OEL Comparables

[Sinurgy]

I want to know which defensmen do you each think are comparable to OEL?

Below are a few articles from the past year or or so that ranks the NHL's best dmen. Some people are extremely high on OEL (because fancy stats) and others more reserved. Personally I'm somewhere in the middle (although I'd definitely say he's top 15) but really I'm not all that concerned with his rank, I just linked these articles as a way to reference the company he usually keeps when comparing #1 dmen.

\www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ranking-top-20-defencemen-nhl-numbers/
www.nhl.com/news/top-20-defenseman-nhl-top-players/c-290772362
www.si.com/nhl/photo/2016/08/17/ranking-nhls-30-best-defensemen
www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-23-defencemen-three-seasons/
www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2016/8/16/12481256/the-top-20-defensemen-in-the-nhl-right-now-for-real

Click to read more...

 

[RABBIT]

I think he's top 30. Closer to 30 as of late, but still think he's got it in him

 

[SniperHF]

FWIW HFBoards people voted him 7th in the off-season. Probably wouldn't be that high now though.
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...men-in-the-national-hockey-league-29.2389077/

I don't think you needed fancy stats to consider OEL a top 10 defenseman in the league in say 2015 and he was on a bottom feeder then too.

These days I'm not sure he's even top 20. As in right now, not potential to get back there.

In terms of guys I think he's on par with, I would have previously said Josi and Pietrangelo. But OEL isn't really a comparable of theirs in the strictest sense in terms of play-style. I've always considered his skill set somewhat unusual.

He's an excellent up ice passer when he's on. But even at his absolute best I've never considered him a top tier quarterback inside the zone where as I think most of the guys in his peer group are better at this. He's a shooter as evidenced by being 2nd in goalscoring over what I'd call his peak years between '13 to mid '16. Only Brent Burns had more, 65G vs 59G. Despite what people on the mainboard would say, OEL was really freaking good defensively at one time. I don't think he is anymore and that's part of what makes him unusual. He's never put all his skills together at once in a season at the highest level save maybe in 2015. Where as guys like Pietrangelo and Josi are more consistent in their play, OEL's is a roller coaster. Higher highs, lower lows. He probably *should* be one tier up on those guys but has never been able to do it.

 

[XX]

OEL has been injured and a headcase, sometimes both at the same time. I'm sure every GM trading for him is banking on him being that top 20 guy. There's no reason to believe he can't be.

 

[The Greatest 101]

FWIW HFBoards people voted him 7th in the off-season. Probably wouldn't be that high now though.
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...men-in-the-national-hockey-league-29.2389077/

I don't think you needed fancy stats to consider OEL a top 10 defenseman in the league in say 2015 and he was on a bottom feeder then too.

These days I'm not sure he's even top 20. As in right now, not potential to get back there.

In terms of guys I think he's on par with, I would have previously said Josi and Pietrangelo. But OEL isn't really a comparable of theirs in the strictest sense in terms of play-style. I've always considered his skill set somewhat unusual.

He's an excellent up ice passer when he's on. But even at his absolute best I've never considered him a top tier quarterback inside the zone where as I think most of the guys in his peer group are better at this. He's a shooter as evidenced by being 2nd in goalscoring over what I'd call his peak years between '13 to mid '16. Only Brent Burns had more, 65G vs 59G. Despite what people on the mainboard would say, OEL was really freaking good defensively at one time. I don't think he is anymore and that's part of what makes him unusual. He's never put all his skills together at once in a season at the highest level save maybe in 2015. Where as guys like Pietrangelo and Josi are more consistent in their play, OEL's is a roller coaster. Higher highs, lower lows. He probably *should* be one tier up on those guys but has never been able to do it.

Josi and OEL probably have the best stickwork among defensemen in the league right now. Petro is a tier below the other two offensively despite scoring the most this season imo.
No disrespect to your team, but it's hard to judge his defensive play when playing on a bottom feeder with little system. He's sound positionally in the D zone. Defensive issues can be fixed with better system and better coaching as long as you're not completely clueless about playing defense i.e. Derrick Pouliot.

 

[SniperHF]

No disrespect to your team, but it's hard to judge his defensive play when playing on a bottom feeder with little system. He's sound positionally in the D zone. Defensive issues can be fixed with better system and better coaching as long as you're not completely clueless about playing defense i.e. Derrick Pouliot.

See I think OEL's decline defensively started well before the last few years. In 2014 or so. I also think he was better in 14-15 and that team was every bit the trainwreck this one is whether it had a better system or not.
To a point I think it's a matter of emphasis. When he was a younger player Tippett had him out there being more conservative in his approach. As it became clear Yandle wasn't going to be here any longer and OEL started taking more of the offensive load he started playing a riskier game. But I'm not always sure it's for the better.

 

[rt]

More trade value than Matt Duchene had at the time of his trade.

 

[Sinurgy]

I feel like Josi and Pietrangelo are fair comparables.

 

[Jamieh]

I feel like Josi and Pietrangelo are fair comparables.

If the 3 of them were on the trade market which one goes last and for least return? It's OEL by a long shot. He isn't nearly as good as either of those.

 

[Jakey53]

If the 3 of them were on the trade market which one goes last and for least return? It's OEL by a long shot. He isn't nearly as good as either of those.

I don't know. They are all very good players, but only two play for good teams. You put OEL with the Blues or Nashville and the other two with the Coyotes things might look very different. All three are very good players, but saying OEL isn't nearly as good as the other two is wrong.

 

[Jakey53]

OEL has been injured and a headcase, sometimes both at the same time. I'm sure every GM trading for him is banking on him being that top 20 guy. There's no reason to believe he can't be.

Who said he is a headcase? Is this another one of your "assumptions" to make it sound like fact? I would think that any GM trading for OEL would consider him a top 20 guy. OEL is good, but he gets so much disrespect on this forum because of the team he plays with. Look at our team, where we are at in the standings. TGO would look crappy on this team.

 

[cobra427]

See I think OEL's decline defensively started well before the last few years. In 2014 or so. I also think he was better in 14-15 and that team was every bit the trainwreck this one is whether it had a better system or not.
To a point I think it's a matter of emphasis. When he was a younger player Tippett had him out there being more conservative in his approach. As it became clear Yandle wasn't going to be here any longer and OEL started taking more of the offensive load he started playing a riskier game. But I'm not always sure it's for the better.

When was the last time OEL had a true 1RHD playing with him? Its been 4 years maybe. OEL has played with Murphy/Demers/Z/Schenn the last 3 years. Some would argue those 4 are border line 2nd/3rd pairing D. This has made him look worse on D especially on a bad team that can't score. OEL is still our best offensive weapon even today.

 

[Jakey53]

When was the last time OEL had a true 1RHD playing with him? Its been 4 years maybe. OEL has played with Murphy/Demers/Z/Schenn the last 3 years. Some would argue those 4 are border line 2nd/3rd pairing D. This has made him look worse on D especially on a bad team that can't score. OEL is still our best offensive weapon even today.

....and our best player.

 

[SniperHF]

When was the last time OEL had a true 1RHD playing with him? Its been 4 years maybe.

Arguably never. Didn't seem to slow him down before.

 

[Name Nameless]

What has the empty-netters done for his +/-? Anyone made any stats on that?

Related, but probably harder to assess, what has bad goal-tending done for it...

 

[rt]

Raanta came back after the Domingue trade on 11/02 (he was injured again for another 7 game stretch after that, but Wedgewood did a borderline decent job in that time (see below):

2.98 .908
2.68 .918
2.66 .915
2.99 .906
2.99 .901
3.02 .903
2.74 .911
2.93 .909

^ So I think the date to look at is 11/02/17 for when OEL's +/- should be LESS horrific than it is:

OEL is -22 in 37GP w/24:19/gp
Goligoski is -14 in 36gp w/23:25/gp
Demers is a -7 in 37gp w/ 21:36/gp

..still pretty bad.

The Coyotes as a team have a -28 total goal differential in that same span. We have had only 64 even strength goals for in those 37 games. We have had 108 even strength goals against in that span, making the team a -44 in +/- since Domingue left and our current tandem took the reigns.

 

[SniperHF]

What has the empty-netters done for his +/-? Anyone made any stats on that?

Ehhh, I remember having to manually track this via game logs last time I looked it up. Maybe there's an easier way I don't know about. I'd guess it's a lot though. But +/- is dumb anyway.

Related, but probably harder to assess, what has bad goal-tending done for it...

I'm 99.9% sure there's a save percentage adjusted stat out there somewhere but I can't remember what it's called.

OEL's Expected goals(5 on5) against (it's a proxy number based on patterns of shot attempts against) is 35.2. His actual goals against number is 47. I'd imagine the empty netters are a lot of noise in that as empty net situations are still considered 5 on 5 I believe for stat purposes.

League average sv% is .913. Coyotes team sv% is .894.

 

[cobra427]

Arguably never. Didn't seem to slow him down before.

AA/Rosivol/Dmo were all more competent then Schenn/Murphy/Demers/Z on the D side of the ice.

 

[SniperHF]

AA/Rosivol/Dmo were all more competent then Schenn/Murphy/Demers/Z on the D side of the ice.

Yes, but I don't think they were #1 right defensemen either. Morris usually played with Yandle.
And yet OEL's best years were with a broken down Michalek and an extremely green Murphy. Demers is at least as good as Murphy was at his best, probably better. Demers shouldn't be holding OEL back if Murphy and Michalek didn't.

 

[hbk]

Raanta came back after the Domingue trade on 11/02 (he was injured again for another 7 game stretch after that, but Wedgewood did a borderline decent job in that time (see below):

2.98 .908
2.68 .918
2.66 .915
2.99 .906
2.99 .901
3.02 .903
2.74 .911
2.93 .909

^ So I think the date to look at is 11/02/17 for when OEL's +/- should be LESS horrific than it is:

OEL is -22 in 37GP w/24:19/gp
Goligoski is -14 in 36gp w/23:25/gp
Demers is a -7 in 37gp w/ 21:36/gp

..still pretty bad.

The Coyotes as a team have a -28 total goal differential in that same span. We have had only 64 even strength goals for in those 37 games. We have had 108 even strength goals against in that span, making the team a -44 in +/- since Domingue left and our current tandem took the reigns.

How many empty netters has OEL been on for?

 

[Jamieh]

I don't know. They are all very good players, but only two play for good teams. You put OEL with the Blues or Nashville and the other two with the Coyotes things might look very different. All three are very good players, but saying OEL isn't nearly as good as the other two is wrong.

No actually it isn't. Those other two players are superior to OEL no matter what team they are on. It's nice to like our own guy but if we are being real our guy comes in well into the bottom half of number 1 D men if there was one per team. The other two guys mentioned are in the top half. There are teirs to each position in hockey, Josi and Pietrangelo are tier 1 or close as D men. OEL is tier two at best. There is nothing wrong with that but he has not shown in quite some time that he is a top tier guy.

 

[rt]

In any event I like OEL a lot and I wish he'd stay. If he makes it extremely clear to Chayka that he really, really wants to stay, I hope they keep him. If he's vacillating and/or stalling for time and/or making personnel or team performance demands or other conditions or is requiring a whole lot of convincing, I'd just as soon trade him prior to this TDL to maximize his value, rather than making a pure rental deal 12.5 months from now.

 

[Sinurgy]

If the 3 of them were on the trade market which one goes last and for least return? It's OEL by a long shot. He isn't nearly as good as either of those.

You're a known OEL hater though so kind of have to take that into consideration. Don't get me wrong your opinion is just as worthy/worthless as anyone else around here (myself included) but it's pretty clear the rest of the hockey world does not agree with our "tier 2" take on him.

 

[Jamieh]

You're a known OEL hater though so kind of have to take that into consideration. Don't get me wrong your opinion is just as worthy/worthless as anyone else around here (myself included) but it's pretty clear the rest of the hockey world does not agree with our "tier 2" take on him.

I don't hate OEL. I just think there is a tier of D that is above him. Guys like Doughty, Keith, Karlsson, Hedman, Josi, Pietrangelo, and so on. IMO OEL is not in the discussion as that group. And reportedly there are two from that group also available if the price is right. I would put OEL closer to a Yandle player than a Doughty player. And there is nothing wrong with that.

 

[samabam]

I like OEL, he has provided the Coyotes with some very solid seasons.
But right now I just dont know what has changed since 2015. For me it almost looks as if he is part of the problem with the Coyotes and I have grown a bit weary of him.
He has brainfarts on the ice I've never noticed in this magnitude even in his rookie season and they are way more common than back then. I'm torn on whether to keep him, a player is either part of the solution or has to go and right now I am not conviced that OEL is a part of the solution to the on (and off) ice problems the Coyotes face.