Speculation: Nylander VII

[Just Rude]

Interesting. LeBrun says a western conference GM texted him yesterday and said "Kyle Dubas is not trading him."

On the slip side, he says he believes "part of the concern from Nylander and his camp is being traded as soon as he signs." So, LeBrun and Mike Johnson suggest if he signed for a discount in Toronto, he becomes a much more attractive trade chip to other teams.

https://www.tsn.ca/video/western-co...aren-t-interested-in-trading-nylander~1510303

Maybe, just maybe, this isn't all about $$$ after all.

 

[inthe6ix]

Has there ever been a topic in here that has gone to SEVEN threads?

Maybe JT July 1st?

 

[New Liskeard]

Isn't this the same line of thinking that lead to Hall for Larsson?

The big difference is, the affect it will have on the cap. For example, many would say 6.5 per for Nylander is fair. Instead of taking that cap hit for him should he accept, trade Nylander for Pesce (who has a 4 mil per cap hit) and potentially give the 2.5 to Gardiner along with his current salary to sign long term.

So you could have Nylander at 6.5 or Pesce at 4 mil per and add the 2.5 to Gardiner long term. Basically Nylander for Pesce and Gardiner long term.

One thing in all of this, is the expansion draft that will be coming in the next couple years. Does Anaheim protect 4D and 4 forwards, with Perry, Getz and Kessler as all who have to be protected due to their NMC? All these need to be considered long term for the Leafs and all teams.

 

[Fogelhund]

What would it take for Pittsburgh to trade for him?

Tough deal to make, based on our need is a RHD, who is mid 20's at the latest and you don't have cap space. I'm not sure we are great trading partners... but.....

Maata would be the starting point, but you'd need to send cap too.

It's either Brassard or Hagelin, who are both UFA at the end of the year, which is the only way it works for the Leafs.

Maata + Brassard + Sprong... probably is where it is...

 

[Confucius]

Ellis from the Preds. Preds have too much D anyway time to inject some excitement

 

[member 157595]

The no brainer move is just move they guy for a Dman. Pull a CBJ/Nashville and make a 1 for 1 trade for a high end talented dman.


They wont tho. They think they can win the cup with Rielly and a bunch of scraps winning 7-6 games.

You do realize that it takes more than 1 team to trade, right?

 

[Nadal On Clay]

Tough deal to make, based on our need is a RHD, who is mid 20's at the latest and you don't have cap space. I'm not sure we are great trading partners... but.....

Maata would be the starting point, but you'd need to send cap too.

It's either Brassard or Hagelin, who are both UFA at the end of the year, which is the only way it works for the Leafs.

Maata + Brassard + Sprong... probably is where it is...

That was exactly the trade I was thinking about.. I'd be pretty happy with it as a Pens fan

One man can dream..

 

[Martin Skoula]

The big difference is, the affect it will have on the cap. For example, many would say 6.5 per for Nylander is fair. Instead of taking that cap hit for him should he accept, trade Nylander for Pesce (who has a 4 mil per cap hit) and potentially give the 2.5 to Gardiner along with his current salary to sign long term.

So you could have Nylander at 6.5 or Pesce at 4 mil per and add the 2.5 to Gardiner long term. Basically Nylander for Pesce and Gardiner long term.

One thing in all of this, is the expansion draft that will be coming in the next couple years. Does Anaheim protect 4D and 4 forwards, with Perry, Getz and Kessler as all who have to be protected due to their NMC? All these need to be considered long term for the Leafs and all teams.

You forgot to add the cost of Nylander's replacement. Even if it's in-house like Kapanen, giving him Nylander's minutes beside Matthews bumps him from 2ish mil in the bottom 6 to 4-5+ if he keeps playing like this.

 

[Kamiccolo]

So if we can take a moment from the bickering, Freidman had something interesting in his last article

31 Thoughts: NHL embracing new era of fun, personality - Sportsnet.ca

"At the Board of Governors meeting last week, the NHL provided 2019–20 cap estimates ranging from $81.4 million (no NHLPA inflator) to $85.4 million (the full five per cent). (The players committed to 1.25 for 2018–19.) Looking at the last six Stanley Cup champions and their four highest-paid players, the percentage of the cap spent on them ranges from 35.5 (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Corey Crawfordand Patrick Sharp on the 2015 Blackhawks) to 45.2 (Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang and Phil Kessel on the 2017 Penguins).
The advantage Pittsburgh had that Toronto doesn’t is Crosby and Malkin are on back-diving contracts no longer allowed under CBA rules. The defending-champion Capitals were at 40.2 for Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom and Braden Holtby. Those deals all have acceptable structure. We already know John Tavares is at $11 million, so if the Maple Leafs want to stay at 45 per cent, they have between $36.6 million (low end) and $38.4 million (high end) for Matthews, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander."

I really don't think this is as big of an issue as people are making out. Sure, the next year with Marleau will be tough no question, but it is blown way out of proportion when people say you can't win with these guys making x. The question is more "Can they surround them with good enough depth players without overpaying them".

And I don't think anyone knows the answer to that.

 

[Erndog]

Tough deal to make, based on our need is a RHD, who is mid 20's at the latest and you don't have cap space. I'm not sure we are great trading partners... but.....

Maata would be the starting point, but you'd need to send cap too.

It's either Brassard or Hagelin, who are both UFA at the end of the year, which is the only way it works for the Leafs.

Maata + Brassard + Sprong... probably is where it is...

If Rutherford called with that offer, not only would I hang up on him, I would block his number and ban him from entering the Scotiabank Arena and apply for a restraining order.

 

[Confucius]

Interesting. LeBrun says a western conference GM texted him yesterday and said "Kyle Dubas is not trading him."

On the slip side, he says he believes "part of the concern from Nylander and his camp is being traded as soon as he signs." So, LeBrun and Mike Johnson suggest if he signed for a discount in Toronto, he becomes a much more attractive trade chip to other teams.

https://www.tsn.ca/video/western-co...aren-t-interested-in-trading-nylander~1510303

Maybe, just maybe, this isn't all about $$$ after all.

If that happened that Willy was flipped soon after signing and Willy did indeed take a discount. I could see star players just blackballing Dubas and refuse to discuss any possibility of going to a team he manages. It could happen but it would be a douche move

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Ellis from the Preds. Preds have too much D anyway time to inject some excitement

Sign me up. As a pred fan is add to him to get it done

 

[Nizdizzle]

If that happened that Willy was flipped soon after signing and Willy did indeed take a discount. I could see star players just blackballing Dubas and refuse to discuss any possibility of going to a team he manages. It could happen but it would be a *****e move

I believe its already happened before with Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, and PK Subban (traded days before his NTC kicked in). I don't think other players care as much as the fans and the affected player(s) do.

 

[airbus220]

Dubas is winning this battle hands down right now. No pressure whatsoever on him.

Dubas is in the better position but he is not winning.
Nylander's value is going down.
Dubas would have won if he traded him July 2, but ...

 

[LeafFever]

Interesting. LeBrun says a western conference GM texted him yesterday and said "Kyle Dubas is not trading him."

On the slip side, he says he believes "part of the concern from Nylander and his camp is being traded as soon as he signs." So, LeBrun and Mike Johnson suggest if he signed for a discount in Toronto, he becomes a much more attractive trade chip to other teams.

https://www.tsn.ca/video/western-co...aren-t-interested-in-trading-nylander~1510303

Maybe, just maybe, this isn't all about $$$ after all.

I bet you that concern only started because they are not missing him due to this lockout. This is their own doing.

 

[LeafFever]

Dubas is in the better position but he is not winning.
Nylander's value is going down.
Dubas would have won if he traded hin July 2, but ...

The Leafs are not trading him so who cares about his value? Nylander is screwed. He has to sign.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

The big difference is, the affect it will have on the cap. For example, many would say 6.5 per for Nylander is fair. Instead of taking that cap hit for him should he accept, trade Nylander for Pesce (who has a 4 mil per cap hit) and potentially give the 2.5 to Gardiner along with his current salary to sign long term.

So you could have Nylander at 6.5 or Pesce at 4 mil per and add the 2.5 to Gardiner long term. Basically Nylander for Pesce and Gardiner long term.

One thing in all of this, is the expansion draft that will be coming in the next couple years. Does Anaheim protect 4D and 4 forwards, with Perry, Getz and Kessler as all who have to be protected due to their NMC? All these need to be considered long term for the Leafs and all teams.

The Ducks aren't going to open up a massive hole on their blue line now because of a potential expansion two years from now. You're reaching for reasons for a team to move with a player they absolutely cannot part with. They kept their best 5 Dmen through the last expansion, and aren't about to make a panic move two years prior, that's silly talk.

I'm not exaggerating when I say Luke Schenn currently is the 5th best D on the Ducks and he's definitely the #3 RHD on the depth chart. No GM or person in their right mind would like Nylander enough to move Manson and replace him with Schenn (or Hainsey so don't even try). On top of that, Nylander apparently wants nearly double Manson's salary....I think we'll go ahead and just keep our current top 4 having already moved two top 4 D just last season.

If we are to believe Eklund that the Ducks are even making an offer I can only see that involving multiple assets (Silfverberg + D prospect + )

 

[Nizdizzle]

Interesting. LeBrun says a western conference GM texted him yesterday and said "Kyle Dubas is not trading him."

On the slip side, he says he believes "part of the concern from Nylander and his camp is being traded as soon as he signs." So, LeBrun and Mike Johnson suggest if he signed for a discount in Toronto, he becomes a much more attractive trade chip to other teams.

https://www.tsn.ca/video/western-co...aren-t-interested-in-trading-nylander~1510303

Maybe, just maybe, this isn't all about $$$ after all.

The problem with that, is that the Leafs can't offer Nylander a NTC until his UFA years. They literally can't aleviate his fears of being traded besides signing him to a deal that other teams wouldn't want. There isn't really a way the Leafs can satisfy Nylander, if fear of being traded is his main concern.

 

[Strait2thecup]

I find it funny that Dubas thinks his nerd tactics are working and he’s just going to out wait nylander.

Going great so far!

 

[BrettHullsToe]

If that happened that Willy was flipped soon after signing and Willy did indeed take a discount. I could see star players just blackballing Dubas and refuse to discuss any possibility of going to a team he manages. It could happen but it would be a *****e move

It's why all "hometown discounts" come with NMCs attached - that way there's never a temptation for a GM to screw over a player. Alternatively, a GM could be fired or retire and the new GM may see no reason to respect a discount on a contract he didn't give a player.

RFAs can't have NMCs, therfore RFAs should never give discounts (except for maybe 1 year contracts).

 

[bornNraised Sens]

So if we can take a moment from the bickering, Freidman had something interesting in his last article

31 Thoughts: NHL embracing new era of fun, personality - Sportsnet.ca

"At the Board of Governors meeting last week, the NHL provided 2019–20 cap estimates ranging from $81.4 million (no NHLPA inflator) to $85.4 million (the full five per cent). (The players committed to 1.25 for 2018–19.) Looking at the last six Stanley Cup champions and their four highest-paid players, the percentage of the cap spent on them ranges from 35.5 (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Corey Crawfordand Patrick Sharp on the 2015 Blackhawks) to 45.2 (Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang and Phil Kessel on the 2017 Penguins).
The advantage Pittsburgh had that Toronto doesn’t is Crosby and Malkin are on back-diving contracts no longer allowed under CBA rules. The defending-champion Capitals were at 40.2 for Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom and Braden Holtby. Those deals all have acceptable structure. We already know John Tavares is at $11 million, so if the Maple Leafs want to stay at 45 per cent, they have between $36.6 million (low end) and $38.4 million (high end) for Matthews, Mitchell Marner and William Nylander."

I really don't think this is as big of an issue as people are making out. Sure, the next year with Marleau will be tough no question, but it is blown way out of proportion when people say you can't win with these guys making x. The question is more "Can they surround them with good enough depth players without overpaying them".

And I don't think anyone knows the answer to that.

Maybe im reading this wrong... But 45% of a 85m cap is 38.25m. So to fit the 4 of them they only have 27.25m left for Marner, Matthews and Nylander? no?

 

[LeafFever]

I find it funny that Dubas thinks his nerd tactics are working and he’s just going to out wait nylander.

Going great so far!

Yeah because Nylander's plan is working so swell right now.

 

[Strait2thecup]

Yeah because Nylander's plan is working so swell right now.

Nylander can’t rwlly have a plan other than going public with a trade request. Doesn’t have much power and if he’s not being offered what he thinks he’s worth then good on him for not giving in

 

[Nizdizzle]

Maybe im reading this wrong... But 45% of a 85m cap is 38.25m. So to fit the 4 of them they only have 27.25m left for Marner, Matthews and Nylander? no?

Yeah it looks like he forgot to subtract Tavares from the $36.6-$38.4 number he posted. I remember reading that and thinking "wow, thats really workable".

 

[Kamiccolo]

Maybe im reading this wrong... But 45% of a 85m cap is 38.25m. So to fit the 4 of them they only have 27.25m left for Marner, Matthews and Nylander? no?

Using high end estimates at this time

Matthews 12
Marner 10

That leaves just under 6M for Nylander - hence why they are being so hard on the number. However if they are able to get these guys for a bit less, then it gets even easier. Giving Marner 9 means Nylander can have the 6.5 easily.