Off-season regression?

[Tommigun]

So far:

Lost:
Trouba (1?D) [lost at least spiritually]
Stastny (2C)
Enström (4?D)
Armia (3W)
Mason (2G)

Gained:
Brossoit (“2”G)

That looks like trouble to me and we will certainly top rankings for teams that regressed the most in the off-season. This while Leafs signed Tavares, Vegas Stastny etc.

No matter how you slice and dice it this has been a horrible off-season and I’m pretty worried.

Am I overreacting?

Edit: 1 is bad off-season, 5 is great off-season. You can change your vote when new developments happen.

Click to read more...

 

[Jake Barnes]

Yes. You are most definitely over reacting.

-We were a 110 point team without Stastny.
-As much as I loved Armia, he is replaceable from within. Dano or Appleton, most likely.
-Trouba will re-sign. If it's an arbitrator awarded deal, he will play his butt off so he can cash in on his next deal; if he signs long term, then we're not losing him, are we?
-Mason wasn't really much of a factor when we truly needed him to be. He wasn't bad, but it wasn't like he was forcing Maurice to make any super hard decisions about our starting goaltending. Plus, our defense did a great job of limiting high danger chances.
-Toby is a loss for sure, but Niku looks ready to take that next step. Failing that, a top 4 of 8-44 and 57-33 should be fine.

So yeah, maybe other teams went out and got people. We didn't have to because we can fill most of those spots internally. The only question mark for me is how Niku performs in the Show. I expect somewhere between 106 and 112 points again this season and home ice in the playoffs.

 

[DRW204]

Toby played half the year last year and got benched in the playoffs. I think we are fine without him. Anyone who plays with Buff is usually ok and is carried by him for the most part. I liked what i saw from Morrow-Buff and he might take Niku under his wing too. We'll see.
Mason wasn't a factor last year, although I was hoping Helle's workload got reduced a bit this season. Being spelled by LB doesn't help.
Armia is replaceable internally imo
We were pacing for 110 pts with a top 5 PP w/o Stastny

 

[Tommigun]

Yes. You are most definitely over reacting.

-We were a 110 point team without Stastny.
-As much as I loved Armia, he is replaceable from within. Dano or Appleton, most likely.
-Trouba will re-sign. If it's an arbitrator awarded deal, he will play his butt off so he can cash in on his next deal; if he signs long term, then we're not losing him, are we?
-Mason wasn't really much of a factor when we truly needed him to be. He wasn't bad, but it wasn't like he was forcing Maurice to make any super hard decisions about our starting goaltending. Plus, our defense did a great job of limiting high danger chances.
-Toby is a loss for sure, but Niku looks ready to take that next step. Failing that, a top 4 of 8-44 and 57-33 should be fine.

So yeah, maybe other teams went out and got people. We didn't have to because we can fill most of those spots internally. The only question mark for me is how Niku performs in the Show. I expect somewhere between 106 and 112 points again this season and home ice in the playoffs.

You are right about Stastny in the regular season, but there’s no way we would have won the Nashville series without him. We then proceeded to lose to Vegas WITH him, but next time we meet he’ll be playing AGAINST us. That worries me a great deal.

We definitely downgraded on G. Yes Mason had an injury plagued season but that happens, there’s no reason to believe every season will be like that. I’d far rather have Mason backing up Helle than Brossoit and am quite concerned about our G as well.

There is a very real possibility that Trouba will get traded. If he doesn’t he’ll be playing for a team he doesn’t want to play for. I don’t think he can play at 100% mentally . It will also invariably create some kind of locker room distractions.

Armia is definitely replaceable but I am not convinced his replacement will be any better. We’ll see.

 

[mcpw]

Stastny wasn't on our team last season, and Trouba will almost certainly be on the team this season, as I don't think Chevy will do anything stupid.

I also won't rate the offseason while we still have RFAs, just like I didn't rate the last deadline two days before the fact, or our 2018 playoffs after game 4 vs Minnesota. That's just dumb.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I'll vote when I understand what the numbers represent. Is 5 good, as in I give this off season 5 out of 5 stars, or is 5 bad, as in maximum regression, couldn't have done any worse if we tried?

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Stastny wasn't on our team last season, and Trouba will almost certainly be on the team this season, as I don't think Chevy will do anything stupid.

I also won't rate the offseason while we still have RFAs, just like I didn't rate the last deadline two days before the fact, or our 2018 playoffs after game 4 vs Minnesota. That's just dumb.

He did say, rate the off season so far. Nobody will hold you accountable for any changes that happen after you vote.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Stastny of course was on the team last year and while he was only on for the last 1/4 of it he did contribute to the 110 point total. Say the Jets were a a good, very good team prior to his acquisition, sure, that is true.

They were a better team with him unquestionably, and they would not have beaten Nashville without him imo. Important part of the discussion.

 

[Tommigun]

Stastny wasn't on our team last season, and Trouba will almost certainly be on the team this season, as I don't think Chevy will do anything stupid.

I also won't rate the offseason while we still have RFAs, just like I didn't rate the last deadline two days before the fact, or our 2018 playoffs after game 4 vs Minnesota. That's just dumb.

You can change your vote

 

[mcpw]

Stastny of course was on the team last year and while he was only on for the last 1/4 of it he did contribute to the 110 point total. Say the Jets were a a good, very good team prior to his acquisition, sure, that is true.

They were a better team with him unquestionably, and they would not have beaten Nashville without him imo. Important part of the discussion.

It depends. If Stastny is not on our team, who is? Brassard? Hoffman? Plekanec? Nash? It was clear by all accounts that Chevy was going to make a somewhat bigger deadline deal, so if Stastny wouldn't have been on our team, somebody else would have.

 

[Tommigun]

I'll vote when I understand what the numbers represent. Is 5 good, as in I give this off season 5 out of 5 stars, or is 5 bad, as in maximum regression, couldn't have done any worse if we tried?

Good point haha I edited the post to say:
1 is bad off-season, 5 is great off-season. You can change your vote when new developments happen.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

It depends. If Stastny is not on our team, who is? Brassard? Hoffman? Plekanec? Nash? It was clear by all accounts that Chevy was going to make a somewhat bigger deadline deal, so if Stastny wouldn't have been on our team, somebody else would have.

Brassard wasn't an option, Plekanec wasn't going to impact in anywhere near the same way, Nash and Hoffman are not Centres.

Chevy stated he was prepared to not make a move let alone a bigger splash if it didn't make sense.

Regardless Stastny was and was a real possibility to be on the team going forward, he isn't and that is a significant subtraction.

I wrote in another thread that in essence the sky is not falling, no Stastny is however a challenge for the playoffs. Maybe like you said some things get done of course, and the regular season really isn't a concern besides making the playoffs imo. Pretty certain the Jets want that 2C for that though.

 

[Jake Barnes]

You are right about Stastny in the regular season, but there’s no way we would have won the Nashville series without him. We then proceeded to lose to Vegas WITH him, but next time we meet he’ll be playing AGAINST us. That worries me a great deal.

We definitely downgraded on G. Yes Mason had an injury plagued season but that happens, there’s no reason to believe every season will be like that. I’d far rather have Mason backing up Helle than Brossoit and am quite concerned about our G as well.

There is a very real possibility that Trouba will get traded. If he doesn’t he’ll be playing for a team he doesn’t want to play for. I don’t think he can play at 100% mentally . It will also invariably create some kind of locker room distractions.

Armia is definitely replaceable but I am not convinced his replacement will be any better. We’ll see.

I disagree that we couldn't beat Nashville without Stastny. He definitely helped, but we were good enough to win without him. I guess we'll find out this year, because the road to the cup will likely involve playing Nashville. As for Vegas, go back and look at their PDO for that series as well as the xGF and possession stats. We lost, yes, but we outplayed them the whole series. That happens sometimes, but it doesn't necessarily indicate that we didn't have the horses to get it done. You're also assuming Vegas is for real. IMO their underlying numbers combined with a lot of players playing way above their career averages lead me to believe that that remains to be determined.

No argument about a downgrade at G. However, if our defense can limit quality chances like last year, we should be fine.

As for Trouba not being 100% in it, he sure seemed to be 100% in it after his hold out. You don't block pucks with your head if you aren't fully committed. If it goes to arbitration, I doubt he'll be happy with what he gets so he'll be extra motivated to up his play so he can actually get what he wants (assuming that number starts with a 7 or an 8).

Armia's replacement doesn't have to be better. They just have to contribute what he did. I think we have guys who can do that, and possibly more. We'll see, I suppose.

All that being said, I do get where you're coming from. I just think you're being overly pessimistic. But, then again, maybe I'm just being overly optimistic. I don't think so, though.

 

[Tommigun]

I disagree that we couldn't beat Nashville without Stastny. He definitely helped, but we were good enough to win without him. I guess we'll find out this year, because the road to the cup will likely involve playing Nashville. As for Vegas, go back and look at their PDO for that series as well as the xGF and possession stats. We lost, yes, but we outplayed them the whole series. That happens sometimes, but it doesn't necessarily indicate that we didn't have the horses to get it done. You're also assuming Vegas is for real. IMO their underlying numbers combined with a lot of players playing way above their career averages lead me to believe that that remains to be determined.

No argument about a downgrade at G. However, if our defense can limit quality chances like last year, we should be fine.

As for Trouba not being 100% in it, he sure seemed to be 100% in it after his hold out. You don't block pucks with your head if you aren't fully committed. If it goes to arbitration, I doubt he'll be happy with what he gets so he'll be extra motivated to up his play so he can actually get what he wants (assuming that number starts with a 7 or an 8).

Armia's replacement doesn't have to be better. They just have to contribute what he did. I think we have guys who can do that, and possibly more. We'll see, I suppose.

All that being said, I do get where you're coming from. I just think you're being overly pessimistic. But, then again, maybe I'm just being overly optimistic. I don't think so, though.

I disagree with us being able to beat Nashville without Stastny, unless I’m grossly misremembering things (which is entirely possible) he was absolutely instrumental in the win.

Regarding Trouba - the arbitration was today so unless a miracle happens it seems like he’s on his way out. I personally am anticipating a trade between two days from now until at the very latest next off-season.

This is just me, of course

 

[kittiecarlyle]

I disagree with us being able to beat Nashville without Stastny, unless I’m grossly misremembering things (which is entirely possible) he was absolutely instrumental in the win.

Regarding Trouba - the arbitration was today so unless a miracle happens it seems like he’s on his way out. I personally am anticipating a trade between two days from now until at the very latest next off-season.

This is just me, of course

Jets don't win the series against Nashville with out Stastny, unless magically some other C would have played in his place. Anyone watching the series should know that. KEY player.

 

[Jake Barnes]

I disagree with us being able to beat Nashville without Stastny, unless I’m grossly misremembering things (which is entirely possible) he was absolutely instrumental in the win.

Regarding Trouba - the arbitration was today so unless a miracle happens it seems like he’s on his way out. I personally am anticipating a trade between two days from now until at the very latest next off-season.

This is just me, of course

Oh, I'm not suggesting that Stastny didn't play a big role, I'm just saying that I think we had a deep and talented enough roster to win that series. Someone else would have stepped up. Who knows, it might have even been Little And yes, I mis-typed. I meant to say "if he takes the arbitrator's contract". I recall reading somewhere that we had until Sunday to make a deal. Even so, it's possible both parties decided to see what an arbitrator said and then use that figure to craft a long-term extension. If it hasn't been a distraction for the past 2 seasons, I don't see why it would be now.

Like I said, we'll just have to see what happens, but I expect us to be just fine.

 

[Ares]

Nothing positive has happened as of yet so 1.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yes. You are most definitely over reacting.

-We were a 110 point team without Stastny.
-As much as I loved Armia, he is replaceable from within. Dano or Appleton, most likely.
-Trouba will re-sign. If it's an arbitrator awarded deal, he will play his butt off so he can cash in on his next deal; if he signs long term, then we're not losing him, are we?
-Mason wasn't really much of a factor when we truly needed him to be. He wasn't bad, but it wasn't like he was forcing Maurice to make any super hard decisions about our starting goaltending. Plus, our defense did a great job of limiting high danger chances.
-Toby is a loss for sure, but Niku looks ready to take that next step. Failing that, a top 4 of 8-44 and 57-33 should be fine.

So yeah, maybe other teams went out and got people. We didn't have to because we can fill most of those spots internally. The only question mark for me is how Niku performs in the Show. I expect somewhere between 106 and 112 points again this season and home ice in the playoffs.

You are underrating the backup goalie problem. Helle was overworked last year, IMO. Mason wasn't much of a factor but we still had Hutch to fall back on.

That said, Brossoit may be better than I have been expecting. Other than his games with the Oilers he looked pretty promising. Oilers have made a lot of goalies look bad. We'll see about Brossoit.

If we are forced to play Myers at 2LD we are in trouble on D.

Trouba is another story. I think the OP is assuming that he is traded, in which case he is indeed gone. But in that case, there is a return.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I disagree with us being able to beat Nashville without Stastny, unless I’m grossly misremembering things (which is entirely possible) he was absolutely instrumental in the win.

Regarding Trouba - the arbitration was today so unless a miracle happens it seems like he’s on his way out. I personally am anticipating a trade between two days from now until at the very latest next off-season.

This is just me, of course

Stastny was instrumental in the win. But if he hadn't been there things would have been different. We still might have won but we would have had to do it differently. We would have had different line combinations. Maybe one that worked. Who knows? The 2 teams were even enough all season long that we can't say for certain what would have happened.

 

[Duke749]

I see y’all have found the cliff.

 

[Bob E]

The good:
Helle signed - good deal for both sides.
Lowry signed - good deal for both sides.
Mason traded - good to get out of that deal.

The bad:
Stastny left - couldn't fit him under the cap anyway without moving another 1 or 2 pieces.
Armia traded - bit of a salary dump, but he was a fine bottom 6'er.
Trouba getting to arbitration - not the end of the world as it means a lower salary for one year. But wheels may now be in motion for his exit out of Jetland.

The ugly:
Broissot signed - though the price was right, he is very unproven. We are a Helle injury away from disaster.


Chevy is working with a very slim cap margin. Was going to be a challenge. Sign Morrissey to a long-term deal, and either Laine or Connor this off-season and the 'grade' will definitely improve.

 

[None]

This is going to be seen as a hot take since he's not here anymore but I thought Stastny was invisible 5v5 against Nashville. As depth it certainly helped having him instead of a lesser player in the bottom 6 playing more (Hendricks), but as said above if it wasn't Stastny it's likely there would've been another rental acquired to fill more difficult minutes. The chemistry that Stastny apparently had was disappearing towards the end of the run.

And if Trouba falls off a cliff performance wise because he's disheartened from the arbitration hearing he isn't the player anyone thought he was. He needs to keep performing at the same level if he wants to get paid like a top pairing defenseman if he's willing to let negotiations go to the arbitrator for a 1-2 year deal. What makes anyone think he's going to mail it in because he doesn't get his way?

 

[kittiecarlyle]

This is going to be seen as a hot take since he's not here anymore but I thought Stastny was invisible 5v5 against Nashville. As depth it certainly helped having him instead of a lesser player in the bottom 6 playing more (Hendricks), but as said above if it wasn't Stastny it's likely there would've been another rental acquired to fill more difficult minutes. The chemistry that Stastny apparently had was disappearing towards the end of the run.

And if Trouba falls off a cliff performance wise because he's disheartened from the arbitration hearing he isn't the player anyone thought he was. He needs to keep performing at the same level if he wants to get paid like a top pairing defenseman if he's willing to let negotiations go to the arbitrator for a 1-2 year deal. What makes anyone think he's going to mail it in because he doesn't get his way?

Invisible point producer. 5 goals and 5 assists iirc. Yeah good luck winning the series without his contributions.

 

[nags]

The good:
Helle signed - good deal for both sides.
Lowry signed - good deal for both sides.
Mason traded - good to get out of that deal.

The bad:
Stastny left - couldn't fit him under the cap anyway without moving another 1 or 2 pieces.
Armia traded - bit of a salary dump, but he was a fine bottom 6'er.
Trouba getting to arbitration - not the end of the world as it means a lower salary for one year. But wheels may now be in motion for his exit out of Jetland.

The ugly:
Broissot signed - though the price was right, he is very unproven. We are a Helle injury away from disaster.


Chevy is working with a very slim cap margin. Was going to be a challenge. Sign Morrissey to a long-term deal, and either Laine or Connor this off-season and the 'grade' will definitely improve.

The guy that found Helle was someone named St. Croix. The guy that watched his son play with someone named Broissot for 3 or 4 seasons was named St. Croix. Maybe give Broissot a chance before writing him off since maybe Mr. St. Croix knows something we don't..... maybe.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think we'll be fine going into the season, I think we should focus on re-signing Wheeler if not there's nothing to worry about because Scheifele can lead the pack.

I think we should try to trade Trouba at this point since he's just being a little bit selfish. I hope we could trade him for firepower.