine to David Poile... so that I can build a bigger and more magnificent one.
FilthyScoresberg
Memphis 901
Makes you wonder if Ellis wouldn’t do the same thing. Obviously at a higher premium, but if he really wants to be a part of this team for the long run, I think he has to.
BigFatCat999
First Fubu and now Pred303. !@#$! you cancer
BigFatCat999
First Fubu and now Pred303. !@#$! you cancer
So the Preds have a combined 8.5 Million on a Vezina winning goalie and a guy who kept up with him.
sparkle twin
Registered User
King Weber
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Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
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I wonder if Poile gets a bonus from ownership for every $1M of unused cap space he has, though. I mean, not to harp on it exactly, but if you take today's signed roster and throw in a couple spares like Salomaki and Gaudreau they are going to have over $8M cap space. And that'll park them in the bottom half of the league, which is kind of unusual territory for a team that ostensibly pegs itself as one of the top contenders in the league.
The odds of Tolvanen hitting all his performance bonuses... I don't know, but the worst case is that chips about $2.5M more off it? No wait, it looks like his bonuses are piled more heavily in Year 2 and 3, so it's only ~$1M this year.
This is going to become another one of those Sweating Bullets posts, I guess. Because yeah, I'm already drawing up the blueprints to the bigger and better Poile Shrine, and like I posted somewhere yesterday, I totally get how this year's unused cap space directly translates into a totally secure 2019-20 cap picture too. They can give out a Pekka-friendly extension, they can fit Ellis at any sane price, they won't have any performance bonus roll-over into next year, they'll have a pretty good path to signing the other RFA's. Consider:
$8.5M cap space today... what about 2019-20?
- $3.5M for Ellis extension
+ $2M for a Pekka-friendly $5M extension
- $1.5M for new Sissons contract (say we pay him a little over $2M per)
-$1.5M for next Hartman bridge (ditto, if he has a great year!)
+$1M Stalberg buyout comes off the books
... leaving $5M for the "wildcard" Fiala extension and "other stuff"
Not counting any increase in the cap either. I'd be VERY willing to gamble that Fiala isn't quite ready for a $5M AAV contract next season, and that the cap will at least sneak up a little bit. Say Fiala goes to a 2x$2.5M bridge. That SHOULD still leave us with $3-4M in cap space next year, with all the same team locked up and no worries.
Soooo... to that I say we can STILL squeeze in Dan Hamhuis as our #5 defenseman on a 2x$2.5M contract and Poile shouldn't have to lose any sleep for 2019-20. There's room for another wing on the Poile Shrine here... not trying to be sacrilegious or anything, these latest signings have been fantastic, but... there's still room for one more miracle...
The odds of Tolvanen hitting all his performance bonuses... I don't know, but the worst case is that chips about $2.5M more off it? No wait, it looks like his bonuses are piled more heavily in Year 2 and 3, so it's only ~$1M this year.
This is going to become another one of those Sweating Bullets posts, I guess. Because yeah, I'm already drawing up the blueprints to the bigger and better Poile Shrine, and like I posted somewhere yesterday, I totally get how this year's unused cap space directly translates into a totally secure 2019-20 cap picture too. They can give out a Pekka-friendly extension, they can fit Ellis at any sane price, they won't have any performance bonus roll-over into next year, they'll have a pretty good path to signing the other RFA's. Consider:
$8.5M cap space today... what about 2019-20?
- $3.5M for Ellis extension
+ $2M for a Pekka-friendly $5M extension
- $1.5M for new Sissons contract (say we pay him a little over $2M per)
-$1.5M for next Hartman bridge (ditto, if he has a great year!)
+$1M Stalberg buyout comes off the books
... leaving $5M for the "wildcard" Fiala extension and "other stuff"
Not counting any increase in the cap either. I'd be VERY willing to gamble that Fiala isn't quite ready for a $5M AAV contract next season, and that the cap will at least sneak up a little bit. Say Fiala goes to a 2x$2.5M bridge. That SHOULD still leave us with $3-4M in cap space next year, with all the same team locked up and no worries.
Soooo... to that I say we can STILL squeeze in Dan Hamhuis as our #5 defenseman on a 2x$2.5M contract and Poile shouldn't have to lose any sleep for 2019-20. There's room for another wing on the Poile Shrine here... not trying to be sacrilegious or anything, these latest signings have been fantastic, but... there's still room for one more miracle...
Legionnaire11
Registered User
One of the 3rd pair d-men expires this season as well. IIRC two of them signed for two years and one (Bitetto?) Signed for one.
I too would like to see some of this unexpected cap space used to address the third pair.
I too would like to see some of this unexpected cap space used to address the third pair.
Dave is a killer
Dave's a Mess
David Poile, your cue ... NTC seems to be the sticking point and you know what I don't blame Ellis for holding out for that.
There's zero indication that's actually the case. The only place I've seen it mentioned is in a completely hypothetical speculation from Friedman in 31 Thoughts. When Friedman is reporting facts, he's top notch. When he's rambling on for 31 Thoughts filler speculation, he's as bad as anyone on HFBoards. Friedman himself even made it clear it was 100% uninformed speculation by saying: "...It's uncertain if that's holding up an extension for Ellis."
Maybe it is the hold-up, but no one knows yet.
Dave is a killer
Dave's a Mess
Well given the fact that he holds onto NTC's like they're Peanut Butter M&M's to a person on weight watchers, I'd say that that is the hold up ... Nashville Predators Contracts
Enoch
This is my boomstick
That also makes zero sense. You have no idea if Ellis is requesting an NTC/NMC and refusing to budge, you don't know if Poile is digging in and absolutely refusing to give out trade protection. Every single GM in the league would prefer to never give any trade clauses, apparently Poile is the only one that can actually get it done. And history has shown that Poile has been willing to give trade protection when necessary. Erat, Rinne,and Arnott all had a NMC off the top of my head. Almost positive Legwand and Dumont had an NTC as well.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
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I think the main thing is that there's really no urgency here. Ellis is already signed for the coming season. It might be "nice" if they agreed on an early extension, but it's no biggie either way. If the parameters of an agreement don't match yet on either side, then there's no real pressure for either side to make any concessions just yet.
I sure wouldn't give him an NTC or especially an NMC, but the Preds sure seem to run a tight ship and just as we had no clue the Hartman and Saros contracts were coming when they did, we have heard nary a whisper on the Ellis situation, beyond the initial statement of intent for them to talk. So all we can do is guess.
I sure wouldn't give him an NTC or especially an NMC, but the Preds sure seem to run a tight ship and just as we had no clue the Hartman and Saros contracts were coming when they did, we have heard nary a whisper on the Ellis situation, beyond the initial statement of intent for them to talk. So all we can do is guess.
Dave is a killer
Dave's a Mess
Fantasy top 50 defenseman rankings for 2018-19 ... NHL.com begs to differ, but I digress, and trust me, I love the way Ekholm plays, but he doesn't bring the offensive dynamic the other 3 do
LOL, fantasy rankings to judge defensemen. Ellis is the 4th best D-man on the team in my opinion, but he'd be a #3 at worst on most teams. The way he and Josi were dominated in the playoffs this year and against the Penguins last year does raise some concerns about them as a pairing when the games get tougher, however. In the end, I'd give him a limited NTC no problem as long as he's leaving some money on the table.
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Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
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Limited NTCs aren't too harmful. Let him pick 10 teams he can't be traded to in exchange for $1M if he wants. But I would still let him walk UFA before I'd give him the NMC.
(Not saying he is asking for this or that it's a sticking point in negotiations - again we have no clue - just what my stance would be).
Well, I wouldn't let him walk, but I'd be fine trading him if it came to that. Maybe grab Justin Faulk from the Canes to replace him afterwards.
I'm not a fan of hearsay, but screw it. There's no tangible knowledge of a NMC being the issue, but I will say that my friend with connections to the team said he thinks it is. He's gotten info that has proven itself to be right before, most recently he said about the potential Johansen extension that he loves playing here and wants to be here for a long time but expect him to be seen as overpaid because he won't be sold short on money. Which, 8 years at 8 mil is the case on both fronts. He has also known in cases what player injuries have been when no one else has. Such as him saying ahead of time that Ellis may miss a lot of last season because of the knee. He told me about the Fisher achilles injury before I saw anyone report it, etc. ANYWAYS, it's never foolproof but I'll speculate cautiously that he's correct on this. These things will start to be an issue because of the Seattle expansion draft.
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