Armourboy
Hey! You suck!
I think he may sneak in as a finalist but I don't think he will win. I think his age also hurts him a bit as I think many GM's will think he will have other opportunities.
Observations XXXI
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Predsanddead24
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GoldOnGold
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Porter Stoutheart
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Since we have to give Saros a new contract next season, I'm all for him not getting a Vezina nod, tbh. I've always thought he could be #1. But even still, I'm not convinced he's the guy I want to lock in to a long-term Vezina-winner style of salary just yet. I wanted 4x$4M even a month ago. And tbh his great play hasn't really moved the needle for me on that. I still want to see him have a strong start to a season, and I want to see if he can maintain it across an 82-game schedule. Then maybe a juicier contract could be coming his way. Right now though... it's still too soon... I hold on the 4x4.
Can anyone share a reliable source listing Pred players who are eligible for the Expansion? Cap Friendly has one but I don’t think it’s right.
Armourboy
Hey! You suck!
Porter Stoutheart
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Porter Stoutheart
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They are all listed as exposed/eligible. Well, not Patrick Harper.
Where I circled in red below... that's all the exempt guys. Everybody else needs to be protected or else is exposed. (Well except for Josi who is automatically protected due to NMC).
Sheesh. We are gonna lose a good young player, no matter what.
I think we almost have to trade Ellis before the draft and go 7/3 and be prepared to lose Carrier.
Or, trade Ellis, go 4/4 and lose either Arvy, Duchene or Kunin.
Or accept the fact that we are gonna lose Ellis and expose him and go 7/3 (knowing that if they take Ellis obviously they wont take Carrier). Gets us no assets for Ellis but saves us losing anyone else.
I think we almost have to trade Ellis before the draft and go 7/3 and be prepared to lose Carrier.
Or, trade Ellis, go 4/4 and lose either Arvy, Duchene or Kunin.
Or accept the fact that we are gonna lose Ellis and expose him and go 7/3 (knowing that if they take Ellis obviously they wont take Carrier). Gets us no assets for Ellis but saves us losing anyone else.
Off topic, but it still is completely ridiculous to me that Vegas will not lose a player in this expansion draft.
Armourboy
Hey! You suck!
Just one more reason I hate Vegas.
Porter Stoutheart
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My latest lean is go 7-3-1 and expose Ellis. Despite previously arguing against losing his asset value. I'm just too happy with the Herd Line now, basically. Surely if Ellis is exposed, Seattle wouldn't gamble on taking Carrier? Surely?
NoNecksCurse
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Correct option is bolded except protect kunin instead of johansen
I would protect Forsberg kunin Jeannot trenin then Josi ekholm fabbro carrier and saros
then I would try to offer some compensation for them to take Duchene or johansen.
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Porter Stoutheart
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This is a nice option. If Seattle had Ellis and Arvidsson to choose from, they should be very happy. And for us... we can clearly replace them from within, so it's no tragedy for us to lose one either.
I don't think we need to pay the bribe to get them to take Duchene or Johansen. Not if it's a "real" bribe anyway, like not a 1st round pick. But if they would consider taking Borowiecki as a "bribe", uh, sure.
I think we could probably get more for Ellis than what any of the additional 3 forwards we'd be protecting are worth. I've leaned towards 8-1 and protecting Carrier, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Fabbro, Forsberg, Kunin, RV, Saros. I think seattle would take one of Jarnkrok or Sissons as I don't think they'd gamble on the limited NHL time from Jeannot or Trenin and they won't want to buy a 8M paperweight (Duchene and Joey). Trade Ellis after the expansion draft for an upgrade on whatever we lose.My latest lean is go 7-3-1 and expose Ellis. Despite previously arguing against losing his asset value. I'm just too happy with the Herd Line now, basically. Surely if Ellis is exposed, Seattle wouldn't gamble on taking Carrier? Surely?
Porter Stoutheart
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Also a valid option.
I sure hope we get more than 4 or 5 more games to evaluate all this.
Armourboy
Hey! You suck!
I'm just afraid Poile is going to do exactly what we hope he doesn't and thats protect Ellis, Duchene and Joey.
If I was GM and thinking of leaving Ellis exposed I'd be calling Seattle and asking if they wanted to toss a sweetener my way to "convince" me to leave a legit top defenseman like that unprotected. No idea if they'd go for it but it can't hurt to ask.
wadesworld
Registered User
Since we have to give Saros a new contract next season, I'm all for him not getting a Vezina nod, tbh. I've always thought he could be #1. But even still, I'm not convinced he's the guy I want to lock in to a long-term Vezina-winner style of salary just yet. I wanted 4x$4M even a month ago. And tbh his great play hasn't really moved the needle for me on that. I still want to see him have a strong start to a season, and I want to see if he can maintain it across an 82-game schedule. Then maybe a juicier contract could be coming his way. Right now though... it's still too soon... I hold on the 4x4.
I wouldn't be opposed to a bit more cash, say 4x6 but I agree on the term. He hasn't proven himself enough yet for a super-lengthy deal that could make him impossible to trade if he falls off.
Scoresberg
In Trotz We Trust?
I don't think there's any way Seattle is going to take Jeannot or Trenin. Those guys have little track record in the league and are flying under the radar right now. We're going to be one of the few teams forced to expose a proven NHL forward in Sissons, Duchene, Jarnkrok etc. and I don't see Seattle passing that opportunity up for a guy who has 15 games of NHL experience. Same applies for Carrier. If you take a look at what kind of players other teams are going to expose, there's a deep bench for youngish NHL defensemen.
Also, leaving Ellis exposed, while long-term would be a good move, is simply bad asset management. He's regarded as a legit top-pair defenseman around the league right and has value in a trade.
As for my protection list, I still stand by:
Forsberg, Arvidsson, Kunin, Johansen
Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Fabbro
Also, leaving Ellis exposed, while long-term would be a good move, is simply bad asset management. He's regarded as a legit top-pair defenseman around the league right and has value in a trade.
As for my protection list, I still stand by:
Forsberg, Arvidsson, Kunin, Johansen
Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Fabbro
Kat Predator
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While the term on Ellis' contract doesn't look great given his recent struggles with injuries, etc., his contract hasn't become an absolute boat anchor in comparison to some on others. (Some examples: Vlasic, Seabrook, Johnson, Boychuk, Edler.) It's a hefty contract, for sure, and it's not entirely clear if Ellis brings the heavy sort of game that Hynes seems to want to install here now. And all the injuries bring his durability and long term prospects into some question.
One of the things this season showed though is that we have some good up-and-coming depth on D. It proved the value of Ekholm, both his skill and leadership. The top 8 at the start of the season included Borowiecki, Tinordi, and Sbisa. So there is depth stepping up and we will have some options on what to do with the expansion draft.
101st_fan
I taught Yoda
I fully expect a deal between Poile and Francis to determine who Seattle takes in the expansion draft. While Ellis likely has decent value on the trade market, there are several counterbalancing points concerning the expansion draft.
Porter Stoutheart
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I really really want to think that too. Most of the season I've thought that. But... as more and more of us would choose them if we were running Seattle, well... it does at least raise the question. Maybe an NHL GM would feel differently. But he's got 30 players, and a lot of middle-lineup experienced players already from his other picks... he can definitely afford to take a few gambles on younger players as well.
I'm more comfortable with exposing Carrier than Trenin/Jeannot. Because indeed there is a deep bench of D, including younger D, who should be available to Seattle, and I'm not sure there has been highly visible proof that Carrier is as good as we think/hope yet. It's more Jeannot and Trenin that I'd be slightly worried about. They represent a rarer breed of player - if they still have any further upside in production, anyway.
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