Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

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Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
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I'd probably offer 5/150, with a club option that extends it to 6/170. Something scaled like:

Y1 21m | Y2 31m | Y3 31m | Y4 31m | Y5 31m | Y6 25m option (5m buyout)

I have no idea. Maybe 6/150?

4/108 (21, 27, 30, 30), team option @ 28 with a 2m buyout...so basically 4/110 or 5/136

I really don't see how it gets lower than that on the AAV, unless you go into the nether regions of a 6th or 7th year. I'd love to say you can keep it in the three digits but unless Donaldson's willing to bet he can take a 3/90 or something and get another big deal afterwards I can't imagine it happening.

I still don't see why you would try to extend Donaldson now though. I don't see his value going any higher, nor do I see there being a true discount opportunity now. Wait until the end of next year, and if he throws up another 7 win season pay the man.

Wow. Well I respect your opinions. Will be interesting to see where it ends up.

Just for context, if I take the Beltre contract and hit it with a multiple of 1.5x, I get:

32: 21MM
33: 22.5MM
34: 24MM
35: 25.5MM
36: 27MM

for 5 @ $120MM.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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Wow. Well I respect your opinions. Will be interesting to see where it ends up.

Just for context, if I take the Beltre contract and hit it with a multiple of 1.5x, I get:

32: 21MM
33: 22.5MM
34: 24MM
35: 25.5MM
36: 27MM

for 5 @ $120MM.

What if you assume his defense won't hold up over the whole contract and decide to treat him as a 1B in the future to be safe? Then you end up with Votto and Cabrera as the best comps.
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
18,881
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Toronto
The market still sees him as an elite defensive 3B (even if he had a pretty solid drop-off this year), so I don't see how that would play in negotiations. But I do think its probably what would happen.

Another reason IMO to wait an extra year. If the defense ends up at replacement level I think you can probably save a bit of money going forward and at least get some tacit acknowledgement that a move across the diamond might come at the turn of the decade.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,407
3,235
Toronto, Ontario
Wow. Well I respect your opinions. Will be interesting to see where it ends up.

Just for context, if I take the Beltre contract and hit it with a multiple of 1.5x, I get:

32: 21MM
33: 22.5MM
34: 24MM
35: 25.5MM
36: 27MM

for 5 @ $120MM.

But what does 1.5x signify? It's been what, 6 years since that contract was signed? The FA deals are much richer now, plus Donaldson is a much better player.
 

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,973
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You're not getting Donaldson at anything near 21 million. I'd bet it'd be closer to 30 million per than 25 million. Perhaps even over 30 million depending on how much term he gets.

There really aren't any comps for a player who's put up an average of 7.6 fWAR for 4 seasons at this age with 2 years of control left. I mean he won't, well he shouldn't get as much term as some other guys in 2 years time due to his age, but if he puts up 2 more seasons like that, it's gonna take a pretty penny, even at that age. Trying to find comps to keep the price down just won't work because every single comp of a player at his age at 3B is severely underselling JD.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
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Washington, DC
But what does 1.5x signify? It's been what, 6 years since that contract was signed? The FA deals are much richer now, plus Donaldson is a much better player.

That was just a fast way of accelerating the old contract up for the years that have passed. I haven't had a chance to be at the laptop today. 1.5x is a material jump though with a contract that was already built to inflate as time went on.

The contract you quote though makes him the highest paid position player in the league in terms of aav (as of now), which I can only assume you're incorporating Machado and Harper and the money they will get in two years to make the number not stick out like that. Which is fine, this is all opinion based. I simply feel the Turner deal certainly ties a weight to the one Donaldson would possibly sign this offseason. However, like Aub said, both sides really don't have incentive to lock in right now.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,407
3,235
Toronto, Ontario
That was just a fast way of accelerating the old contract up for the years that have passed. I haven't had a chance to be at the laptop today. 1.5x is a material jump though with a contract that was already built to inflate as time went on.

The contract you quote though makes him the highest paid position player in the league in terms of aav (as of now), which I can only assume you're incorporating Machado and Harper and the money they will get in two years to make the number not stick out like that. Which is fine, this is all opinion based. I simply feel the Turner deal certainly ties a weight to the one Donaldson would possibly sign this offseason. However, like Aub said, both sides really don't have incentive to lock in right now.

Of course. Machado and Harper will clear him with 300-400m contracts. And yeah, I agree both sides wouldn't negotiate a deal right now. I was just working with your hypothetical.
 

Sens Rule

Registered User
Sep 22, 2005
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What if you assume his defense won't hold up over the whole contract and decide to treat him as a 1B in the future to be safe? Then you end up with Votto and Cabrera as the best comps.

Donaldson is only 31 and is pretty much a gold glove level fielder now. I doubt he is moving to 1b for at least 6/7 years.
 

Nasty Nazem

Come at me Crow!
Apr 5, 2010
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Barring a major dropoff, Donaldson will assuredly earn somewhere between 25-30M over a 4-5 year deal. Likely looking at more if he continues to perform at MVP level for the next two years. He deserves it but I think it would probably be a mistake to keep him beyond his FA years as he is going to be nearly 33 when he hits FA.

If the team performs poorly this year and isn't a contender, I think they should deal him at the deadline. If the team continues to be a contender for the next two years, you try to win and at the end, thank Donaldson for how awesome he has been here and let him walk.
 

Leaftors

Registered User
Jul 21, 2011
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Welland, Ontario
Barring a major dropoff, Donaldson will assuredly earn somewhere between 25-30M over a 4-5 year deal. Likely looking at more if he continues to perform at MVP level for the next two years. He deserves it but I think it would probably be a mistake to keep him beyond his FA years as he is going to be nearly 33 when he hits FA.

If the team performs poorly this year and isn't a contender, I think they should deal him at the deadline. If the team continues to be a contender for the next two years, you try to win and at the end, thank Donaldson for how awesome he has been here and let him walk.

It would be terrible asset management to let him walk, think of it this way;

We bought donaldson low, and the investment turned out great as we got the best possible outcome from it.

If the FO feels like it isnt in the teams best interest to keep him, then you trade him, and you get a better return than you gave out to get said player, and you are in a better position than you were when you started.

If you let him walk, then your giving up the asset for nothing, and your not managing your business very well.
 

Nasty Nazem

Come at me Crow!
Apr 5, 2010
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It would be terrible asset management to let him walk, think of it this way;

We bought donaldson low, and the investment turned out great as we got the best possible outcome from it.

If the FO feels like it isnt in the teams best interest to keep him, then you trade him, and you get a better return than you gave out to get said player, and you are in a better position than you were when you started.

If you let him walk, then your giving up the asset for nothing, and your not managing your business very well.

Being a contender and taking a run at winning isn't "nothing".

As I said, if they are not a contender, trade him.
 

Doug Gilmour

Registered User
Oct 5, 2010
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54
I say trade Donaldson and cash in. We desperately need to restock our system while also still trimming our payroll cause we all know Rogers won't dish $160-200M to field a championship team.
 

Leaftors

Registered User
Jul 21, 2011
2,402
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Welland, Ontario
Being a contender and taking a run at winning isn't "nothing".

As I said, if they are not a contender, trade him.


Again, like I said, in that case the FO would sign him, because if they believe we're contenders, then Donaldson is in the long run with that. You still should not let someone go for free, especially when they are of MVP caliber.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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Donaldson is only 31 and is pretty much a gold glove level fielder now. I doubt he is moving to 1b for at least 6/7 years.

That wasn't what I was implying. I was suggesting that those 1B with huge contracts are more comparable because his value is closer to theirs than it is to any 3B we could use as a comp.
 

Leaftors

Registered User
Jul 21, 2011
2,402
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Welland, Ontario
I say trade Donaldson and cash in. We desperately need to restock our system while also still trimming our payroll cause we all know Rogers won't dish $160-200M to field a championship team.

Except this year with a budget of 160m american (since slaries are paid in USD) which brings them to $210m canadian, which is actually over what your expecting them not to dish out
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
18,881
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Toronto
Again, like I said, in that case the FO would sign him, because if they believe we're contenders, then Donaldson is in the long run with that. You still should not let someone go for free, especially when they are of MVP caliber.

Would you have traded Edwin/Jose at the deadline this year?
 

Nasty Nazem

Come at me Crow!
Apr 5, 2010
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Canada
Again, like I said, in that case the FO would sign him, because if they believe we're contenders, then Donaldson is in the long run with that. You still should not let someone go for free, especially when they are of MVP caliber.

It's not free. You're not locking yourself to a long-term crippling contract that will most definitely be regrettable. Every team has a budget and using 30M, a good chunk of that budget on a 33 year 3B going forward isn't a good idea. That's a lot of money right there that could be used more wisely IMO.
 
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