Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - So now what?

[SpezDispenser]

Sorry, I was just being sarcastic since he referenced what his friend's son who works in the Cards organization said about Fowler. I don't actually know what EE's modus operandi was. However, I will say this, he complained that the Jays did not offer him more than a two year deal in spring training. Would he have accepted the 4/80 offer in ST? I question if he really wanted to stay here, and that's why talks went sour and the Jays went in another direction. Kinzer was trying to posture and say he has received multiple offers, Jays didn't take the bait, and EE then had to take a worse offer.

Yeah, not sure it played out well for either party. Toronto missed out and ee missed out on where he really wanted to play.

 

[Fantomas]

I didn't say they were cheap.

I am pointing out that after leading the league in attendance and hosting 5 playoff games the Jays payroll will increase by a mere $700 000 from where it ended the 2016 season.

When you consider that in-house raises will account for over $16 M, the remaining 21 players will actually be receiving $15 M LESS than their 2016 counterparts.

A million times yes.

 

[Fantomas]

The Blue Jays do not have to sign EE to make their fans happy. But they better acquire somebody very good. McCutheon or otherwise.

Otherwise this is the worst Christmas ever.

 

[Fantomas]

If EE loved the city with his all heart, he should have accepted the first offer ($17M per season). It was all about money I guess. Money talks. But I'm glad the front office didn't get involved in the money game.

LOL, you're "glad". Let's see how "glad" you'll be watching Justin Smoak whiffing in EE's place.

 

[frost king]

Getting McCutchen would actually make me feel much better about losing EE lol

Travis 2B
McCutchen RF
Donaldson 3B
Bautista 1B
Morales DH
Tulowitzki SS
Pearce LF
Martin C
Pillar CF

Upton / Smoak / Barney / Iannetta


No idea what would be required to get McCutchen. 2 of Tellez/Urena/Alford/Greene/Harris +?

Wow, are you people ever gulliable with this front office. It is not in their DNA to make the type of deal. They have never done this, and never will. Just check out Shapiro's trade record with the Indians, he was always the one trading the stars for younger players. He would never trade prospects, as for signing EE, the contract, that he offered would have put him on par with Martin and Tulo. You would have expected them to slightly offer more than those two because he was perceived to be one of their own. See when they brought in all of these big contracts, like Reyes, Burhle, Martin and Tulo, and all the other guys making more than EE and JB, and you are producing more value than those other guys, you feel
slighted, because the only reason, that they are here, is because YOU are CARRYING THE TEAM. So when it is your turn to be rewarded, you are being slapped in the face with same kind of money. The absolute dollar figures, mean nothing, it is where you are in the pecking order that counts. EE should have been made to be special and offered at least $1 more than the rest of the guys to make him feel special for what he has done for the organization. They will do the same thing to Donaldson. They will let Estrada walk because they will say he has a gimpy back, even though it happen because he was doing what was best for the team and not his career. He should be rewarded, but won't.

 

[teeder333*]

LOL, you're "glad". Let's see how "glad" you'll be watching Justin Smoak whiffing in EE's place.

Amen to that, if we have a threesome of Pillar, Upton and Smoak in the order, I am not going to watch that game. Too brutal to watch guys whiffing at smoke, no pun intended.

 

[tp71]

LOL, you're "glad". Let's see how "glad" you'll be watching Justin Smoak whiffing in EE's place.

Smoak likely won't be the starting 1B. I doubt EE likely would have been the starting 1B had he re-signed.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Even the limitless budget Yankees figured out that throwing gigantic contracts at ageing FA all stars doesn't guarantee you any success. Like in hockey, teenagers are coming up better prepared for the pro game and are having a big impact in their early 20s. Scouting is getting much better too so drafting is less than a crapshoot than it used to be and thus with drafting being more precise and younger players bringing more impact, the importance of youth vs big UFAs will continue to trend.

The last time the Jays threw money around like drunken sailors? The championship years. Penny pinching isn't congruent with championships. The Yankees have been buying titles since the days of yore.

 

[Leaftors]

The last time the Jays threw money around like drunken sailors? The championship years. Penny pinching isn't congruent with championships. The Yankees have been buying titles since the days of yore.

cool. Why aren't you a yankees fan then?

 

[Eyedea]

The last time the Jays threw money around like drunken sailors? The championship years. Penny pinching isn't congruent with championships. The Yankees have been buying titles since the days of yore.

1992: Signed Winfield for 1 year and Morris for 2 years.
1993: Signed Molitor for 3 years, Stewart for 2 years, Cox for 1 year.

Outside of Encarnacion maybe being as impactful as Molitor, what kind of drunken sailor flexing went on, and how could the 2016 Blue Jays do the same thing? Outside of Bautista, Beltran, Holliday, and maybe Colon, everybody that is good wants more than a one/two year contract.

The romanticizing of the Jays spending never really makes sense to me. They were pulling in above average crowds since 1983, and by 1986 they were the AL leaders in attendance. Despite that, they only reached the 6th highest payroll once (1988) prior to 1992, not top 5, but 6th, and were generally sitting around 9-13th overall. Why didn't Gillick spend earlier?

Never mind the Yankees. They were the highest spending baseball team all throughout the 1980s and they had nothing to show for it. They had to build up a core just like any other dynasty.

 

[ryno23]

The more I read the more I blame EE for this whole mess.

From what I can tell Jays made the highest offer her received this off season at 4 years / $80M.

He claims he wanted to be back here badly, but instead shopped our offer around, and when he couldn't find any suitors he asked us to up to 4 years / $100M.

What a joke, terrible negotiating tactics by him and his agent. Dumb they are trying to frame it as if the Jays were the ones that sold them out. Some serious revisionist history there.

I sat back and looked all the stuff with EE and really its the Jays that played the PR game to perfection and now people are blaming EE.

Think about it. He goes to market and he and his agent know hi4s peers guy like V-Mart among others knowing he got 88 over I think without looking it up. So he has had many better years since VMart signed his deal and the league is flush with new TV money so his agent and himself figured he could at least match the deal or beat it. Which looking at it objectively makes sense.

So what do the Jays do they offer a deal at the time was below market value 4/80 and then 2 days later went out and signed a lesser player for cheaper.

Didnt give EE anytime to collect all his offers and go over them. Not even 48 hours.

So now they make out smelling like roses while EE and his agent are taking the heat for not having hindsight and taking the original below market offer from the Jays

Like a few posters have said. This is the end of this window for this team. EE is gone and Jose is almost if not out the door. Next they will deal Martin, Tulo and Donaldson to replenish the farm and go with a cheaper team on the field thinking fans will still flock to the rogers centre for a mediocre team.

This is my just theory but they are going the cheap route but hey hope i am wrong

 

[exporta]

I like how there was some sort of guarantee that if we signed these guys we'd be in the playoffs. Which is quite laughable because we barely squeeked in last year.

Because that was one way implied or said in my comment? We clearly did just barely get in but also got to the AL finals. Typically you either build on that or you go another direction.

If the team is competitive again then all is good. But as a fan who has sat through 20+ years of non-playoffs I am concerned that this window was closed prematurely. There is also an entertainment factor that Edwin, Price and Bautista brought that created excitement that had not existed around this team in 20+ years.

Keeping Edwin doesn't guarantee they make the playoffs again, but I like our odds with him over Smoak/Pearce at 1st or Morales at DH.

I've spent more money on this team the last two seasons than I had in the previous 20. I am not alone in saying that if this doesn't work out for them it will hurt the wallets of Rogers.

 

[no13matssundin]

I sat back and looked all the stuff with EE and really its the Jays that played the PR game to perfection and now people are blaming EE.

Think about it.

This is exactly what it is. They never had any intention to bring him back and the PR game they're playing is the make the move more palpable to the fans/advertisers. This is what Shapiro has done in his career always, which is why Cleveland fans we're crying for us when we got him. This is only the beginning. We'll be hearing about how Donaldson didn't want to come back... Estrada didn't want to come back... and Stro.. and Sanchez... and on and on...

It's only the beginning. Dark ages indeed.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Because that was one way implied or said in my comment? We clearly did just barely get in but also got to the AL finals. Typically you either build on that or you go another direction.

If the team is competitive again then all is good. But as a fan who has sat through 20+ years of non-playoffs I am concerned that this window was closed prematurely. There is also an entertainment factor that Edwin, Price and Bautista brought that created excitement that had not existed around this team in 20+ years.

Keeping Edwin doesn't guarantee they make the playoffs again, but I like our odds with him over Smoak/Pearce at 1st or Morales at DH.

I've spent more money on this team the last two seasons than I had in the previous 20. I am not alone in saying that if this doesn't work out for them it will hurt the wallets of Rogers.

If they go that route (trading Donaldson, Tulo, and Martin) then you'll see barely 20K at the Dome every game. Sure, the hardcore fans may understand but who do you think was filling up the stadium the last 2 seasons? The casuals. The casual fan will walk away and the Dome will be a barren wasteland again. The Jays will become irrelevant again. Anyway, I am not liking what I am seeing so far from Atkins and Shapiro since they took over. I am really concerned for the future of this franchise.

 

[Billy6]

I have mixed feelings on what the Jays are doing this off season. Edwin was my favourite player so obviously I'm sad to see him go but at the same time I knew something had to give. The Jays are not a team on the rise. They are a team on the decline. Martin and Tulo are well onto the back nine of their careers and Edwin is as well. You can't have three core players making 20 million over a long term deal who are in the decline of their careers and still expect to win. The downside is that for next year losing Edwin definitely makes us a worse team.

Shapiro and Atkins are not well liked but if you look at things honestly and realistically they are kind of in a tougher spot than it would appear. The trades for Dickey, Reyes, Buerhle, Price, and Tulo have depleted the farm system and the core of the team that they inherited while very good is also very aging. The Jays have been to back to back ALCS's but there were some obvious warning signs all of last season and especially in September when they almost didn't even make the playoffs that made me doubt the ability of this roster to contend going forward. Those problems that briefly disappeared in the wild card game and the ALDS quickly reappeared in the ALCS when they bowed out quickly to a team largely built by the same management team that we are crapping all over now.

It's easy to complain and make these guys out to be villains but I think they are just being careful with the teams future which we should all understand. Give it some time to play out.

 

[Sens]

This is exactly what it is. They never had any intention to bring him back and the PR game they're playing is the make the move more palpable to the fans/advertisers. This is what Shapiro has done in his career always, which is why Cleveland fans we're crying for us when we got him. This is only the beginning. We'll be hearing about how Donaldson didn't want to come back... Estrada didn't want to come back... and Stro.. and Sanchez... and on and on...

It's only the beginning. Dark ages indeed.

dark times ahead because the GM is building the Jays like he built the Indians.

Interesting logic

 

[bobbygore]

I love ultimatum fans. "Do what I want or I'll stop contributing a few hundred dollars a year to a billion dollar entity"

Rogers primary customer base is made up of people who spend a few hundred bucks each. Rogers has spent big money in the last few years trying to improve their shaky corporate reputation. Screwing customers by over charging for things like unwanted TV channels or gouging pricing has hurt them for years.

Last quarter the media division made an extra $60 million primarily because of the success of the Jays.That hasnt gone unnoticed by a lot of the Jays faithful. Cheaping out on the Jays may have more of a material effect than the braintrust at Rogers thinks.

 

[Quiksilver*]

I sat back and looked all the stuff with EE and really its the Jays that played the PR game to perfection and now people are blaming EE.

Think about it. He goes to market and he and his agent know hi4s peers guy like V-Mart among others knowing he got 88 over I think without looking it up. So he has had many better years since VMart signed his deal and the league is flush with new TV money so his agent and himself figured he could at least match the deal or beat it. Which looking at it objectively makes sense.

So what do the Jays do they offer a deal at the time was below market value 4/80 and then 2 days later went out and signed a lesser player for cheaper.

Didnt give EE anytime to collect all his offers and go over them. Not even 48 hours.

So now they make out smelling like roses while EE and his agent are taking the heat for not having hindsight and taking the original below market offer from the Jays

Like a few posters have said. This is the end of this window for this team. EE is gone and Jose is almost if not out the door. Next they will deal Martin, Tulo and Donaldson to replenish the farm and go with a cheaper team on the field thinking fans will still flock to the rogers centre for a mediocre team.

This is my just theory but they are going the cheap route but hey hope i am wrong

How was the Jays offer in any way below market value?

The Jays apparently set the market, and it was a price that no one else was willing to even match.

 

[JS19]

There's no need to "have" to acquire McCutchen. There are still questions surrounding him particularly from a defensive point of view (particularly whether his decline is a legit decline or a simple bad year). In fact, I'd argue rushing to go trade for McCutchen is a kneejerk move to replace EE's productivity instead of first assessing options.

 

[Le Cobra]

If we can keep Bautista or get McCutchen, I will be happy with the direction of this team. Our bullpen needs some upgrading too.


Here's an interesting article that convinced me we should get McCutchen:

https://www.nysportsday.com/2016/12/23/karpin-andrew-mccutchen-in-decline-not-yet/

 

[sabresEH]

This is exactly what it is. They never had any intention to bring him back and the PR game they're playing is the make the move more palpable to the fans/advertisers. This is what Shapiro has done in his career always, which is why Cleveland fans we're crying for us when we got him. This is only the beginning. We'll be hearing about how Donaldson didn't want to come back... Estrada didn't want to come back... and Stro.. and Sanchez... and on and on...

It's only the beginning. Dark ages indeed.

While I believe that Cheapkins had no intention of re-signing EE I do trust their decision making will keep us competitive and when the time comes because Rogers does have a big pocketbook they will spend the money to put us over the top. Rogers has shown they have no problem spending money on big contracts. They would just prefer that the big contracts are given to the players at the right time(meaning paying for what they will do while making the money not for what they have done).

I think the plan is to spend the money they have right now too spend on low year value contracts(Estrada, Happ, Morales, Pearce) which will keep the team in the playoff race into September meaning the fans will still come and the money will be made. Shatkins will build around the young core we are seeing develop and when the time comes they will spend the money needed to put us over the top.

 

[ShaneFalco]

There's no need to "have" to acquire McCutchen. There are still questions surrounding him particularly from a defensive point of view (particularly whether his decline is a legit decline or a simple bad year). In fact, I'd argue rushing to go trade for McCutchen is a kneejerk move to replace EE's productivity instead of first assessing options.

You don't think they've looked at all kinds of options, and still are ?

 

[ShaneFalco]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/timeline-negotiations-blue-jays-encarnacion/

Spring training – Working under an opening day deadline imposed by Encarnacion, who didn’t want to be distracted by talks in-season, the Blue Jays tabled the idea of a two-year contract extension that included two additional option years and a reworking of the slugger’s 2016 salary of $10 million. Scenarios that included vesting options or buyout options that increased the guarantee are raised but there’s no traction. Talks end, the season begins, and negotiations are shelved until the season’s end.

Nov. 3 – The Blue Jays make their first offer to Encarnacion, $70 million over four years, and it doesn’t move the needle. There is no formal counter-offer but Encarnacion’s camp floats the number of $125 million over five years. The sense is that Encarnacion is seeking a guarantee of $100 million or so.

Nov. 6 – Seeking to bring negotiations to a quick resolution, the Blue Jays break from typical negotiating practices and counter against themselves, upping their offer to $80 million over four years. A performance-based vesting option for a fifth year at $20 million, or a straight team option for $20 million with a buyout factored into the $80 million guarantee is raised. There’s no counter-offer from the Encarnacion camp, which wasn’t prepared to make a deal with free agency so near. There’s also uncertainty about where the collective bargaining agreement talks were going, and what that meant for his market. The Blue Jays, however, make clear they want some clarity on whether their offer is going to be good enough to get a deal done. If it’s not, there was no sense for either side to waste their time.

Nov. 7 – The Blue Jays arrive at the general managers meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., and extend qualifying offers to Encarnacion and Jose Bautista ahead of a 5 p.m. ET deadline. During a meeting with Encarnacion’s camp, the Blue Jays are asked if they will disengage if their offer is rejected. The reply is they won’t, but that they would aggressively pursue alternatives that could close off an Encarnacion return. Such a deal isn’t imminent, but could come quickly, the Blue Jays warn. Encarnacion, feeling rushed just as he arrived at free agency, asks for time to sleep on the offer and the Blue Jays agree, but reiterate that they need some clarity on where things stand with the market about to open.

Nov. 8 – Free agency opens at 12:01 a.m. ET, and both sides begin speaking with others. The impression the Blue Jays have is that the Encarnacion camp is set on getting $100 million. There’s communication between the team and the player, underlining that the Blue Jays could move on if he doesn’t accept. They want a signal that they’re in the ballpark. Speaking to reporters at the GM meetings, Ross Atkins says cryptically that, "Offers often times come on and off tables." By day’s end there’s no movement and it’s here that both sides appear to make critical miscalculations. The Encarnacion camp, despite being told dialogue with other players was set to start, doesn’t feel a divorce is imminent. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, conclude from the lack of urgency on the other side of the table that there’s at least one other team willing to be in the $80-$100 million range. Both were wrong.

Nov. 9 – While Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro is working on the signing of Cuban prospect Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Atkins opens talks with Adam Katz, the agent for Kendrys Morales. There is near instant traction between the sides. The Blue Jays believe the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians are also pursuing Morales. With things at a standstill with Encarnacion, they want to lock down a middle-of-the-order bat so they aren’t left exposed and can be more patient in filling their other holes.

I won't post the whole thing but it's pretty clear the Jays tried to get a deal done but had to move on when EE wanted to listen to more offers

 

[Walshy7]

my understanding (which is very limited) we dont have the prospect capital to trade for mcutchen, what would we have to give up for him? if it involves Stro or Sanchez i would rather not trade for him at all then

 

[theaub]

1992: Signed Winfield for 1 year and Morris for 2 years.
1993: Signed Molitor for 3 years, Stewart for 2 years, Cox for 1 year.

Outside of Encarnacion maybe being as impactful as Molitor, what kind of drunken sailor flexing went on, and how could the 2016 Blue Jays do the same thing? Outside of Bautista, Beltran, Holliday, and maybe Colon, everybody that is good wants more than a one/two year contract.

The romanticizing of the Jays spending never really makes sense to me. They were pulling in above average crowds since 1983, and by 1986 they were the AL leaders in attendance. Despite that, they only reached the 6th highest payroll once (1988) prior to 1992, not top 5, but 6th, and were generally sitting around 9-13th overall. Why didn't Gillick spend earlier?

Never mind the Yankees. They were the highest spending baseball team all throughout the 1980s and they had nothing to show for it. They had to build up a core just like any other dynasty.

It is both fair to say that contracts in the early 90's had less risk than today, but also those were legitimate, top-end signings (the Morris contract was the second highest AAV ever and the highest for a pitcher, when they re-signed Carter after '92 that was tied for the second highest AAV ever).

And your Encarnacion/Molitor thing is inaccurate IMO. Encarnacion is Dave Winfield. When Winfield (who had a rather big playoff hit of his own) rejected the Jays initial offer in '92 and then wanted to test the market during the winter meetings, Gillick also went out and immediately replaced him instead of letting the market play out. But he went and signed one of the elite hitters in the game for three years, not Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce.

(In all fairness to our management team, that is also the product of the two different ownership teams in place at their respective times).

e: just on some of the other points

- The romanticising of the Jays spending is basically related to the fact they won. If they had lost in the ALCS in '92/'93, with how things played out over the next 10 years the Jays would probably be in Portland or something right now. But Gillick tried to win with the homegrown core, then it kind of failed (if three ALCS failures in 7 years is failure), and then he just went all in. And there has to be a ton of credit to ownership for not just going all-in once, but doing it again (even moreso) after the '92 season and then doubling down to pick up one of the highest paid rentals at the '93 deadline. Then everyone just kind of ignores the fact that the Jays were a really medicore highly paid team in '94 with minimal upside because the strike came and flushed it all away. Couldn't have worked out much better for Gillick.

- Not that I was alive it for the start of it, but with SkyDome holding about 60% more people than Exhibition Stadium and having an extra 100-ish corporate boxes, I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays revenue outright doubled from 1988 to 1990. Which is probably why they had the extra payroll going forward. And the CAD also got consistently better from '86 onwards.