Nylander won't be traded (core piece)

[saltming]

Lots of posters saying willie is gone next year. I don't think that's what TML has planned. Dubas said

“We want this group to be together as long as we can possibly keep it together, and we hope that all these guys can be career Leafs, especially this young group of core players that we have,” Dubas said during a scrum with reporters at the Xcel Energy Center approximately 90 minutes after the Nylander signing became official.

Dubas gets first piece of Leafs’ RFA puzzle in place, Matthews, Marner next
There has always been a trade Nylander crowd, but it seems that management identifies him as part of the core and rightfully so.
So why would you trade him?

Click to read more...

 

[daveleaf]

I disagree. The contract is fairly front loaded, most of his salary, 40% is paid by July 1st this coming year. I believe he becomes a very valuable tradeable asset to shore up the back end. With Mariner and Mathews up and JT already signed we just can't have that much salary tied to a few forwards. Nice player but he held out till the last minute, still was given too much money. Before all you guys go off with percentages and all that stuff, he is paid more than Pasta and Ehlers. Let that sink in.

 

[TML Dynasty]

I agree they want him as a core piece too! I just think the way they structured the contract was super smart just in case they do need to move it (now that @WTFMAN99 explained it to me lol).....so say if someone offer sheets our next two and forces a higher cap hit than we wanted then we may need to make a hard decision and this is a super tradeable contract.

 

[nuck]

Cap space and too much money invested in forwards. Even if Willie came in on a team friendly deal they might not be able to win a Cup with this distribution of cap so biased to forwards. And he made sure he is not on a team friendly deal so if Kappy and Johnsson have strong years and can be signed for friendly hits his value to the team drops further. You keep the bargain players. They will probably get hosed by Marner and Matthews this summer and a club can't afford to pay range topping dollars to all of their better players. A 55pt Kappy for 4 x 5 or a 70pt Willie for 7 x 6?

 

[saltming]

I disagree. The contract is fairly front loaded, most of his salary, 40% is paid by July 1st this coming year. I believe he becomes a very valuable tradeable asset to shore up the back end. With Mariner and Mathews up and JT already signed we just can't have that much salary tied to a few forwards. Nice player but he held out till the last minute, still was given too much money. Before all you guys go off with percentages and all that stuff, he is paid more than Pasta and Ehlers. Let that sink in.

Front loading a contract does not mean they want to trade him. Front loading it could be the strategy used to make both parties happy.

 

[saltming]

Cap space and too much money invested in forwards. Even if Willie came in on a team friendly deal they might not be able to win a Cup with this distribution of cap so biased to forwards. And he made sure he is not on a team friendly deal so if Kappy and Johnsson have strong years and can be signed for friendly hits his value to the team drops further. You keep the bargain players. They will probably get hosed by Marner and Matthews this summer and a club can't afford to pay range topping dollars to all of their better players.

Imo you keep the higher skilled player and work other angles

 

[Randy Randerson]

I doubt there's plans to trade him, I also doubt that anyone can say with a straight face that he is 100% here at the end of his contract. What happens if everyone continues their current production rates, and Nylander turns into a point-per-game player (which he was in his rookie year if he had average luck) and someone like Bracco looks like he can fill those shoes without sacrificing much, then someone offers a monster package of picks/prospects for Nylander that would let us supplement the roster with premium ELC talent for a while and extend the peak of the compete window?

there's a lot of dominos left to fall in 6 years, but the nice thing is that if he is traded now it will be on our terms for premium return

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think this is a wait and see how this season shakes out sort of thing, and they'll likely look to move on from Gardiner, move Marleau, dump Zaitsev, or shed some depth players (like Brown) before trading Nylander.

 

[Drytoast]

Lots of posters saying willie is gone next year. I don't think that's what TML has planned. Dubas said

Dubas gets first piece of Leafs’ RFA puzzle in place, Matthews, Marner next
There has always been a trade Nylander crowd, but it seems that management identifies him as part of the core and rightfully so.
So why would you trade him?

If it came down to losing either Matthews or Marner...Willie is gone.

Dubas is an analytics guy. And keeping Willie will largely depend in how he looks for the remainder of the year. But I do agree that the original plan was to have him Marner and Matthews as core long term pieces.

But plans can very quickly change.

 

[nuck]

Imo you keep the higher skilled player and work other angles

In a non-cap environment I definitely agree with you but when is the last time a team ran with more than 3 elite scoring forwards? Has a club ever won a Cup that way? Too much spent at the top means less to spend everywhere else, and in the Leafs case that means the D. All bets are off if they win it this season and they will claw like crazy to maintain the same group but if they don't make the finals there will be some second guessing on what kind of a team they bought. If Willie scores at an 80pt clip that would probably buy him some more time as well, if the cap doesn't make a decision for them.

 

[saltming]

If it came down to losing either Matthews or Marner...Willie is gone.

Dubas is an analytics guy. And keeping Willie will largely depend in how he looks for the remainder of the year. But I do agree that the original plan was to have him Marner and Matthews as core long term pieces.

But plans can very quickly change.

I agree, but I also think they will try every other option before trading willie.
I made this thread because there are posters out there saying he is gone for sure next season because of his contract structure.
Yes there are reason why he might be traded, but he wasn't signed with the plan to trade him in the offseason as some are suggesting

 

[Liminality]

I disagree. The contract is fairly front loaded, most of his salary, 40% is paid by July 1st this coming year. I believe he becomes a very valuable tradeable asset to shore up the back end. With Mariner and Mathews up and JT already signed we just can't have that much salary tied to a few forwards. Nice player but he held out till the last minute, still was given too much money. Before all you guys go off with percentages and all that stuff, he is paid more than Pasta and Ehlers. Let that sink in.

You can't ignore %'s though.

 

[daveleaf]

Front loading a contract does not mean they want to trade him. Front loading it could be the strategy used to make both parties happy.

I disagree. Front loading a contract makes him a valuable piece to all teams including budget teams. 40% of the contract paid in the first year means even though he has a higher AAV his actual dollars are manageable. That contract was made to be traded. Willy wanted big money, he got it but the Leafs have a deal that they can move in a heartbeat.

 

[daveleaf]

You can't ignore %'s though.

I believe you can. You guys get hooked on percentages but I don't. He's not better than the group he signed for. Who's carrying Boston right now with Begeron out? Pasta. Nylander would not carry this team but Mariner, Mathews and Tavares can. Hence he will be gone.

 

[aingefan]

Front loading a contract does not mean they want to trade him. Front loading it could be the strategy used to make both parties happy.

Seems it can serve both purposes, Salt.
It’s a business for him and a business for the team.
His value as a trade chip might be amongst the highest in the league next year after his bonus is paid.
5 years of Willy for the price of 4. Premium talent. Center or winger.
That seems to be the trade off his side made (tradeable contract) to get him closer to the AAV he wanted.
Looking at an overview of the system, the forward side has much better shape than the defence side. And there is a bit of a cap crunch next year.
I wouldn’t place odds on anything, but, both parties covered themselves with this deal.

 

[kindalaidback]

fans will never accept he is here to stay, but i don't care.

why would you trade him?

because fans still believe that adding one right-handed defenseman would solve all defensive issues, even though it's quite clear to see that the entire team sucks at playing defense. but what do i know, right?

 

[Jozay]

Dubas and the Leafs arent going through another negotiation with him. No way he finishes this deal as a Leaf, and the way its strucured would support that.

 

[saltming]

In a non-cap environment I definitely agree with you but when is the last time a team ran with more than 3 elite scoring forwards? Has a club ever won a Cup that way? Too much spent at the top means less to spend everywhere else, and in the Leafs case that means the D. All bets are of if they win it this season and they will claw like crazy to maintain the same group but if they don't make the finals there will be some second guessing on what kind of a team they bought. If Willie scores at an 80pt clip that would probably buy him some more time as well, if the cap doesn't make a decision for them.

The cap will go up and the capologist will be put to the test, but my thought is they want to keep them all and did not sign willie to trade him next year.
As for the defense, rielly is here for a few years before he's due for a raise, dermott is elc, let's see what gardiner wants, oz will be fa and not looking like he will demand a lot of money and we have a couple good looking kids with the marlies.
Draft and development was always the backbone of the idea to sustaining an contending team long term

 

[Liminality]

I believe you can. You guys get hooked on percentages but I don't. He's not better than the group he signed for. Who's carrying Boston right now with Begeron out? Pasta. Nylander would not carry this team but Mariner, Mathews and Tavares can. Hence he will be gone.

But you have to consider the different cap ceilings when those contracts were signed.

 

[Menzinger]

The idea that the team signed a player to six years and plan to trade him doesn’t hold up to much scrutiny.

The contract being frontloaded is common for many big money deals. The Leafs likely will do this with the Marner and Matthews deals too. Players like it because it slows them to start investing the bulk of their money right away, and teams like it because of the added flexibility it can offer.

Ultimately Nylander may end up one of the best “bang for your buck” deals on the team as the cap continues to rise. You tend to not trade guys like that

 

[saltming]

I disagree. Front loading a contract makes him a valuable piece to all teams including budget teams. 40% of the contract paid in the first year means even though he has a higher AAV his actual dollars are manageable. That contract was made to be traded. Willy wanted big money, he got it but the Leafs have a deal that they can move in a heartbeat.

I'm not disputing that at all, I'm saying I don't know if that's the reason they did it

 

[daveleaf]

I doubt there's plans to trade him, I also doubt that anyone can say with a straight face that he is 100% here at the end of his contract. What happens if everyone continues their current production rates, and Nylander turns into a point-per-game player (which he was in his rookie year if he had average luck) and someone like Bracco looks like he can fill those shoes without sacrificing much, then someone offers a monster package of picks/prospects for Nylander that would let us supplement the roster with premium ELC talent for a while and extend the peak of the compete window?

there's a lot of dominos left to fall in 6 years, but the nice thing is that if he is traded now it will be on our terms for premium return

You made some great points and when you get to the end of it one can make the argument for all the reasons that he will not be here long term. I think there top three forwards will be JT, Mathews and Mariner, now you add Reilly to that and Anderson and that is the core. Than you start to fill in around. I just don't see a a scenario when you can keep all of them and have a complete team. I hope they can win a cup this year and keep them around for another but after that I just don't see it. If the threat to offer sheet Mathews and Mariner comes into play, having that contract front loaded makes it an easy asset t move.

 

[saltming]

Seems it can serve both purposes, Salt.
It’s a business for him and a business for the team.
His value as a trade chip might be amongst the highest in the league next year after his bonus is paid.
5 years of Willy for the price of 4. Premium talent. Center or winger.
That seems to be the trade off his side made (tradeable contract) to get him closer to the AAV he wanted.
Looking at an overview of the system, the forward side has much better shape than the defence side. And there is a bit of a cap crunch next year.
I wouldn’t place odds on anything, but, both parties covered themselves with this deal.

Agreed! At the least it shows how smart our GM is

 

[ToneDog]

What we don't know is whether there are any ill feelings between the Leafs and Nylander now. If there are, you can bet this contract was structured in this manner so that they can trade him as soon as July 2nd.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

That damn Marner with his super star play this year has ruined the Leafs cap plan for next year. I'm joking as you can't have too many good players, especially if they are signed to reasonable contracts. It sure looks like the Leafs will have cap issues next year and Nylander with his front loaded and somewhat reasonable contract looks like a trade candidate.