Speculation: NYR Changeup

[bfaust30]

Few trades and off-season moves I think would be some nice to get a different feel for next year:

- Neal Pionk + Vlad Namestnikov and maybe a small add for Tyler Toffoli
- Brendan Smith + 2019 3rd round pick to OTT for future considerations (OTT needs to hit the floor and Rangers shed salary)
- Jimmy Vesey paired with Jets 1st round pick to move up in draft and shed more cap
- Sign Kreider 5-6 years around 6.5 per
- Sign Buchnevich 4 years @ 4 per
- Sign Deangelo 4 years @ 2.7 per
- Lemieux 2 years @ around 1.6

Remaining Salary at expected 83 mill cap space
- ~18.5 mill

FA:
- Panarin 11m x 7

Lineup Next Year:

Buchnevich-Zibanejad-Panarin
Kreider-Chytil-Toffoli
Howden-Andersson-Kravtsov
Fast-Strome-Lemieux

Skjei-Deangelo
Hajek-Shattenkirk
Staal-(Gilmour/Free Agent/Trade/Camp Battle)

Hank
Georgie
Shets

Click to read more...

 

[danielpalfredsson]

A 3rd isn't enough to take that Smith contract. He's owed almost 8 million in dead salary. We have seen teams give up a 2nd to move 1 year of a similar cap hit with 6 figures owing (Savard to NJD).

It'll cost at least that Jets 1st. Sens aren't paying cash to hit the cap floor so dealing them Smith doesn't help them. A contract like Franzen's you could make the argument that it helps Ottawa, but not a contract with 8M and a lockout bonus.

 

[bfaust30]

A 3rd isn't enough to take that Smith contract. He's owed almost 8 million in dead salary. We have seen teams give up a 2nd to move 1 year of a similar cap hit with 6 figures owing (Savard to NJD).

It'll cost at least that Jets 1st. Sens aren't paying cash to hit the cap floor so dealing them Smith doesn't help them. A contract like Franzen's you could make the argument that it helps Ottawa, but not a contract with 8M and a lockout bonus.

I mean its not like he would not be playing. He is capable of being a solid 3rd pairing dman and he played pretty well as a 4th line forward. I dont think Smith is like a Dave Bolland or David Clarkson where a first is needed to unload on his contract. His play can be serviceable somewhere, just not in NY anymore.

 

[Calad]

Few trades and off-season moves I think would be some nice to get a different feel for next year:

- Neal Pionk + Vlad Namestnikov and maybe a small add for Tyler Toffoli
- Brendan Smith + 2019 3rd round pick to OTT for future considerations (OTT needs to hit the floor and Rangers shed salary)
- Jimmy Vesey paired with Jets 1st round pick to move up in draft and shed more cap
- Sign Kreider 5-6 years around 6.5 per
- Sign Buchnevich 4 years @ 4 per
- Sign Deangelo 4 years @ 2.7 per
- Lemieux 2 years @ around 1.6

Remaining Salary at expected 83 mill cap space
- ~18.5 mill

FA:
- Panarin 11m x 7

Lineup Next Year:

Buchnevich-Zibanejad-Panarin
Kreider-Chytil-Toffoli
Howden-Andersson-Kravtsov
Fast-Strome-Lemieux

Skjei-Deangelo
Hajek-Shattenkirk
Staal-(Gilmour/Free Agent/Trade/Camp Battle)

Hank
Georgie
Shets

Your projections are incredibly optimistic in our favor, aside from Panarin and 7 x 11

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I mean its not like he would not be playing. He is capable of being a solid 3rd pairing dman and he played pretty well as a 4th line forward. I dont think Smith is like a Dave Bolland or David Clarkson where a first is needed to unload on his contract. His play can be serviceable somewhere, just not in NY anymore.

He is a 7th defender at best who is owed nearly 8 million over two seasons (including a lockout bonus). No team is taking that in for a 3rd. Looking at the history of cap dump trades, there is nothing comparable to that.

Not trying to come off as a dick, just being a bit blunt. I don't think it is realistic at all.

 

[Calad]

A 3rd isn't enough to take that Smith contract. He's owed almost 8 million in dead salary. We have seen teams give up a 2nd to move 1 year of a similar cap hit with 6 figures owing (Savard to NJD).

It'll cost at least that Jets 1st. Sens aren't paying cash to hit the cap floor so dealing them Smith doesn't help them. A contract like Franzen's you could make the argument that it helps Ottawa, but not a contract with 8M and a lockout bonus.

Rangers can easily retain half on a potential Smith trade, and even still Gorton would hang up the phone laughing at "it will cost at least Jets 1st to take this contract". If that is the case then we will happily retain his services for the remainder of the tank, as I am certain you are aware.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Rangers can easily retain half on a potential Smith trade, and even still Gorton would hang up the phone laughing at "it will cost at least Jets 1st to take this contract". If that is the case then we will happily retain his services for the remainder of the tank, as I am certain you are aware.

I'm not negotiating, this is a forum post not a GM call.

I doubt they'd package a 1st to move him. I agree with that. I doubt a team is taking that contract at full value for less than that.

 

[bfaust30]

He is a 7th defender at best who is owed nearly 8 million over two seasons (including a lockout bonus). No team is taking that in for a 3rd. Looking at the history of cap dump trades, there is nothing comparable to that.

Not trying to come off as a dick, just being a bit blunt. I don't think it is realistic at all.

I understand that is was Chiarelli, but Petrovic for Wideman and a 3rd. Petrovic way worse than Smith. Colin Wilson for a 4th round pick. Marcus Kruger got very little. Im just saying stuff like this can happen.

 

[Calad]

I'm not negotiating, this is a forum post not a GM call.

I doubt they'd package a 1st to move him. I agree with that. I doubt a team is taking that contract at full value for less than that.

Whoa, hold your horses buddy, this place is full of GMs

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I understand that is was Chiarelli, but Petrovic for Wideman and a 3rd. Petrovic way worse than Smith. Colin Wilson for a 4th round pick. Marcus Kruger got very little. Im just saying stuff like this can happen.

Petrovic isn't the same kind of trade. He made under 2 million on an expiring contract. The trade was made as a hail Mary for Edmonton to help their defense (similar to when they acquired Wideman before that), there were no long term consequences since it was an expiring contract with much less money owed than the Smith one.

Wilson was nowhere near as devalued as Smith. It wasn't a cap dump trade in the sense of COL saying we don't like the player but if you make it worth it for us we'll take him. It was a cap dump trade in a sense of COL saying we like the player, but we know you have no leverage here because you want to move him and there aren't many suitors because his contract is inflated, so we're gonna get a discount for him.

The Kruger situation was in expansion, and it was a bit more complicated.

At the end of the day, for Smtih to have value with his contract bundled with a 3rd, a team has to think he can come in and be a player for them the same way COL thought Wilson could for them. That's not happening. The guy has been awful for two years.

If there is retained salary, or the Rangers taking back another contract, that changes the dynamic, but we're talking about at full salary here as indicated in the OP.

 

[justafan22]

Petrovic isn't the same kind of trade. He made under 2 million on an expiring contract. The trade was made as a hail Mary for Edmonton to help their defense (similar to when they acquired Wideman before that), there were no long term consequences since it was an expiring contract with much less money owed than the Smith one.

Wilson was nowhere near as devalued as Smith. It wasn't a cap dump trade in the sense of COL saying we don't like the player but if you make it worth it for us we'll take him. It was a cap dump trade in a sense of COL saying we like the player, but we know you have no leverage here because you want to move him and there aren't many suitors because his contract is inflated, so we're gonna get a discount for him.

The Kruger situation was in expansion, and it was a bit more complicated.

At the end of the day, for Smtih to have value with his contract bundled with a 3rd, a team has to think he can come in and be a player for them the same way COL thought Wilson could for them. That's not happening. The guy has been awful for two years.

If there is retained salary, or the Rangers taking back another contract, that changes the dynamic, but we're talking about at full salary here as indicated in the OP.

Smith + a 2nd for ? seems fair.

 

[drw02]

Few trades and off-season moves I think would be some nice to get a different feel for next year:

FA:
- Panarin 11m x 7

Lineup Next Year:

Buchnevich-Zibanejad-Panarin
Kreider-Chytil-Toffoli
Howden-Andersson-Kravtsov
Fast-Strome-Lemieux

Skjei-Deangelo
Hajek-Shattenkirk
Staal-(Gilmour/Free Agent/Trade/Camp Battle)

Hank
Georgie
Shets

He's going to Florida with Coach Q. New York can't compete with Miami weather and taxes. And Florida has a better team in place.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Smith + a 2nd for ? seems fair.

If the pick is the Rangers 2nd (#37?), and the player is Condon who is owed 3M in salary against a 1.4M buried cap hit, I could see that working.

At that point, NYR are paying the Sens a high 2nd in order to take about 7.3M in dead cap and 4.755M in dead salary. Sens only care about the salary implications.

I don't think Ottawa would do it though because of that potential 1M lockout bonus. They seem very adverse to those.

I only think the Rangers would do it if they have their sights on making a big splash in free agency with Karlsson or Panarin, either one of which could end up costing 11M-13M for whoever ends up signing them. The Rangers cap situation is not bad enough for there to be a lot of urgency to pay to move that contract unless it is part of a bigger move, like they can justify giving up 37 or the WPG 1st because they need to do it to facilitate opening up the cap needed to comfortably sign Erik Karlsson to a 7 year 13 million AAV type deal, which is probably what it'll take.

 

[jaywills1020]

He's going to Florida with Coach Q. New York can't compete with Miami weather and taxes. And Florida has a better team in place.

Not saying he’s gonna sign here but Florida can’t compete with Brighton Beach. And nyc is nyc.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Not saying he’s gonna sign here but Florida can’t compete with Brighton Beach. And nyc is nyc.

Neither team are any good and for that reason he won’t join either!

 

[Joey Bones]

No

 

[Shootertooter]

He's going to Florida with Coach Q. New York can't compete with Miami weather and taxes. And Florida has a better team in place.

Not so sure, Florida doesn't have Brooklyn and Brighton Beach.

 

[bfaust30]

Honestly does Florida have a better team in place? Sure they have great forwards, but defense is lacking and if they dont get bob in FA. Goalie situation is not good at all. Rangers have some of the best prospects in between the pipes and on the back end. Forwards will be addressed this off-season

 

[TGWL]

Honestly does Florida have a better team in place? Sure they have great forwards, but defense is lacking and if they dont get bob in FA. Goalie situation is not good at all. Rangers have some of the best prospects in between the pipes and on the back end. Forwards will be addressed this off-season

Currently, yeah, they have a better team in place. You can go up an down the line-up, on paper it's not even close. In 3 years, probably not.

 

[Beacon]

The Rangers shouldn't be shedding salary while signing Panarin and Kreider. Either rebuild or go for it hard,not both at once. Since Cup contention is not at all realistic and even playoff contention is extremely unlikely next season, the only realistic option is to continue rebuilding.

2019-20 season, some time between the draft and the TDL.

1. Kreider for a package similar to Hayes - first and a young NHLer with limited upside, but who could be useful.

2. Namestnikov, Vesey, Fast each for a second rounder, with maybe a late pick (5-7 rounder) going one way or the other.

The 2021 TDL:

Shattenkirk, Staal, Smith each for a second rounder, possibly more for Shattenkirk. At that point, they will have almost no $ on their contract and teams always need veteran defense depth for the playoffs.

Having multiple firsts again in the first round in 2020, and 4 seconds in both 2020 and 2021 will go a long way to finishing the rebuilding that only began less than 2 years ago with the Stepan trade.

Five years with top-10 picks and a total of 10-11 firsts in that time, plus a bunch of extra later picks is how you rebuild a team, not by jumping the gun on UFAs.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

There’s no way Melnyk takes on dead salary above a players worth, it’s against his DNA. Either we have to take back Ryan on a bigger deal or take on one or both LTIRs, plus retain on Smith. OTT’s D does need a vet to help hold the fort, so Smith actually helps them IMO.

I don’t see the Kings wanting Pionk, they have a bunch of emerging options on RD. They’re gonna want more like a Hajek or maybe Lindgren with another pick/prospect.

I do like your finished product however

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Not so sure, Florida doesn't have Brooklyn and Brighton Beach.

Florida has Russians and South Beach.

 

[Shootertooter]

Florida has Russians and South Beach.

If Panarin was considering Tampa it would be a much better option for him, although I don't see them being in on him at all. I think the Panthers are just one of those perennially bad teams that will have a tough time attracting serious UFA's. I know they got a few over the years.

Regarding Panarin, the truth is, the timing is bad for NY. They need to stay the course for the next couple of years and look to compete for the playoffs after 2021/22-ish. They don't need to get rid of Smith this season, or Staal or Shatty. Those are moves down the road maybe. Keep drafting and building a core.

 

[Gardner McKay]

This is a thread for the Rangers forum. Closed.