bernmeister
Registered User
I expect this to be my last projection prior to Friday nite’s draft.
I have come to the following conclusions:
CAR might deal 2OA, but they want so much above and beyond massive payment, that it is not happening, and they will use the pick.
MON may get ROR, but it will not involve 3OA. I do not see a high enough C that is a fit being made available, so Habs will use it probably on Kok-meister as reported. [As pertains to Rangers, Zib + deserves a 2nd and is too low at 3OA and Hayes, Rangers prefer to keep then add for 3OA.]
This brings OTT and 4OA. They will keep and use the pick, unless there is more than anyone wants to pay, which will not happen from NYR. EKarlsson will be dealt, with Ryan required as part of the trade. The return will not be anything like what Sens fans want b’c Ryan will severely diminish further EK which is being moved as a rental, which is a gamble. It will also be more than the chump change deals being seen at NYR board.
Accordingly since EK has more value now than later [also risk of injury avoided], he will be moved at this draft to NYR, barring something unforeseen. NY will keep its 2018s but send
Andersson elc + Skjei rfa + TB2019 2nd [can morph into a 1st] + Staal, 5.7 reduced half to 2.85 x3
for
Karlsson
Ryan, full pop
which will provide instant cap relief with options for almost complete recovery of Ryan [b’c after this season, Staal is peanuts to buyout/move]. Rangers can offer EK a full 12.5 per but for 4 seasons only. If the rebuild is not fast enough, there can be an amicable relocation of EK for significant assets. While NY should build around others and move ready to play Andersson, he and Skjei [looks good w/Chabot as LDs] are young/cheap.
That leaves 5OA-8OA as possible upgrade options
1. Spooner + Tambellini NYR 2019 2nd for 32OA [Buf 2nd]
Sabes want guys now. While it is unlikely Rangers 2nd next year is 32OA slotting, it is still a 2nd next year for a 2nd this year, w/two rfas useful to BUF being added.
2. Zuc + NJD 2nd 48OA for Dallas 2018 1st [13OA].
Adds to Stars push now gives draft day home fans a 2nd; NYR gets pick for player.
3. Smith and Georgiev for Darling and McKeown
Canes net issues unresolved and Darling is better off moved. Smith is almost same cap hit, term. CAR rehabilitates the D, which it excels at, NY rehabs the G, where coach Allaire has no =. Georgiev is unproven but at min is a stopgap, possibly more, as the search goes on. Rangers need RD, so McKeown.
4. Pionk + Darling for 10OA + Sekera
Pionk is actual righty RD. Darling, would be better after Allaire fixes him [if he could resurrect Pavlec, he should do Darling in his sleep], but EDM picks up possible answer to back up Talbot while recovering 1.2m ish each yr x 3, worth the pick.
5. DeAngelo + TB 1st [28OA] for Fox, 2019 3rd, 2020 2nd plus conditional 1st in 2022, which is only if Fox does not sign w/Rangers
Rangers gamble they can sign and after min time on the farm, use Fox competing w/3RD and as relief for 1RD, 2RD. Flames get DeA, a former 19OA, RD on elc now, which fits into giving them options. Also get 1st this year for later, lesser picks. Not likely to have to cough up the conditional.
6. 13OA + 26OA + NYR 2nd [39OA] for 8OA + CHI + TOR 2018 3rds [69OA, 87OA]
Obvious pick movement to max strategic interests. NYR moves up, but CHI gets better value on other picks
7. Namest. + Sekera + 2019 NYR 1st for 5OA and cap dump Bolland 5.5 expiring
Rangers move up, bury Bolland, hopefully on IR, Sekera shoots left, plays either side, and is recovering from injury; he’s a good bet, and a nice trade in value on Bolland. That pick flip + Namest. is acceptable comp esp for a team moving to go cup finals now.
8. Buchnevich elc + 10OA for 6OA + Andreas Athanasiou, rfa
Win win. DET gets talented W on elc and still picks top 10; balance includes move AA.
If Winged Wheel wants netminder prospect Halverson, who has been eclipsed by others, the former 2nd rounder, local kid from Traverse City, MI, can be had for free [.7m+ elc expiring]. If cap is tight, we can take acceptable cap dump to offset, possibly a bit more [Ouellet, if you have no takers].
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Summary Rangers acquire useful assets. Next season’s lineup does not have to do more than set up for competing the following one, so stop gap measures are fine. That said, NY acquires great picks all presumed to be on the farm for the following year, plus additional assets, principally EK.
Sign two placeholders: JVR, who wants to come here we think and can shoot, but defense? 1 yr small overpay 5.5-6m. Also return Grabner, top dollar at not 2 yrs same deal, but 1 yr, w/club option to extend 1 yr. Buyout clause if legal, probably safe not to break down over short term but take no unnecessary chance.
Roster:
Kreider - Nieves - Zib
Grabner - Hayes - JVR
AA - Chytil - Fast
Vesey - Lettieri - Ryan
reserves: Gropp/FA stopgap, but Howden likely 2019 2nd half this season as 3C pushing Chytil to W. Ryan only til he is moved, unless modern medicine can return use of his hands, and even then, prefer to move his contract.
pushing it: Ronning likely too far to go but if he shocks in camp, be ready
follow up: Also, post AV, give Kreider and Nieves a fair chance to see if they use their speed to get something extra – synergy! While AA would be faster pure speed and interesting to see if any chemistry, Zib a righty shot should go to RW, and is the established bookend to LW Kreider. Nieves has size and speed and takes FOs well, and should see if he can be support 1C placeholder with his Ws driving the play.
Bigras - EKarlsson
stopgap - Shattenkirk
Gilmour - McKeown possibly Fox
Bigras is lefty shot, usually plays righty
reserves: stopgaps
pushing it: Rykov, Hajek, Lindgren, Day
follow up: assumes the above pushing it are not ready until late if at all this year. But as soon as they are, LD slots are readily ready. That inspires competition and hope in these 4 that if they work hard with the staff, they can get to big club sooner than later. Lindgren has already looked good with Fox in international competition.
Hank [unless he consents to the extremely unlikely 1% scenario above]
promote, probably Marek Mazanec, with Hulska, seeing daylight, making a push.
There’s more work for GMJG, but with the picks/Shesty down the road, this is a solid start and follow through.
I have come to the following conclusions:
CAR might deal 2OA, but they want so much above and beyond massive payment, that it is not happening, and they will use the pick.
MON may get ROR, but it will not involve 3OA. I do not see a high enough C that is a fit being made available, so Habs will use it probably on Kok-meister as reported. [As pertains to Rangers, Zib + deserves a 2nd and is too low at 3OA and Hayes, Rangers prefer to keep then add for 3OA.]
This brings OTT and 4OA. They will keep and use the pick, unless there is more than anyone wants to pay, which will not happen from NYR. EKarlsson will be dealt, with Ryan required as part of the trade. The return will not be anything like what Sens fans want b’c Ryan will severely diminish further EK which is being moved as a rental, which is a gamble. It will also be more than the chump change deals being seen at NYR board.
Accordingly since EK has more value now than later [also risk of injury avoided], he will be moved at this draft to NYR, barring something unforeseen. NY will keep its 2018s but send
Andersson elc + Skjei rfa + TB2019 2nd [can morph into a 1st] + Staal, 5.7 reduced half to 2.85 x3
for
Karlsson
Ryan, full pop
which will provide instant cap relief with options for almost complete recovery of Ryan [b’c after this season, Staal is peanuts to buyout/move]. Rangers can offer EK a full 12.5 per but for 4 seasons only. If the rebuild is not fast enough, there can be an amicable relocation of EK for significant assets. While NY should build around others and move ready to play Andersson, he and Skjei [looks good w/Chabot as LDs] are young/cheap.
That leaves 5OA-8OA as possible upgrade options
1. Spooner + Tambellini NYR 2019 2nd for 32OA [Buf 2nd]
Sabes want guys now. While it is unlikely Rangers 2nd next year is 32OA slotting, it is still a 2nd next year for a 2nd this year, w/two rfas useful to BUF being added.
2. Zuc + NJD 2nd 48OA for Dallas 2018 1st [13OA].
Adds to Stars push now gives draft day home fans a 2nd; NYR gets pick for player.
3. Smith and Georgiev for Darling and McKeown
Canes net issues unresolved and Darling is better off moved. Smith is almost same cap hit, term. CAR rehabilitates the D, which it excels at, NY rehabs the G, where coach Allaire has no =. Georgiev is unproven but at min is a stopgap, possibly more, as the search goes on. Rangers need RD, so McKeown.
4. Pionk + Darling for 10OA + Sekera
Pionk is actual righty RD. Darling, would be better after Allaire fixes him [if he could resurrect Pavlec, he should do Darling in his sleep], but EDM picks up possible answer to back up Talbot while recovering 1.2m ish each yr x 3, worth the pick.
5. DeAngelo + TB 1st [28OA] for Fox, 2019 3rd, 2020 2nd plus conditional 1st in 2022, which is only if Fox does not sign w/Rangers
Rangers gamble they can sign and after min time on the farm, use Fox competing w/3RD and as relief for 1RD, 2RD. Flames get DeA, a former 19OA, RD on elc now, which fits into giving them options. Also get 1st this year for later, lesser picks. Not likely to have to cough up the conditional.
6. 13OA + 26OA + NYR 2nd [39OA] for 8OA + CHI + TOR 2018 3rds [69OA, 87OA]
Obvious pick movement to max strategic interests. NYR moves up, but CHI gets better value on other picks
7. Namest. + Sekera + 2019 NYR 1st for 5OA and cap dump Bolland 5.5 expiring
Rangers move up, bury Bolland, hopefully on IR, Sekera shoots left, plays either side, and is recovering from injury; he’s a good bet, and a nice trade in value on Bolland. That pick flip + Namest. is acceptable comp esp for a team moving to go cup finals now.
8. Buchnevich elc + 10OA for 6OA + Andreas Athanasiou, rfa
Win win. DET gets talented W on elc and still picks top 10; balance includes move AA.
If Winged Wheel wants netminder prospect Halverson, who has been eclipsed by others, the former 2nd rounder, local kid from Traverse City, MI, can be had for free [.7m+ elc expiring]. If cap is tight, we can take acceptable cap dump to offset, possibly a bit more [Ouellet, if you have no takers].
---------------
Summary Rangers acquire useful assets. Next season’s lineup does not have to do more than set up for competing the following one, so stop gap measures are fine. That said, NY acquires great picks all presumed to be on the farm for the following year, plus additional assets, principally EK.
Sign two placeholders: JVR, who wants to come here we think and can shoot, but defense? 1 yr small overpay 5.5-6m. Also return Grabner, top dollar at not 2 yrs same deal, but 1 yr, w/club option to extend 1 yr. Buyout clause if legal, probably safe not to break down over short term but take no unnecessary chance.
Roster:
Kreider - Nieves - Zib
Grabner - Hayes - JVR
AA - Chytil - Fast
Vesey - Lettieri - Ryan
reserves: Gropp/FA stopgap, but Howden likely 2019 2nd half this season as 3C pushing Chytil to W. Ryan only til he is moved, unless modern medicine can return use of his hands, and even then, prefer to move his contract.
pushing it: Ronning likely too far to go but if he shocks in camp, be ready
follow up: Also, post AV, give Kreider and Nieves a fair chance to see if they use their speed to get something extra – synergy! While AA would be faster pure speed and interesting to see if any chemistry, Zib a righty shot should go to RW, and is the established bookend to LW Kreider. Nieves has size and speed and takes FOs well, and should see if he can be support 1C placeholder with his Ws driving the play.
Bigras - EKarlsson
stopgap - Shattenkirk
Gilmour - McKeown possibly Fox
Bigras is lefty shot, usually plays righty
reserves: stopgaps
pushing it: Rykov, Hajek, Lindgren, Day
follow up: assumes the above pushing it are not ready until late if at all this year. But as soon as they are, LD slots are readily ready. That inspires competition and hope in these 4 that if they work hard with the staff, they can get to big club sooner than later. Lindgren has already looked good with Fox in international competition.
Hank [unless he consents to the extremely unlikely 1% scenario above]
promote, probably Marek Mazanec, with Hulska, seeing daylight, making a push.
There’s more work for GMJG, but with the picks/Shesty down the road, this is a solid start and follow through.
