Nylander Discussion

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by 67leafs, Nov 3, 2019.

  1. Menzinger

    Menzinger Moderator

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    When it comes to contract negotiations tangible things like points matter. And the fact is, Nylander had the better case heading into them. Quite frankl . Pasta did pretty well considering he had just the one season of high production. Bruins were smart to take the gamble in retrospect

    Bruins got incredibly lucky with Pasta not breaking out fully until after his contracr. Same thing with the Avs and MacKinnon
     
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  2. Ziggdiezan

    Ziggdiezan Registered User

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    I don't want to get into a Nylander vs Pasta debate but if you also look at the 5 on 5 production during their ELC it is pretty obvious that Pasta had better results during his ELC. Just an example is Pasta's first year (18 yrs) he put 22 points at 5 on 5 in 46 games (39 point pace). In Nylander's first full season (20 yrs) he put up 31 points at 5 on 5 in 81 games. Also unequivocally the final year is given more weight especially when it is the first year a young player gets PP time and your comparing him to a player who received PP time right away. Pasta paces for almost double Nylander's goal totals in both their final years. We know from Matthews that goals are paid a premium and Pasta was very clearly a much better goal scorer than Nylander at the time of each of their signings.
     
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  3. MyBudJT

    MyBudJT Formerly WILDLIFEGUY

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    Why is it so difficult to admit that Pastrnak was not a good comparable for Nylander??
     
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  4. PromisedLand

    PromisedLand SERENITY NOW! (Leafs making me crazy)

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    Allow me to take a crack at it;

    when it comes to Matthews and Marner's contracts; Matthews contract is apparently justified because of "goals"

    then when Nylander and Pastrnak are talked aobut it is about "points" -> "goals don't matter"

    :sarcasm:

    ;)
     
  5. Menzinger

    Menzinger Moderator

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    Because at the time he absolutely he was?

    Nylander had better point production, Pasta had a higher goal scoring potental but less proven. Hardly unreasonable that they got close to the same level of contract value.

    This entire debate is splitting hairs over a few hundred thousand dollars. Nylanders broad range of comparables of the saalry cal era had him roughly making 6-7 milion AAV over 5-7 years. And his end deal landed exactly in that range. One can argue he ended up at the higher end of tje comparables - but hes clearly not an outlier by any stretch
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
  6. Sweet Leaf

    Sweet Leaf Registered User

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    Pastrnak's year going into that negotiation is a better year than Nylander ever had.

    Nylander defenders said "Yeah but it''s based on 2 years of production not one!"

    We said, "That doesn't make any sense...why would the most recent year not count the most?"

    I guess we were ahead of the curve. Let's all learn something here. IE The last year counts most. Progression analysis 101.
     
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  7. MyBudJT

    MyBudJT Formerly WILDLIFEGUY

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    :facepalm: :pullhair:

    You're essentially comparing 19,20,21 year old Pastrnak (whom played first two seasons in bottom 6) to 21, 22 year old Nylander (who pretty much only played top 6).... HOW DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE????
     
  8. Menzinger

    Menzinger Moderator

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    Because all we can do is compare their times in the NHL together. You cant just pretend some seasons dont exist because they dont fit your narrative.

    I do notice you seem to drop this age issue when discussing Marner vs Matthews....

    Either way, these contract debates are the most tedious things on these boards for the last 12 months. Nobdy has ANY original thoughts at this point, we just keep repeating the same lines to kne another.
     
  9. Sweet Leaf

    Sweet Leaf Registered User

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    Menzinger - is Pastrnak a better player than Nylander?

    Did some of us tell you it was stupid to give Nylander a bigger contract than Pastrnak based on Pastrnak having a 30plus goal 70 plus point season going into that contract negotiation? Do you remember how often we said it's clear he's not as good a player as Pastrnak?

    Do you feel good about the Leafs paying Nylander more than Pastrnak on a shorter term? Do you appreciate that the same guys you are arguing with today were the same guys telling you then we have no business giving him better money/term than Pastrnak?
     
  10. MyBudJT

    MyBudJT Formerly WILDLIFEGUY

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    LOL... fitting a narrative... If anyone is fitting a narrative its those that are ignoring age and QoT when throwing out these absurd comparisons.

    Marner and Matthews ARE the same age.... What are you getting at?

    I thought it is pretty obvious that a 21 year old scoring 35 goals and 70P in 75GP is better than a 22 year old scoring 20G and 61P in 82GP... but I guess around these parts, that is a hard concept to grasp.
     
  11. Menzinger

    Menzinger Moderator

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    Theyre different draft classes: Matthews entered the league immediately post draft, not the case for Marner or was D+2.

    This will be my last comment on this comparison, because the only other thing more tedious than contract debates is revisitng Marner vs Matthews.
     
  12. MyBudJT

    MyBudJT Formerly WILDLIFEGUY

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    Who cares, they're the same age!!!
     
  13. KeonHorton

    KeonHorton Registered User

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    When we discussed Nylander's salary before the his contract got signed, most/many were saying that Pasta was better and DP's salary would be the ceiling (maximum) for Nylander. It was true then and even more so now.

    Not sure how you'd compare even Marner now to Pasta.

    Pasta 30 points, $6.666 m AAV

    Marner 18 points, $10.893 m AAV
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
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  14. GoonieFace

    GoonieFace Registered User

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    Yeah, but who's handsomer? Thats all that really matters
     
  15. Nithoniniel

    Nithoniniel Registered User

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    This just goes round and round in circles, it seems. There are things that are researched and confirmed regarding second contracts:

    - PPG across ELC tends to form the basis.
    - Larger sample size is a big factor.
    - It's weighed towards recency.
    - Relative age has very little impact on numbers.
    - Goalscoring and position does though.

    Like Menzinger said, these things have repeated - and the work behind it has been referenced and shown - ad nauseam by now, and the usual suspects are ignoring this.

    Contract negotiations are based on comparables along these kind of guidelines. One might feel like age should have a bigger influence, but it doesn't.
     
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  16. Nithoniniel

    Nithoniniel Registered User

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    If you compare to Pastrnak, there's pretty much not a single good contract in this league.

    Here's a thing. In Pastrnak's 70 point season, he had 10 empty net points, many of them goals. You're about eight times more likely to score against an empty net. Do you really want to give those equal weight to other points? Against an actual goalie, Nylander had 3 goals less and 1 point more.

    Nylander was given a contract perfectly in line with his comparables at the time. So was Pastrnak. He's since exploded to become a superstar. Nylander hasn't. That's pretty much the end of it.

    It goes back to what I said in the last post. I understand that you felt Pastrnak was a better player at the time. But comparables dictate contract negotiations and Nylander had a better case, and pretty much all of them go along the same baselines.

    Furthermore, there's no point focusing solely on Pastrnak. He's not the only player that Nylander should have been compared to. That's not how it works.
     
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  17. Nithoniniel

    Nithoniniel Registered User

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    All these comparisons to Pastrnak based on the player he is now is nonsensical. He's one of the best players in the league. That's a ridiculous standard to set for expectations on Nylander.
     
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  18. MyBudJT

    MyBudJT Formerly WILDLIFEGUY

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    Its always been nonsensical... thats the point...
     
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  19. Kiwi

    Kiwi Registered User

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    If we're taking contracts into account so is marner, he looks like the greatest bargin in history compared to both our top 6 RW
     
  20. Throw More Waffles

    Throw More Waffles Registered User

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    So because Pasta had only one season at a 37 goal/78 point pace... he can’t get paid as a 37 goal/78 point player.

    Yet Marner has just ONE season as a 94 point player, and he gets paid like a 94 point player, and not the 65 point player he averaged previously.

    There is NO consistency.
     
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  21. Throw More Waffles

    Throw More Waffles Registered User

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    There were some people who were arguing that it’s foolish to pay a proven 20 goal/60 point player the same as another team paid their proven 37 goal/78 point paced player.

    I mean, it doesn’t take a ****ing genius to see that that would be a stupid idea. And those people are being proven 100% correct.
     
  22. Throw More Waffles

    Throw More Waffles Registered User

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    Rantanen had been at his production level two years in a row. Marner only one. Look how much more Marner got paid. How come the justifications for Pastrnaks contract compared to Nylander don’t apply to Rantanen vs Marner?
     
  23. Joey Hoser

    Joey Hoser Registered User

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    But if you're talking about performance vs. salary, everyone sucks and is overpaid compared to Pasternak, which makes the comparison kinda pointless. Unless your only point is that Pasternak rules.
     
  24. Trapper

    Trapper Registered User

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    I thought elite players didn’t have standards. Only elite expectations.
     
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  25. ZEBROA

    ZEBROA Registered User

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    The only reason i want Nylander traded is these stupid threads going on forever. But the team would probably not get anything better in return if that happened.
     
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