Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[phillipmike]

To this day I still find it strange that this front office's first big, long-term (re-)signing was Grichuk. They are so methodical in their process, and Grichuk is the one they latched on to first. Just weird.

I understood it from the perspective he was a 2 WAR player per year in his career. If he continued that he would have been fine making 10M but the FO was making the gamble in hopes that he can take it to the next level. If he does, having a 3-4 WAR OF in his prime making 10M would have been a steal.

Problem is he regressed. His value would go back up to a 2-3 WAR player if he stayed in RF because he isn’t a good CF.

But yeah, there was no need to sign him early in the 2019 season. At that point we had him under control for 2019 and 2020. If the FO waited, he would be a free agent right now and we would have 10M extra to spend.

 

[Discoverer]

I understood it from the perspective he was a 2 WAR player per year in his career. If he continued that he would have been fine making 10M but the FO was making the gamble in hopes that he can take it to the next level. If he does, having a 3-4 WAR OF in his prime making 10M would have been a steal.

Problem is he regressed. His value would go back up to a 2-3 WAR player if he stayed in RF because he isn’t a good CF.

But yeah, there was no need to sign him early in the 2019 season. At that point we had him under control for 2019 and 2020. If the FO waited, he would be a free agent right now and we would have 10M extra to spend.

The results are very different, but it's similar for me to the Smoak contract in that they gambled by signing a player to a somewhat unnecessary extension because (presumably) they thought was primed for a breakout and thought they were better off locking him up early instead of letting him break out and having to pay way more a year or two down the road.

 

[phillipmike]

The results are very different, but it's similar for me to the Smoak contract in that they gambled by signing a player to a somewhat unnecessary extension because (presumably) they thought was primed for a breakout and thought they were better off locking him up early instead of letting him break out and having to pay way more a year or two down the road.

Yeah I agree. I see it the same way. When you have control, no need commit. But I also see it their way to; to me Grichuk was a 2 fWAR floor player at that time. Players don’t normally regress during their aged 27 and 28 season yet here we are.

As I said, a simple move back to RF would make him 2 fWARish player again. This season he had 0.6 fWAR in 55 games. Extrapolate that across 162 that 1.8 fWAR and if you move him to RF where he is graded as a better defender then it should be over 2 WAR. Problem is we have two corner OFs in Gurriel and Teoscar already and no CF. In a perfect world you get a legit CF, Grichuk goes to RF, Teoscar to DH and Vladdy is an average defensive 3B.

I wonder if we can make a move with Tampa. They owe Kiermayer 25.8M over the next 2 years including a buyout in 2023. They have players that can play CF in Margot and Arozarena. Grichuk is owed 31M over 3 years and Tampa needs a catcher.

Grichuk and McGuire for Kiermayer?

Grichuk will gain value moving to a corner OF spot which could help increase his trade value AND get a young catcher who they could develop.

Jays get a very similar player from a WAR perspective but he brings two things Grichuk can’t;

1. Elite defense in CF
2. Left handed bat

The Jays under AA floundered 2 prime contending years in 2013 and 2014 because they weren’t good enough on the pitching side and defensively. AA realized you can help your pitchers by improving your defense. AA added elite defensive players in Donaldson, Martin and Tulo and had Pillar breakout. That made a big difference.

I’m hoping this FO recognizes this very soon. You can’t expect to be a true WS contender with below average defense at CF, SS, 3B, RF and 1B (it Vladdy is playing there). I do think Bichette will get better at SS.

 

[Bjindaho]

Yeah I agree. I see it the same way. When you have control, no need commit. But I also see it their way to; to me Grichuk was a 2 fWAR floor player at that time. Players don’t normally regress during their aged 27 and 28 season yet here we are.

As I said, a simple move back to RF would make him 2 fWARish player again. This season he had 0.6 fWAR in 55 games. Extrapolate that across 162 that 1.8 fWAR and if you move him to RF where he is graded as a better defender then it should be over 2 WAR. Problem is we have two corner OFs in Gurriel and Teoscar already and no CF. In a perfect world you get a legit CF, Grichuk goes to RF, Teoscar to DH and Vladdy is an average defensive 3B.

I wonder if we can make a move with Tampa. They owe Kiermayer 25.8M over the next 2 years including a buyout in 2023. They have players that can play CF in Margot and Arozarena. Grichuk is owed 31M over 3 years and Tampa needs a catcher.

Grichuk and McGuire for Kiermayer?

Grichuk will gain value moving to a corner OF spot which could help increase his trade value AND get a young catcher who they could develop.

Jays get a very similar player from a WAR perspective but he brings two things Grichuk can’t;

1. Elite defense in CF
2. Left handed bat

The Jays under AA floundered 2 prime contending years in 2013 and 2014 because they weren’t good enough on the pitching side and defensively. AA realized you can help your pitchers by improving your defense. AA added elite defensive players in Donaldson, Martin and Tulo and had Pillar breakout. That made a big difference.

I’m hoping this FO recognizes this very soon. You can’t expect to be a true WS contender with below average defense at CF, SS, 3B, RF and 1B (it Vladdy is playing there). I do think Bichette will get better at SS.

Kiermaier is a no-go for me. At his salary, I'd rather gamble on Bradley.

 

[Hoverhand]

Yeah I agree. I see it the same way. When you have control, no need commit. But I also see it their way to; to me Grichuk was a 2 fWAR floor player at that time. Players don’t normally regress during their aged 27 and 28 season yet here we are.

As I said, a simple move back to RF would make him 2 fWARish player again. This season he had 0.6 fWAR in 55 games. Extrapolate that across 162 that 1.8 fWAR and if you move him to RF where he is graded as a better defender then it should be over 2 WAR. Problem is we have two corner OFs in Gurriel and Teoscar already and no CF. In a perfect world you get a legit CF, Grichuk goes to RF, Teoscar to DH and Vladdy is an average defensive 3B.

I wonder if we can make a move with Tampa. They owe Kiermayer 25.8M over the next 2 years including a buyout in 2023. They have players that can play CF in Margot and Arozarena. Grichuk is owed 31M over 3 years and Tampa needs a catcher.

Grichuk and McGuire for Kiermayer?

Grichuk will gain value moving to a corner OF spot which could help increase his trade value AND get a young catcher who they could develop.

Jays get a very similar player from a WAR perspective but he brings two things Grichuk can’t;

1. Elite defense in CF
2. Left handed bat

The Jays under AA floundered 2 prime contending years in 2013 and 2014 because they weren’t good enough on the pitching side and defensively. AA realized you can help your pitchers by improving your defense. AA added elite defensive players in Donaldson, Martin and Tulo and had Pillar breakout. That made a big difference.

I’m hoping this FO recognizes this very soon. You can’t expect to be a true WS contender with below average defense at CF, SS, 3B, RF and 1B (it Vladdy is playing there). I do think Bichette will get better at SS.

I'm inclined to agree with most of what is said here especially the final point about AA. I think Grichuk and McGuire for Kiermaier is advantageous for both sides but I'd only be in favour of it if Kiermaier became the 4th outfielder opposed to the starting CF.

This move would pair really well with a Springer signing, as you get a positive dWAR starting CF and an elite batsman. If an injury occurs, you can easily plug in a gold glove outfielder and hide him at the bottom of the order. With the Marlins exercising Marte's club option and Marcell Ozuna no longer being a regular CF, my strategy does get quite muddy if Springer chooses NYM.

 

[Jozay]

2 elite players sounds a lot more fun

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

2 elite players sounds a lot more fun

Yea get 2 elite players. You can always trade for really good players at decent prices.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

No ones a sure thing. But if we had a prospect hitting .350, with a obp at almost .500, slugging over .800, 30+ homers, 100+ rbis, we'd all be drooling waiting for his call up. You're right not a sure thing, but guys who hit like that over in aa and aaa, tend to pan out

For sure, no one is a sure thing. I was thinking about Byung-ho Park, who put up similar numbers in South Korea, but was a major disappointment with the Twins. And yes, I realize that doesn't mean he won't pan out. I'm just not getting on the hype train yet.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

You realize that Coors is less of a homer haven than Toronto?

Also, he would get to pitch in Petco, Oracle, Dodger Stadium and Chase regularly)

I think you better recheck your facts. Coors Field is rated as the number 1 park for home runs, Toronto is ranked ninth.

 

[Discoverer]

For sure, no one is a sure thing. I was thinking about Byung-ho Park, who put up similar numbers in South Korea, but was a major disappointment with the Twins. And yes, I realize that doesn't mean he won't pan out. I'm just not getting on the hype train yet.

If Park had been a solid up-the-middle defender instead of a 1B/DH, he probably would have gotten a lot more rope.

 

[Bjindaho]

I think you better recheck your facts. Coors Field is rated as the number 1 park for home runs, Toronto is ranked ninth.

I checked park factors for 2019 and 2020. It was not 1 in either year.

Edit: I think you are looking at runs vs HR. HR is normally the 2nd column.

 

[hockeywiz542]

New Ball Park in Toronto isn’t in Shapiro’s 'windshield’ - TSN

Mark Shapiro admits a new stadium in Toronto was something he was working towards when he arrived, but with the recent pandemic, it just isn't something in his 'windshield' at this time. He also discusses the team's pursuit of a few high end free agents and the possibility of bringing on a big name player.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

I checked park factors for 2019 and 2020. It was not 1 in either year.

Edit: I think you are looking at runs vs HR. HR is normally the 2nd column.

I probably was. My bad.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Morgs]

Dombrowski is great if you want to go all in for the next ~3 years and sabotage the 10 years after.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

It's happening!!!

What would a contract look like for him? Comparable I heard was the guy who played for PIT, can't remember his name off top of my head.
He was 28 when he came to MLB where Kim is 25.

I'd be willing to trade Grichuk for nothing, assuming we didn't take any money back.

What would we get for him?
Grichuk + Jansen + prospect for Snell + overpriced #3-4SP with 2 years left?


Would love to get Realmuto + Snell and sign Brantley for CF, likely gonna be cheaper than Grichuk.
Have heard guys on sportsnet say Davis could be a trio/platoon of guys at CF along with Grichuk and Biggio. Can Davis pull it off?
Worth a shot or sign a vet?

 

[dredeye]

To this day I still find it strange that this front office's first big, long-term (re-)signing was Grichuk. They are so methodical in their process, and Grichuk is the one they latched on to first. Just weird.

I think they were betting on him getting better. Trying to buy a little low. It didn’t work out in their favour this time

 

[SDig14]

What would a contract look like for him? Comparable I heard was the guy who played for PIT, can't remember his name off top of my head.
He was 28 when he came to MLB where Kim is 25.

The numbers tossed around seem to be between 5 years and $40 million with that number potentially going up to $50-$60 million.

So basically I would say $8M AAV on the low end and $12M AAV on the high end?

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

The numbers tossed around seem to be between 5 years and $40 million with that number potentially going up to $50-$60 million.

So basically I would say $8M AAV on the low end and $12M AAV on the high end?

Can it work long term cap wise for the 5 years then?
With all the young stars getting paid in 3 or 4 years.
Would you sign him?

Just feel we have a ton of infield potential so unless Biggio and possibly Martin go to outfield, where does everyone play in two years?
Groshans is eventually 3B?

 

[Bjindaho]

Can it work long term cap wise for the 5 years then?
With all the young stars getting paid in 3 or 4 years.
Would you sign him?

Just feel we have a ton of infield potential so unless Biggio and possibly Martin go to outfield, where does everyone play in two years?
Groshans is eventually 3B?

First off, that's a later problem.

Second, right now it would be something like:
3B - Vlad/Kim
SS - Bo
2B - Kim/Biggio
1B - Tellez/Vlad
C - Jansen
LF - Gurriel
CF - Martin
RF - Grichuk
DH - Teoscar

Where Biggio is super sub, 3rd is Vlad's to lose and Groshans likely gets a September callup.

Note: this is before signings

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

First off, that's a later problem.

Second, right now it would be something like:
3B - Vlad/Kim
SS - Bo
2B - Kim/Biggio
1B - Tellez/Vlad
C - Jansen
LF - Gurriel
CF - Martin
RF - Grichuk
DH - Teoscar

Where Biggio is super sub, 3rd is Vlad's to lose and Groshans likely gets a September callup.

Note: this is before signings

Appreciate it.
So who are your two/three guys if you could make two or three moves, one/two signings/one trade/two trades etc?
Pitching included.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

What would a contract look like for him? Comparable I heard was the guy who played for PIT, can't remember his name off top of my head.
He was 28 when he came to MLB where Kim is 25.




What would we get for him?
Grichuk + Jansen + prospect for Snell + overpriced #3-4SP with 2 years left?


Would love to get Realmuto + Snell and sign Brantley for CF, likely gonna be cheaper than Grichuk.
Have heard guys on sportsnet say Davis could be a trio/platoon of guys at CF along with Grichuk and Biggio. Can Davis pull it off?
Worth a shot or sign a vet?

Do you mean Bradley for CF? Because Brantley is LF only.

 

[phillipmike]

Not that the Jays were after him but i think a few guys here wanted him.

Also Brandon Morrow back to the Dodgers on a minor league deal.