Speculation: Nylander contract discussion

[MyBudJT]

might wanna check out larkin's 2 seasons before this one where he "produced more than you" by 2 points might I add, Nylander almost doubled the amount of larkins points the season before. Comparables aren't based on one season of work. Larkin being a center is not comparable anyway Ehlers and Pastrnak are wingers with similar production before they signed as many as said Ehelers lower end pastrnak higher end.

I think you’re undermining the importance of seeing progress between Rookie and sophomore seasons... all the names you just mentioned have shown more progression in their careers than Nylander has shown so far...

 

[Sypher04]

There is no way Nylander accepts that, and why would he. The idea of long term is to meet in the middle that is paying him what he is worth now, you cant think he has peaked yet can you?. If that's the extent of their offer then I could see him holding out now for a bridge and betting on himself

I've explained it approximately 72819892892 times already here. Several times in this very thread.

1) Ehlers is the best direct comparable to Nylander
2) Ehlers signed for 6M x 7 years
3) Ehlers contract will take effect at the same time
4) Ehlers at signing would have played 3 NHL seasons to Nylander's 2 + a bit.
5) Ehlers showed a clear goal progression from 15 to 25, from rookie to sophomore year whereas Nylander scored 22, then 20. Rightfully or not, goals tend to get more $$$.
3) Ehlers is a UFA 1 year before Nylander which largely negates any idea of needing to add for cap inflation.

There's other things back and forth, but even if the number escalates by like 250k my points all still stand. Nylander should be much closer to 6 than 7. Even at 7 years.

 

[Sypher04]

Fair enough but if the Leafs want to de-risk their situation for next year, wouldn't the smart move be :to offer more than the 7.25 to get him to sign early?
I believe it would be. How much can and should they offer? I guess it depends on what Willy signs for.

Oh, preaching to the choir there... I think we should be getting all 3 locked up for 7/8 year terms each as soon as possible.

 

[Walshy7]

I think you’re undermining the importance of seeing progress between Rookie and sophomore seasons... all the names you just mentioned have shown more progression in their careers than Nylander has shown so far...

so you are saying instead of 2 61 points seasons (where nylander increased his 5 on5 points but ~13 points) is not as a good as 50 points then 61 points? haha you are insane if you believe that.

-same number of points but better 5 on 5 scoring
-same number of points but 20 games without Matthews if you believe in the crap about Matthews carrying nylander.
- played 15~ games at C

you do know hockey isn't all about points right?

you are right no progression at all.

 

[Leafslet]

Fair enough but if the Leafs want to de-risk their situation for next year, wouldn't the smart move be :to offer more than the 7.25 to get him to sign early?
I believe it would be. How much can and should they offer? I guess it depends on what Willy signs for.

disagree. if you offer more than 7.25, hoping he’ll bite now, if marner’s smart he turns it down instantly, and then at the end of the season use that offered amount as your base and say that was on the table before a huge year, now it MUST go up.

 

[MyBudJT]

so you are saying instead of 2 61 points seasons (where nylander increased his 5 on5 points but ~13 points) is not as a good as 50 points then 61 points? haha you are insane if you believe that.

-same number of points but better 5 on 5 scoring
-same number of points but 20 games without Matthews if you believe in the crap about Matthews carrying nylander.
- played 15~ games at C

you do know hockey isn't all about points right?

you are right no progression at all.

Why do posters here take Things so personal that they feel the need to call other posters insane for a differing opinion...

Sure, he increased his 5v5... but also reduced his PP... on average, yes... i’d be more encouraged with a young player that improved their production... it shows that they have an ability to adapt to the NHL while the NHL adapts to them...

Nylander actually played more with Matthews last season than he did his rookie season... lol...

I also didn’t say that Nylander didn’t show any progression... I said all the other mentioned players showed MORE production... Please don’t put words in my mouth...

 

[diceman934]

I generally agree with diceman and definitely see his perspective on willy's compete level etc. Nylander's poor playoff performance left a sour taste in my mouth and lead me to believe a bridge deal was more appropriate.

Now I believe that signing him short term or trading will be a massive mistake. Both scenarios will come back to haunt us. Signing him short term may force management's hand in 2 or so years. Distribute the wealth over 7 or 8 years and lock him up!

7 x 6.8
8 x 6.5

Why would you lock him up long term. No incentive to change. If he improves his compete level after a two year deal he will get his money. He is not get a huge deal after two years it would be in the 8m to 8.5 money per. I am against trading him unless after a show me two year deal he has not improved his compete level. Then and only then would we look to move him for an area of needs or young prospects etc. He will get his points so his value should be high.

 

[DarkKnight]

Agree hockey isn't just about points, which is why I don't think Nylander deserves anything above 6 at this time, which is great for him I'd add. There are still some questions, why does he deserve finished product money in his RFA years? Just because other teams have made errors over paying, that's not some template I follow. This team will spend to the max, it's just distribution and the problem for Willie is right now I can make a very compelling case he's our fifth best forward, so what does that pay on a team? I'll bet Dubas is still in the 5's and that's the "far apart" angle.

 

[Walshy7]

Why do posters here take Things so personal that they feel the need to call other posters insane for a differing opinion...

Sure, he increased his 5v5... but also reduced his PP... on average, yes... i’d be more encouraged with a young player that improved their production... it shows that they have an ability to adapt to the NHL while the NHL adapts to them...

Nylander actually played more with Matthews last season than he did his rookie season... lol...

I also didn’t say that Nylander didn’t show any progression... I said all the other mentioned players showed MORE production... Please don’t put words in my mouth...

Larkin went from 32 points to 63 points, that is not better than 2 61 point seasons not by a long shot.

There is a chart posted a few pages back that showed Matthews away from nylander is worse than nylander away from Matthews in shots for and against and obviously together they are far better. Matthews does not carry nylander its a fact and using that as the crux of an argument is stupid, not saying you are stupid im saying using that is stupid.

Last year nylander's pp unit missed Matthews (for 20 games) and had leo komarov on it and even marleau was ice cold on the pp for long stretches. Even connor brown got some time on it, 28 point connor brown!. How can you expect nylander and gardiner to carry all of that between just the 2 of them. this year komarov appears like he may be replaced by kadri if the units are evenly split.

some of those players progressed to nylander's level in their progression how can you think that is better, unless you think nylander has peaked at 22 I know you don't think that.

Ehlers (nylanders perfect comparable) 38, 64, 60 points actually went backwards unlike nylander staying the same in year 3 although added 4 goals to his total

Pastrnak (nylanders top end comparable) 27, 26, 70 and 80 points obviously progression there and 2 30 goal seasons.

Larkin (not really comparable different position) 45, 32, 63 points regression in year 2 before progression to Nylanders 2 full seasons. only one 20 goal season as well

 

[DarkKnight]

Larkin went from 32 points to 63 points, that is not better than 2 61 point seasons not by a long shot.

There is a chart posted a few pages back that showed Matthews away from nylander is worse than nylander away from Matthews in shots for and against and obviously together they are far better. Matthews does not carry nylander its a fact and using that as the crux of an argument is stupid, not saying you are stupid im saying using that is stupid.

Last year nylander's pp unit missed Matthews (for 20 games) and had leo komarov on it and even marleau was ice cold on the pp for long stretches. Even connor brown got some time on it, 28 point connor brown!. How can you expect nylander and gardiner to carry all of that between just the 2 of them. this year komarov appears like he may be replaced by kadri if the units are evenly split.

those players progressed to nylander's level in their progression how can you think that is better, unless you think nylander has peaked at 22 I know you don't think that.

Ehlers (nylanders perfect comparable) 38, 64, 60 points actually went backwards unlike nylander staying the same in year 3 although added 4 goals to his total

Pastrnak (nylanders top end comparable) 27, 26, 70 and 80 points obviously progression there and 2 30 goal seasons.

Larkin (not really comparable different position) 45, 32, 63 points regression in year 2 before progression to Nylanders 2 full seasons. only one 20 goal season as well

Brother, does anyone really believe Matthews needs Nylander more than Willie needs Auston? I know what some limited stats say, but let's keep it real. I agree, don't like the Larkin comparison.

 

[Walshy7]

Agree hockey isn't just about points, which is why I don't think Nylander deserves anything above 6 at this time, which is great for him I'd add. There are still some questions, why does he deserve finished product money in his RFA years? Just because other teams have made errors over paying, that's not some template I follow. This team will spend to the max, it's just distribution and the problem for Willie is right now I can make a very compelling case he's our fifth best forward, so what does that pay on a team? I'll bet Dubas is still in the 5's and that's the "far apart" angle.

oh cmon you cant be serious, Nylander lead the team in dzone exits and ozone entries (up there in the league I believe) he isn't all about points Deserves under $6 Eherls isn't great 2way player either nylander has comparables if you believe under $6M long term id say you are clouded in your judgment.

 

[Walshy7]

Brother, does anyone really believe Matthews needs Nylander more than Willie needs Auston? I know what some limited stats say, but let's keep it real. I agree, don't like the Larkin comparison.

no im not saying that, im saying nylander doesn't need Matthews as much as people like to pretend he does that is it. Nothing on Matthews or his abilities. People pretend like nylander wouldn't have a career without Matthews sometimes

 

[Liminality]

Why do posters here take Things so personal that they feel the need to call other posters insane for a differing opinion...

Sure, he increased his 5v5... but also reduced his PP... on average, yes... i’d be more encouraged with a young player that improved their production... it shows that they have an ability to adapt to the NHL while the NHL adapts to them...

Nylander actually played more with Matthews last season than he did his rookie season... lol...

I also didn’t say that Nylander didn’t show any progression... I said all the other mentioned players showed MORE production... Please don’t put words in my mouth...

Two 60 point seasons is better than one 50 point season and a 60 point season, it's sort of weird even having to say that. I think it's the illusion of progress and stagnation.

Lets say this is the situation between two different players
Player A
Year 1 30 points, year 2 40 points, year 3 50 points

Player B
Year 1 60 points, year 2 50 point, year 3 60 points

Would you rather player A or B?

 

[DarkKnight]

oh cmon you cant be serious, Nylander lead the team in dzone exits and ozone entries (up there in the league I believe) he isn't all about points Deserves under $6 Eherls isn't great 2way player either nylander has comparables if you believe under $6M long term id say you are clouded in your judgment.

I said 6 in my post, but not much more. I've always felt 6 to max 6.5, and that's on the longer term deal. My comment was perhaps Dubas is still in the 5's playing hardball, which I'm fine with. Hope he does the same with all of them.

 

[DarkKnight]

no im not saying that, im saying nylander doesn't need Matthews as much as people like to pretend he does that is it. Nothing on Matthews or his abilities. People pretend like nylander wouldn't have a career without Matthews sometimes

Agreed, Nylander would be a hell of a player regardless.

 

[Walshy7]

I said 6 in my post, but not much more. I've always felt 6 to max 6.5, and that's on the longer term deal. My comment was perhaps Dubas is still in the 5's playing hardball, which I'm fine with. Hope he does the same with all of them.

you said I don't think he deserves anything over $6M, im sorry I read that as a top end of $6M and under is reasonable. I misunderstood your post I guess

 

[Walshy7]

Agreed, Nylander would be a hell of a player regardless.

the fact is they hit it off together when they started and very quickly became an elite duo, and rightfully have been together ever since.

 

[hotpaws]

I said 6 in my post, but not much more. I've always felt 6 to max 6.5, and that's on the longer term deal. My comment was perhaps Dubas is still in the 5's playing hardball, which I'm fine with. Hope he does the same with all of them.

so open up the vault for Tavares but play hard ball with the players who were responsible for turning the team around ?

yea that'll make for a happy locker room

 

[diceman934]

Two 60 point seasons is better than one 50 point season and a 60 point season, it's sort of weird even having to say that. I think it's the illusion of progress and stagnation.

Lets say this is the situation between two different players
Player A
Year 1 30 points, year 2 40 points, year 3 50 points

Player B
Year 1 60 points, year 2 50 point, year 3 60 points

Would you rather player A or B?

Very incomplete data. Where did each team finish in points. Where did the player finish in points in his team. What else do each player bring to the team. Without context your senario is impossible to answer.

 

[666]

so you are saying instead of 2 61 points seasons (where nylander increased his 5 on5 points but ~13 points) is not as a good as 50 points then 61 points? haha you are insane if you believe that.

-same number of points but better 5 on 5 scoring
-same number of points but 20 games without Matthews if you believe in the crap about Matthews carrying nylander.
- played 15~ games at C

you do know hockey isn't all about points right?

you are right no progression at all.

3 goals 8 assists in 20 games when Matthews was out.

 

[DarkKnight]

so open up the vault for Tavares but play hard ball with the players who were responsible for turning the team around ?

yea that'll make for a happy locker room

Tavares took less, and he’s a UFA that’s how it goes. He’s also a proven elite talent who’s done it for years, nobody in that room will begrudge him anything. We’re trying to win a cup, and manage a cap.

 

[hotpaws]

Tavares took less, and he’s a UFA that’s how it goes. He’s also a proven elite talent who’s done it for years, nobody in that room will begrudge him anything. We’re trying to win a cup, and manage a cap.

maybe someone can post a link where Wilson said he offered 13m per because i have yet to see anything come out of the Sharks organization about what they offered and all i've heard is the standard "he took less money" line you here after every high priced ufa signs

Willie's agent should get a rumored floated that he's been offered a 10.5 m x 7 yr offer sheet but likes Toronto and wants to give them a home team discount so he'll sign for the discounted rate of 8.5 m x 8 yrs". So basically the "JT discount" .

 

[6ix]

This is an excellent opportunity for the leafs to deal Nylander in a package for a signed Karlsson.

I say this if Nylander’s agent wants anything more then 6.75 mill a year.

 

[DarkKnight]

maybe someone can post a link where Wilson said he offered 13m per because i have yet to see anything come out of the Sharks organization about what they offered and all i've heard is the standard "he took less money" line you here after every high priced ufa signs

Willie's agent should get a rumored floated that he's been offered a 10.5 m x 7 yr offer sheet but likes Toronto and wants to give them a home team discount so he'll sign for the discounted rate of 8.5 m x 8 yrs". So basically the "JT discount" .

Sound childish.

 

[rent free]

Sound childish.

or you can prove him wrong.