Nylander Chronicles Part XXVI: Who caves first? Nylander, Dubas, or Bert?

[Suntouchable13]

I disagree with that but that's okay.

Everybody has their own definition, I guess. To me, elite is Hall of Fame level.

 

[Mess]

This is obviously, a good thing that Dubas isn't going to overpay ... means Matthews can't come in at anything over 11 million.

McDavid got 12.5 after winning major trophies. While the Calder is a major trophy it is based on the play of rookies a small population set of players.

Marner's going to come in at less than 10, he has no leverage and Draisaitl a center with 77 points got 8.5.

Lots argue that Nylander doesn't have the comparables to demand >$ 7 mil but does Auston have them or is between McDavid and Eichel and close to JT a granted?

 

[AllDay28]

Generational
Elite
Great
Good
Average
Below Average
Bad

seems like a simple system.

 

[MapleLeafs77]

Lots argue that Nylander doesn't have the comparables to demand >$ 7 mil but does Auston have them or is between McDavid and Eichel and close to JT a granted?

Matthews to me is better than JT and Eichel. In my opinion.....by quite a lot.

 

[WickedPegJets]

As far as I am concerned, William Nylander has burned the Leafs' bridge and should he sign before December 1, 2018, Dubas should trade him for a very good defensive defenseman for that is the Leafs' biggest need.

If it appears that he isn't going to sign with the Leafs, GMs around the league should be notified that he's available for an immediate trade.

 

[WickedPegJets]

Matthews to me is better than JT and Eichel. In my opinion.....by quite a lot.

Auston's main problem last season and this season so far is that he misses 20 games per season and although the players say to the media they'll cover for his absence, the reality is that opponents are doubling up on Tavares and Kadri's slow start is impacting the offence that desperately needs Nylander.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Generational
Elite
Great
Good
Average
Below Average
Bad

seems like a simple system.

There is no "system", let alone a simple system as you suggest. No idea how any agreement could be made on the definitions of "great" versus "elite" as an example. We like Nylander and he is a very good player. That's about it and very few would disagree with that I'd think.

 

[ULF_55]

Lots argue that Nylander doesn't have the comparables to demand >$ 7 mil but does Auston have them or is between McDavid and Eichel and close to JT a granted?

Matthews' comparables are who? Definitely not McDavid unless he comes back and grabs a couple trophies and gets a majority votes as league MVP.

Realistically, if we're basing on comparables, a bunch of players who PPG last year, which is what Matthews is right now. Kucherov a 100 point player got 9.5 as UFA. Gaudreau a 78 point player got 6.75.

Again, you have to be consistent, if we're applying comparables then we're applying comparables.

Tavares 11
Matthews 10
Marner 8
Nylander 7
Total 36

That makes much more sense if some are claiming you have to be near compables right?

Much better than just being random, like some of the thoughts we get here.

Matthews 13.5
Tavares 11
Marner 9
Nylander 6.5
Total 40

 

[Critical13]

Generational
Elite - top 5% (Matthews, Kucherov, McDavid, Hedman)
Great - 6-20% (Tavares, Scheifele, McAvoy)
Good - 21% - 40% (Kadri, Schenn, Ellis)
Average - 41-60% (Eberle, Patrick, Gardiner)
Below Average - 60-80% (Bozak, Marleau, Myers)
Bad 81-95% (Brown, Guance, Ozhigahanov)
AHL quality - 96-100% (Ennis? Sobotka? Carrick?)

seems like a simple system.

I like it! I added my %s to it loosely based on a similar system we use in our business for ranking products. 5-15-20-20-20-15-5.

I think he can be in that Great tier.

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Gramps here. The Leafs have not negotiated hard with Matty. As per Lou the elc negotiation lasted 10 minutes. He got max deal. It will be same thing this go around. He is their guy to win the Cup. There will be no issues on that 8 year contract and it will be spun in best light for team and player. JT was told same by both Matthews and Leafs. you can bank on that one thats why he signed here. I think he is going to get a lot more than everyone thinks on here. When you are a top 5 player in NHL and the Leafs best thats the way it goes.

Marner and Nylander will not get same treatment. Neither dad/agent may like it but life's not always fair. I don't know where the numbers will end up but Leafs will use comparables to negotiate those deals. No team is giving up 4 first rounders for either guy. The Leafs know it, the NHL knows it and thats that. If they both bridge well thats fine too.

 

[beleaf101]

As far as I am concerned, William Nylander has burned the Leafs' bridge and should he sign before December 1, 2018, Dubas should trade him for a very good defensive defenseman for that is the Leafs' biggest need.

If it appears that he isn't going to sign with the Leafs, GMs around the league should be notified that he's available for an immediate trade.

 

[WickedPegJets]

Players with loads of skills who play for the Leafs and are up for a contract extension must take into account that a home discount is asked of them. Management will spin the fact that endorsements are more prevalent with players playing in Toronto the Canadian holy grail of hockey.

 

[Ciao]

As far as I am concerned, William Nylander has burned the Leafs' bridge and should he sign before December 1, 2018, Dubas should trade him for a very good defensive defenseman for that is the Leafs' biggest need.

If it appears that he isn't going to sign with the Leafs, GMs around the league should be notified that he's available for an immediate trade.

Yeah, sounds exactly like the Trouba hold out.

How could a player ever come back to the team after holding out like that?

 

[Ciao]

Players with loads of skills who play for the Leafs and are up for a contract extension must take into account that a home discount is asked of them. Management will spin the fact that endorsements are more prevalent with players playing in Toronto the Canadian holy grail of hockey.

You worry too much about the Leafs.

The Leafs have good management and they will be fine.

Enjoy your own team, and bring your ideas to the main boards. You aren't welcome here.

 

[Mattavarner]

Just trade him for Pesce as a base at this point.
Half the fanbase (including me) has soured on him because of all this, Pesce would allow us the cap space to keep guys like Kapanen long term as well, instead of losing them as cap casualties.
If you can get Pesce + Gauthier for Nylander, or maybe a 1st instead of Gauthier if Carolina likes him enough, you do it

 

[Joey Hoser]

Elite? Maybe we use this term too lightly?

Crosby's 1st year - 102 points
Ovechkin's 1st year - 106 points
McDavid's 2nd year (limited games because of injury in his 1st year) - 100 points

Nylander has about 60% of the production of those elite players listed above. Is that elite and/or elite "potential" (interesting choice of words used perhaps to muddy the water)?

Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer in the history of the game, Crosby is the best player of a generation and McDavid the next. These are generational players.

"Muddy the water"? Yeah dude I'm part of a conspiracy attempting to manipulate public perception of Nylander into being a better player than he is, for... reasons.

 

[nuck]

It would save about 85 to 200k max.

So probably not a genius.

Here is the math off an earlier Cap Friendly re-posting. $400k +is a valuable outcome. But yes, probably not a genius, and I don't see Willie taking the $6.5.

"So lets go for the extreme here. There are 186 days in the 18/19 NHL season. The player has to be signed no later than November 30th or he's ineligible for the season so lets assume a November 30th signing. That leaves 128 days he'd be signed for. Lets guess a contract of 7 x 6.5 with the following breakdown.

1st year: 3.5 million(all by 650k in signing bonuses)
years 2-7: 7 million

The cap hit in years 2-7 would be...

($650,000 * 128/186 + $42,000,000)/7 = $6,063,901.69

This year it would be...

$6,063,901.69 * 186/124 = $9,095,852.53

The Leafs in the most extreme case could shave $436,099 off the cap hit of Nylander for the future tight years essentially by tacking it onto the current year as an extra 2.5 millino now, and by having Nylander hold out."

 

[WickedPegJets]

Yeah, sounds exactly like the Trouba hold out.

How could a player ever come back to the team after holding out like that?

Speaking of Jacob Trouba, he won his arbitration case and the Jets gave him a 1-year contract rather than release him to free agency. I believe he still wants to play closer to his birth state of Michigan and Toronto is close to Michigan.

Surely, Kyle Dubas has an eye on Trouba bolstering up the defence which is the Leafs' weakness. The Jets will demand a big return for Trouba and Duba has William Nylander to offer.

 

[WickedPegJets]

Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer in the history of the game, Crosby is the best player of a generation and McDavid the next. These are generational players.

Wayne Gretzky is the NHL's greatest point producer.

 

[beleaf101]

You don't trade him unsigned. Willie signs at the Leaf number or he sits. Marner and Matthews camp are watching this. If Dubas caves to Willie the Marner and Matthews camp will ask for the moon and will get it from the Leafs or someone else.

You tell Willie camp if want to play in the NHL sign at our number or learn to speak Russian. You are a RFA .

This is as much as a agent testing a rookie GM as much as anytimg.

 

[Coatsy79]

Maybe Aho has a mindset of taking less to allow the Canes to sign players to improve the team's chances of success?

If only Willie was the same eh

 

[nuck]

There is no "system", let alone a simple system as you suggest. No idea how any agreement could be made on the definitions of "great" versus "elite" as an example. We like Nylander and he is a very good player. That's about it and very few would disagree with that I'd think.

Yes especially when you consider how over-used the term generational has become. I honestly remember when that adjective was only used for Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux.

 

[WickedPegJets]

You don't trade him unsigned. Willie signs at the Leaf number or he sits. Marner and Matthews camp are watching this. If Dubas caves to Willie the Marner and Matthews camp will ask for the moon and will get it from the Leafs or someone else.

You tell Willie camp if want to play in the NHL sign at our number or learn to speak Russian. You are a RFA .

This is as much as a agent testing a rookie GM as much as anytimg.

Leafs management desires to sign Nylander to a bridge deal say for 3 years while Nylander's father has set his sight on a 7 or 8-year deal at $7 or $8M annually. His father's stance is unrealistic.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Yes especially when you consider how over-used the term generational has become. I honestly remember when that adjective was only used for Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux.

The term generational should be mean the best of a generation, no?

I mean, that's what the word implies. So add Crosby, probably McDavid...

 

[Spirit of 67]

Trouba didn't end his holdout until Nov. 7.... and his contract was only 3 million per season (bridge). If Winnipeg, of all organizations, didn't have to cave... then we don't and won't.

Neither Willy or Trouba are/were holding out. With no contract, they're ineligible to play.